Uncertainty avoidance: public sector clients and procurement selection

Purpose: Choosing the appropriate procurement system for construction projects is a complex and challenging task for clients particularly when professional advice has not been sought. To assist with the decision making process, a range of procurement selection tools and techniques have been developed by both academic and industry bodies. Public sector clients in Western Australia (WA) remain uncertain about the pairing of procurement method to bespoke construction project and how this decision will ultimately impact upon project success. This paper examines ‘how and why’ a public sector agency selected particular procurement methods. · Methodology/Approach: An analysis of two focus group workshops (with 18 senior project and policy managers involved with procurement selection) is reported upon · Findings: The traditional lump sum (TLS) method is still the preferred procurement path even though alternative forms such as design and construct, public-private-partnerships could optimize the project outcome. Paradoxically, workshop participants agreed that alternative procurement forms should be considered, but an embedded culture of uncertainty avoidance invariably meant that TLS methods were selected. Senior managers felt that only a limited number of contractors have the resources and experience to deliver projects using the nontraditional methods considered. · Research limitations/implications: The research identifies a need to develop a framework that public sector clients can use to select an appropriate procurement method. A procurement framework should be able to guide the decision-maker rather than provide a prescriptive solution. Learning from previous experiences with regard to procurement selection will further provide public sector clients with knowledge about how to best deliver their projects.

Decision support system architecture for consultant selection

Decision Support System (DSS) has played a significant role in construction project management. This has been proven that a lot of DSS systems have been implemented throughout the whole construction project life cycle. However, most research only concentrated in model development and left few fundamental aspects in Information System development. As a result, the output of researches are complicated to be adopted by lay person particularly those whom come from a non-technical background. Hence, a DSS should hide the abstraction and complexity of DSS models by providing a more useful system which incorporated user oriented system. To demonstrate a desirable architecture of DSS particularly in public sector planning, we aim to propose a generic DSS framework for consultant selection. It will focus on the engagement of engineering consultant for irrigation and drainage infrastructure. The DSS framework comprise from operational decision to strategic decision level. The expected result of the research will provide a robust framework of DSS for consultant selection. In addition, the paper also discussed other issues that related to the existing DSS framework by integrating enabling technologies from computing. This paper is based on the preliminary case study conducted via literature review and archival documents at Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) Malaysia. The paper will directly affect to the enhancement of consultant pre-qualification assessment and selection tools. By the introduction of DSS in this area, the selection process will be more efficient in time, intuitively aided qualitative judgment, and transparent decision through aggregation of decision among stakeholders.

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Simulation and development of a mock circulation loop with variable compliance

Heart disease is attributed as the highest cause of death in the world. Although this could be alleviated by heart transplantation, there is a chronic shortage of donor hearts and so mechanical solutions are being considered. Currently, many Ventricular Assist Devices (VADs) are being developed worldwide in an effort to increase life expectancy and quality of life for end stage heart failure patients. Current pre-clinical testing methods for VADs involve laboratory testing using Mock Circulation Loops (MCLs), and in vivo testing in animal models. The research and development of highly accurate MCLs is vital to the continuous improvement of VAD performance. The first objective of this study was to develop and validate a mathematical model of a MCL. This model could then be used in the design and construction of a variable compliance chamber to improve the performance of an existing MCL as well as form the basis for a new miniaturised MCL. An extensive review of literature was carried out on MCLs and mathematical modelling of their function. A mathematical model of a MCL was then created in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. This model included variable features such as resistance, fluid inertia and volumes (resulting from the pipe lengths and diameters); compliance of Windkessel chambers, atria and ventricles; density of both fluid and compressed air applied to the system; gravitational effects on vertical columns of fluid; and accurately modelled actuators controlling the ventricle contraction. This model was then validated using the physical properties and pressure and flow traces produced from a previously developed MCL. A variable compliance chamber was designed to reproduce parameters determined by the mathematical model. The function of the variability was achieved by controlling the transmural pressure across a diaphragm to alter the compliance of the system. An initial prototype was tested in a previously developed MCL, and a variable level of arterial compliance was successfully produced; however, the complete range of compliance values required for accurate physiological representation was not able to be produced with this initial design. The mathematical model was then used to design a smaller physical mock circulation loop, with the tubing sizes adjusted to produce accurate pressure and flow traces whilst having an appropriate frequency response characteristic. The development of the mathematical model greatly assisted the general design of an in vitro cardiovascular device test rig, while the variable compliance chamber allowed simple and real-time manipulation of MCL compliance to allow accurate transition between a variety of physiological conditions. The newly developed MCL produced an accurate design of a mechanical representation of the human circulatory system for in vitro cardiovascular device testing and education purposes. The continued improvement of VAD test rigs is essential if VAD design is to improve, and hence improve quality of life and life expectancy for heart failure patients.

