Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Sexual dimorphism in resource acquisition and deployment: both size and timing matter.

Background and Aims The males and females of many dioecious plant species differ from one another in important life-history traits, such as their size. If male and female reproductive functions draw on different resources, for example, one should expect males and females to display different allocation strategies as they grow. Importantly, these strategies may differ not only between the two sexes, but also between plants of different age and therefore size. Results are presented from an experiment that asks whether males and females of Mercurialis annua, an annual plant with indeterminate growth, differ over time in their allocation of two potentially limiting resources (carbon and nitrogen) to vegetative (below-and above-ground) and reproductive tissues.Methods Comparisons were made of the temporal patterns of biomass allocation to shoots, roots and reproduction and the nitrogen content in the leaves between the sexes of M. annua by harvesting plants of each sex after growth over different periods of time.Key Results and Conclusions Males and females differed in their temporal patterns of allocation. Males allocated more to reproduction than females at early stages, but this trend was reversed at later stages. Importantly, males allocated proportionally more of their biomass towards roots at later stages, but the roots of females were larger in absolute terms. The study points to the important role played by both the timing of resource deployment and the relative versus absolute sizes of the sinks and sources in sexual dimorphism of an annual plant.

Advance directives and the impact of timing. A qualitative study with Swiss general practitioners.

PRINCIPLES: Advance directives are seen as an important tool for documenting the wishes of patients who are no longer competent to make decisions in regards to their medical care. Due to their nature, approaching the subject of advance directives with a patient can be difficult for both the medical care provider and the patient. This paper focuses on general practitioners' perspectives regarding the timing at which this discussion should take place, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the different moments. METHODS: In 2013, 23 semi-structured face-to-face interviews were performed with Swiss general practitioners. Interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: In our sample, 23 general practitioners provided different options that they felt were appropriate moments: either (a) when the patient is still healthy, (b) when illness becomes predominant, or (c) when a patient has been transferred to a long-term care facility. Furthermore, general practitioners reported uncertainty and discomfort regarding initiating the discussion. CONCLUSION: The distinct approaches, perspectives and rationales show that there is no well-defined or "right" moment. However, participants often associated advance directives with death. This link caused discomfort and uncertainty, which led to hesitation and delay on the part of general practitioners. Therefore we recommend further training on how to professionally initiate a conversation about advance directives. Furthermore, based on our results and experience, we recommend an early approach with healthy patients paired with later regular updates as it seems to be the most effective way to inform patients about their end-of-life care options.

How critical is timing for the diagnosis of influenza in general practice?

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: The diagnostic significance of clinical symptoms/signs of influenza has mainly been assessed in the context of controlled studies with stringent inclusion criteria. There was a need to extend the evaluation of these predictors not only in the context of general practice but also according to the duration of symptoms and to the dynamics of the epidemic. PRINCIPLES: A prospective study conducted in the Medical Outpatient Clinic in the winter season 1999-2000. Patients with influenza-like syndrome were included, as long as the primary care physician envisaged the diagnosis of influenza. The physician administered a questionnaire, a throat swab was performed and a culture acquired to document the diagnosis of influenza. RESULTS: 201 patients were included in the study. 52% were culture positive for influenza. By univariate analysis, temperature >37.8 degrees C (OR 4.2; 95% CI 2.3-7.7), duration of symptoms <48 hours (OR 3.2; 1.8-5.7), cough (OR 3.2; 1-10.4) and myalgia (OR 2.8; 1.0-7.5) were associated with a diagnosis of influenza. In a multivariable logistic analysis, the best model predicting influenza was the association of a duration of symptom <48 hours, medical attendance at the beginning of the epidemic (weeks 49-50), fever >37.8 and cough, with a sensitivity of 79%, specificity of 69%, positive predictive value of 67%, negative predictive value of 73% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.74. CONCLUSIONS: Besides relevant symptoms and signs, the physician should also consider the duration of symptoms and the epidemiological context (start, peak or end of the epidemic) in his appraisal, since both parameters considerably modify the value of the clinical predictors when assessing the probability of a patient having influenza.

