Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

A high proportion of users of low-threshold facilities with needle exchange programmes in Switzerland are currently on methadone treatment: implications for new approaches in harm reduction and care.

BACKGROUND: Increasingly, patients receiving methadone treatment are found in low threshold facilities (LTF), which provide needle exchange programmes in Switzerland. This paper identifies the characteristics of LTF attendees receiving methadone treatment (MT) compared with other LTF attendees (non-MT). METHODS: A national cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2006 over five consecutive days in all LTF (n=25). Attendees were given an anonymous questionnaire, collecting information on socio-demographic indicators, drug consumption, injection, methadone treatment, and self-reported HIV and HCV status. Univariate analysis and logistic regression were performed to compare MT to non-MT. The response rate was 66% (n=1128). RESULTS: MT comprised 57.6% of the sample. In multivariate analysis, factors associated with being on MT were older age (OR: 1.38), being female (OR: 1.60), having one's own accommodation (OR: 1.56), receiving public assistance (OR: 2.29), lifetime injecting (OR: 2.26), HIV-positive status (OR: 2.00), and having consumed cocaine during the past month (OR: 1.37); MT were less likely to have consumed heroin in the past month (OR: 0.76, not significant) and visited LTF less often on a daily basis (OR: 0.59). The number of injections during the past week was not associated with MT. CONCLUSIONS: More LTF attendees were in the MT group, bringing to light an underappreciated LTF clientele with specific needs. The MT group consumption profile may reflect therapeutic failure or deficits in treatment quality and it is necessary to acknowledge this and to strengthen the awareness of LTF personnel about potential needs of MT attendees to meet their therapeutic goals.

Una comparación de la selección de los ratios contables en los modelos contable-financieros de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial : la literatura previa frente al analisis factorial

En los últimos 30 años la proliferación de modelos cuantitativos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial en la literatura contable y financiera ha despertado un gran interés entre los especialistas e investigadores de lamateria. Lo que en un principio fueron unos modelos elaborados con un único objetivo, han derivado en una fuente de investigación constante.En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. A través de un procedimiento por etapas se selecciona e interpreta cuáles son las más relevantes en cuanto a aportación de información.Una vez formulado este primer tipo de modelos se busca una alternativa a las variables anteriores a través de la técnica factorial del análisis de componentes principales. Con ella se hace una selección de variables y se aplica, junto conlos ratios anteriores, el análisis univariante. Por último, se comparan los modelos obtenidos y se concluye que aunque la literatura previa ofrece mejores porcentajes de clasificación, los modelos obtenidos a través del análisis decomponentes principales no deben ser rechazados por la claridad en la explicación de las causas que conducen a una empresa a la insolvencia.

p53 and Ki-ras as prognostic factors for Dukes' stage B colorectal cancer.

Mutations of the TP53 and Ki-ras genes have been reported to be of prognostic importance in colorectal carcinomas. An increased intracellular concentration of the p53 protein, although not identical to, is sometimes seen in tumours with TP53 mutation and has been correlated with poor prognosis in some tumour types. Previous colorectal cancer studies, addressing the prognostic importance of Ki-ras mutation and TP53 aberrations, yielded contradictory results. The aim of this study was to determine in a clinically and therapeutically homogeneous group of 122 sporadic Dukes' B colorectal carcinomas with a median follow-up of 67 months (3-144 months) whether or not p53 protein expression, TP53 mutation and K-ras mutation correlated with prognosis. p53 staining was performed by immunohistochemistry, using the monoclonal antibody DO7 on paraffin-embedded tissue. Mutations in exons 5-8 of the TP53 gene and in codons 12 and 13 of the K-ras gene were assayed in paraffin-embedded tissue by the single-strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) assay. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 (47%) tumours. Aberrant migration patterns indicating mutation of the TP53 gene were found in 39 (32%) tumours. Forty-six carcinomas (38%) showed a mutation of the Ki-ras codons 12 or 13. In a univariate analysis, patients with wild-type TP53 status showed a trend towards better survival, compared with those with mutated TP53 (log-rank test, P = 0.051). Likewise, tumours immunohistochemically positive for p53 showed a worse prognosis than p53-negative tumours (P = 0.010). The presence or absence of mutations in Ki-ras did not correlate with prognosis (P = 0.703). In multivariate analysis, only p53 immunoreactivity emerged as an independent marker for prognosis hazard ratio (HR) = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Assessment of p53 protein expression is more discriminative than TP53 mutation to predict the outcome of Dukes' stage B tumours and could be a useful tool to identify patients who might benefit from adjuvant therapy.

