Institutions and Economic Development. New tests and new doubts.

Is institutional quality a major driver of economic development? This paper tackles the question by focusing on the within-country variation of growth rates of GDP per capita. While previous attempts using this methodology have controlled for many of the standard de- terminants of the empirical growth literature, we argue that such ap- proach is not adequate if good institutions are the main reason behind decisions to invest in human or physical capital accumulation or to engage in international trade. Our regressions exclude the proximate causes of growth in order to estimate the overall e¤ect of institutional quality. Perhaps surprisingly, we nd no support for the thesis that institutional quality improves economic growth. These results encourage a reconsideration of the evidence provided elsewhere in the literature.

Growth Rate Estimation in the presence of Unit Roots

This study addresses the issue of the presence of a unit root on the growth rate estimation by the least-squares approach. We argue that when the log of a variable contains a unit root, i.e., it is not stationary then the growth rate estimate from the log-linear trend model is not a valid representation of the actual growth of the series. In fact, under such a situation, we show that the growth of the series is the cumulative impact of a stochastic process. As such the growth estimate from such a model is just a spurious representation of the actual growth of the series, which we refer to as a “pseudo growth rate”. Hence such an estimate should be interpreted with caution. On the other hand, we highlight that the statistical representation of a series as containing a unit root is not easy to separate from an alternative description which represents the series as fundamentally deterministic (no unit root) but containing a structural break. In search of a way around this, our study presents a survey of both the theoretical and empirical literature on unit root tests that takes into account possible structural breaks. We show that when a series is trendstationary with breaks, it is possible to use the log-linear trend model to obtain well defined estimates of growth rates for sub-periods which are valid representations of the actual growth of the series. Finally, to highlight the above issues, we carry out an empirical application whereby we estimate meaningful growth rates of real wages per worker for 51 industries from the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-2003, which are not only unbiased but also asymptotically efficient. We use these growth rate estimates to highlight the evolving inter-industry wage structure in India.

A New Model Of Trend Inflation

This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval. The bounds of this interval can either be fixed or estimated from the data. Our model also allows for a time-varying degree of persistence in the transitory component of inflation. The bounds placed on trend inflation mean that standard econometric methods for estimating linear Gaussian state space models cannot be used and we develop a posterior simulation algorithm for estimating the bounded trend inflation model. In an empirical exercise with CPI inflation we find the model to work well, yielding more sensible measures of trend inflation and forecasting better than popular alternatives such as the unobserved components stochastic volatility model.

Complete Markets Strikes Back: Revisiting Risk Sharing Tests under Discount Rate Heterogeneity

Recent risk sharing tests strongly reject the hypothesis of complete markets, because in the data: (1) the individual consumption comoves with income and (2) the consumption dispersion increases over the life cycle. In this paper, I revisit the implications of these risk sharing tests in the context of a complete market model with discount rate heterogeneity, which is extended to introduce the individual choices of effort in education. I .nd that a complete market model with discount rate heterogeneity can pass both types of the risk sharing tests. The endogenous positive correlation between income growth rate and patience makes the individual consumption comove with income, even if the markets are complete. I also show that this model is quantitatively admissible to account for both the observed comovement of consumption and income and the increase of consumption dispersion over the life cycle.

The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth

Modern macroeconomic theory utilises optimal control techniques to model the maximisation of individual well-being using a lifetime utility function. Agents face choices over current and future consumption (with resultant implied savings decisions) seeking to maximise the present value of current plus future well-being. However, such inter-temporal welfare-maximising assumptions remain empirically untested. In the work presented here we test whether welfare was in (historical) fact maximised in the US between 1870-2000 and find empirical support for the optimising basis of growth theory, but only once a comprehensive view of what constitutes a country’s wealth or capital is taken into account.

Validity of impedance-based equations for the prediction of total body water as measured by deuterium dilution in African women.

BACKGROUND: Little information is available on the validity of simple and indirect body-composition methods in non-Western populations. Equations for predicting body composition are population-specific, and body composition differs between blacks and whites. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that the validity of equations for predicting total body water (TBW) from bioelectrical impedance analysis measurements is likely to depend on the racial background of the group from which the equations were derived. DESIGN: The hypothesis was tested by comparing, in 36 African women, TBW values measured by deuterium dilution with those predicted by 23 equations developed in white, African American, or African subjects. These cross-validations in our African sample were also compared, whenever possible, with results from other studies in black subjects. RESULTS: Errors in predicting TBW showed acceptable values (1.3-1.9 kg) in all cases, whereas a large range of bias (0.2-6.1 kg) was observed independently of the ethnic origin of the sample from which the equations were derived. Three equations (2 from whites and 1 from blacks) showed nonsignificant bias and could be used in Africans. In all other cases, we observed either an overestimation or underestimation of TBW with variable bias values, regardless of racial background, yielding no clear trend for validity as a function of ethnic origin. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this cross-validation study emphasize the need for further fundamental research to explore the causes of the poor validity of TBW prediction equations across populations rather than the need to develop new prediction equations for use in Africa.

Evaluation of three serological tests for the detection of human plague in northeast Brazil

The passive haemagglutination (PHA) test, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and the dot enzyme-immunosorbent assay (DOT-ELISA) were used to detect the levels of IgG antibodies against the Fraction 1 (F1) antigen of Yersinia pestis in sera of plague-infected patients from Northeast Brazil. Twenty three selected PHA-positive sera of subjects with bacteriological confirmation of plague were also positive in the DOT-ELISA but only 19 were detected by the conventional ELISA technique. Another group of 186 serum samples from subjects diagnosed as plague-infected by clinical and epidemiological parameters, but PHA-negative, were screened with DOT-ELISA and 11 gave positive results. The specificity of the assays on the serological detection of plague was confirmed in inhibition tests using purified F1 antigen. These results suggest that DOT-ELISA can be an useful, simple and more sensitive alternative for the serodiagnosis of plague in Northeast Brazil.

