Quantum mechanics studies of the tautomers of dlhydrodiacetylformoin, an important Maillard intermediate and the synthesis of furaneol

Conformational analyses have been carried out on the acyclic and cyclic forms of dihydrodiacetylformoin, an important Maillard intermediate and precursor for furaneol. For the acyclic forms, the 2,5-dicarbonyl isomers have the lowest energy, while for the cyclic forms, the 3-carbonyl are favoured over the 4-carbonyl isomers. The likely path for cyclisation is investigated and it is shown that the favoured path is dependent upon the relative chiralities of the carbon atoms and in particular that the reaction proceeds more readily if C2 and C3 have different chiralities. After cyclisation, the reaction path to produce furaneol proceeds via the loss of a water molecule. This reaction has been studied with a model including two water molecules and a hydroxide anion and shows relatively low-energy barriers. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Theoretical and experimental approaches towards the determination of solute effective diffusivities in foods

The aim of this review paper is to present experimental methodologies and the mathematical approaches used to determine effective diffusivities of solutes in food materials. The paper commences by describing the diffusion phenomena related to solute mass transfer in foods and effective diffusivities. It then focuses on the mathematical formulation for the calculation of effective diffusivities considering different diffusion models based on Fick's second law of diffusion. Finally, experimental considerations for effective diffusivity determination are elucidated primarily based on the acquirement of a series of solute content versus time curves appropriate to the equation model chosen. Different factors contributing to the determination of the effective diffusivities such as the structure of food material, temperature, diffusion solvent, agitation, sampling, concentration and different techniques used are considered. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The relationship between absolute and proportion scores of serial order memory: simulation predictions and empirical data

The capability of a feature model of immediate memory (Nairne, 1990; Neath, 2000) to predict and account for a relationship between absolute and proportion scoring of immediate serial recall when memory load is varied (the list-length effect, LLE) is examined. The model correctly predicts the novel finding of an LLE in immediate serial order memory similar to that observed with free recall and previously assumed to be attributable to the long-term memory component of that procedure (Glanzer, 1972). The usefulness of formal models as predictive tools and the continuity between short-term serial order and longer term item memory are considered.

Phylogeny and metabolic scaling in mammals

The scaling of metabolic rates to body size is widely considered to be of great biological and ecological importance, and much attention has been devoted to determining its theoretical and empirical value. Most debate centers on whether the underlying power law describing metabolic rates is 2/3 (as predicted by scaling of surface area/volume relationships) or 3/4 ("Kleiber's law"). Although recent evidence suggests that empirically derived exponents vary among clades with radically different metabolic strategies, such as ectotherms and endotherms, models, such as the metabolic theory of ecology, depend on the assumption that there is at least a predominant, if not universal, metabolic scaling exponent. Most analyses claimed to support the predictions of general models, however, failed to control for phylogeny. We used phylogenetic generalized least-squares models to estimate allometric slopes for both basal metabolic rate (BMR) and field metabolic rate (FMR) in mammals. Metabolic rate scaling conformed to no single theoretical prediction, but varied significantly among phylogenetic lineages. In some lineages we found a 3/4 exponent, in others a 2/3 exponent, and in yet others exponents differed significantly from both theoretical values. Analysis of the phylogenetic signal in the data indicated that the assumptions of neither species-level analysis nor independent contrasts were met. Analyses that assumed no phylogenetic signal in the data (species-level analysis) or a strong phylogenetic signal (independent contrasts), therefore, returned estimates of allometric slopes that were erroneous in 30% and 50% of cases, respectively. Hence, quantitative estimation of the phylogenetic signal is essential for determining scaling exponents. The lack of evidence for a predominant scaling exponent in these analyses suggests that general models of metabolic scaling, and macro-ecological theories that depend on them, have little explanatory power.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Why the home region matters: location and regional multinationals

Much of the literature in international business analysing the multinational enterprise uses the country as the relevant environmental parameter. This paper presents both theoretical and empirical evidence to demonstrate that country-level analysis now needs to be augmented by analysis at the ‘regional’ level of the broad triad markets of Europe, North America and the Asia Pacific. The great majority of the world's 500 largest firms concentrate their activities within their home region of the triad. This study uses variance component analysis and finds that this home region effect outperforms the country effect. Together, the regional and industry effects explain most of the geographic expansion of multinational enterprises (MNEs), whereas country, firm and year effects are very minor. The new data and variance component analysis on the activities of large MNEs reported here suggest that new thinking is required about the importance of large regions of the triad as the relevant unit of analysis for business strategy to supplement the conventional focus on the country.

Energetics, lifestyle, and reproduction in birds

Theoretical and empirical studies of life history aim to account for resource allocation to the different components of fitness: survival, growth, and reproduction. The pioneering evolutionary ecologist David Lack [(1968) Ecological Adaptations for Breeding in Birds (Methuen and Co.,London)] suggested that reproductive output in birds reflects adaptation to environmental factors such as availability of food and risk of predation, but subsequent studies have not always supported Lack’s interpretation. Here using a dataset for 980 bird species (Dataset S1), a phylogeny, and an explicit measure of reproductive productivity, we test predictions for how mass-specific productivity varies with body size, phylogeny,and lifestyle traits. We find that productivity varies negatively with body size and energetic demands of parental care and positively with extrinsic mortality. Specifically: (i) altricial species are 50% less productive than precocial species; (ii) species with female-only care of offspring are about 20% less productive than species with other methods of parental care; (iii) nonmigrants are 14% less productive than migrants; (iv) frugivores and nectarivores are about 20% less productive than those eating other foods; and (v) pelagic foragers are 40% less productive than those feeding in other habitats. A strong signal of phylogeny suggests that syndromes of similar life-history traits tend to be conservative within clades but also to have evolved independently in different clades. Our results generally support both Lack’s pioneering studies and subsequent research on avian life history.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Commodity price dynamics and derivatives valuation: a review

This paper reviews extant research on commodity price dynamics and commodity derivatives pricing models. In the first half, we provide an overview of stylized facts of commodity price behavior that have been explored and documented in the theoretical and empirical literature. In the second half, we review existing derivatives pricing models and discuss how the peculiarities of commodity markets have been integrated in these models. We conclude the paper with a brief outlook on important research questions that need to be addressed in the future.