Impact of targeted antifungal prophylaxis in heart transplant recipients at high risk for early invasive fungal infection.

BACKGROUND: Invasive fungal infection (IFI) is associated with high mortality after heart transplantation (HTx). After two undiagnosed fatal cases of early disseminated fungal infections in our heart transplant program, a retrospective analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for the development of IFI and implement a new antifungal prophylaxis policy. METHODS: Clinical characteristics of HTx recipients hospitalized in our center (2004-2010) were recorded (Period 1), and risk factors associated with IFI were investigated using Cox regression analysis. From October 2010 to October 2012 (Period 2), targeted caspofungin prophylaxis was administered to all recipients at high risk for IFI, based on the results of the Period 1 analysis. RESULTS: During Period 1, 10% (6/59) of the patients developed IFI at a median onset of 9 days after transplantation. By multivariate analysis, the use of posttransplant extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was the strongest predictor for fungal infection (OR, 29.93; 95% CI, 1.51-592.57, P=0.03), whereas renal replacement therapy (RRT) and Aspergillus colonization were significant predictors only by univariate analysis. During Period 2, only 4% (1/26) of the patients developed IFI. In patients at high risk for IFI, antifungal prophylaxis was administered to 17% (4/23) in Period 1 versus 100% (13/13) in Period 2 (P<0.01). By survival analysis, antifungal prophylaxis was associated with a reduction in 90-day IFI incidence (HR, 0.14; 95% CI, 0.03-0.84, P=0.03) and 30-day mortality (HR, 0.25; 95% CI, 0.09-0.8, P=0.02). CONCLUSION: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was identified an important risk factor for IFI after HTx, and its use may require targeted administration of antifungal prophylaxis in the immediate posttransplant period.

Evaluation of ammonia volatilization losses by adjusted parameters of a logistic function

The dynamics of N losses in fertilizer by ammonia volatilization is affected by several factors, making investigation of these dynamics more complex. Moreover, some features of the behavior of the variable can lead to deviation from normal distribution, making the main commonly adopted statistical strategies inadequate for data analysis. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the patterns of cumulative N losses from urea through ammonia volatilization in order to find a more adequate and detailed way of assessing the behavior of the variable. For that reason, changes in patterns of ammonia volatilization losses as a result of applying different combinations of two soil classes [Planossolo and Chernossolo (Typic Albaqualf and Vertic Argiaquolls)] and different rates of urea (50, 100 and 150 kg ha-1 N), in the presence or absence of a urease inhibitor, were evaluated, adopting a 2 × 3 × 2 factorial design with four replications. Univariate and multivariate analysis of variance were performed using the adjusted parameter values of a logistic function as a response variable. The results obtained from multivariate analysis indicated a prominent effect of the soil class factor on the set of parameters, indicating greater relevance of soil adsorption potential on ammonia volatilization losses. Univariate analysis showed that the parameters related to total N losses and rate of volatilization were more affected by soil class and the rate of urea applied. The urease inhibitor affected only the rate and inflection point parameters, decreasing the rate of losses and delaying the beginning of the process, but had no effect on total ammonia losses. Patterns of ammonia volatilization losses provide details on behavior of the variable, details which can be used to develop and adopt more accurate techniques for more efficient use of urea.

Objective Sleep Structure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the General Population: The HypnoLaus Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between objective sleep measures and metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: General population sample. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2,162 patients (51.2% women, mean age 58.4 ± 11.1). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were evaluated for hypertension, diabetes, overweight/obesity, and MS, and underwent a full polysomnography (PSG). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: PSG measured variables included: total sleep time (TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index (ArI). In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, and sleep efficiency, and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugs that affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in patients without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes, and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and MS, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders.

