Intra-articular corticosteroid for knee osteoarthritis.

BACKGROUND Knee osteoarthritis is a leading cause of chronic pain, disability, and decreased quality of life. Despite the long-standing use of intra-articular corticosteroids, there is an ongoing debate about their benefits and safety. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2005. OBJECTIVES To determine the benefits and harms of intra-articular corticosteroids compared with sham or no intervention in people with knee osteoarthritis in terms of pain, physical function, quality of life, and safety. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and EMBASE (from inception to 3 February 2015), checked trial registers, conference proceedings, reference lists, and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that compared intra-articular corticosteroids with sham injection or no treatment in people with knee osteoarthritis. We applied no language restrictions. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We calculated standardised mean differences (SMDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for pain, function, quality of life, joint space narrowing, and risk ratios (RRs) for safety outcomes. We combined trials using an inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS We identified 27 trials (13 new studies) with 1767 participants in this update. We graded the quality of the evidence as 'low' for all outcomes because treatment effect estimates were inconsistent with great variation across trials, pooled estimates were imprecise and did not rule out relevant or irrelevant clinical effects, and because most trials had a high or unclear risk of bias. Intra-articular corticosteroids appeared to be more beneficial in pain reduction than control interventions (SMD -0.40, 95% CI -0.58 to -0.22), which corresponds to a difference in pain scores of 1.0 cm on a 10-cm visual analogue scale between corticosteroids and sham injection and translates into a number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) of 8 (95% CI 6 to 13). An I(2) statistic of 68% indicated considerable between-trial heterogeneity. A visual inspection of the funnel plot suggested some asymmetry (asymmetry coefficient -1.21, 95%CI -3.58 to 1.17). When stratifying results according to length of follow-up, benefits were moderate at 1 to 2 weeks after end of treatment (SMD -0.48, 95% CI -0.70 to -0.27), small to moderate at 4 to 6 weeks (SMD -0.41, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.21), small at 13 weeks (SMD -0.22, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.00), and no evidence of an effect at 26 weeks (SMD -0.07, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.11). An I(2) statistic of ≥ 63% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity up to 13 weeks after end of treatment (P for heterogeneity≤0.001), and an I(2) of 0% indicated low heterogeneity at 26 weeks (P=0.43). There was evidence of lower treatment effects in trials that randomised on average at least 50 participants per group (P=0.05) or at least 100 participants per group (P=0.013), in trials that used concomittant viscosupplementation (P=0.08), and in trials that used concomitant joint lavage (P≤0.001).Corticosteroids appeared to be more effective in function improvement than control interventions (SMD -0.33, 95% CI -0.56 to -0.09), which corresponds to a difference in functions scores of -0.7 units on standardised Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) disability scale ranging from 0 to 10 and translates into a NNTB of 10 (95% CI 7 to 33). An I(2) statistic of 69% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity. A visual inspection of the funnel plot suggested asymmetry (asymmetry coefficient -4.07, 95% CI -8.08 to -0.05). When stratifying results according to length of follow-up, benefits were small to moderate at 1 to 2 weeks after end of treatment (SMD -0.43, 95% CI -0.72 to -0.14), small to moderate at 4 to 6 weeks (SMD -0.36, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.09), and no evidence of an effect at 13 weeks (SMD -0.13, 95% CI -0.37 to 0.10) or at 26 weeks (SMD 0.06, 95% CI -0.16 to 0.28). An I(2) statistic of ≥ 62% indicated a moderate to large degree of between-trial heterogeneity up to 13 weeks after end of treatment (P for heterogeneity≤0.004), and an I(2) of 0% indicated low heterogeneity at 26 weeks (P=0.52). We found evidence of lower treatment effects in trials that randomised on average at least 50 participants per group (P=0.023), in unpublished trials (P=0.023), in trials that used non-intervention controls (P=0.031), and in trials that used concomitant viscosupplementation (P=0.06).Participants on corticosteroids were 11% less likely to experience adverse events, but confidence intervals included the null effect (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.23, I(2)=0%). Participants on corticosteroids were 67% less likely to withdraw because of adverse events, but confidence intervals were wide and included the null effect (RR 0.33, 95% CI 0.05 to 2.07, I(2)=0%). Participants on corticosteroids were 27% less likely to experience any serious adverse event, but confidence intervals were wide and included the null effect (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.15 to 2.67, I(2)=0%).We found no evidence of an effect of corticosteroids on quality of life compared to control (SMD -0.01, 95% CI -0.30 to 0.28, I(2)=0%). There was also no evidence of an effect of corticosteroids on joint space narrowing compared to control interventions (SMD -0.02, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.46). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Whether there are clinically important benefits of intra-articular corticosteroids after one to six weeks remains unclear in view of the overall quality of the evidence, considerable heterogeneity between trials, and evidence of small-study effects. A single trial included in this review described adequate measures to minimise biases and did not find any benefit of intra-articular corticosteroids.In this update of the systematic review and meta-analysis, we found most of the identified trials that compared intra-articular corticosteroids with sham or non-intervention control small and hampered by low methodological quality. An analysis of multiple time points suggested that effects decrease over time, and our analysis provided no evidence that an effect remains six months after a corticosteroid injection.

