Consumer welfare effects of introducing and labeling genetically modified food

Non-hypothetical valuations obtained from experimental auctions in three United States and two European locations were used to calculate welfare effects of introducing and labeling of genetically modified food. Under certain assumptions, we find that introduction of genetically modified food has been welfare enhancing, on average, for United States consumers but not so for Europeans and while mandatory labeling has been beneficial for European consumers, such a policy would be detrimental in the United States. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The loss of Normandy and the invention of Terre Normannorum, 1204

The conquest of Normandy by Philip Augustus of France effectively ended the ‘Anglo-Norman’ realm created in 1066, forcing cross-Channel landholders to choose between their English and their Norman estates. The best source for the resulting tenurial upheaval in England is the Rotulus de valore terrarum Normannorum, a list of seized properties and their former holders, and this article seeks to expand our understanding of the impact of the loss of Normandy through a detailed analysis of this document. First, it demonstrates that the compilation of the roll can be divided into two distinct stages, the first containing valuations taken before royal justices in June 1204 and enrolled before the end of July, and the second consisting of returns to orders for the valuation of particular properties issued during the summer and autumn, as part of the process by which these estates were committed to new holders. Second, study of the roll and other documentary sources permits a better understanding of the order for the seizure of the lands of those who had remained in Normandy, the text of which does not survive. This establishes that this royal order was issued in late May 1204 and, further, that it enjoined the temporary seizure rather than the permanent confiscation of these lands. Moreover, the seizure was not retrospective and covers a specific window of time in 1204. On the one hand, this means that the roll is far from a comprehensive record of terre Normannorum. On the other hand, it is possible to correlate the identities of those Anglo-Norman landholders whose English estates were seized with the military progress of the French king through the duchy in May and June and thus shed new light on the campaign of 1204. Third, the article considers the initial management of the seized estates and highlights the fact that, when making arrangements for the these lands, John was primarily concerned to maintain his freedom of manoeuvre, since he was not prepared to accept that Normandy had been lost for good.

German open ended funds: was there a valuation problem?

In late 2005, a number of German open ended funds suffered significant withdrawals by unit holders. The crisis was precipitated by a long term bear market in German property investment and the fact that these funds offered short term liquidity to unit holders but had low levels of liquidity in the fund. A more controversial suggestion was that the crisis was exacerbated by a perception that the valuations of the fund were too infrequent and inaccurate. As units are priced by reference to these valuations with no secondary market, the valuation process is central to the process. There is no direct evidence that these funds were over-valued but there is circumstantial evidence and this paper examines the indirect evidence of the process to see whether the hypothesis that valuation is an issue for the German funds holds any credibility. It also discusses whether there is a wider issue for other funds of this nature or whether it is a parochial problem confined to Germany. The conclusions are that there is reason to believe that German valuation processes make over-valuation in a recession more likely than in other countries and that more direct research into the German valuation system is required to identify the issues which need to be addressed to make the valuation system more trusted.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken apart from a single Guidance Note (GN5, RICS 2003) stressing the importance of recognising uncertainty in valuation but not proffering any particular solution. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.

Benchmarking and valuation issues in measuring depreciation for European office markets

Purpose – The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation-based data. These problems relate to inconsistent valuation regimes and the difficulties in finding appropriate benchmarks. Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopts a case study of seven major office locations around Europe and attempts to determine ten-year rental value depreciation rates based on a longitudinal approach using IPD, CBRE and BNP Paribas datasets. Findings – The depreciation rates range from a 5 per cent PA depreciation rate in Frankfurt to a 2 per cent appreciation rate in Stockholm. The results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in applying this method with inconsistent data. Research limitations/implications – The paper has methodological implications for measuring property investment depreciation and provides an example of the problems in adopting theoretically sound approaches with inconsistent information. Practical implications – Valuations play an important role in performance measurement and cross border investment decision making and, therefore, knowledge of inconsistency of valuation practice aids decision making and informs any application of valuation-based data in the attainment of depreciation rates. Originality/value – The paper provides new insights into the use of property market valuation data in a cross-border context, insights that previously had been anecdotal and unproven in nature.

Pricing short leases and break clauses using simulation methodology

This paper examines the changes in the length of commercial property leases over the last decade and presents an analysis of the consequent investment and occupational pricing implications for commercial property investmentsIt is argued that the pricing implications of a short lease to an investor are contingent upon the expected costs of the letting termination to the investor, the probability that the letting will be terminated and the volatility of rental values.The paper examines the key factors influencing these variables and presents a framework for incorporating their effects into pricing models.Approaches to their valuation derived from option pricing are critically assessed. It is argued that such models also tend to neglect the price effects of specific risk factors such as tenant circumstances and the terms of break clause. Specific risk factors have a significant bearing on the probability of letting termination and on the level of the resultant financial losses. The merits of a simulation methododology are examined for rental and capital valuations of short leases and properties with break clauses.It is concluded that in addition to the rigour of its internal logic, the success of any methodology is predicated upon the accuracy of the inputs.The lack of reliable data on patterns in, and incidence of, lease termination and the lack of reliable time series of historic property performance limit the efficacy of financial models.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Valuation 'accuracy' within the Right to Buy process

Based on surveys undertaken with local authorities and valuers who provide the valuations on which purchase prices for local authority houses under the Right to Buy are based, this paper reports on research which aims to establish the reasons for the differences between the initial valuations provided by the local authority valuers and those provided by the District Valuer on appeal. The paper reports on the reasons why tenants appeal the initial valuation and discusses issues of valuation accuracy, uncertainty and the different and imperfect data available to valuers employed by the organisations involved, as well as the factors within the valuation process, including the absence of any requirement to agree a value, which contribute to the different outcomes.

