Avaliação do potencial da produção de energia elétrica através de resíduos urbanos em Portugal Continental. Horizonte Temporal 2014-2020

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil de Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Tendência temporal do tétano acidental no período de 1981 a 2004 em Pernambuco com avaliação do impacto da assistência em unidade de terapia intensiva sobre a letalidade

Apesar da redução na incidência de tétano acidental no Brasil, não houve queda significativa na letalidade. Nesta série de casos, comparamos a letalidade antes e após o estabelecimento padrão de manejo em unidade de terapia intensiva do paciente com tétano no Hospital Universitário Oswaldo Cruz, no período de 1981 a 2004. Em 24 anos, foram internados 1.971 pacientes e antes do manejo em Unidade de terapia intensiva a letalidade era de 35%. Durante 1997 foi instituída a unidade de terapia intensiva para assistência dos pacientes com tétano, e de 1998 a 2004, a letalidade caiu para 12,6%, OR= 0,27 (IC95%= 0,18- 0,39); p<0,001. Esta tendência foi evidenciada em todas as faixas etárias e em ambos os sexos. A centralização da assistência a esses pacientes em um único serviço especializado com Unidade de terapia intensiva de forma precoce, portanto, tem sido decisiva na redução da letalidade, por contar com a vasta experiência da equipe de saúde no manejo do tétano e melhor tratamento sintomático, antecipando as graves complicações da doença.

A epidemia de aids no Estado de São Paulo: uma aplicação do modelo espaço-temporal bayesiano completo

O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece uma situação propícia para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Utilizando os casos de aids notificados ao Ministério da Saúde nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos, tendo como fonte de informação o Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, Ministério da Saúde, foram estimados os riscos relativos de aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos. Os modelos utilizados se mostraram adequados para explicar o processo de disseminação da aids no Estado de São Paulo e evidenciam os processos de feminização e interiorização da doença, além de sugerir que os municípios atualmente mais atingidos se encontram em regiões de pólos de crescimento econômico e possuem população inferior a 50.000 habitantes.

Análise da distribuição espaço-temporal de dengue e da infestação larvária no município de Tupã, Estado de São Paulo

INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus da dengue é transmitido pela picada do mosquito Aedes aegypti e, o atual programa de controle não atinge o objetivo de impedir sua transmissão. Este trabalho objetivou analisar a relação entre a distribuição espaço-temporal de casos de dengue e os indicadores larvários no município de Tupã, de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2007. MÉTODOS: Foram construídos indicadores larvários por quarteirão e totalidade do município. Utilizou-se o método cross-lagged correlation para avaliar a correlação entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários. Foi utilizado estimador kernel para análise espacial. RESULTADOS: A correlação cruzada defasada entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários foi significativa. Os mapas do estimador Kernel da positividade de recipientes indicam uma distribuição heterogênea, ao longo do período estudado. Nos dois anos de transmissão, a epidemia ocorreu em diferentes regiões. CONCLUSÕES: Não ficou evidenciada relação espacial entre infestação larvária e ocorrência de dengue. A incorporação de técnicas de geoprocessamento e análise espacial no programa, desde que utilizados imediatamente após a realização das atividades, podem contribuir com as ações de controle, indicando os aglomerados espaciais de maior incidência.

Um Sistema para evolução espácio-temporal de imagens

Atualmente os computadores, os telemóveis mais recentes e as câmaras fotográficas têm o poder de capturar momentos, e estes momentos são gravados em fotografias. Hoje em dia são tiradas imensas fotografias em todas as partes do mundo e com isto surgem alguns problemas, tais como organizar e visualizar as fotografias de forma a transmitir o sentimento e o momento vivido. Procura-se ainda como inovar e dar uma perceção evolutiva de estruturas ou de pessoas captadas nas fotografias. É neste contexto que esta dissertação se insere. A dissertação tem como principal objetivo, oferecer uma ferramenta que consiga proporcionar uma viagem cronológica ao longo do tempo, do passado até ao presente, dado um conjunto de imagens de várias épocas. A ferramenta, chamada Evolapse, permite visualizar uma representação tridimensional de um conjunto de imagens, podendo visualizar imagens de várias épocas para a mesma localização geográfica. A Evolapse processa automaticamente comparações entre imagens e estabelece relações entre as mesmas. Também oferece um método semiautomático para criar as relações. Todas as relações estabelecidas automaticamente e criadas, recorrendo ao método semi-automático, podem ser editadas. A ferramenta foi desenvolvida no âmbito do projeto LX Conventos e os seus resultados são testados no website do projeto. De modo a testar os resultados, a ferramenta produz documentos descritivos que contêm toda a informação necessária para reconstruir a representação tridimensional. O website do projeto LX Conventos ficará disponível ao público, dando a possibilidade a múltiplos utilizadores de visualizarem os resultados gerados pela ferramenta.

