The dynamics of threat, fear and intentionality in the conduct disorders: longitudinal findings in the children of women with post-natal depression

This paper considers how environmental threat may contribute to the child's use of avoidant strategies to regulate negative emotions, and how this may interact with high emotional reactivity to create vulnerability to conduct disorder symptoms. We report a study based on the hypothesis that interpreting others' behaviours in terms of their motives and emotions - using the intentional stance - promotes effective social action, but may lead to fear in threatful situations, and that inhibiting the intentional stance may reduce fear but promote conduct disorder symptoms. We assessed 5-year-olds' use of the intentional stance with an intentionality scale, contrasting high and low threat doll play scenarios. In a sample of 47 children of mothers with post-natal depression ( PND) and 35 controls, children rated as securely attached with their mothers at the age of 18 months were better able to preserve the intentional stance than insecure children in high threat scenarios, but not in low threat scenarios. Girls had higher intentionality scores than boys across all scenarios. Only intentionality in the high threat scenario was associated with teacher-rated conduct disorder symptoms, and only in the children of women with PND. Intentionality mediated the associations between attachment security and gender and conduct disorder symptoms in the PND group.

Understanding construction competitiveness: the contribution of system dynamics

Purpose – Construction sector competitiveness has been a subject of interest for many years. Research too often focuses on the means of overcoming the “barriers to change” as if such barriers were static entities. There has been little attempt to understand the dynamic inter-relationship between the differing factors which impinge upon construction sector competitiveness. The purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of taking a systems approach to construction competitiveness research. Design/methodology/approach – The system dynamics (SD) modelling methodology is described. This can provide practitioners with “microworlds” within which they can explore the dynamic effects of different policy decisions. The data underpinning the use of SD was provided by interviews and case study research which allowed an understanding of the context within which practitioners operate. Findings – The over-riding conclusion is that the SD methodology has been shown to be capable of providing a means to assess the forces which shape the sustained competitiveness of construction firms. As such, it takes the assessment of strategic policy analysis in the construction sector onto a higher plane. The need to collect data and make retrospective assessments of competitiveness and strategic performance at the statistical level is not now the only modus operandi available. Originality/value – The paper describes a novel research methodology which points towards an alternative research agenda for construction competitiveness research.

Molecular dynamics simulations of proteins: can the explicit water model be varied?

In molecular mechanics simulations of biological systems, the solvation water is typically represented by a default water model which is an integral part of the force field. Indeed, protein nonbonding parameters are chosen in order to obtain a balance between water-water and protein-water interactions and hence a reliable description of protein solvation. However, less attention has been paid to the question of whether the water model provides a reliable description of the water properties under the chosen simulation conditions, for which more accurate water models often exist. Here we consider the case of the CHARMM protein force field, which was parametrized for use with a modified TIP3P model. Using quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical calculations, we investigate whether the CHARMM force field can be used with other water models: TIP4P and TIP5P. Solvation properties of N-methylacetamide (NMA), other small solute molecules, and a small protein are examined. The results indicate differences in binding energies and minimum energy geometries, especially for TIP5P, but the overall description of solvation is found to be similar for all models tested. The results provide an indication that molecular mechanics simulations with the CHARMM force field can be performed with water models other than TIP3P, thus enabling an improved description of the solvent water properties.

Modeling entangled dynamics: comparison between stochastic single-chain and multichain models

To test the effectiveness of stochastic single-chain models in describing the dynamics of entangled polymers, we systematically compare one such model; the slip-spring model; to a multichain model solved using stochastic molecular dynamics(MD) simulations (the Kremer-Grest model). The comparison involves investigating if the single-chain model can adequately describe both a microscopic dynamical and a macroscopic rheological quantity for a range of chain lengths. Choosing a particular chain length in the slip-spring model, the parameter values that best reproduce the mean-square displacement of a group of monomers is determined by fitting toMDdata. Using the same set of parameters we then test if the predictions of the mean-square displacements for other chain lengths agree with the MD calculations. We followed this by a comparison of the time dependent stress relaxation moduli obtained from the two models for a range of chain lengths. After identifying a limitation of the original slip-spring model in describing the static structure of the polymer chain as seen in MD, we remedy this by introducing a pairwise repulsive potential between the monomers in the chains. Poor agreement of the mean-square monomer displacements at short times can be rectified by the use of generalized Langevin equations for the dynamics and resulted in significantly improved agreement.