Pericardial fat volume correlates with coronary vasomotion

Purpose: Recent studies showed that pericardial fat was independently correlated with the development of coronary artery disease (CAD). The mechanism remains unclear. We aimed at assessing a possible relationship between pericardial fat volume and endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion, a surrogate of future cardiovascular events.Methods: Fifty healthy volunteers without known CAD or cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) were enrolled. They all underwent a dynamic Rb- 82 cardiac PET/CT to quantify myocardial blood flow (MBF) at rest, during MBF response to cold pressure test (CPT-MBF) and adenosine stress. Pericardial fat volume (PFV) was measured using a 3D volumetric CT method and common biological CRF (glucose and insulin levels, HOMA-IR, cholesterol, triglyceride, hs-CRP). Relationships between MBF response to CPT, PFV and other CRF were assessed using non-parametric Spearman correlation and multivariate regression analysis of variables with significant correlation on univariate analysis (Stata 11.0).Results: All of the 50 participants had normal MBF response to adenosine (2.7±0.6 mL/min/g; 95%CI: 2.6−2.9) and myocardial flow reserve (2.8±0.8; 95%CI: 2.6−3.0) excluding underlying CAD. Simple regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between absolute CPTMBF and triglyceride level (rho = −0.32, p = 0.024) fasting blood insulin (rho = −0.43, p = 0.0024), HOMA-IR (rho = −0.39, p = 0.007) and PFV (rho = −0.52, p = 0.0001). MBF response to adenosine was only correlated with PFV (rho = −0.32, p = 0.026). On multivariate regression analysis PFV emerged as the only significant predictor of MBF response to CPT (p = 0.002).Conclusion: PFV is significantly correlated with endothelium-dependent coronary vasomotion. High PF burden might negatively influence MBF response to CPT, as well as to adenosine stress, even in persons with normal hyperemic myocardial perfusion imaging, suggesting a link between PF and future cardiovascular events. While outside-to-inside adipokines secretion through the arterial wall has been described, our results might suggest an effect upon NO-dependent and -independent vasodilatation. Further studies are needed to elucidate this mechanism.

High-dose therapy and autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant in T-cell lymphoma: a single center experience.

Abstract We report here the long-term outcome of autologous stem cell transplant in peripheral T-cell lymphoma (PTCL). Forty-three consecutive patients with PTCL diagnosed between 2000 and 2011 were treated with high-dose chemotherapy (HDCT) and autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT) in our center. Diagnoses included PTCL-not otherwise specified (n = 19), anaplastic large cell lymphoma (n = 11), angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (n = 5), enteropathy-associated T-cell lymphoma (n = 5) and other rare subtypes (n = 3). Thirty-six patients with a median age of 50 years (range 22-65) were transplanted in first response and seven after relapse. After a median follow-up of 63 months, estimated overall survival at 12 years was 40%, progression-free survival at 12 years was 34% and event-free survival at 12 years was 30%. On univariate analysis, age less than 50 years and no B symptoms at diagnosis were significantly associated with prolonged overall and progression-free-survival. HDCT/ASCT for peripheral T-cell lymphoma can lead to long-term survival for patients responding to induction chemotherapy.

Treatment results and prognostic factors in primary thyroid lymphoma patients: a rare cancer network study.

Background: This study analyzed prognostic factors and treatment outcomes of primary thyroid lymphoma. Patients and Methods: Data were retrospectively collected for 87 patients (53 stage I and 34 stage II) with median age 65 years. Fifty-two patients were treated with single modality (31 with chemotherapy alone and 21 with radiotherapy alone) and 35 with combined modality treatment. Median follow-up was 51 months. Results: Sixty patients had aggressive lymphoma and 27 had indolent lymphoma. The 5- and 10-year overall survival (OS) rates were 74% and 71%, respectively, and the disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 68% and 64%. Univariate analysis revealed that age, tumor size, stage, lymph node involvement, B symptoms, and treatment modality were prognostic factors for OS, DFS, and local control (LC). Patients with thyroiditis had significantly better LC rates. In multivariate analysis, OS was influenced by age, B symptoms, lymph node involvement, and tumor size, whereas DFS and LC were influenced by B symptoms and tumor size. Compared with single modality treatment, patients treated with combined modality had better 5-year OS, DFS, and LC. Conclusions: Combined modality leads to an excellent prognosis for patients with aggressive lymphoma but does not improve OS and LC in patients with indolent lymphoma.