Timing of di-ammonium phosphate addition to fermenting chardonnay must : effect on nitrogen utilization, ethyl-carbamate formation, and CAR1 expression by yeast /

The maximum amount of ethyl carbamate (EC), a known animal carcinogen produced by the reaction of urea and ethanol, allowed in alcoholic beverages is regulated by legislation in many countries. Wine yeast produce urea by the metabolism of arginine, the predominant assimilable amino acid in must. This action is due to arginase (encoded by CARl). Regulation of CARl, and other genes in this pathway, is often attributed to a well-documented phenomenon known as nitrogen catabolite repression. The effect of the timing of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) additions on the nitrogen utilization, regulation of CARl, and EC production was investigated. A correlation was found between the timing of DAP addition and the utilization of nitrogen. When DAP was added earlier in the fermentations, less amino nitrogen and more ammonia nitrogen was sequestered from the media by the cells. It was also seen that early DAP addition led to more total nitrogen being used, with a maximal difference of ~25% between fermentations where no DAP was added versus addition at the start of the fermentation. The effect of the timing ofDAP addition on the expression of CARJ during fermentation was analyzed via northern transfer and the relative levels of CARl expression were determined. The trends in expression can be correlated to the nitrogen data and be used to partially explain differences in EC formation between the treatments. EC was quantified at the end of fermentation by GC/MS. In Montrachet yeast, a significant positive correlation was found between the timing of DAP addition, from early to late, and the final EC concentration m the wine (r = 0.9226). In one of the fermentations, EC levels of 30.5 ppb was foimd when DAP was added at the onset of fermentation. A twofold increase (69.5 ppb) was observed when DAP was added after 75% of the sugars were metabolized. When no DAP was added, the ethyl carbamate levels are comparable at a value of 38 ppb. In contrast, the timing of DAP additions do not affect the level EC produced by the yeast ECU 18 in this manner. The study of additional yeast strains shows that the effect of DAP addition to fermentations is strain dependent. Our results reveal the potential importance of the timing of DAP addition to grape must with respect to EC production, and the regulatory effect of DAP additions on the expression of genes in the pathway for arginine metabolism in certain wine yeast strains.

DEFORMATION OF INTERIOR LAYERED DEPOSITS (ILD) AND THEIR ASSOCIATED LANDFORMS IN WEST CANDOR CHASMA, MARS: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TIMING OF ILD DEPOSITION

On Mars, interior layered deposits (ILD) provide evidence that water was once stable at the surface of the planet and present in large quantities. In West Candor Chasma, the ILD and their associated landforms record the depositional history of the chasma, and the deformation of those deposits provide insight into the stresses acting on them and the chasma as a whole. The post ILD structural history of West Candor is interpreted by analyzing the spatial relationships and orientation trends of structural features within the ILD. Therecording of stresses through brittle deformation of ILDs implies that the ILD had been lithified before the stress was imposed. Based on the prominent orientation trends of deformation features, the orientation of the stress regime acting upon the ILD appears to be linked to the regime that initially created the chasma-forming faults. An additional minor stress orientation was also revealed and may be related to large structures outside west Candor Chasma. The late depositional history of Ceti Mensa is herein investigated by examining the attributes and spatial relationship between unique corrugated, linear formations (CLF). The CLFs appear to be aeolian in origin but display clear indications of brittle deformation, indicating they have been Iithified. Evidence of lithification and the mineral composition of the surrounding material support the interpretation of circulating water in the area.

