Cross-taxon surrogacy of biodiversity in the Indian Garhwal Himalaya

Biodiversity surveys were conducted in 13, 10x50 m(2) plots located between 1400 to 3100 in abode mean sea level in a range of habitats in temperate mixed Oak and Coniferous forests through sub-alpine to the alpine grasslands in Chamoli district of Uttaranchal state in the Indian Garhwal Himalaya. Cross-taxon congruence in biodiversity (alpha-diversity and beta-diversity) across macrolichens, mosses, liverworts, woody plants (shrubs and trees) and ants was investigated, so as to examine the extent to which these group, of organisms can function as Surrogates for each other. Although woody plants provided a major substrate for macrolichens and mosses, there was no species-specific association between them. Woody plant species richness was highly positively correlated with mosses (r(2) = 0.63, P < 0.001) but the relationship, as not particularly very strong with lichens and liverworts. While there was a significant correlation in the species turnover (β-diversity) of macrolichens with mosses (r(2) = 0.21 P < 0.005). the relationship was relatively poor with the woody plants. On the other hand. negative correlations emerged in the species richness of ants with those of macrolichens, mosses and woody plants (r(2) = -0.44 P < 0.05). but most of the complementarity (turnover) relationships among them were positive, Since diversity between taxonomic hierarchies within the group was consistently significantly positively correlated in all these taxa, the higher taxonomic categories Such as genus and family may be employed as surrogates for rapid assessment and monitoring of species diversity, Although no single group other than macrolichens has emerged as a good indicator of changes in species richness in all other groups, some concordant relationships between them conform to the hypothesis that species assemblages of certain taxonomic groups could still be used as surrogates for efficient monitoring of species diversity in other groups whose distribution may further predict the importance of conserving overall biodiversity in landscapes such as the Garhwal Himalaya. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Germline BRCA1 mutation analysis in Indian breast/ovarian cancer families

Most of the predisposition to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer has been attributed to inherited defects in two tumor suppressor genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. To explore the contribution of BRCA1 mutations to hereditary breast cancer among Indian women, we examined the coding sequence of the BRCA1 gene in 14 breast cancer patients with a positive family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer. Mutation analysis was carried out using conformation sensitive gel electrophoresis (CSGE) followed by sequencing. Three mutations (21%) in the BRCA1 gene were identified. Two of them are novel mutations of which one is a missense mutation in exon 7 near the RING finger domain, while the other is a one base pair deletion in exon 11 which results in protein truncation. The third mutation, 185delAG, has been previously described in Ashkenazi Jewish families. To our knowledge this is the first report of a study of germline BRCA1 mutation analysis in familial breast cancer in India. Our data from 14 different families suggests a lower prevalence but definite involvement of germline mutations in the BRCA1 gene among Indian women with breast cancer and a family history of breast cancer.

Indian Ocean dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model

The evolution of the dipole mode (DM) events in the Indian Ocean is examined using an ocean model that is driven by the NCEP fluxes for the period 1975-1998. The positive DM events during 1997, 1994 and 1982 and negative DM events during 1996 and 1984-1985 are captured by the model and it reproduces both the surface and subsurface features associated with these events. In its positive phase, the DM is characterized by warmer than normal SST in the western Indian Ocean and cooler than normal SST in the eastern Indian Ocean. The DM events are accompanied by easterly wind anomalies along the equatorial Indian Ocean and upwelling-favorable alongshore wind anomalies along the coast of Sumatra. The Wyrtki jets are weak during positive DM events, and the thermocline is shallower than normal in the eastern Indian Ocean and deeper in the west. This anomaly pattern reverses during negative DM events. During the positive phase of the DM easterly wind anomalies excite an upwelling equatorial Kelvin wave. This Kelvin wave reflects from the eastern boundary as an upwelling Rossby wave which propagates westward across the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean weaken after the Rossby wave passes. A similar process excites a downwelling Rossby wave during the negative phase. This Rossby wave is much weaker but wind forcing in the central equatorial Indian Ocean amplifies the downwelling and increases its westward phase speed. This Rossby wave initiates the deepening of the thermocline in the western Indian Ocean during the following positive phase of the DM. Rossby wave generated in the southern tropical Indian Ocean by Ekman pumping contributes to this warming. Concurrently, the temperature equation of the model shows upwelling and downwelling to be the most important mechanism during both positive events of 1994 and 1997. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longwave radiative forcing of Indian Ocean tropospheric aerosol