A spectral performance model for the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (6-18µm)

A spectral performance model, designed to simulate the system spectral throughput for each of the 21 channels in the HIRDLS radiometer, is described. This model uses the measured spectral characteristics of each of the components in the optical train, appropriately corrected for their optical environment, to determine the end-to-end spectral throughput profile for each channel. This profile is then combined with the predicted thermal emission from the atmosphere, arising from the height of interest, to establish an in-band (wanted) to out-of-band (unwanted) radiance ratio. The results from the use of the model demonstrate that the instrument level radiometric requirements for the instrument will be achieved. The optical arrangement and spectral design requirements for filtering in the HIRDLS instrument are described together with a presentation of the performance achieved for the complete set of manufactured filters. Compliance of the predicted passband throughput model to the spectral positioning requi rements of the instrument is also demonstrated.

Molecular dynamics simulations of threadlike cetyltrimethylammonium chloride micelles: effects of sodium chloride and sodium salicylate salts

We use atomistic molecular dynamics simulations to probe the effects of added sodium chloride (NaCl) and sodium salicylate (NaSal) salts on the spherical-to-threadlike micelle shape transition in aqueous solutions of cetyltrimethylammonium chloride (CTAC) surfactants. Long threadlike micelles are found to be unstable and break into spherical micelles at low concentrations or NaCl, but remain stable for 20 ns above a threshold value of [NaCl] approximate to 3.0 M, which is about 2.5 times larger than the experimental salt concentration at which the transition between spherical and rodlike micelles occurs. The chloride counterions associate weakly oil the surface of the CTAC micelles with the degree of counterion dissociation decreasing slightly with increasing [NaCl] on spherical micelles, but dropping significantly on the threadlike micelles tit high [NaCl]. This effect indicates that the electrolyte ions drive the micellar shape transition by screening the electrostatic repulsions between the micellar headgroups, The aromatic salicylate counterions, on the other hand, penetrate inside the micelle with their hydrophilic groups staying in the surfactant headgroup region and the hydrophobic groups partially embedded into the hydrophobic core of the micelle. The strong association of the salicylate ions with the surfactant headgroups leads to dense packing of the surfactant molecules, which effectively reduces the surface area per surfactant, and increases intramicellar ordering of the surfactant headgroups, favoring the formation of long threadlike micelles. Simulation predictions of the geometric and electrostatic properties of the spherical and threadlike micelles are in good agreement with experiments.

Free atmospheric CO2 enrichment increased above ground biomass but did not affect symbiotic N2-fixation and soil carbon dynamics in a mixed deciduous stand in Wales

Through increases in net primary production (NPP), elevated CO2 is hypothesizes to increase the amount of plant litter entering the soil. The fate of this extra carbon on the forest floor or in mineral soil is currently not clear. Moreover, increased rates of NPP can be maintained only if forests can escape nitrogen limitation. In a Free atmospheric CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment near Bangor, Wales, 4 ambient CO2 and 4 FACE plots were planted with patches of Betula pendula, Alnus glutinosa and Fagus sylvatica on a former arable field. Four years after establishment, only a shallow L forest floor litter layer had formed due to intensive bioturbation. Total soil C and N contents increased irrespective of treatment and species as a result of afforestation. We could not detect an additional C sink in the soil, nor were soil C stabilization processes affected by FACE. We observed a decrease of leaf N content in Betula and Alnus under FACE, while the soil C/N ratio decreased regardless of CO2 treatment. The ratio of N taken up from the soil and by N2-fixation in Alnus was not affected by FACE. We infer that increased nitrogen use efficiency is the mechanism by which increased NPP is sustained under elevated CO2 at this site.

Modelling human dynamics in-situ for rehabilitation and therapy robots

This paper outlines some rehabilitation applications of manipulators and identifies that new approaches demand that the robot make an intimate contact with the user. Design of new generations of manipulators with programmable compliance along with higher level controllers that can set the compliance appropriately for the task, are both feasible propositions. We must thus gain a greater insight into the way in which a person interacts with a machine, particularly given that the interaction may be non-passive. We are primarily interested in the change in wrist and arm dynamics as the person co-contracts his/her muscles. It is observed that this leads to a change in stiffness that can push an actuated interface into a limit cycle. We use both experimental results gathered from a PHANToM haptic interface and a mathematical model to observe this effect. Results are relevant to the fields of rehabilitation and therapy robots, haptic interfaces, and telerobotics

Identifying and investigating pesticide application types to promote a more sustainable pesticide use: the case of smallholders in Boyacá, Colombia