Role of calcium, glutamate and NMDA in major depression and therapeutic application

Major depression is a common, recurrent mental illness that affects millions of people worldwide. Recently, a unique fast neuroprotective and antidepressant treatment effect has been observed by ketamine, which acts via the glutamatergic system. Hence, a steady accumulation of evidence supporting a role for the excitatory amino acid neurotransmitter (EAA) glutamate in the treatment of depression has been observed in the last years. Emerging evidence indicates that N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA), group 1 metabotropic glutamate receptor antagonists and α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) agonists have antidepressant properties. Indeed, treatment with NMDA receptor antagonists has shown the ability to sprout new synaptic connections and reverse stress-induced neuronal changes. Based on glutamatergic signaling, a number of therapeutic drugs might gain interest in the future. Several compounds such as ketamine, memantine, amantadine, tianeptine, pioglitazone, riluzole, lamotrigine, AZD6765, magnesium, zinc, guanosine, adenosine aniracetam, traxoprodil (CP-101,606), MK-0657, GLYX-13, NRX-1047, Ro25-6981, LY392098, LY341495, D-cycloserine, D-serine, dextromethorphan, sarcosine, scopolamine, pomaglumetad methionil, LY2140023, LY404039, MGS0039, MPEP, 1-aminocyclopropanecarboxylic acid, all of which target this system, have already been brought up, some of them recently. Drugs targeting the glutamatergic system might open up a promising new territory for the development of drugs to meet the needs of patients with major depression.