Area-wide development viability appraisals: the concept of threshold land value within a UK planning context

Area-wide development viability appraisals are undertaken to determine the economic feasibility of policy targets in relation to planning obligations. Essentially, development viability appraisals consist of a series of residual valuations of hypothetical development sites across a local authority area at a particular point in time. The valuations incorporate the estimated financial implications of the proposed level of planning obligations. To determine viability the output land values are benchmarked against threshold land value and therefore the basis on which this threshold is established and the level at which it is set is critical to development viability appraisal at the policy-setting (area-wide) level. Essentially it is an estimate of the value at which a landowner would be prepared to sell. If the estimated site values are higher than the threshold land value the policy target is considered viable. This paper investigates the effectiveness of existing methods of determining threshold land value. They will be tested against the relationship between development value and costs. Modelling reveals that threshold land value that is not related to shifts in development value renders marginal sites unviable and fails to collect proportionate planning obligations from high value/low cost sites. Testing the model against national average house prices and build costs reveals the high degree of volatility in residual land values over time and underlines the importance of making threshold land value relative to the main driver of this volatility, namely development value.

Contract cheating & the market in essays

We conduct the first empirical economic investigation of the decision to cheat by University students. We investigate student demand for essays, using hypothetical discrete choice experiments in conjunction with consequential Holt-Laury gambles to derive subjects risk preferences. Students stated willingness to participate in the essay market, and their valuation of purchased essays, vary with the characteristics of student and institutional environment. Risk preferring students, those working in a non-native language, and those believing they will attain a lower grade are willing to pay more. Purchase likelihoods and essay valuations decline as the probability of detection and associated penalty increase.

Financialisation, the valuation of investment property and the urban built environment in the UK

The financialisation literature has been criticised for its limited empirical base and its failure adequately to link the everyday world with that of high finance. The paper addresses these shortcomings by examining the calculative practice of property valuation. The way that valuations are performed affects their results and, therefore, the operation of the property market. The paper traces the evolving influence of finance capital on the valuation of commercial property in the UK by constructing a historiography of investment valuation since 1960. Traditional approaches to valuation have been increasingly challenged by those derived from financial economics. However, the former remains the dominant method for undertaking market valuation. Its grounding in comparison – a centring and standardising process – offers an explanation for some of the changes in the urban built environment that are ascribed to financialisation. This suggests that a more detailed and historically sensitive interpretation of financialisation is required.

Strategy Method (and payment cards)

Payment cards are a useful device to measure subjects’ preferences for a good and especially their willingness to pay for it. Together with some other similar elicitation methods, payment cards are especially appropriate for both hypothetical and incentive-compatible valuations of a good; a property which has prompted many researchers to use them in studies comparing stated and revealed valuations. The Strategy Method (hereafter SM) is a method based on a similar principle as that of payment cards, but is aimed at eliciting a subject’s full profile of responses to each of the strategies available to the rival(s).

Resilience in crisis reconsidered: the need for values against relativist ethics

The need for a reconsideration of resilience from both a positive and a normative point of view can be discussed using some of the lessons and conclusions drawn from individual resilience studied by psychologists in an educational context. The main point made in this article is that unless we want to approach resilience as a feature which is exogenously given in each population and society and whose dynamics, if any, are not subject to deliberate actions and policies, we need a framework for the evaluation of resilience as a social good. Relying on the hope that resilience is necessarily built in our societies as a force guaranteeing convergence to a socially desirable point of social evolution may be too optimistic and even counterproductive, because it may lead us to an inefficient or biased political and regulatory decision making. When the effect of policies and actions at a national or international level take into account the dynamic effect of such actions on resilience itself, one cannot blindly rely on the goodness of the process any more. This is mainly because resilience is not uniformly embodied in all societies and it does not have a globally positive social value by itself. The issue of socially valuing the options available beyond market-price valuations becomes fundamental in this context.

SIGMA THEORY AND TWISTED CONJUGACY CLASSES

Using Sigma theory we show that for large classes of groups G there is a subgroup H of finite index in Aut(G) such that for phi is an element of H the Reidemeister number R(phi) is infinite. This includes all finitely generated nonpolycyclic groups G that fall into one of the following classes: nilpotent-by-abelian groups of type FP(infinity); groups G/G `` of finite Prufer rank; groups G of type FP(2) without free nonabelian subgroups and with nonpolycyclic maximal metabelian quotient; some direct products of groups; or the pure symmetric automorphism group. Using a different argument we show that the result also holds for 1-ended nonabelian nonsurface limit groups. In some cases, such as with the generalized Thompson`s groups F(n,0) and their finite direct products, H = Aut(G).