Improved GMM-based speaker verification using SVM-driven impostor dataset selection

The problem of impostor dataset selection for GMM-based speaker verification is addressed through the recently proposed data-driven background dataset refinement technique. The SVM-based refinement technique selects from a candidate impostor dataset those examples that are most frequently selected as support vectors when training a set of SVMs on a development corpus. This study demonstrates the versatility of dataset refinement in the task of selecting suitable impostor datasets for use in GMM-based speaker verification. The use of refined Z- and T-norm datasets provided performance gains of 15% in EER in the NIST 2006 SRE over the use of heuristically selected datasets. The refined datasets were shown to generalise well to the unseen data of the NIST 2008 SRE.

Data-driven impostor selection for T-norm score normalisation and the background dataset in SVM-based speaker verification

A data-driven background dataset refinement technique was recently proposed for SVM based speaker verification. This method selects a refined SVM background dataset from a set of candidate impostor examples after individually ranking examples by their relevance. This paper extends this technique to the refinement of the T-norm dataset for SVM-based speaker verification. The independent refinement of the background and T-norm datasets provides a means of investigating the sensitivity of SVM-based speaker verification performance to the selection of each of these datasets. Using refined datasets provided improvements of 13% in min. DCF and 9% in EER over the full set of impostor examples on the 2006 SRE corpus with the majority of these gains due to refinement of the T-norm dataset. Similar trends were observed for the unseen data of the NIST 2008 SRE.

Robust video stabilisation algorithm using feature point selection and delta optical flow

In this study, the authors propose a novel video stabilisation algorithm for mobile platforms with moving objects in the scene. The quality of videos obtained from mobile platforms, such as unmanned airborne vehicles, suffers from jitter caused by several factors. In order to remove this undesired jitter, the accurate estimation of global motion is essential. However it is difficult to estimate global motions accurately from mobile platforms due to increased estimation errors and noises. Additionally, large moving objects in the video scenes contribute to the estimation errors. Currently, only very few motion estimation algorithms have been developed for video scenes collected from mobile platforms, and this paper shows that these algorithms fail when there are large moving objects in the scene. In this study, a theoretical proof is provided which demonstrates that the use of delta optical flow can improve the robustness of video stabilisation in the presence of large moving objects in the scene. The authors also propose to use sorted arrays of local motions and the selection of feature points to separate outliers from inliers. The proposed algorithm is tested over six video sequences, collected from one fixed platform, four mobile platforms and one synthetic video, of which three contain large moving objects. Experiments show our proposed algorithm performs well to all these video sequences.

Numerical methods for the variable-order fractional advection-diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term

In this paper, we consider a variable-order fractional advection-diffusion equation with a nonlinear source term on a finite domain. Explicit and implicit Euler approximations for the equation are proposed. Stability and convergence of the methods are discussed. Moreover, we also present a fractional method of lines, a matrix transfer technique, and an extrapolation method for the equation. Some numerical examples are given, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis.