Get real in individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is an increasingly used approach for synthesizing and investigating treatment effect estimates. Over the past few years, numerous methods for conducting an IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA) have been proposed, often making different assumptions and modeling choices while addressing a similar research question. We conducted a literature review to provide an overview of methods for performing an IPD-MA using evidence from clinical trials or non-randomized studies when investigating treatment efficacy. With this review, we aim to assist researchers in choosing the appropriate methods and provide recommendations on their implementation when planning and conducting an IPD-MA. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Addition of docetaxel, zoledronic acid, or both to first-line long-term hormone therapy in prostate cancer (STAMPEDE): survival results from an adaptive, multiarm, multistage, platform randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Long-term hormone therapy has been the standard of care for advanced prostate cancer since the 1940s. STAMPEDE is a randomised controlled trial using a multiarm, multistage platform design. It recruits men with high-risk, locally advanced, metastatic or recurrent prostate cancer who are starting first-line long-term hormone therapy. We report primary survival results for three research comparisons testing the addition of zoledronic acid, docetaxel, or their combination to standard of care versus standard of care alone. METHODS Standard of care was hormone therapy for at least 2 years; radiotherapy was encouraged for men with N0M0 disease to November, 2011, then mandated; radiotherapy was optional for men with node-positive non-metastatic (N+M0) disease. Stratified randomisation (via minimisation) allocated men 2:1:1:1 to standard of care only (SOC-only; control), standard of care plus zoledronic acid (SOC + ZA), standard of care plus docetaxel (SOC + Doc), or standard of care with both zoledronic acid and docetaxel (SOC + ZA + Doc). Zoledronic acid (4 mg) was given for six 3-weekly cycles, then 4-weekly until 2 years, and docetaxel (75 mg/m(2)) for six 3-weekly cycles with prednisolone 10 mg daily. There was no blinding to treatment allocation. The primary outcome measure was overall survival. Pairwise comparisons of research versus control had 90% power at 2·5% one-sided α for hazard ratio (HR) 0·75, requiring roughly 400 control arm deaths. Statistical analyses were undertaken with standard log-rank-type methods for time-to-event data, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs derived from adjusted Cox models. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00268476) and ControlledTrials.com (ISRCTN78818544). FINDINGS 2962 men were randomly assigned to four groups between Oct 5, 2005, and March 31, 2013. Median age was 65 years (IQR 60-71). 1817 (61%) men had M+ disease, 448 (15%) had N+/X M0, and 697 (24%) had N0M0. 165 (6%) men were previously treated with local therapy, and median prostate-specific antigen was 65 ng/mL (IQR 23-184). Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 30-60). There were 415 deaths in the control group (347 [84%] prostate cancer). Median overall survival was 71 months (IQR 32 to not reached) for SOC-only, not reached (32 to not reached) for SOC + ZA (HR 0·94, 95% CI 0·79-1·11; p=0·450), 81 months (41 to not reached) for SOC + Doc (0·78, 0·66-0·93; p=0·006), and 76 months (39 to not reached) for SOC + ZA + Doc (0·82, 0·69-0·97; p=0·022). There was no evidence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (for any of the treatments) across prespecified subsets. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported for 399 (32%) patients receiving SOC, 197 (32%) receiving SOC + ZA, 288 (52%) receiving SOC + Doc, and 269 (52%) receiving SOC + ZA + Doc. INTERPRETATION Zoledronic acid showed no evidence of survival improvement and should not be part of standard of care for this population. Docetaxel chemotherapy, given at the time of long-term hormone therapy initiation, showed evidence of improved survival accompanied by an increase in adverse events. Docetaxel treatment should become part of standard of care for adequately fit men commencing long-term hormone therapy. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Novartis, Sanofi-Aventis, Pfizer, Janssen, Astellas, NIHR Clinical Research Network, Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research.

Bivalirudin Versus Heparin Anticoagulation in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: The Randomized BRAVO-3 Trial.

BACKGROUND Anticoagulation is required during transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures. Although an optimal regimen has not been determined, heparin is mainly used. Direct thrombin inhibition with bivalirudin may be an effective alternative to heparin as the procedural anticoagulant agent in this setting. OBJECTIVES The goal of this study was to determine whether bivalirudin offers an alternative to heparin as the procedural anticoagulant agent in patients undergoing TAVR. METHODS A total of 802 patients with aortic stenosis were randomized to undergo transfemoral TAVR with bivalirudin versus unfractionated heparin during the procedure. The 2 primary endpoints were major bleeding within 48 h or before hospital discharge (whichever occurred first) and 30-day net adverse clinical events, defined as the combination of major adverse cardiovascular events (all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) and major bleeding. RESULTS Anticoagulation with bivalirudin versus heparin did not meet superiority because it did not result in significantly lower rates of major bleeding at 48 h (6.9% vs. 9.0%; relative risk: 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.48 to 1.23; p = 0.27) or net adverse cardiovascular events at 30 days (14.4% vs. 16.1%; relative risk: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.64 to 1.24; risk difference: -1.72; 95% CI: -6.70 to 3.25; p = 0.50); regarding the latter, the prespecified noninferiority hypothesis was met (pnoninferiority < 0.01). Rates of major adverse cardiovascular events at 48 h were not significantly different (3.5% vs. 4.8%; relative risk: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.37 to 1.43; p = 0.35). At 48 h, the bivalirudin group had significantly fewer myocardial infarctions but more acute kidney injury events than the heparin group; at 30 days, these differences were no longer significant. CONCLUSIONS In this randomized trial of TAVR procedural pharmacotherapy, bivalirudin did not reduce rates of major bleeding at 48 h or net adverse cardiovascular events within 30 days compared with heparin. Although superiority was not shown, the noninferiority hypothesis was met with respect to the latter factor. Given the lower cost, heparin should remain the standard of care, and bivalirudin can be an alternative anticoagulant option in patients unable to receive heparin in TAVR. (International, Multi-center, Open-label, Randomized Controlled Trial in Patients Undergoing TAVR to Determine the Treatment Effect [Both Safety and Efficacy] of Using Bivalirudin Instead of UFH [BRAVO-2/3]; NCT01651780).

