Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Are you sure? the role of uncertainty in career

Although uncertainty is a fundamental human experience, professionals in the career field have largely overlooked the role that it plays in people's careers. The changed nature of careers has resulted in people experiencing increased uncertainty in their career that is beyond the uncertainty experienced in their job. The author explores the role of uncertainty in people's experience of their careers and examines the implications for career counseling theory and practice. A review of the career theory and career counseling literature indicates that although contemporary approaches have been offered to respond to the changed nature of career, none of the approaches have identified uncertainty as a core part of individuals' experience of their career. The broader literature on uncertainty is then reviewed at the societal, organizational, and individual levels.

Crisis management and risk communication: Why the food industry must get it right

There is public unease about food-related issues including food additives, food poisoning bacteria and GM ingredients. The public wants evidence of no risks, but all regulators can ever offer is no evidence of risk or evidence of a very small risk. The situation is complex because experts and non-experts can perceive the same risk in vastly different ways. The way in which the food industry manages crises and communicates risks will determine the public acceptance and success of new technologies such as GM foods and nanomaterials. There is a need for the food industry (including regulators and scientific experts) to sharpen up their risk communication skills to ensure that technical innovations are accepted by consumers, and crises such as food recalls do not undermine the public's confidence in the food industry. The AIFST has a key role to play in driving the risk communication process and allaying public unease about food-related issues.

National audit of post-operative management in spinal surgery

Background: There is some evidence from a Cochrane review that rehabilitation following spinal surgery may be beneficial. Methods: We conducted a survey of current post-operative practice amongst spinal surgeons in the United Kingdom in 2002 to determine whether such interventions are being included routinely in the post-operative management of spinal patients. The survey included all surgeons who were members of either the British Association of Spinal Surgeons ( BASS) or the Society for Back Pain Research. Data on the characteristics of each surgeon and his or her current pattern of practice and post-operative care were collected via a reply-paid postal questionnaire. Results: Usable responses were provided by 57% of the 89 surgeons included in the survey. Most surgeons (79%) had a routine post-operative management regime, but only 35% had a written set of instructions that they gave to their patients concerning this. Over half (55%) of surgeons do not send their patients for any physiotherapy after discharge, with an average of less than two sessions of treatment organised by those that refer for physiotherapy at all. Restrictions on lifting, sitting and driving showed considerable inconsistency both between surgeons and also within the recommendations given by individual surgeons. Conclusion: Demonstrable inconsistencies within and between spinal surgeons in their approaches to post-operative management can be interpreted as evidence of continuing and significant uncertainty across the sub-speciality as to what does constitute best care in these areas of practice. Conducting further large, rigorous, randomised controlled trials would be the best method for obtaining definitive answers to these questions.

The effective management of geological risk in long-term production scheduling of open pit mines

Investment in mining projects, like most business investment, is susceptible to risk and uncertainty. The ability to effectively identify, assess and manage risk may enable strategic investments to be sheltered and operations to perform closer to their potential. In mining, geological uncertainty is seen as the major contributor to not meeting project expectations. The need to assess and manage geological risk for project valuation and decision-making translates to the need to assess and manage risk in any pertinent parameter of open pit design and production scheduling. This is achieved by taking geological uncertainty into account in the mine optimisation process. This thesis develops methods that enable geological uncertainty to be effectively modelled and the resulting risk in long-term production scheduling to be quantified and managed. One of the main accomplishments of this thesis is the development of a new, risk-based method for the optimisation of long-term production scheduling. In addition to maximising economic returns, the new method minimises the risk of deviating from production forecasts, given the understanding of the orebody. This ability represents a major advance in the risk management of open pit mining.

Knowledge management in a New Zealand tree farming company:Ambiguity and resistance to the "technology solution"

Purpose - Managers at the company attempt to implement a knowledge management information system in an attempt to avoid loss of expertise while improving control and efficiency. The paper seeks to explore the implications of the technological solution to employees within the company. Design/methodology/approach - The paper reports qualitative research conducted in a single organization. Evidence is presented in the form of interview extracts. Findings - The case section of the paper presents the accounts of organizational participants. The accounts reveal the workers' reactions to the technology-based system and something of their strategies of resistance to the system. These accounts also provide glimpses of the identity construction engaged in by these knowledge workers. The setting for the research is in a knowledge-intensive primary industry. Research was conducted through observation and interviews. Research limitations/implications - The issues identified are explored in a single case-study setting. Future research could look at the relevance of the findings to other settings. Practical implications - The case evidence presented indicates some of the complexity of implementation of information systems in organizations. This could certainly be seen as more evidence of the uncertainty associated with organizational change and of the need for managers not to expect an easy adoption of intrusive IT solutions. Originality/value - This paper adds empirical insight to a largely conceptual literature. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