Stability and convergence of a new explicit finite-difference approximation for the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider the variable-order nonlinear fractional diffusion equation View the MathML source where xRα(x,t) is a generalized Riesz fractional derivative of variable order View the MathML source and the nonlinear reaction term f(u,x,t) satisfies the Lipschitz condition |f(u1,x,t)-f(u2,x,t)|less-than-or-equals, slantL|u1-u2|. A new explicit finite-difference approximation is introduced. The convergence and stability of this approximation are proved. Finally, some numerical examples are provided to show that this method is computationally efficient. The proposed method and techniques are applicable to other variable-order nonlinear fractional differential equations.

Recombinant protein production using a Tobacco yellow dwarf virus-based episomal expression vector : control of Rep activity

Over the past decade, plants have been used as expression hosts for the production of pharmaceutically important and commercially valuable proteins. Plants offer many advantages over other expression systems such as lower production costs, rapid scale up of production, similar post-translational modification as animals and the low likelihood of contamination with animal pathogens, microbial toxins or oncogenic sequences. However, improving recombinant protein yield remains one of the greatest challenges to molecular farming. In-Plant Activation (InPAct) is a newly developed technology that offers activatable and high-level expression of heterologous proteins in plants. InPAct vectors contain the geminivirus cis elements essential for rolling circle replication (RCR) and are arranged such that the gene of interest is only expressed in the presence of the cognate viral replication-associated protein (Rep). The expression of Rep in planta may be controlled by a tissue-specific, developmentally regulated or chemically inducible promoter such that heterologous protein accumulation can be spatially and temporally controlled. One of the challenges for the successful exploitation of InPAct technology is the control of Rep expression as even very low levels of this protein can reduce transformation efficiency, cause abnormal phenotypes and premature activation of the InPAct vector in regenerated plants. Tight regulation over transgene expression is also essential if expressing cytotoxic products. Unfortunately, many tissue-specific and inducible promoters are unsuitable for controlling expression of Rep due to low basal activity in the absence of inducer or in tissues other than the target tissue. This PhD aimed to control Rep activity through the production of single chain variable fragments (scFvs) specific to the motif III of Tobacco yellow dwarf virus (TbYDV) Rep. Due to the important role played by the conserved motif III in the RCR, it was postulated that such scFvs can be used to neutralise the activity of the low amount of Rep expressed from a “leaky” inducible promoter, thus preventing activation of the TbYDV-based InPAct vector until intentional induction. Such scFvs could also offer the potential to confer partial or complete resistance to TbYDV, and possibly heterologous viruses as motif III is conserved between geminiviruses. Studies were first undertaken to determine the levels of TbYDV Rep and TbYDV replication-associated protein A (RepA) required for optimal transgene expression from a TbYDV-based InPAct vector. Transient assays in a non-regenerable Nicotiana tabacum (NT-1) cell line were undertaken using a TbYDV-based InPAct vector containing the uidA reporter gene (encoding GUS) in combination with TbYDV Rep and RepA under the control of promoters with high (CaMV 35S) or low (Banana bunchy top virus DNA-R, BT1) activity. The replication enhancer protein of Tomato leaf curl begomovirus (ToLCV), REn, was also used in some co-bombardment experiments to examine whether RepA could be substituted by a replication enhancer from another geminivirus genus. GUS expression was observed both quantitatively and qualitatively by fluorometric and histochemical assays, respectively. GUS expression from the TbYDV-based InPAct vector was found to be greater when Rep was expected to be expressed at low levels (BT1 promoter) rather than high levels (35S promoter). GUS expression was further enhanced when Rep and RepA were co-bombarded with a low ratio of Rep to RepA. Substituting TbYDV RepA with ToLCV REn also enhanced GUS expression but more importantly highest GUS expression was observed when cells were co-transformed with expression vectors directing low levels of Rep and high levels of RepA irrespective of the level of REn. In this case, GUS expression was approximately 74-fold higher than that from a non-replicating vector. The use of different terminators, namely CaMV 35S and Nos terminators, in InPAct vectors was found to