How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The diagnostic significance of clinical symptoms/signs of influenza has mainly been assessed in the context of controlled studies with stringent inclusion criteria. There was a need to extend the evaluation of these predictors not only in the context of general practice but also according to the duration of symptoms and to the dynamics of the epidemic. PRINCIPLES: A prospective study conducted in the Medical Outpatient Clinic in the winter season 1999-2000. Patients with influenza-like syndrome were included, as long as the primary care physician envisaged the diagnosis of influenza. The physician administered a questionnaire, a throat swab was performed and a culture acquired to document the diagnosis of influenza. RESULTS: 201 patients were included in the study. 52% were culture positive for influenza. By univariate analysis, temperature >37.8 degrees C (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), duration of symptoms <48 hours (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), cough (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) and myalgia (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) were associated with a diagnosis of influenza. In a multivariable logistic analysis, the best model predicting influenza was the association of a duration of symptom <48 hours, medical attendance at the beginning of the epidemic (weeks 49-50), fever >37.8 and cough, with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 67%, negative predictive value of 73% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: Besides relevant symptoms and signs, the physician should also consider the duration of symptoms and the epidemiological context (start, peak or end of the epidemic) in his appraisal, since both parameters considerably modify the value of the clinical predictors when assessing the probability of a patient having influenza.

Incidence, complications and risk factors for severe falls in patients on maintenance haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Falls have been insufficiently studied in patients on maintenance haemodialysis (MHD). This study assessed the incidence and complications of severe falls and the ability of risk factors, including the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA) test, to predict them in this population. METHODS: All patients on MHD from our centre were asked to participate in this survey. POMA test and a record of risk factors for falls were obtained at baseline. Severe falls, as defined by an admission in an emergency ward, were documented prospectively. RESULTS: Eighty-four patients (median age 69.5 years, minimum 26 years, maximum 85 years) were enrolled. Predialytic POMA scores were low (median 20, minimum 5, maximum 26). After a mean follow-up of 20.6 months (142.2 patient-years), 31 severe falls were recorded in 24 patients (28.6%; incidence 0.22 per patient-year) and complicated by fractures in 54.8% of severe falls. In univariate analysis, age, a past history of falls, malnutrition, depression, but not POMA score, were associated with severe falls. A POMA score of >21 had a negative predictive value of 82%. CONCLUSIONS: Severe falls were common in MHD patients in this study and resulted in fractures in >50% of the cases. They were associated with ageing, a past history of falls, malnutrition and depression. Although there was a trend towards a lower POMA score in fallers as compared to non-fallers, the POMA score was not an independent predictor of severe falls in this study. These data may help to stratify the patient's risk of falling in order to target programmes to prevent falls in this population.

Management of adenoid cystic carcinoma of the breast: a Rare Cancer Network study.

BACKGROUND: Mammary adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is a rare breast cancer. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess prognostic factors and patterns of failure, as well as the role of radiation therapy (RT), in ACC.¦METHODS: Between January 1980 and December 2007, 61 women with breast ACC were treated at participating centers of the Rare Cancer Network. Surgery consisted of lumpectomy in 41 patients and mastectomy in 20 patients. There were 51(84%) stage pN0 and 10 stage cN0 (16%) patients. Postoperative RT was administered to 40 patients (35 after lumpectomy, 5 after mastectomy).¦RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 79 months (range, 6-285), 5-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%-100%) and 82% (95% CI, 71%-93%), respectively. The 5-year locoregional control (LRC) rate was 95% (95% CI, 89%-100%). Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy was performed in 84% of cases. All patients had stage pN0 disease. In univariate analysis, survival was not influenced by the type of surgery or the use of postoperative RT. The 5-year LRC rate was 100% in the mastectomy group versus 93% (95% CI, 83%-100%) in the breast-conserving surgery group, respectively (p = 0.16). For the breast-conserving surgery group, the use of RT significantly correlated with LRC (p = 0.03); the 5-year LRC rates were 95% (95% CI, 86%-100%) for the RT group versus 83% (95% CI, 54%-100%) for the group receiving no RT. No local failures occurred in patients with positive margins, all of whom received postoperative RT.¦CONCLUSION: Breast-conserving surgery is the treatment of choice for patients with ACC breast cancer. Axillary lymph node dissection or sentinel node biopsy might not be recommended. Postoperative RT should be proposed in the case of breast-conserving surgery.

Cross-cultural clinical competence and post-graduate teaching: any impact(s) on doctors?