Off-Hour Admission and Outcomes in Patients with Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage in the INTERACT2 Trial

BACKGROUND Conflicting data exist of an association between off-hour (weekend, holiday, or night-time) hospital admission and adverse outcome in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We determined the association between off-hour admissions and poor clinical outcome, and of any differential effect of early intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering treatment between off- and on-hour admissions, among participants of the Intensive BP Reduction in Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage Trial (INTERACT2). METHODS Subsidiary analysis of INTERACT2, a multinational, multicenter, clinical trial of patients with spontaneous ICH with elevated systolic BP, randomly assigned to intensive (target systolic BP <140 mm Hg) or guideline-based (<180 mm Hg) BP management. Primary outcome was death or major disability (modified Rankin scale of 3-6) at 90 days. Off-hour admission was defined as night-time (4:30 p.m. to 8:30 a.m.) on weekdays, weekends (Saturday and Sunday), and public holidays in each participating country. RESULTS Of 2,794 patients with information on the primary outcome, 1,770 (63%) were admitted to study centers during off-hours. Off-hour admission was not associated with risk of poor outcome at 90 days (53% off-hour vs. 55% on-hour; p = 0.49), even after adjustment for comorbid risk factors (odds ratio 0.92; 95% CI 0.76-1.12). Consistency exists in the effects of intensive BP lowering between off- and on-hour admission (p = 0.85 for homogeneity). CONCLUSIONS Off-hour admission was not associated with increased risks of death or major disability among trial protocol participants with acute ICH. Intensive BP lowering can provide similar treatment effect irrespective of admission hours.

Clinical effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy for depression in routine care: A propensity score based comparison between randomized controlled trials and clinical practice

Background: The efficacy of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for the treatment of depressive disorders has been demonstrated in many randomized controlled trials (RCTs). This study investigated whether for CBT similar effects can be expected under routine care conditions when the patients are comparable to those examined in RCTs. Method: N=574 CBT patients from an outpatient clinic were stepwise matched to the patients undergoing CBT in the National Institute of Mental Health Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program (TDCRP). First, the exclusion criteria of the RCT were applied to the naturalistic sample of the outpatient clinic. Second, propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust the remaining naturalistic sample on the basis of baseline covariate distributions. Matched samples were then compared regarding treatment effects using effect sizes, average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) and recovery rates. Results: CBT in the adjusted naturalistic subsample was as effective as in the RCT. However, treatments lasted significantly longer under routine care conditions. Limitations: The samples included only a limited amount of common predictor variables and stemmed from different countries. There might be additional covariates, which could potentially further improve the matching between the samples. Conclusions: CBT for depression in clinical practice might be equally effective as manual-based treatments in RCTs when they are applied to comparable patients. The fact that similar effects under routine conditions were reached with more sessions, however, points to the potential to optimize treatments in clinical practice with respect to their efficiency.

A randomized trial of the effects of the noble gases helium and argon on neuroprotection in a rodent cardiac arrest model.

BACKGROUND The noble gas xenon is considered as a neuroprotective agent, but availability of the gas is limited. Studies on neuroprotection with the abundant noble gases helium and argon demonstrated mixed results, and data regarding neuroprotection after cardiac arrest are scant. We tested the hypothesis that administration of 50% helium or 50% argon for 24 h after resuscitation from cardiac arrest improves clinical and histological outcome in our 8 min rat cardiac arrest model. METHODS Forty animals had cardiac arrest induced with intravenous potassium/esmolol and were randomized to post-resuscitation ventilation with either helium/oxygen, argon/oxygen or air/oxygen for 24 h. Eight additional animals without cardiac arrest served as reference, these animals were not randomized and not included into the statistical analysis. Primary outcome was assessment of neuronal damage in histology of the region I of hippocampus proper (CA1) from those animals surviving until day 5. Secondary outcome was evaluation of neurobehavior by daily testing of a Neurodeficit Score (NDS), the Tape Removal Test (TRT), a simple vertical pole test (VPT) and the Open Field Test (OFT). Because of the non-parametric distribution of the data, the histological assessments were compared with the Kruskal-Wallis test. Treatment effect in repeated measured assessments was estimated with a linear regression with clustered robust standard errors (SE), where normality is less important. RESULTS Twenty-nine out of 40 rats survived until day 5 with significant initial deficits in neurobehavioral, but rapid improvement within all groups randomized to cardiac arrest. There were no statistical significant differences between groups neither in the histological nor in neurobehavioral assessment. CONCLUSIONS The replacement of air with either helium or argon in a 50:50 air/oxygen mixture for 24 h did not improve histological or clinical outcome in rats subjected to 8 min of cardiac arrest.

