Osteoporotic hip fractures: Bisphosphonates sales and observed turning point in trend. A population-based retrospective study

The aim is to examine the temporal trends of hip fracture incidence in Portugal by sex and age groups, and explore the relation with anti-osteoporotic medication. From the National Hospital Discharge Database, we selected from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2008, 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4% women) caused by osteoporotic hip fractures (low energy, patients over 49 years-age), with diagnosis codes 820.x of ICD 9-CM. The 2001 Portuguese population was used as standard to calculate direct age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) (100,000 inhabitants). Generalized additive and linear models were used to evaluate and quantify temporal trends of age specific rates (AR), by sex. We identified 2003 as a turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women. After 2003, the ASIR in women decreased on average by 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants, 95% CI (− 15.7 to − 4.8), per 100,000 anti-osteoporotic medication packages sold. For women aged 65–69 and 75–79 we identified the same turning point. However, for women aged over 80, the year 2004 marked a change in the trend, from an increase to a decrease. Among the population aged 70–74 a linear decrease of incidence rate (95% CI) was observed in both sexes, higher for women: − 28.0% (− 36.2 to − 19.5) change vs − 18.8%, (− 32.6 to − 2.3). The abrupt turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women is compatible with an intervention, such as a medication. The trends were different according to gender and age group, but compatible with the pattern of bisphosphonates sales.

Explosion of smoothness from a point to everywhere for conjugacies between Markov families

For uniformly asymptotically affine (uaa) Markov maps on train tracks, we prove the following type of rigidity result: if a topological conjugacy between them is (uaa) at a point in the train track then the conjugacy is (uaa) everywhere. In particular, our methods apply to the case in which the domains of the Markov maps are Canter sets. We also present similar statements for (uaa:) and C-r Markov families. These results generalize the similar ones of Sullivan and de Faria for C-r expanding circle maps with r > 1 and have useful applications to hyperbolic dynamics on surfaces and laminations.

Explosion of smoothness from a point to everywhere for conjugacies between diffeomorphisms on surfaces

For diffeomorphisms on surfaces with basic sets, we show the following type of rigidity result: if a topological conjugacy between them is differentiable at a point in the basic set then the conjugacy has a smooth extension to the surface. These results generalize the similar ones of D. Sullivan, E. de Faria and ours for one-dimensional expanding dynamics.

A biomimetic sensor for monitoring oxidative stress biomarker in point-of-care

1st ASPIC International Congress

Protein-responsive polymers for point-of-care detection of cardiac biomarker

This work describes a novel use for the polymeric film, poly(o-aminophenol) (PAP) that was made responsive to a specific protein. This was achieved through templated electropolymerization of aminophenol (AP) in the presence of protein. The procedure involved adsorbing protein on the electrode surface and thereafter electroploymerizing the aminophenol. Proteins embedded at the outer surface of the polymeric film were digested by proteinase K and then washed away thereby creating vacant sites. The capacity of the template film to specifically rebind protein was tested with myoglobin (Myo), a cardiac biomarker for ischemia. The films acted as biomimetic artificial antibodies and were produced on a gold (Au) screen printed electrode (SPE), as a step towards disposable sensors to enable point-of-care applications. Raman spectroscopy was used to follow the surface modification of the Au-SPE. The ability of the material to rebind Myo was measured by electrochemical techniques, namely electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and square wave voltammetry (SWV). The devices displayed linear responses to Myo in EIS and SWV assays down to 4.0 and 3.5 μg/mL, respectively, with detection limits of 1.5 and 0.8 μg/mL. Good selectivity was observed in the presence of troponin T (TnT) and creatine kinase (CKMB) in SWV assays, and accurate results were obtained in applications to spiked serum. The sensor described in this work is a potential tool for screening Myo in point-of-care due to the simplicity of fabrication, disposability, short time response, low cost, good sensitivity and selectivity.

Novel biosensing device for point-of-care applications with plastic antibodies grown on Au-Screen Printed Electrodes

A gold screen printed electrode (Au-SPE) was modified by merging Molecular Imprinting and Self-Assembly Monolayer techniques for fast screening cardiac biomarkers in point-of-care (POC). For this purpose, Myoglobin (Myo) was selected as target analyte and its plastic antibody imprinted over a glutaraldehyde (Glu)/cysteamine (Cys) layer on the gold-surface. The imprinting effect was produced by growing a reticulated polymer of acrylamide (AAM) and N,N′-methylenebisacrylamide (NNMBA) around the Myo template, covalently attached to the biosensing surface. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV) studies were carried out in all chemical modification steps to confirm the surface changes in the Au-SPE. The analytical features of the resulting biosensor were studied by different electrochemical techniques, including EIS, square wave voltammetry (SWV) and potentiometry. The limits of detection ranged from 0.13 to 8 μg/mL. Only potentiometry assays showed limits of detection including the cut-off Myo levels. Quantitative information was also produced for Myo concentrations ≥0.2 μg/mL. The linear response of the biosensing device showed an anionic slope of ~70 mV per decade molar concentration up to 0.3 μg/mL. The interference of coexisting species was tested and good selectivity was observed. The biosensor was successfully applied to biological fluids.