Electrophysiological investigations of the timing of face processing

As important social stimuli, faces playa critical role in our lives. Much of our interaction with other people depends on our ability to recognize faces accurately. It has been proposed that face processing consists of different stages and interacts with other systems (Bruce & Young, 1986). At a perceptual level, the initial two stages, namely structural encoding and face recognition, are particularly relevant and are the focus of this dissertation. Event-related potentials (ERPs) are averaged EEG signals time-locked to a particular event (such as the presentation of a face). With their excellent temporal resolution, ERPs can provide important timing information about neural processes. Previous research has identified several ERP components that are especially related to face processing, including the N 170, the P2 and the N250. Their nature with respect to the stages of face processing is still unclear, and is examined in Studies 1 and 2. In Study 1, participants made gender decisions on a large set of female faces interspersed with a few male faces. The ERP responses to facial characteristics of the female faces indicated that the N 170 amplitude from each side of the head was affected by information from eye region and by facial layout: the right N 170 was affected by eye color and by face width, while the left N 170 was affected by eye size and by the relation between the sizes of the top and bottom parts of a face. In contrast, the P100 and the N250 components were largely unaffected by facial characteristics. These results thus provided direct evidence for the link between the N 170 and structural encoding of faces. In Study 2, focusing on the face recognition stage, we manipulated face identity strength by morphing individual faces to an "average" face. Participants performed a face identification task. The effect of face identity strength was found on the late P2 and the N250 components: as identity strength decreased from an individual face to the "average" face, the late P2 increased and the N250 decreased. In contrast, the P100, the N170 and the early P2 components were not affected by face identity strength. These results suggest that face recognition occurs after 200 ms, but not earlier. Finally, because faces are often associated with social information, we investigated in Study 3 how group membership might affect ERP responses to faces. After participants learned in- and out-group memberships of the face stimuli based on arbitrarily assigned nationality and university affiliation, we found that the N170 latency differentiated in-group and out-group faces, taking longer to process the latter. In comparison, without group memberships, there was no difference in N170 latency among the faces. This dissertation provides evidence that at a neural level, structural encoding of faces, indexed by the N170, occurs within 200 ms. Face recognition, indexed by the late P2 and the N250, occurs shortly afterwards between 200 and 300 ms. Social cognitive factors can also influence face processing. The effect is already evident as early as 130-200 ms at the structural encoding stage.

Influence of timing of milk consumption coupled with endurance training on body composition and endurance training adaptations in humans.

Consumption of low-fat milk (LFM) after resistance training has been shown to have positive influences on body composition and training adaptations; however, little research has examined the effects of LFM consumption following endurance training. The purpose of the study was to look at the effects of combining additional servings of LFM following endurance exercise on body composition, bone health, and training adaptations. 40 healthy males were recruited. Individuals were randomized into 4 groups – DEI (750mL LFM immediately post exercise), DEA (750mL LFM 4 hrs prior to or 6 hrs post exercise), CEI (750mL carbohydrate beverage immediately post-exercise), and CEA (750mL carbohydrate beverage immediately post-exercise). Participants took part in a 12-week endurance training intervention (1 h/day, 3 d/wk, ~60% max HR). 22 participants completed the study. Analysis showed significant increases in lean mass, spinal bone mineral content, relative VO2peak, and a decrease in Trap 5β across all groups (p < 0.05).

Examining peer-controlled KR schedules during the learning of a movement-timing task as a function of task experience.

Learners can be provided with feedback in the form of knowledge of results (KR), under self-controlled and peer-controlled schedules. Recently, McRae, Hansen, and Patterson (2015), identified that inexperienced peers can provide KR that can facilitate motor skill acquisition. However, it is currently unknown whether previous task experience differentially impacts how peers present learners with KR and whether this KR impacts motor skill acquisition. In the present study, participants were randomly assigned to become inexperienced peer facilitators, learners with an inexperienced peer, learners with self-control who later became experienced peers, learners with an experienced peer, or learners in a control group. During acquisition learners completed a serial-timing task with a goal of 2500ms and returned approximately twenty four hours later for a delayed retention, time transfer, and pattern transfer test. We predicted that during the delayed tests, learners with self-control would outperform all other groups. Furthermore, we predicted that learners who received KR from experienced peers would outperform learners who received KR from inexperienced peers. However, our results indicated that participants who received peer-controlled and self-controlled KR schedules learned the task in an equivalent manner. Thus, our results are novel as they identify that inexperienced peers can provide KR that is as effective as KR provided by experienced peers and KR requested under self-controlled conditions.