Bayesian joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data

The joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data is a new approach to many applications such as HIV, cancer vaccine trials and quality of life studies. There are recent developments of the methodologies with respect to each of the components of the joint model as well as statistical processes that link them together. Among these, second order polynomial random effect models and linear mixed effects models are the most commonly used for the longitudinal trajectory function. In this study, we first relax the parametric constraints for polynomial random effect models by using Dirichlet process priors, then three longitudinal markers rather than only one marker are considered in one joint model. Second, we use a linear mixed effect model for the longitudinal process in a joint model analyzing the three markers. In this research these methods were applied to the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis sequential data, which were collected from a clinical trial of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) of the liver. This trial was conducted between 1974 and 1984 at the Mayo Clinic. The effects of three longitudinal markers (1) Total Serum Bilirubin, (2) Serum Albumin and (3) Serum Glutamic-Oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) on patients' survival were investigated. Proportion of treatment effect will also be studied using the proposed joint modeling approaches. ^ Based on the results, we conclude that the proposed modeling approaches yield better fit to the data and give less biased parameter estimates for these trajectory functions than previous methods. Model fit is also improved after considering three longitudinal markers instead of one marker only. The results from analysis of proportion of treatment effects from these joint models indicate same conclusion as that from the final model of Fleming and Harrington (1991), which is Bilirubin and Albumin together has stronger impact in predicting patients' survival and as a surrogate endpoints for treatment. ^

A new combined endpoint using U-statistic in analysis in clinical trials

Common endpoints can be divided into two categories. One is dichotomous endpoints which take only fixed values (most of the time two values). The other is continuous endpoints which can be any real number between two specified values. Choices of primary endpoints are critical in clinical trials. If we only use dichotomous endpoints, the power could be underestimated. If only continuous endpoints are chosen, we may not obtain expected sample size due to occurrence of some significant clinical events. Combined endpoints are used in clinical trials to give additional power. However, current combined endpoints or composite endpoints in cardiovascular disease clinical trials or most clinical trials are endpoints that combine either dichotomous endpoints (total mortality + total hospitalization), or continuous endpoints (risk score). Our present work applied U-statistic to combine one dichotomous endpoint and one continuous endpoint, which has three different assessments and to calculate the sample size and test the hypothesis to see if there is any treatment effect. It is especially useful when some patients cannot provide the most precise measurement due to medical contraindication or some personal reasons. Results show that this method has greater power then the analysis using continuous endpoints alone. ^

Are anatomic brain locations important in determining the clinical outcomes in acute ischemic stroke? --- An exploratory analysis of the NINDS Stroke Trial data

Background and purpose. Brain lesions in acute ischemic stroke measured by imaging tools provide important clinical information for diagnosis and final infarct volume has been considered as a potential surrogate marker for clinical outcomes. Strong correlations have been found between lesion volume and clinical outcomes in the NINDS t-PA Stroke Trial but little has been published about lesion location and clinical outcomes. Studies of the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (NINDS) t-PA Stroke Trial data found the direction of the t-PA treatment effect on a decrease in CT lesion volume was consistent with the observed clinical effects at 3 months, but measure of t-PA treatment benefits using CT lesion volumes showed a diminished statistical significance, as compared to using clinical scales. ^ Methods. We used the global test to evaluate the hypothesis that lesion locations were strongly associated with clinical outcomes within each treatment group at 3 months after stroke. The anatomic locations of CT scans were used for analysis. We also assessed the effect of t-PA on lesion location using a global statistical test. ^ Results. In the t-PA group, patients with frontal lesions had larger infarct volumes and worse NIHSS score at 3 months after stroke. The clinical status of patients with frontal lesions in t-PA group was less likely to be affected by lesion volume, as compared to those who had no frontal lesions in at 3 months. For patients within the placebo group, both brain stem and internal capsule locations were significantly associated with a lower odd of having favorable outcomes at 3 months. Using a global test we could not detect a significant effect of t-PA treatment on lesion location although differences between two treatment groups in the proportion of lesion findings in each location were found. ^ Conclusions. Frontal, brain stem, and internal capsule locations were significantly related to clinical status at 3 months after stroke onset. We detect no significant t-PA effect on all 9 locations although proportion of lesion findings in differed among locations between the two treatment groups.^