A spectrally resolved discrete-ordinates radiative transfer model is used to calculate the change in downwelling surface and top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave (3.9-500 mum) radiative fluxes induced by tropospheric aerosols of the type observed over the Indian Ocean during the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX). Both external and internal aerosol mixtures were considered. Throughout the longwave, the aerosol volume extinction depends more strongly on relative humidity than in most of the shortwave (0.28-3.9 mum), implying that particle growth factors and realistic relative humidity profiles must be taken into account when modeling the longwave radiative effects of aerosols. A typical boundary layer aerosol loading, with a 500-nm optical depth of 0.3, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 7.7 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 1.3 W m(-2). A more vertically extended aerosol loading, exhibiting a high opacity plume between 2 and 3 km above the surface and having a typical 500-nm optical depth of 0.7, will increase the downwelling longwave flux at the surface by 11.2 W m(-2) over the clean air case while decreasing the outgoing longwave radiation by 2.7 W m(-2). For a vertically extended aerosol profile, approximately 30% of the TOA radiative forcing comes from sea salt and approximately 60% of the forcing comes from the combination of sea salt and dust. The remaining forcing is from anthropogenic constituents. These results are for the external mixture. For an internal mixture, TOA longwave forcings can be up to a factor of two larger. Therefore, to complete our understanding of this region's longwave aerosol radiative properties, more detailed information is needed about aerosol mixing states. These longwave radiative effects partially offset the large shortwave aerosol radiative forcing and should be included in regional and global climate modeling simulations.

The Untouchable Soldier: Caste, Politics, and the Indian Army

Military establishments are omnipresent if not everywhere omnipotent. While these costly bureaucracies are the bane of finance ministers around the world, they do provide an important opportunity for comparative analysis. This paper examines a military system—the Indian one—through time, and attempts to demonstrate the changing relationship of that system to Indian politics and society in general, and to the low-caste communities of India in particular. We select the low-caste untouchables because they represent an extreme challenge to the integrative capacity of both political and social systems, and because they have recently been the subject of intensive political and academic concern.Stephen P. Cohen is Assistant Professor of Political Science in Asian Studies at the University of Illinois. Research for this paper was supported by a fellowship from the American Institute of Indian Studies in 1964–65.

Role of Management Decision Variables in Determining Technology Progress and Technical Efficiency in Indian Electronic Industry

This paper analyses the influence of management on Technical Efficiency Change (TEC) and Technological Progress (TP) in the communication equipment and consumer electronics sub-sectors of Indian hardware electronics industry. Each sub-sector comprises 13 sample firms for two time periods.The primary objective is to determine the relative contribution of TP and TEC to TFP Growth (TFPG) and to establish the influence of firm specific operational management decision variables on these two components. The study finds that both the sub-sectors have strived and achieved steady TP but not TEC in the period of economic liberalisation to cope with the intensifying competition. The management decisions with respect to asset and profit utilization, vertical integration, among others, improved TP and TE in the sub-sectors. However, R&D investments and technology imports proved costly for TFP indicating inadequate efforts and/or poor resource utilisation by the management. Management was found to be complacent in terms of improving or developing their own technology as indicated by their higher dependence on import of raw materials and no influence of R&D on TP.

Numerical Modelling of the Observed Diurnal Cycle of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

We have analysed the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Indian region (10S-35N, 60E-100E) using both satellite and in-situ data, and found many interesting features associated with this fundamental, yet under-explored, mode of variability. Since there is a distinct and strong diurnal mode of variability associated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, we evaluate the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to simulate the observed diurnal rainfall characteristics. The model (at 54km grid-spacing) is integrated for the month of July, 2006, since this period was particularly favourable for the study of diurnal cycle. We first evaluate the sensitivity of the model to the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST), by using two different SST datasets, namely, Final Analyses (FNL) and Real-time Global (RTG). It was found that with RTG SST the rainfall simulation over central India (CI) was significantly better than that with FNL. On the other hand, over the Bay of Bengal (BoB), rainfall simulated with FNL was marginally better than with RTG. However, the overall performance of RTG SST was found to be better than FNL, and hence it was used for further model simulations. Next, we investigated the role of the convective parameterization scheme on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall. We found that the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme performs significantly better than Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ) and Grell-Devenyi schemes. We also studied the impact of other physical parameterizations, namely, microphysics, boundary layer, land surface, and the radiation parameterization, on the simulation of diurnal cycle of rainfall, and identified the “best” model configuration. We used this configuration of the “best” model to perform a sensitivity study on the role of various convective components used in the KF scheme. In particular, we studied the role of convective downdrafts, convective timescale, and feedback fraction, on the simulated diurnal cycle of rainfall. The “best” model simulations, in general, show a good agreement with observations. Specifically, (i) Over CI, the simulated diurnal rainfall peak is at 1430 IST, in comparison to the observed 1430-1730 IST peak; (ii) Over Western Ghats and Burmese mountains, the model simulates a diurnal rainfall peak at 1430 IST, as opposed to the observed peak of 1430-1730 IST; (iii) Over Sumatra, both model and observations show a diurnal peak at 1730 IST; (iv) The observed southward propagating diurnal rainfall bands over BoB are weakly simulated by WRF. Besides the diurnal cycle of rainfall, the mean spatial pattern of total rainfall and its partitioning between the convective and stratiform components, are also well simulated. The “best” model configuration was used to conduct two nested simulations with one-way, three-level nesting (54-18-6km) over CI and BoB. While, the 54km and 18km simulations were conducted for the whole of July, 2006, the 6km simulation was carried out for the period 18 - 24 July, 2006. The results of our coarse- and fine-scale numerical simulations of the diurnal cycle of monsoon rainfall will be discussed.