The present paper investigates pesticide application types adopted by smallholder potato producers in the Department of Boyacá , Colombia. In this region, environmental, health and adverse economic effects due to pesticide mis- or over-use respectively have been observed. Firstly, pesticide application types were identified based on input-effectiveness. Secondly, their determinants of adoption were investigated. Finally suggestions were given to develop intervention options for transition towards a more sustainable pesticide use. Three application types were identified for fungicide and insecticide. The types differed in terms of input (intensity of pesticide application), effect (damage control), frequency of application, average quantity applied per application, chemical class, and productivity. Then, the determinants of different pesticide application types were investigated with a multinomial logistic regression approach and applying the integrative agent centred (IAC) framework. The area of the plot, attendance at training sessions and educational and income levels were among the most relevant determinants. The analysis suggested that better pesticide use could be fostered to reduce pesticide-related risks in the region. Intervention options were outlined, which may help in targeting this issue. They aim not only at educating farmers, but to change their social and institutional context, by involving other agents of the agricultural system (i.e. pesticide producers), facilitating new institutional settings (i.e. cooperatives) and targeting social dynamics (i.e. conformity to social norms).

Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.

Parameterisation of orographic cloud dynamics in a GCM

A new parameterisation is described that predicts the temperature perturbations due to sub-grid scale orographic gravity waves in the atmosphere of the 19 level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model. The explicit calculation of the wave phase allows the sign of the temperature perturbation to be predicted. The scheme is used to create orographic clouds, including cirrus, that were previously absent in model simulations. A novel approach to the validation of this parameterisation makes use of both satellite observations of a case study, and a simulation in which the Unified Model is nudged towards ERA-40 assimilated winds, temperatures and humidities. It is demonstrated that this approach offers a feasible way of introducing large scale orographic cirrus clouds into GCMs.

Evolutionary dynamics of Staphylococcus aureus during progression from carriage to disease

Whole-genome sequencing offers new insights into the evolution of bacterial pathogens and the etiology of bacterial disease. Staph- ylococcus aureus is a major cause of bacteria-associated mortality and invasive disease and is carried asymptomatically by 27% of adults. Eighty percent of bacteremias match the carried strain. How- ever, the role of evolutionary change in the pathogen during the progression from carriage to disease is incompletely understood. Here we use high-throughput genome sequencing to discover the genetic changes that accompany the transition from nasal carriage to fatal bloodstream infection in an individual colonized with meth- icillin-sensitive S. aureus. We found a single, cohesive population exhibiting a repertoire of 30 single-nucleotide polymorphisms and four insertion/deletion variants. Mutations accumulated at a steady rate over a 13-mo period, except for a cluster of mutations preceding the transition to disease. Although bloodstream bacteria differed by just eight mutations from the original nasally carried bacteria, half of those mutations caused truncation of proteins, including a prema- ture stop codon in an AraC-family transcriptional regulator that has been implicated in pathogenicity. Comparison with evolution in two asymptomatic carriers supported the conclusion that clusters of pro- tein-truncating mutations are highly unusual. Our results demon- strate that bacterial diversity in vivo is limited but nonetheless detectable by whole-genome sequencing, enabling the study of evolutionary dynamics within the host. Regulatory or structural changes that occur during carriage may be functionally important for pathogenesis; therefore identifying those changes is a crucial step in understanding the biological causes of invasive bacterial disease.

Steady state and dynamic modelling of nitrogen in the River Kennet: impacts of land use change since the 1930s

Steady state and dynamic models have been developed and applied to the River Kennet system. Annual nitrogen exports from the land surface to the river have been estimated based on land use from the 1930s and the 1990s. Long term modelled trends indicate that there has been a large increase in nitrogen transport into the river system driven by increased fertiliser application associated with increased cereal production, increased population and increased livestock levels. The dynamic model INCA Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments. has been applied to simulate the day-to-day transport of N from the terrestrial ecosystem to the riverine environment. This process-based model generates spatial and temporal data and reproduces the observed instream concentrations. Applying the model to current land use and 1930s land use indicates that there has been a major shift in the short term dynamics since the 1930s, with increased river and groundwater concentrations caused by both non-point source pollution from agriculture and point source discharges. �

System dynamics mapping of acute patient flows

Department of Health staff wished to use systems modelling to discuss acute patient flows with groups of NHS staff. The aim was to assess the usefulness of system dynamics (SD) in a healthcare context and to elicit proposals concerning ways of improving patient experience. Since time restrictions excluded simulation modelling, a hybrid approach using stock/flow symbols from SD was created. Initial interviews and hospital site visits generated a series of stock/flow maps. A ‘Conceptual Framework’ was then created to introduce the mapping symbols and to generate a series of questions about different patient paths and what might speed or slow patient flows. These materials formed the centre of three workshops for NHS staff. The participants were able to propose ideas for improving patient flows and the elicited data was subsequently employed to create a finalized suite of maps of a general acute hospital. The maps and ideas were communicated back to the Department of Health and subsequently assisted the work of the Modernization Agency.