Ideal timing to transfer from an acute care hospital to an interdisciplinary inpatient rehabilitation program following a stroke: an exploratory study

Affiliation: Dany Gagnon & Sylvie Nadeau: École de réadaptation, Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal & Centre de recherche interdisciplinaire en réadaptation, Institut de réadaptation de Montréal

Timing verification in transaction modeling

Les systèmes Matériels/Logiciels deviennent indispensables dans tous les aspects de la vie quotidienne. La présence croissante de ces systèmes dans les différents produits et services incite à trouver des méthodes pour les développer efficacement. Mais une conception efficace de ces systèmes est limitée par plusieurs facteurs, certains d'entre eux sont: la complexité croissante des applications, une augmentation de la densité d'intégration, la nature hétérogène des produits et services, la diminution de temps d’accès au marché. Une modélisation transactionnelle (TLM) est considérée comme un paradigme prometteur permettant de gérer la complexité de conception et fournissant des moyens d’exploration et de validation d'alternatives de conception à des niveaux d’abstraction élevés. Cette recherche propose une méthodologie d’expression de temps dans TLM basée sur une analyse de contraintes temporelles. Nous proposons d'utiliser une combinaison de deux paradigmes de développement pour accélérer la conception: le TLM d'une part et une méthodologie d’expression de temps entre différentes transactions d’autre part. Cette synergie nous permet de combiner dans un seul environnement des méthodes de simulation performantes et des méthodes analytiques formelles. Nous avons proposé un nouvel algorithme de vérification temporelle basé sur la procédure de linéarisation des contraintes de type min/max et une technique d'optimisation afin d'améliorer l'efficacité de l'algorithme. Nous avons complété la description mathématique de tous les types de contraintes présentées dans la littérature. Nous avons développé des méthodes d'exploration et raffinement de système de communication qui nous a permis d'utiliser les algorithmes de vérification temporelle à différents niveaux TLM. Comme il existe plusieurs définitions du TLM, dans le cadre de notre recherche, nous avons défini une méthodologie de spécification et simulation pour des systèmes Matériel/Logiciel basée sur le paradigme de TLM. Dans cette méthodologie plusieurs concepts de modélisation peuvent être considérés séparément. Basée sur l'utilisation des technologies modernes de génie logiciel telles que XML, XSLT, XSD, la programmation orientée objet et plusieurs autres fournies par l’environnement .Net, la méthodologie proposée présente une approche qui rend possible une réutilisation des modèles intermédiaires afin de faire face à la contrainte de temps d’accès au marché. Elle fournit une approche générale dans la modélisation du système qui sépare les différents aspects de conception tels que des modèles de calculs utilisés pour décrire le système à des niveaux d’abstraction multiples. En conséquence, dans le modèle du système nous pouvons clairement identifier la fonctionnalité du système sans les détails reliés aux plateformes de développement et ceci mènera à améliorer la "portabilité" du modèle d'application.

Timing pubertaire et adaptation psychosociale à l'adolescence : le rôle des relations interpersonnelles et des vulnérabilités individuelles