UncertML: an XML schema for exchanging uncertainty

Authors from Burrough (1992) to Heuvelink et al. (2007) have highlighted the importance of GIS frameworks which can handle incomplete knowledge in data inputs, in decision rules and in the geometries and attributes modelled. It is particularly important for this uncertainty to be characterised and quantified when GI data is used for spatial decision making. Despite a substantial and valuable literature on means of representing and encoding uncertainty and its propagation in GI (e.g.,Hunter and Goodchild 1993; Duckham et al. 2001; Couclelis 2003), no framework yet exists to describe and communicate uncertainty in an interoperable way. This limits the usability of Internet resources of geospatial data, which are ever-increasing, based on specifications that provide frameworks for the ‘GeoWeb’ (Botts and Robin 2007; Cox 2006). In this paper we present UncertML, an XML schema which provides a framework for describing uncertainty as it propagates through many applications, including online risk management chains. This uncertainty description ranges from simple summary statistics (e.g., mean and variance) to complex representations such as parametric, multivariate distributions at each point of a regular grid. The philosophy adopted in UncertML is that all data values are inherently uncertain, (i.e., they are random variables, rather than values with defined quality metadata).

The challenge of real-time automatic mapping for environmental monitoring network management

The automatic interpolation of environmental monitoring network data such as air quality or radiation levels in real-time setting poses a number of practical and theoretical questions. Among the problems found are (i) dealing and communicating uncertainty of predictions, (ii) automatic (hyper)parameter estimation, (iii) monitoring network heterogeneity, (iv) dealing with outlying extremes, and (v) quality control. In this paper we discuss these issues, in light of the spatial interpolation comparison exercise held in 2004.

A comparative study of hospital management in Great Britain and Brazil : cost information use

In Great Britain and Brazil healthcare is free at the point of delivery and based study only on citizenship. However, the British NHS is fifty-five years old and has undergone extensive reforms. The Brazilian SUS is barely fifteen years old. This research investigated the middle management mediation role within hospitals comparing managerial planning and control using cost information in Great Britain and Brazil. This investigation was conducted in two stages entailing quantitative and qualitative techniques. The first stage was a survey involving managers of 26 NHS Trusts in Great Britain and 22 public hospitals in Brazil. The second stage consisted of interviews, 10 in Great Britain and 22 in Brazil, conducted in four selected hospitals, two in each country. This research builds on the literature by investigating the interaction of contingency theory and modes of governance in a cross-national study in terms of public hospitals. It further builds on the existing literature by measuring managerial dimensions related to cost information usefulness. The project unveils the practice involved in planning and control processes. It highlights important elements such as the use of predictive models and uncertainty reduction when planning. It uncovers the different mechanisms employed on control processes. It also depicts that planning and control within British hospitals are structured procedures and guided by overall goals. In contrast, planning and control processes in Brazilian hospitals are accidental, involving more ad hoc actions and a profusion of goals. The clinicians in British hospitals have been integrated into the management hierarchy. Their use of cost information in planning and control processes reflects this integration. However, in Brazil, clinicians have been shown to operate more independently and make little use of cost information but the potential signalled for cost information use is seen to be even greater than that of their British counterparts.

The impact of the language barrier on the management of multinational companies : a case study and survey, based exploration of the impact of the language barrier on the strategies, policies and systems by which multinational companies manage their subsidaries

The thesis begins with a conceptual model of the way that language diversity affects the strategies, organisation and subsidiary control policies of multinational companies. The model is based solely on the researcher'’ personal experience of working in a variety of international management roles, but in Chapter 2 a wide-ranging review of related academic literature finds evidence to support the key ideas. The model is developed as a series of propositions which are tested in a comparative case study, refined and then re-tested in a global survey of multinational subsidiaries. The principal findings of the empirical phases of the thesis endorse the main tenets of the model: - That language difference between parent and subsidiary will impair communication, create mistrust and impede relationship development. - That subsequently the feelings of uncertainty, suspicion and mistrust will influence the decisions taken by the parent company. - They will have heightened sensitivity to language issues and will implement policies to manage language differences. - They will adopt low-risk strategies in host countries where they are concerned about language difference. - They will use organisational and manpower strategies to minimise the consequences and risks of the communications problems with the subsidiary. - As a consequence the level of integration and knowledge flow between parent and subsidiary will be curtailed. - They will adopt styles of control that depend least on their ability to communicate with their subsidiary. Although there is adequate support for all of the above conclusions, on some key points the evidence of the Case Studies and Survey is contradictory. The thesis, therefore, closes with an agenda for further research that would address these inconsistencies.