influence GUS expression. In the presence of Rep, GUS expression was greater using pInPActGUS-Nos rather than pInPActGUS-35S. The only instance of GUS expression being greater from vectors containing the 35S terminator was when comparing expression from cells transformed with Rep, RepA and REnexpressing vectors and either non-replicating vectors, p35SGS-Nos or p35SGS-35S. This difference was most likely caused by an interaction of viral replication proteins with each other and the terminators. These results indicated that (i) the level of replication associated proteins is critical to high transgene expression, (ii) the choice of terminator within the InPAct vector may affect expression levels and (iii) very low levels of Rep can activate InPAct vectors hence controlling its activity is critical. Prior to generating recombinant scFvs, a recombinant TbYDV Rep was produced in E. coli to act as a control to enable the screening for Rep-specific antibodies. A bacterial expression vector was constructed to express recombinant TbYDV Rep with an Nterminal His-tag (N-His-Rep). Despite investigating several purification techniques including Ni-NTA, anion exchange, hydrophobic interaction and size exclusion chromatography, N-His-Rep could only be partially purified using a Ni-NTA column under native conditions. Although it was not certain that this recombinant N-His-Rep had the same conformation as the native TbYDV Rep and was functional, results from an electromobility shift assay (EMSA) showed that N-His-Rep was able to interact with the TbYDV LIR and was, therefore, possibly functional. Two hybridoma cell lines from mice, immunised with a synthetic peptide containing the TbYDV Rep motif III amino acid sequence, were generated by GenScript (USA). Monoclonal antibodies secreted by the two hybridoma cell lines were first screened against denatured N-His-Rep in Western analysis. After demonstrating their ability to bind N-His-Rep, two scFvs (scFv1 and scFv2) were generated using a PCR-based approach. Whereas the variable heavy chain (VH) from both cell lines could be amplified, only the variable light chain (VL) from cell line 2 was amplified. As a result, scFv1 contained VH and VL from cell line 1, whereas scFv2 contained VH from cell line 2 and VL from cell line 1. Both scFvs were first expressed in E. coli in order to evaluate their affinity to the recombinant TbYDV N-His-Rep. The preliminary results demonstrated that both scFvs were able to bind to the denatured N-His-Rep. However, EMSAs revealed that only scFv2 was able to bind to native N-His-Rep and prevent it from interacting with the TbYDV LIR. Each scFv was cloned into plant expression vectors and co-bombarded into NT-1 cells with the TbYDV-based InPAct GUS expression vector and pBT1-Rep to examine whether the scFvs could prevent Rep from mediating RCR. Although it was expected that the addition of the scFvs would result in decreased GUS expression, GUS expression was found to slightly increase. This increase was even more pronounced when the scFvs were targeted to the cell nucleus by the inclusion of the Simian virus 40 large T antigen (SV40) nuclear localisation signal (NLS). It was postulated that the scFvs were binding to a proportion of Rep, leaving a small amount available to mediate RCR. The outcomes of this project provide evidence that very high levels of recombinant protein can theoretically be expressed using InPAct vectors with judicious selection and control of viral replication proteins. However, the question of whether the scFvs generated in this project have sufficient affinity for TbYDV Rep to prevent its activity in a stably transformed plant remains unknown. It may be that other scFvs with different combinations of VH and VL may have greater affinity for TbYDV Rep. Such scFvs, when expressed at high levels in planta, might also confer resistance to TbYDV and possibly heterologous geminiviruses.

The applicability of biased estimation in model and model order selection

Biased estimation has the advantage of reducing the mean squared error (MSE) of an estimator. The question of interest is how biased estimation affects model selection. In this paper, we introduce biased estimation to a range of model selection criteria. Specifically, we analyze the performance of the minimum description length (MDL) criterion based on biased and unbiased estimation and compare it against modern model selection criteria such as Kay's conditional model order estimator (CME), the bootstrap and the more recently proposed hook-and-loop resampling based model selection. The advantages and limitations of the considered techniques are discussed. The results indicate that, in some cases, biased estimators can slightly improve the selection of the correct model. We also give an example for which the CME with an unbiased estimator fails, but could regain its power when a biased estimator is used.