Cette thèse avait pour objectif d’examiner les liens longitudinaux entre le timing pubertaire et les problèmes de comportement intériorisés et extériorisés à l’adolescence, soit les problèmes de conduite et les symptômes dépressifs. Guidé par la perspective théorique biosociale et le modèle de vulnérabilité-stress, le rôle modérateur de l’environnement social et des vulnérabilités personnelles préexistantes était également évalué. Les hypothèses initiales étaient qu’un timing pubertaire précoce ou déviant de la norme (précoce et tardif) serait associé à des niveaux plus élevés de problèmes de conduite et de symptômes dépressifs, mais que ce lien serait accentué dans des contextes sociaux et interpersonnels plus à risque et en présence de vulnérabilités individuelles chez les adolescents. Pour vérifier ces hypothèses, des données provenant de l’Enquête Longitudinale Nationale sur les Enfants et les Jeunes (ELNEJ) ont été analysées. Gérée par Statistique Canada, l’ELNEJ est une enquête prospective biennale comportant différents échantillons représentatifs d’enfants et d’adolescents canadiens. Les mesures utilisées dans cette thèse ont été collectées à différents cycles de l’enquête, soit à 10–11 ans, 12–13 ans, 14–15 ans et 16–17 ans, directement auprès des adolescents et de leurs parents par le biais de questionnaires et d’entrevues. Le premier article de la thèse a vérifié si l’interaction entre le timing pubertaire et des caractéristiques du contexte social des pairs (c.-à-d. l’affiliation avec des pairs déviants et l’implication amoureuse en début d’adolescence) prédisait la présentation de problèmes de conduite avec et sans agressivité physique à l’adolescence. Les résultats ont montré que le contexte social des pairs modérait l’association entre le timing pubertaire et les problèmes de conduite. Une interaction significative entre le timing pubertaire et l’affiliation à des pairs déviants a indiqué qu’une puberté plus précoce était associée à des fréquences plus élevées de problèmes de conduite agressive seulement chez les filles et les garçons qui fréquentaient des pairs déviants. Autrement dit, parmi les adolescents s’affiliant à des pairs déviants en début d’adolescence, les adolescents pubères précoces tendaient à présenter plus de problèmes de conduite agressive deux ans plus tard, en comparaison à leurs pairs pubères dans les temps moyens ou tardifs. Une seconde interaction significative obtenue chez les filles a montré que la puberté plus précoce était prédictrice des problèmes de conduite non-agressive seulement en présence d’un engagement amoureux en début d’adolescence. En effet, dans un contexte d’implication amoureuse, les filles pubères précoces présentaient plus de problèmes de conduite non-agressive que leurs pairs. Le deuxième article de la thèse avait pour objectif d’évaluer le rôle modérateur des vulnérabilités individuelles à la dépression (présence de symptômes intériorisés à la fin de l’enfance), du contexte social des pairs (affiliation à des pairs déviants, expérience amoureuse précoce et perception de popularité auprès des pairs) et des relations parent-adolescent (perception de rejet de la part des parents) dans l’association longitudinale entre le timing pubertaire et les symptômes dépressifs en fin d’adolescence. Chez les filles, une interaction triple a révélé que la puberté plus précoce était liée à davantage de symptômes dépressifs, mais seulement chez celles qui présentaient des symptômes intériorisés à la fin de l’enfance et une implication amoureuse précoce. Chez les garçons, un effet curvilinéaire du timing pubertaire a été observé alors que la puberté précoce et tardive était associée à plus de symptômes dépressifs, mais seulement chez les garçons qui manifestaient des symptômes intériorisés à la fin de l’enfance. La puberté plus précoce était aussi liée à des niveaux plus élevés de symptômes dépressifs en présence d’affiliation à des pairs déviants (garçons) et de perceptions plus importantes de rejet parental (filles et garçons). En somme, la mise en évidence d’interactions significatives entre le timing pubertaire, les caractéristiques de l’environnement social et les vulnérabilités individuelles suscite différentes réflexions au plan théorique et pratique. Tout d’abord, les résultats suggèrent que le timing pubertaire en lui-même ne paraît pas représenter un facteur de risque généralisé des problèmes de comportement intériorisés et extériorisés à l’adolescence. Plus particulièrement, ces résultats soulignent l’importance de considérer l’environnement social et les facteurs de risque individuels préexistants afin de mieux comprendre l’effet de la transition pubertaire sur l’adaptation psychosociale des adolescents.