Rapid diagnostic tests for non-malarial febrile illness in the tropics.

The recent roll-out of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria has highlighted the decreasing proportion of malaria-attributable illness in endemic areas. Unfortunately, once malaria is excluded, there are few accessible diagnostic tools to guide the management of severe febrile illnesses in low resource settings. This review summarizes the current state of RDT development for several key infections, including dengue fever, enteric fever, leptospirosis, brucellosis, visceral leishmaniasis and human African trypanosomiasis, and highlights many remaining gaps. Most RDTs for non-malarial tropical infections currently rely on the detection of host antibodies against a single infectious agent. The sensitivity and specificity of host-antibody detection tests are both inherently limited. Moreover, prolonged antibody responses to many infections preclude the use of most serological RDTs for monitoring response to treatment and/or for diagnosing relapse. Considering these limitations, there is a pressing need for sensitive pathogen-detection-based RDTs, as have been successfully developed for malaria and dengue. Ultimately, integration of RDTs into a validated syndromic approach to tropical fevers is urgently needed. Related research priorities are to define the evolving epidemiology of fever in the tropics, and to determine how combinations of RDTs could be best used to improve the management of severe and treatable infections requiring specific therapy.

Automatització de tests per a una aplicació J2EE

Aquest projecte consisteix en la creació d’una eina que permeti automatitzar els tests que s’han de fer a una aplicació comercial j2ee, amb el propòsit de facilitar i estalviar feina a les persones encarregades de testejar aquesta aplicació, ajudant-les així en la seva tasca de cerca d’errors. Concretament, s’ha creat una aplicació construïda per capes, modulable i fàcilment ampliable, la qual arriba més enllà de l’automatització dels tests més habituals, permetent executar un conjunt de tests per tal de validar si la versió de l’aplicació a testejar és vàlida o no.

Standardization of serological tests for detecting anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in dogs

This paper reports on the standardization of four serological reactions currently used in human serodiagnosis for the detection of anti-Trypanosoma cruzi antibodies in naturally and experimentally infected dogs. Indirect immunofluorescence test (IFAT) and hemagglutination test (IHAT) were standardized, and complement fixation test (CFT) and direct agglutination test (DAT) were used for diagnostic confirmation. Four hundred and eighty one mongrel dogs that were studied by xenodiagnosis were used: (1) parasitemic dogs of two localities of endemic area (EA) of Santiago del Estero province in Argentina (n = 134); (2) non-parasitemic dogs of the same area (n = 285); (3) dogs experimentally infected with T. cruzi in the patent period (n = 6); (4) non-infected dogs (n = 56) which were born in the city of Buenos Aires (BA), one non-EA for Chagas' disease. For IFAT, parasitemic dogs EA showed 95% of reactive sera. Non parasitemic dogs EA showed 77% of non reactive sera. None sera from BA were reactive for dilutions higher than four. For IHAT, 84% of sera of parasitemic dogs EA showed serological reactivity and among non parasitemic dogs BA, 61% were non reactive, while the remainder showed at most titres of 1/16. The cut-off titres for IFAT and IHAT were 1/16 and 1/32 respectively, and for CFT and DAT 1/1 and 1/128 respectively. Sensitivity for IFAT, IHAT, CF and DAT were 95%, 84%, 97% and 95% respectively.

Tests de dépistage de drogues dans les écoles et les entreprises

Problématiques sur le plan éthique, mais aussi sur le plan juridique, les tests de dépistage des substances psychoactives en milieu scolaire et en milieu professionnel renvoient d'abord et avant tout à un examen d'aptitude. Celui-ci est du ressort de l'intervenant médical, sous couvert des garanties d'adéquation, de pertinence et de proportionnalité des moyens d'évaluation mis en oeuvre, ainsi que des règles relatives au consentement et à la confidentialité.

DNA evidence, probabilistic evaluation and collaborative tests.

Forensic scientists working in 12 state or private laboratories participated in collaborative tests to improve the reliability of the presentation of DNA data at trial. These tests were motivated in response to the growing criticism of the power of DNA evidence. The experts' conclusions in the tests are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian approach to interpretation. The use of a Bayesian approach and subjective probabilities in trace evaluation permits, in an easy and intuitive manner, the integration into the decision procedure of any revision of the measure of uncertainty in the light of new information. Such an integration is especially useful with forensic evidence. Furthermore, we believe that this probabilistic model is a useful tool (a) to assist scientists in the assessment of the value of scientific evidence, (b) to help jurists in the interpretation of judicial facts and (c) to clarify the respective roles of scientists and of members of the court. Respondents to the survey were reluctant to apply this methodology in the assessment of DNA evidence.

Possible absence of attraction to odor in Panstrongylus megistus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under laboratory conditions

We tested the attraction of Panstrongylus megistus odor under laboratory conditons, between males and females of this species and by individuals of each sex on recently fed virgin couples. We employed a system of choice boxes both with or without aeration over the stimuli in the tested situations. We also observed a clear trend among the insects to remain in the central box where they had been placed in the beginning of the tests.