Latent variable models in statistical genetics

Understanding the complexities that are involved in the genetics of multifactorial diseases is still a monumental task. In addition to environmental factors that can influence the risk of disease, there is also a number of other complicating factors. Genetic variants associated with age of disease onset may be different from those variants associated with overall risk of disease, and variants may be located in positions that are not consistent with the traditional protein coding genetic paradigm. Latent Variable Models are well suited for the analysis of genetic data. A latent variable is one that we do not directly observe, but which is believed to exist or is included for computational or analytic convenience in a model. This thesis presents a mixture of methodological developments utilising latent variables, and results from case studies in genetic epidemiology and comparative genomics. Epidemiological studies have identified a number of environmental risk factors for appendicitis, but the disease aetiology of this oft thought useless vestige remains largely a mystery. The effects of smoking on other gastrointestinal disorders are well documented, and in light of this, the thesis investigates the association between smoking and appendicitis through the use of latent variables. By utilising data from a large Australian twin study questionnaire as both cohort and case-control, evidence is found for the association between tobacco smoking and appendicitis. Twin and family studies have also found evidence for the role of heredity in the risk of appendicitis. Results from previous studies are extended here to estimate the heritability of age-at-onset and account for the eect of smoking. This thesis presents a novel approach for performing a genome-wide variance components linkage analysis on transformed residuals from a Cox regression. This method finds evidence for a dierent subset of genes responsible for variation in age at onset than those associated with overall risk of appendicitis. Motivated by increasing evidence of functional activity in regions of the genome once thought of as evolutionary graveyards, this thesis develops a generalisation to the Bayesian multiple changepoint model on aligned DNA sequences for more than two species. This sensitive technique is applied to evaluating the distributions of evolutionary rates, with the finding that they are much more complex than previously apparent. We show strong evidence for at least 9 well-resolved evolutionary rate classes in an alignment of four Drosophila species and at least 7 classes in an alignment of four mammals, including human. A pattern of enrichment and depletion of genic regions in the profiled segments suggests they are functionally significant, and most likely consist of various functional classes. Furthermore, a method of incorporating alignment characteristics representative of function such as GC content and type of mutation into the segmentation model is developed within this thesis. Evidence of fine-structured segmental variation is presented.

Data-driven background dataset selection for SVM-based speaker verification

The recently proposed data-driven background dataset refinement technique provides a means of selecting an informative background for support vector machine (SVM)-based speaker verification systems. This paper investigates the characteristics of the impostor examples in such highly-informative background datasets. Data-driven dataset refinement individually evaluates the suitability of candidate impostor examples for the SVM background prior to selecting the highest-ranking examples as a refined background dataset. Further, the characteristics of the refined dataset were analysed to investigate the desired traits of an informative SVM background. The most informative examples of the refined dataset were found to consist of large amounts of active speech and distinctive language characteristics. The data-driven refinement technique was shown to filter the set of candidate impostor examples to produce a more disperse representation of the impostor population in the SVM kernel space, thereby reducing the number of redundant and less-informative examples in the background dataset. Furthermore, data-driven refinement was shown to provide performance gains when applied to the difficult task of refining a small candidate dataset that was mis-matched to the evaluation conditions.

Exploiting multiple feature sets in data-driven impostor dataset selection for speaker verification

This study assesses the recently proposed data-driven background dataset refinement technique for speaker verification using alternate SVM feature sets to the GMM supervector features for which it was originally designed. The performance improvements brought about in each trialled SVM configuration demonstrate the versatility of background dataset refinement. This work also extends on the originally proposed technique to exploit support vector coefficients as an impostor suitability metric in the data-driven selection process. Using support vector coefficients improved the performance of the refined datasets in the evaluation of unseen data. Further, attempts are made to exploit the differences in impostor example suitability measures from varying features spaces to provide added robustness.