On breaks of the Indian monsoon

For over a century, the term break has been used for spells in which the rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone is interrupted. The phenomenon of 'break monsoon' is of great interest because long intense breaks are often associated with poor monsoon seasons. Such breaks have distinct circulation characteristics (heat trough type circulation) and have a large impact on rainfed agriculture. Although interruption of the monsoon rainfall is considered to be the most important feature of the break monsoon, traditionally breaks have been identified on the basis of the surface pressure and wind patterns over the Indian region. We have defined breaks (and active spells) on the basis of rainfall over the monsoon zone. The rainfall criteria are chosen so as to ensure a large overlap with the traditional breaks documented by Ramamurthy (1969) and De et al (1998). We have identified these rainbreaks for 1901-89. We have also identified active spells on the basis of rainfall over the Indian monsoon zone. We have shown that the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with the number of rainbreak days (correlation coefficient -0.56) and significantly positively correlated with the number of active days (correlation coefficient 0.47). Thus the interannual variation of the all-India summer monsoon rainfall is shown to be related to the number of days of rainbreaks and active spells identified here. There have been several studies of breaks (and also active spells in several cases) identified on the basis of different criteria over regions differing in spatial scales (e.g., Webster et al 1998; Krishnan et al 2000; Goswami and Mohan 2000; and Annamalai and Slingo 2001). We find that there is considerable overlap between the rainbreaks we have identified and breaks based on the traditional definition. There is some overlap with the breaks identified by Krishnan et al (2000) but little overlap with breaks identified by Webster et al (1998). Further, there are three or four active-break cycles in a season according to Webster et al (1998) which implies a time scale of about 40 days for which Goswami and Mohan (2000), and Annamalai and Slingo'(2001) have studied breaks and active minus break fluctuations. On the other hand, neither the traditional breaks (Ramamurthy 1969; and De et al 1998) nor the rainbreaks occur every year. This suggests that the 'breaks' in these studies axe weak spells of the intraseasonal variation of the monsoon, which occur every year. We have derived the OLR and circulation patterns associated with rainbreaks and active spells and compared them with the patterns associated with breaks/active minus break spells from these studies. Inspite of differences in the patterns over the Indian region, there is one feature which is seen in the OLR anomaly patterns of breaks identified on the basis of different criteria as well as the rainbreaks identified in this paper viz., a quadrapole over the Asia-west Pacific region arising from anomalies opposite (same) in sign to those over the Indian region occurring over the equatorial Indian Ocean and northern tropical (equatorial) parts of the west Pacific. Thus it appears that this quadrapole is a basic feature of weak spells of the intraseasonal,variation over the Asia-west Pacific region. Since the rainbreaks are intense weak spells, this basic feature is also seen in the composite patterns of these breaks. We find that rainbreaks (active spells) are also associated with negative (positive) anomalies over a part of the cast Pacific suggesting that the convection over the Indian region is linked to that over the east Pacific not only on the interannual scale (as evinced by the link between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and ENSO) but on the intraseasonal scale as well.

The Indian monsoon and its variability

For over 300 years, the monsoon has been viewed as a gigantic land-sea breeze. It is shown in this paper that satellite and conventional observations support an alternative hypothesis, which considers the monsoon as a manifestation of seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). With the focus on the Indian monsoon, the mean seasonal pattern is described, and why it is difficult to simulate it is discussed. Some facets of the intraseasonal variation, such as active-weak cycles; break monsoon; and a special feature of intraseasonal variation over the region, namely, poleward propagations of the ITCZ at intervals of 2-6 weeks, are considered. Vertical moist stability is shown to be a key parameter in the variation of monthly convection over ocean and land as well as poleward propagations. Special features of the Bay of Bengal and the monsoon brought out by observations during a national observational experiment in 1999 are briefly described.

Climate change and Indian forests

An assessment of the impact of projected climate change on forest ecosystems in India based on climate projections of the Regional Climate Model of the Hadley Centre (HadRM3) and the global dynamic vegetation model IBIS for A1B scenario is conducted for short-term (2021-2050) and long-term (2071-2100) periods. Based on the dynamic global vegetation modelling, vulnerable forested regions of India have been identified to assist in planning adaptation interventions. The assessment of climate impacts showed that at the national level, about 45% of the forested grids is projected to undergo change. Vulnerability assessment showed that such vulnerable forested grids are spread across India. However, their concentration is higher in the upper Himalayan stretches, parts of Central India, northern Western Ghats and the Eastern Ghats. In contrast, the northeastern forests, southern Western Ghats and the forested regions of eastern India are estimated to be the least vulnerable. Low tree density, low biodiversity status as well as higher levels of fragmentation, in addition to climate change, contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The mountainous forests (sub-alpine and alpine forest, the Himalayan dry temperate forest and the Himalayan moist temperate forest) are susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. This is because climate change is predicted to be larger for regions that have greater elevations.