Rebound and disinvestment effects in oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector

In this paper we use an energy-economy-environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

The threat of reintroduction of natural transmission of Chagas' disease in Bambuí, Minas Gerais state, Brazil, due to Panstrongylus megistus

In the Epidemiological Surveillance Program in the county of Bambuí, Minas Gerais, between August 1986 and December 1988, 154 Panstrongylus megistus were captured by the local population in both peridomicile and intradomicile environments. Fifteen (9.8%) of the P. megistus harboured Trypanosoma cruzi. Preciptin tests showed that the most frequent triatomine blood meal sources were birds, but other sources were dogs, men and cats. The isoenzyme characterization of 13 T. cruzi strains showed that six belonged to zymodeme Z1, corresponding to the wild parasites, and seven belonged to zymodeme Z2, corresponding to parasites isolated from chronic chagasic patients (domestic cycle). As P. megistus were found to be naturally infected by parasites from both cycles, they are cleary able to transmit T. cruzi from the wild cycle to the domestic cycle. Furthermore the capacity of P. megistus in colonizing houses was observed in one residence, vacant for several years, in wich 153 triatomines were captured. The data show the possibility of P. megistus reintroducing transmission of Chaga's disease in the county if Epidemiological Surveillance is interrupted.

Inter-relation of sylvatic and domestic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in areas with and without domestic vectorial transmission in Minas Gerais, Brazil

During the period 1980-1986, we captured triatomine bugs and mammalian reservoir hosts from sylvatic and domestic situations in different municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais. Trypanosoma cruzi was isolated from captured bugs, mammals and patients. After cultivation in LIT medium, the electrophoretic enzyme profiles were determined. We obtained atotal of 32 parasite isolates from regions with active domestic transmission, and 24 isolates form areas under control. For the first areas the results suggest introduction of T. cruzi from sylvatic habitats, through incursion of infected opossums and/or sylvatic T. sordida, which appears to have given rise to at least one acute human infection. Of particular interest is the finding of sylvatic opossums and a T. sordida nymph infected with ZB, that could indicate return of parasites from chronic human infections to sylvatic transmission cycles. For the areas under control we also interpret the results as interaction between sylvatic and domestic cycles of transmission, here through the invasion of houses by bugs carrying the Z1 zymodeme from the sylvatic environment. The Multivariate Correspondence Analysis gives a spatial description between the different parasite isolates and confirms the existence of a bridge in the opposite direction in the region with active vectorial transmission including the exporting of Z2 through the peridomestic environment into the sylvatic cycle. For the others areas this bridge corresponds especially to Panstrongylus megistus, importing Z1 into the domestic environment.

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Study on the Elimination of Angiostrongylus costaricensis First Stage Larvae in the Experimental Infection of Swiss Mice

Abdominal angiostrongylosis is a nematode infection of wild rodents. Human infection may result in severe abdominal disease and has been reported from several countries in the Americas. The domestic mouse, Mus musculus, has not been found with natural infection and, like other urban rodents, should not be considered a natural host for Angiostrongylus costaricensis. Quantification of parasitic forms released for transmission may better express the coevolutionary status in parasite-host relationship. With this objective, five groups of experimentally infected Swiss mice were followed for up to 155 days post-infection (PI) days and the quantification of first stage larvae (L1) output revealed: an irregular elimination of L1 and a huge variation in the patency period (1 to 114 days) and in the number of L1 eliminated daily by individual animals (1 to 6340 L1/g). Overall mortality was 72% (range: 28% to 100%) at seven weeks PI. In conclusion, abdominal angiostrongylosis in M. musculus presents high mortality and a very variable and irregular elimination of L1 in feces.

TGFBI (BIGH3) gene mutations in German families: two novel mutations associated with unique clinical and histopathological findings.

BACKGROUND: To report the clinical, histopathological and immunohistochemical findings of two novel mutations within the TGFBI gene. METHODS: The genotype of 41 affected members of 16 families and nine sporadic cases was investigated by direct sequencing of the TGFBI gene. Clinical, histological and immunohistochemical characteristics of corneal opacification were reported and compared with the coding region changes in the TGFBI gene. RESULTS: A novel mutation Leu509Pro was detected in one family with a geographic pattern-like clinical phenotype. Histopathologically we found amyloid together with non-amyloid deposits and immunohistochemical staining of Keratoepithelin (KE) KE2 and KE15 antibodies. In two families and one sporadic case the novel mutation Gly623Arg with a late-onset, map-like corneal dystrophy was identified. Here amyloid and immunohistochemical staining of only KE2 antibodies occurred. Further, five already known mutations are reported: Arg124Cys Arg555Trp Arg124His His626Arg, Ala546Asp in 13 families and five sporadic cases of German origin. The underlying gene defect within the TBFBI gene was not identified in any of the four probands with Thiel-Behnke corneal dystrophy. CONCLUSIONS: The two novel mutations within the TGFBI gene add another two phenotypes with atypical immunohistochemical and histopathological features to those so far reported.