Context: Cross-cultural clinical competence (CCC) requires a mixtureof "knowledge" (K), "attitude" (A) and "skills" (S), in order to develop theability to give quality care to patients of different cultures. Theseattributes allow, while providing medical care, consideration of thepatient's medical, social, cultural and language needs. The LausanneUniversity Medical Policlinic (PMU) provides approximately 30000consultations per year to migrant patients and over the past five yearshas implemented a training course on CCC that focuses on trialogue,stereotypes and administrative procedures for the healthcare ofmigrants.Method: A quantitative survey of 18 new residents, was carried outusing a validated questionnaire, the "Multicultural AssessmentQuestionnaire" (the MAQ, 16 questions on K, A and S) to evaluate theimpact of CCC training. The questionnaire was distributed before theCCC course (J-1), three days after (J+3) and three months later (J+90).A descriptive univariate analysis of the difference in MAQ scoresbetween the times J-1 - J+3 and J-1 - J+90 was made. Three FocusGroups were conducted, at three months, to explore residents' thoughtsabout the course.Results: A significant increase was observed in global performancedeclared by residents. Following the intervention, the score of the MAQincreased from 31.4 points to 38.0 points at three days (p = 0.004) andto 37.7 points at three months (p = 0.003). This increase was mostnoticeable in the field of acquiring K: total score J-1: 118, J+3: 189,J+90: 190 (difference J-1 - J+3 and J-1 - J+90: p <0.005). There was nosignificant difference in acquiring A (J-1: 222, J+3: 228, J+90: 229), andS increases in a significant way at first (J-1: 222, J+3: 265, J-1 - J+3:p = 0.035), then comes back to the start value (J+90: 217). The residentswere interested by the course which they felt provides useful informationfor clinical practice. They had a great number of expectations in varyingfields (medical anthropology, cultural differences, epidemiology, etc.),hoping a "ready-made" solution for the approach of migrant patients.Conclusions: A unique training of CCC at the post-graduate level,upgraded K, and to a lesser extent A and S, for these 18 residents. Theywere interest and they had many expectations. Subsequent coursesshould consolidate these acquisitions. Future study should demonstratethe impact on patients' clinical outcome.

Introducción a la farmacia galénica: un reto en primer año de farmacia

[spa] Este curso académico 2009-2010 se implanta el nuevo plan de estudios de Farmacia en la Universidad de Barcelona, diseñado según los planteamientos del EEES. Como consecuencia, y por primera vez en la historia de la Facultad de Farmacia de la UB, se imparte una asignatura troncal de cariz galénico en el primer año de la carrera. Esto constituye un nuevo reto para el Grupo de Innovación Docente de Tecnología Farmacéutica (GIDTF), dado que la asignatura Introducción a la Farmacia Galénica se ha de impartir a grandes grupos de estudiantes, al inicio de su carrera, mediante sesiones teóricas de 1,5 h. Excepcionalmente en este curso académico, la asignatura se imparte en el primer semestre y se repite en el segundo. En este trabajo se presenta el planteamiento metodológico presencial diseñado para esta asignatura, apoyado en estrategias no presenciales como foro de debate, recursos on-line, cuestionarios y tareas de autoevaluación a través de la plataforma Moodle del Campus Virtual de la UB, puesto que el equipo docente considera prioritario iniciar al estudiante en el uso de la misma en el primer año de carrera. Se han efectuado encuestas de satisfacción a los estudiantes que se han evaluado, así también como los resultados académicos obtenidos. En el análisis de los puntos fuertes y débiles de la metodología empleada, se han detectado evaluaciones positivas y también aspectos que podrían mejorarse, estableciendo las medidas correctoras adecuadas. En cuanto a los resultados académicos, han sido muy satisfactorios. [eng] This academic year 2009-2010, the new curriculum of Pharmacy according to the premises of the EHEA is started at the University of Barcelona. As a result, for the first time in the history of the Faculty of Pharmacy of UB, an obligatory galenic subject will be given during the first year of the career. This is a new challenge for Teaching Innovation Group of Pharmaceutical Technology (GIDTF), as the subject Introduction to Galenic Pharmacy is given by a team of teachers to large groups of students who began its career, through theoretical sessions of 1.5 h. The subject will be taught exceptionally this academic year in the first semester and repeated in the second. In this paper we present the methodological approach designed to face this subject, supported by virtual strategies as discussion forum, online resources, self-assessment test and work through the platform Moodle of the Virtual Campus UB, as the team considers it a priority to initiate the student in using it in the first year of pharmacy study. Were carried out satisfaction surveys to students and we have evaluated them, as well as academic performance. Through the analysis of the methodology, we detected positive evaluations and areas for improvement that have been used to establish appropriate corrective measures. Academic results have been very satisfactory.