Bayesian estimation of multilevel item response model with missing data

This study proposed a novel statistical method that modeled the multiple outcomes and missing data process jointly using item response theory. This method follows the "intent-to-treat" principle in clinical trials and accounts for the correlation between outcomes and missing data process. This method may provide a good solution to chronic mental disorder study. ^ The simulation study demonstrated that if the true model is the proposed model with moderate or strong correlation, ignoring the within correlation may lead to overestimate of the treatment effect and result in more type I error than specified level. Even if the within correlation is small, the performance of proposed model is as good as naïve response model. Thus, the proposed model is robust for different correlation settings if the data is generated by the proposed model.^

A simulation study of the effects of small center enrollment in multi -center clinical trials

Multi-center clinical trials are very common in the development of new drugs and devices. One concern in such trials, is the effect of individual investigational sites enrolling small numbers of patients on the overall result. Can the presence of small centers cause an ineffective treatment to appear effective when treatment-by-center interaction is not statistically significant?^ In this research, simulations are used to study the effect that centers enrolling few patients may have on the analysis of clinical trial data. A multi-center clinical trial with 20 sites is simulated to investigate the effect of a new treatment in comparison to a placebo treatment. Twelve of these 20 investigational sites are considered small, each enrolling less than four patients per treatment group. Three clinical trials are simulated with sample sizes of 100, 170 and 300. The simulated data is generated with various characteristics, one in which treatment should be considered effective and another where treatment is not effective. Qualitative interactions are also produced within the small sites to further investigate the effect of small centers under various conditions.^ Standard analysis of variance methods and the "sometimes-pool" testing procedure are applied to the simulated data. One model investigates treatment and center effect and treatment-by-center interaction. Another model investigates treatment effect alone. These analyses are used to determine the power to detect treatment-by-center interactions, and the probability of type I error.^ We find it is difficult to detect treatment-by-center interactions when only a few investigational sites enrolling a limited number of patients participate in the interaction. However, we find no increased risk of type I error in these situations. In a pooled analysis, when the treatment is not effective, the probability of finding a significant treatment effect in the absence of significant treatment-by-center interaction is well within standard limits of type I error. ^

Bounding ATE with ITT

We propose the bounds on ATE using intention-to-treat (ITT) estimator when there are compliers/noncompliers in randomized trials. The bounds are given as ITTtreatment effect (CACE) can be computed from ITT and complier ratio. We show that these bounds can be derived from two assumptions: (1) average treatment effect is greater with compliers than noncompliers or CACE>NACE, (2) noncompliers' average treatment effect (NACE) is nonnegative. We give an example of poverty impacts of health insurance, and effects of adverse selection and moral hazard of health insurance.

Participation in farmer's cooperatives and its effects on agricultural incomes : evidence from vegetable-producing areas in China

Chinese agricultural cooperatives, called Farmer's Professional Cooperatives (FPCs), are expected to become a major tool to facilitate agro-industrialization for small farmers through the diffusion of new technologies, the supply of high-quality agricultural inputs and the marketing of their products. This study compares FPC participants with vegetable-producing non-participants and grain farmers in vegetable-producing areas in rural China to investigate the treatment effect of participation in FPCs as well as implementation of vegetable cultivation. I adopt parametric and nonparametric approaches to precisely estimate the treatment effects. Estimated results indicate no significant difference between participants and non-participants of FPCs on agricultural net income in both parametric and non-parametric estimations. In contrast, the comparison between vegetable and grain farmers using propensity score matching (PSM) reveals that the treatment effect of vegetable cultivation is significantly positive for total and agricultural incomes, although vegetable cultivation involves more labor-intensive efforts. These results indicate that it is the implementation of vegetable cultivation rather than the participation in an FPC that enhances the economic welfare of farmers, due to the non-excludability of FPCs' services as well as the risks involved in vegetable cultivation.