The impact of Chagas disease control in Latin America: a review

Discovered in 1909, Chagas disease was progressively shown to be widespread throughout Latin America, affecting millions of rural people with a high impact on morbidity and mortality. With no vaccine or specific treatment available for large-scale public health interventions, the main control strategy relies on prevention of transmission, principally by eliminating the domestic insect vectors and control of transmission by blood transfusion. Vector control activities began in the 1940s, initially by means of housing improvement and then through insecticide spraying following successful field trials in Brazil (Bambui Research Centre), with similar results soon reproduced in São Paulo, Argentina, Venezuela and Chile. But national control programmes only began to be implemented after the 1970s, when technical questions were overcome and the scientific demonstration of the high social impact of Chagas disease was used to encourage political determination in favour of national campaigns (mainly in Brazil). Similarly, large-scale screening of infected blood donors in Latin America only began in the 1980s following the emergence of AIDS. By the end of the last century it became clear that continuous control in contiguous endemic areas could lead to the elimination of the most highly domestic vector populations - especially Triatoma infestans and Rhodnius prolixus - as well as substantial reductions of other widespread species such as T. brasiliensis, T. sordida, and T. dimidiata, leading in turn to interruption of disease transmission to rural people. The social impact of Chagas disease control can now be readily demonstrated by the disappearance of acute cases and of new infections in younger age groups, as well as progressive reductions of mortality and morbidity rates in controlled areas. In economic terms, the cost-benefit relationship between intervention (insecticide spraying, serology in blood banks) and the reduction of Chagas disease (in terms of medical and social care and improved productivity) is highly positive. Effective control of Chagas disease is now seen as an attainable goal that depends primarily on maintaining political will, so that the major constraints involve problems associated with the decentralisation of public health services and the progressive political disinterest in Chagas disease. Counterbalancing this are the political and technical cooperation strategies such as the "Southern Cone Initiative" launched in 1991. This international approach, coordinated by PAHO, has been highly successful, already reaching elimination of Chagas disease transmission in Uruguay, Chile, and large parts of Brazil and Argentina. The Southern Cone Initiative also helped to stimulate control campaigns in other countries of the region (Paraguay, Bolivia, Peru) which have also reached tangible regional successes. This model of international activity has been shown to be feasible and effective, with similar initiatives developed since 1997 in the Andean Region and in Central America. At present, Mexico and the Amazon Region remain as the next major challenges. With consolidation of operational programmes in all endemic countries, the future focus will be on epidemiological surveillance and care of those people already infected. In political terms, the control of Chagas disease in Latin America can be considered, so far, as a victory for international scientific cooperation, but will require continuing political commitment for sustained success.

Lutzomyia longipalpis and the eco-epidemiology of American visceral leishmaniasis, with particular reference to Brazil: a review

An historical review is given of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL), with particular reference to the eco-epidemiology of the disease in Brazil. Following the first records of AVL in this country, in 1934, the sandfly Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz and Neiva, 1912) was incriminated as the principal vector. It is now generally accepted, however, that there exist a number of cryptic species under the name of Lu. longipalpis s.l. and that variations in the quantity of the vasodilatory peptide maxadilan in the saliva of flies from different populations of Lu. longipalpis s.l., may account for the variable clinical manifestations of AVL seen in different geographic regions. Distribution of AVL has been shown to extend throughout most of South and Central America, with the domestic dog serving as the principal reservoir of infection for man. However, while one hypothesis suggests that the causative parasite is Leishmania infantum, imported from Europe with the Portuguese and Spanish colonists, the demonstration of a high rate of benign, inapparent infection in foxes in Amazonian Brazil raised an opposing suggestion that the parasite is indigenous to the Americas. Recent reports of similar infections in native marsupials, and possibly rodents, tend to support this view, particularly as Lu. longipalpis is primordially a silvatic sandfly. Although effective control measures in foci of the disease will diminish the number of canine and human infections, the presence of such an enzootic in a variety of native animals will render the total eradication of AVL unlikely.

Serologic evidence of Leishmania infection in free-ranging wild and domestic canids around a Brazilian National Park

Transmission of disease between wildlife, domestic animals, and humans is of great concern to conservation issues and public health. Here we report on the prevalence of anti-Leishmania sp. antibodies in 21 wild canids (7 Chrysocyon brachyurus, 12 Cerdocyon thous, and 2 Lycalopex vetulus) and 74 free domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) sampled around the Serra do Cipó National Park. In dogs, the apparent prevalence was 8.1% and in wild canids it was 19% (2 crab-eating foxes, C. thous, and 2 maned wolves, C. brachyurus). Management of the domestic dog population with evaluation of incidence changes in humans and wildlife, and enlightenment on the role of wild reservoirs are essential issues for future action and research.