On the unknown ecological niche of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis: our hypothesis of 1989: present status and perspectives

In 1989, CONTI DÍAZ & RILLA published a hypothesis concerning the as yet unknown ecological niche of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis. The hypothesis proposed a highly efficient paracoccidioidal ecological strategy based on an important natural reservoir of the parasite, probably in heterothermic animals from fresh water environments. Further, the hypothesis proposed, a transient and variable residence in the soil with a wide aleuriospore dispersion throughout the environment together with an elevated capability of infecting humans, and domestic and wild animals. This paper analyzes scientific publications from the IX International Meeting on Paracoccidioidomycosis held in Águas de Lindoia, São Paulo, Brazil from 2-5 October 2005, providing a comparative study among this articles and with other recently published papers and the hypothesis' postulates. Since various findings and observations appear to agree with the postulates, the pursuit of novel, specific research projects in the supposed reservoirs is recommended partially or fully to confirm the hypothesis using classical laboratorial methods and modern molecular biology techniques.

Inflammatory and Cardiometabolic Risk on Obesity: Role of Environmental Xenoestrogens

Context: Some chemicals used in consumer products or manufacturing (eg, plastics, pesticides) have estrogenic activities; these xenoestrogens (XEs) may affect immune responses and have recently emerged as a new risk factors for obesity and cardiovascular disease. However, the extent and impact on health of chronic exposure of the general population to XEs are still unknown. Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the levels of XEs in plasma and adipose tissue (AT) depots in a sample of pre- and postmenopausal obese women undergoing bariatric surgery and their cardiometabolic impact in an obese state. Design and Participants: We evaluated XE levels in plasma and visceral and subcutaneous AT samples of Portuguese obese (body mass index ≥ 35 kg/m2) women undergoing bariatric surgery. Association with metabolic parameters and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk was assessed, according to menopausal status (73 pre- and 48 postmenopausal). Levels of XEs were determined by gas chromatography with electron-capture detection. Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected prior to surgery. Adipocyte size was determined on tissue sections obtained during surgery. Results: Our data show that XEs are pervasive in this obese population. Distribution of individual and concentration of total XEs differed between plasma, visceral AT, and subcutaneous AT, and the pattern of accumulation was different between pre- and postmenopausal women. Significant associations between XE levels and metabolic and inflammatory parameters were found. In premenopausal women, XEs in plasma seem to be a predictor of 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. Conclusions: Our findings point toward a different distribution of XE between plasma and AT in pre- and postmenopausal women, and reveal the association between XEs on the development of metabolic abnormalities in obese premenopausal women

International duopoly with unknown costs

We consider two firms, located in different countries, selling the same homogeneous good in both countries. In each country there is a non negative tariff on imports of the good produced in the other country. We suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We analyse the effect of the production costs uncertainty on the profits of the firms and also on the welfare of the governments.

Proposta de modelo para obtenção do Work Index das rochas

Este trabalho pretende estabelecer uma relação entre o Work Index e algumas propriedades das rochas. Através da pesquisa bibliográfica foram identificadas varias propriedades com possível influência no valor do Work Index, das quais foram seleccionadas a massa volúmica aparente, a resistência à carga pontual, a composição química, a composição mineralógica e a abrasividade. Adicionalmente a porosidade aberta e resistência à compressão também foram analisadas. Assim foram analisadas 10 amostras de rocha, quatro de granitos, uma de quartzodiorito, uma de ardósia, uma de serpentinito, uma de calcário, uma de mármore e uma de sienito nefelínico, sobre as quais já eram conhecidos os valores de cinco das propriedades referidas previamente, tendo sido determinados os valores das ainda desconhecidas, resistência à carga pontual e a abrasividade que está representada através do resultado do ensaio capon. Devido à dificuldade de execução do ensaio de determinação do Work Index de Bond foram recolhidos dados bibliográficos de valores do Work Index para as amostras de rocha seleccionadas e adoptado o valor médio para cada uma. Os dados obtidos foram tratados estatisticamente através do método de análise de componentes principais assim como através de regressões lineares simples e múltiplas. A análise de componentes principais permitiu identificar várias propriedades da rocha com possível influência sobre o Work Index de entre as analisadas. Foi possível estabelecer uma relação entre o Work Index e quatro das propriedades seleccionadas, designadamente a porosidade aberta, a resistência à compressão, a resistência à carga pontual e a abrasividade.

Spatial point pattern analysis of gorilla nest sites in the Kagwene Sanctuary, Cameroon: Towards understanding the nesting behavior of a critically endangered subspecies

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Retaining MBAs, from employees' point of view

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Epidemology and clinical aspects of human rabies in Minas Gerais, Brasil: misdiagnosis and misunderstandings on the psychopathological disturbances

This paper reports 40 cases of human rabies studied at the Carlos Chagas Hospital of UFMC, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, from 1963 through 1976. From the epidemioiogical point of view it is concluded that the magnitude of the problem of human rabies in underdeveioped countries remains quite unknown. Speciai emphasis is given to the lack of apropriate knowledge of the recommended preventive measures, and to the influence of health education and socio-economic-cultural structure of the communities. The classic clinical picture of human rabies is briefiy described, particular attention being drawn to psychopathologic features of rabies encephalomyeiitis. it is pointed out that in some cases the mental symptoms may predominate from the onset of the illness, adding difficuity to the diagnosis. According to the Authors, human rabies must be differentiated from several psychopathologic syndromes and also from encephalomyelitis due to other central nervous system infections. It is discussed whether the fataiistic concept of human rabies would be somehow contributing to delay a better understanding of the natural history of the disease.

Architettura Prefabbricata –L’obra Colombo a Lisbona Project Management’s Point of View

L'Edilizia Ingegneria Materiali Tecnologia

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.