Incremental Verification of Timing Constraints for Real-Time Systems

Testing constraints for real-time systems are usually verified through the satisfiability of propositional formulae. In this paper, we propose an alternative where the verification of timing constraints can be done by counting the number of truth assignments instead of boolean satisfiability. This number can also tell us how “far away” is a given specification from satisfying its safety assertion. Furthermore, specifications and safety assertions are often modified in an incremental fashion, where problematic bugs are fixed one at a time. To support this development, we propose an incremental algorithm for counting satisfiability. Our proposed incremental algorithm is optimal as no unnecessary nodes are created during each counting. This works for the class of path RTL. To illustrate this application, we show how incremental satisfiability counting can be applied to a well-known rail-road crossing example, particularly when its specification is still being refined.

Ativação do sistema renina-angiotensina-aldosterona em cães assintomáticos com doença mixomatosa valvular mitral

As doenças cardíacas são um achado frequente na prática clínica. Saber se pacientes assintomáticos com doença mixomatosa da válvula mitral necessitam ou não de medicação numa fase inicial da doença não é tarefa fácil. A ativação neuro-hormonal, apesar de ter um efeito benéfico compensatório a curto prazo, torna-se deletéria a longo prazo, sendo que para isso é necessária intervenção farmacológica para inibir a sua atividade O SRAA (sistema renina angiotensina aldosterona) tem importantes mecanismos patofisiológicos implicados no desenvolvimento da insuficiência cardíaca congestiva e tem como produto final a aldosterona, que contribui para a remodelagem cardíaca. Neste trabalho verifiquei a inexistência de uma diferença significativa de valores de aldosterona sérica de cães assintomáticos com Doença Mixomatosa Valvular Mitral (estadio B2 da classificação ACVIM) e os valores do intervalo de referência desta hormona. Concluí também não haver relação entre a idade, ureia, creatinina, rácio Proteina-Creainina, Pressões arteriais sistólica, média e diastólica, frequência de pulso, parâmetros de remodelagem cardíaca e padrão do fluxo transmitral com os valores da aldosterona medidos. É através da evidência destes achados que sugiro a não instituição de um IECA neste tipo de pacientes. O uso precoce de IECA pode não só não trazer vantagens terapêuticas nesta fase da doença como também vai promover o aparecimento precoce de fenómenos de “escape da aldosterona”.

Gestão de processos de ativação e recuperação com o uso das tecnologias nas empresas de Telecom, direcionada a usuários finais, sediado na região oeste do Estado do Pará

O estudo realizado abriu discursão sobre a gestão de processos de ativação e recuperação e o conhecimento dos gestores desses processos relacionados com o uso das tecnologias. A análise objetivou observar a qualidade no atendimento das empresas de Telecom aos clientes da região Oeste do Pará, foi observado as estratégias empregadas por essas empresas para que seus serviços pudessem se tornar mais viáveis, certamente que o compromisso e responsabilidade dos gestores das empresas de Telecom tem sido bastante árdua, as problemáticas geográficas da região em estudo são muitas. Um dos problemas impactantes é a via de acesso da cidade mãe até as cidades vizinhas, depende de barcos, lanchas, balsas ou via terrestre; as adversidades são inúmeras e podem modificar comportamento e forma estratégica de se trabalhar nos processos analisados, inclusive em tempos de chuva a situação fica mais comprometedora aos técnicos de ativação e recuperação. Percebe que esses fatores alteram resultados estipulados pelas empresas, isso faz com que os gestores repensem e refaçam suas estratégias nos dois processos. O trabalho avaliou a estratégia usada pelos gestores de TI (Tecnologia da Informação) ou gestores geral das empresas usuárias para melhor atender sua clientela interna, e conseguir discernir as práticas dos serviços Telecom, melhorando o diálogo com os gestores Telecom, aumentando a qualidade e satisfação de seus clientes internos, tendo um equilíbrio de conhecimento nos conceitos tecnológicos.