The Politics of Network Governance in Europe: The Case of Energy Regulation

Networks are considered increasingly important for policy-making. The literature on new modes of governance in Europe suggests that their horizontal coordination capacity and flexible and informal structures are particularly suitable for governing the multilevel architecture of the European polity. However, empirical evidence about the effects of networks on policy-making and public policies is still quite limited. This article uses the case of the European network of energy regulators to explore the determinants of the position of network members and, in turn, the domestic adoption of soft rules developed within this network. The empirical analysis, based on multivariate statistics and semi-directive interviews, supports the expectation that institutional complementarities increase actors' centrality in networks, while arguments based on organisational resources and age are disproved. Furthermore, results show that the overall level of adoption is considerable and that centrality might have a small positive effect on domestic adoption.

Serosurvey Study of Toscana Virus in Domestic Animals, Granada, Spain

Toscana virus (TOSV) is transmitted by infected sandflies. In Mediterranean countries, TOSV is one of the major viral pathogens involved in aseptic meningitis and meningoencephalitis in humans. It remains unclear if there are animal reservoirs able to maintain the virus through the cold months of the year, when the vector is not circulating. From May to October of 2006 and 2007, we conducted a serosurvey study on domestic animals from Granada province (southern Spain). TOSV was investigated in 1186 serum samples from horses, goats, pigs, cats, dogs, sheep, and cows by serology (indirect fluorescence assay), viral culture, and RT-polymerase chain reaction. Specific anti-TOSV antibodies were detected in 429 (36.2%) serum samples. The highest seropositivity rates were observed in cats (59.6%) and dogs (48.3%). These results suggest that an important percentage of the domestic animals have been infected by TOSV. Significantly different seroprevalence rates were detected in goats among distinct geographical areas. All viral cultures were negative. TOSV was detected by RT-polymerase chain reaction in only one serum sample from a goat. Thus, the studied animals do not seem to act as reservoirs for TOSV; otherwise, they could be amplifying hosts for the virus.

Susceptibility of Triatoma brasiliensis from state of Ceará, Northeastern Brazil, to the pyrethroid deltamethrin

After controlling Triatoma infestans in Brazil, other species of triatomine that were considered minor in the transmission of Chagas disease became important. The persistence of Triatoma brasiliensis in Northeastern Brazil, associated with reinfection of domestic environments recently sprayed with pyrethroids, may be a signal of susceptibility alteration of this species to this insecticide. Specimens of T. brasiliensis from the municipality of Tauá, state of Ceará, were captured before and one year after spraying. They were submitted to bioassays using deltamethrin. The LD50 ranged from 0.19-0.33 ng of deltamethrin/nymph. The resistance ratio among samples from Tauá varied from 1.16-1.79 in the samples captured before the spraying and 1.00-1.74 in the samples captured one year after spraying, demonstrating that the two populations were equally susceptible to deltamethrin. The small difference in susceptibility between the two captures suggests that T. brasiliensis obtained in the second capture are from new invasions of the domestic environment and that the insecticide did not select resistant individuals. Therefore, it is suggested that T. brasiliensis control be carried out supplementing the regular use of pyrethroids with complementary measures, such as improvement of the dwellings and health education.

Sylvatic foci of the Chagas disease vector Triatoma infestans in Chile: description of a new focus and challenges for control programs

Triatoma infestans is one of the main domestic vectors of Chagas disease. Reports of wild habitat occurrences have recently increased. In Chile, after a successful elimination campaign of T. infestans domestic infestation, a sylvatic focus was reported in bromeliads in the metropolitan region. Here, we report a new focus of sylvatic T. infestans inhabiting rock piles in the Valparaíso region in central Chile. All T. infestans captured were nymphal instars living among the stones, which were inhabited by several mammal species, along with the sylvatic triatomine vector Mepraia spinolai. We found a prevalence of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi of 36.54% in T. infestans, similar to the previous report for sylvatic specimens from bromeliads. Sylvatic populations of T. infestans should be studied at different geographic scales to elucidate their role in the maintenance of the sylvatic transmission cycle of T. cruzi and their possible role in threatening the domestic elimination of this vector. This information should be used to re-design the control programs in Chile to avoid the re-establishment of the domestic cycle.

Species diversity of sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) during different seasons and in different environments in the district of Taquaruçú, state of Tocantins, Brazil

Phlebotomine sandflies are the vectors for the protozoan parasites that cause leishmaniasis. The present study investigated the species composition of sandfly fauna in the rural district of Taquaruçú, municipality of Palmas, state of Tocantins, Brazil and compared the diversity of species among intradomicile, peridomicile and forest environments during the dry and rainy seasons. Sandflies were collected using CDC light traps over the course of three months during the dry and rainy seasons. A total of 767 specimens were captured, belonging to different 32 species. The most abundant species were Micropygomyia goiana (Martins, Falcão & Silva), Sciopemyia sordellii (Shannon & Del Ponte), Evandromyia carmelinoi (Ryan Fraiha, Lainson & Shaw), Evandromyia termitophila (Martins, Falcão & Silva), Nyssomyia whitmani (Antunes & Coutinho) and Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & Neiva). The highest species diversity (30) and the greatest percentage of specimens (78.3%) were obtained during the rainy season. During the dry season, the species richness and abundance were greater in domestic environments. However, during the rainy season, the forest displayed the highest species richness and the domestic environment exhibited the greatest species abundance. Several important vector species are reported in this study.