Effects of flooding of the River Paraná on the temporal activity of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) darlingi Root (Diptera: Culicidae), at the border state of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Study of the temporal activity of malaria vectors during the implantation of a hydroelectric power station on the River Paraná, intended to generate electrical energy. The river separates the States of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, in Brazil. The objective was to verify whether alterations occurred in the wealth and diversity indices of Anopheles, following two successive floods, extended to the temporal activity and nycthemeral rhythm followed over a five year period. METHODS: Mosquito capture was performed monthly using the Human Attraction Technique and Shannon Traps. The first, executed for 24h, provided the nycthemeral rhythm and the second, lasting 15h, permitted the tracking of Anopheles during the two floods. RESULTS: The bimodal pattern of Anopheles darlingi defined before these floods was modified throughout the environment interventions. The same effect had repercussions on the populations of An albitarsis s.l., An triannulatus and An galvaoi. Activity prior to twilight was less affected by the environment alterations. CONCLUSIONS: The dam construction provoked changes in Anopheles temporal activity patterns, permitting classification of the area as an ecologically steady and unstable situation. Differences observed in Anopheles behavior due to the capture methods revealed the influence of solo and multiple attractiveness inside the populations studied.

Analysis of temporal and spatial variations of forest. A case of study in notheastern Armenia

The forest has a crucial ecological role and the continuous forest loss can cause colossal effects on the environment. As Armenia is one of the low forest covered countries in the world, this problem is more critical. Continuous forest disturbances mainly caused by illegal logging started from the early 1990s had a huge damage on the forest ecosystem by decreasing the forest productivity and making more areas vulnerable to erosion. Another aspect of the Armenian forest is the lack of continuous monitoring and absence of accurate estimation of the level of cuts in some years. In order to have insight about the forest and the disturbances in the long period of time we used Landsat TM/ETM + images. Google Earth Engine JavaScript API was used, which is an online tool enabling the access and analysis of a great amount of satellite imagery. To overcome the data availability problem caused by the gap in the Landsat series in 1988- 1998, extensive cloud cover in the study area and the missing scan lines, we used pixel based compositing for the temporal window of leaf on vegetation (June-late September). Subsequently, pixel based linear regression analyses were performed. Vegetation indices derived from the 10 biannual composites for the years 1984-2014 were used for trend analysis. In order to derive the disturbances only in forests, forest cover layer was aggregated and the original composites were masked. It has been found, that around 23% of forests were disturbed during the study period.

A epidemia de AIDS em adolescentes de 13 a 19 anos, no município do Rio de Janeiro: descrição espaço-temporal

INTRODUÇÃO: o objetivo do estudo foi analisar a epidemia de AIDS em adolescentes no município do Rio de Janeiro para subsidiar políticas públicas de prevenção. A incidência de AIDS no Brasil está diminuindo entre homens que fazem sexo com homens (HSH), exceto entre 13 e 19 anos e a feminização é mais intensa entre adolescentes. MÉTODOS: Estudo de dados do Sistema de Informações de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) de casos diagnosticados, entre 13 e 19 anos até novembro de 2009. RESULTADOS: Foram analisados 656 casos, com incidência crescente até 1998 e verificou-se que, desde 1996, ocorrem mais casos no sexo feminino do que no masculino. A categoria de exposição homo/bissexual é predominante nos rapazes (50,8%) e a heterossexual nas moças (88,9%). A distribuição geográfica dos casos no município por ano de diagnóstico revelou que houve proporcionalmente grande aumento da incidência na Área de Planejamento mais pobre da cidade e redução acentuada na mais rica. Observou-se uma tendência linear decrescente entre o ano de diagnóstico e o índice de desenvolvimento humano (IDH). CONCLUSÕES: O estudo aponta a necessidade de investimento em serviços de saúde sexual e reprodutiva nas áreas mais pobres da cidade e ações de promoção de saúde direcionadas aos rapazes HSH e às adolescentes.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Young adults' preferences and satisfaction levels in Duty-free shopping in airports

This study aims to explore and understand what young adults’ duty free shoppers (18-26 years old) want and are getting from travel retail shopping on airport environments and to evaluate their satisfaction levels with the service. It has important managerial contributions since it is an important target in a fast growing market. An online survey was conducted with 188 young adults and its results show that young adults’ are somewhat satisfied with the overall service on duty free stores mainly in what concerns quality of the products and physical evidence of the stores. Results also show that the majority of buyers within this segment are price driven and strongly influenced by promotions associated with price reductions, and do not seem very satisfied with respect to that. Keywords: Young

Composition, abundance and aspects of temporal variation in the distribution of Anopheles species in an area of Eastern Amazonia

Introduction The diverse and complex environmental conditions of the Amazon Basin favor the breeding and development of Anopheles species. This study aimed to describe the composition, abundance and temporal frequency of Anopheles species and to correlate these factors with precipitation, temperature and relative humidity. Methods The study was conducted in the District of Coração, State of Amapá, Brazil. Samples were collected monthly during three consecutive nights, from 6:00 PM to 10:00 PM, from December 2010 to November 2011. In addition, four 12-hour collections (i.e., 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM) were performed during this period. Results A total of 1,230 Anopheles specimens were collected. In the monthly collections, Anopheles darlingi was the predominant species, followed by An. braziliensis and An. albitarsis s.l., whereas An. darlingi, An. peryassui and An. braziliensis were the most frequent species collected in the 12-hour collections. The greatest number of anophelines was collected in September (the dry season). The highest frequency of anophelines was observed for An. darlingi during September, when there were the least rainfalls of the year, along with lower relative humidity and higher temperatures. There was little variation in the abundance of this species in other months, with the exception of slight increases in February, July and August. Conclusions The major malaria vectors, An. darlingi and An. albitarsis s.l. (likely An. marajoara), were the most abundant species collected in the study area. Consequently, prevention and control measures should be taken to prevent malaria outbreaks in the District of Coração.

Temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of visceral leishmaniasis in humans in the City of Birigui, State of São Paulo, from 1999 to 2012

Introduction In 1999, Birigui and Araçatuba were the first municipalities in the State of São Paulo to present autochthonous cases of visceral leishmaniasis in humans (VLH). The aim of this study was to describe the temporal, spatial and spatiotemporal behaviors of VLH in Birigui. Methods Secondary data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 1999 to 2012. The incidence, mortality and case fatality rates by sex and age were calculated. The cases of VLH were geocoded and grouped according to census tracts. Local empirical Bayesian incidence rates were calculated. The existence of spatial and spatiotemporal clusters was investigated using SaTScan software. Results There were 156 confirmed cases of autochthonous VLH. The incidence rate was higher in the 0-4-year-old children, and the mortality and case fatality rates were higher in people aged 60 years and older. The peaks of incidence occurred in 2006 and 2011. The Bayesian rates identified the presence of VLH in all of the census tracts in the municipality; however, spatial and spatiotemporal clusters were found in the central area of the municipality. Conclusions Birigui, located in the Araçatuba region, has recently experienced increasing numbers of VLH cases; this increase is contrary to the behavior observed over the entire region, which has shown a decreasing trend in the number of VLH cases. The observations that the highest incidence is in children 0-4 years old and the highest mortality is in people 60 years and older are in agreement with the expected patterns of VLH.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Relação entre as variáveis sociais, económicas e ambientais com o padrão da distribuição espaço-temporal dos casos de Dengue por munícipio no Brasil : de 2008 até 2012, utilizando o SOM

Atualmente, um dos principais desafios que afeta a saúde pública no Brasil é a crescente evolução no número de casos e epidemias provocados pelo vírus da dengue. Não existem estudos suficientes que consigam elucidar quais fatores contribuem para a evolução das epidemias de Dengue. Fatores como condições sanitárias, localização geográfica, investimentos financeiros em infraestrutura e qualidade de vida podem estar relacionados com a incidência de Dengue. Além disso, outra questão que merece um maior destaque é o estudo para se identificar o grau de impacto das variáveis determinantes da dengue e se existe um padrão que está correlacionado com a taxa de incidência. Desta forma, este trabalho tem como objetivo principal a correlação da taxa de incidência da dengue na população de cada município brasileiro, utilizando dados relativos aos aspectos sociais, econômicos, demográficos e ambientais. Outra contribuição relevante do trabalho, foi a análise dos padrões de distribuição espacial da taxa de incidência de Dengue e sua relação com os padrões encontrados utilizando as variáveis socioeconômicas e ambientais, sobretudo analisando a evolução temporal no período de 2008 até 2012. Para essa análises, utilizou-se o Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG) aliado com a mineração de dados, através da metodologia de rede neural mais especificamente o mapa auto organizável de Kohonen ou self-organizing maps (SOM). Tal metodologia foi empregada para a identificação de padrão de agrupamentos dessas variáveis e sua relação com as classes de incidência de dengue no Brasil (Alta, Média e Baixa). Assim, este projeto contribui de forma significativa para uma melhor compreensão dos fatores que estão associados à ocorrência de Dengue, e como essa doença está correlacionada com fatores como: meio ambiente, infraestrutura e localização no espaço geográfico.

Temporal distribution of tuberculosis in the State of Amazonas, Brazil

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the infectious diseases that contributes most to the morbidity and mortality of millions of people worldwide. Brazil is one of 22 countries that accounts for 80% of the tuberculosis global burden. The highest incidence rates in Brazil occur in the States of Amazonas and Rio de Janeiro. The aim of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of TB in the State of Amazonas. Between 2001 and 2011, 28,198 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Amazonas, distributed among 62 municipalities, with the capital Manaus reporting the highest (68.7%) concentration of cases. Tuberculosis was more prevalent among males (59.3%) aged 15 to 34 years old (45.5%), whose race/color was predominantly pardo (64.7%) and who had pulmonary TB (84.3%). During this period, 81 cases of multidrug-resistant TB were registered, of which the highest concentration was reported from 2008 onward (p = 0.002). The municipalities with the largest numbers of indigenous individuals affected were São Gabriel da Cachoeira (93%), Itamarati (78.1%), and Santa Isabel do Rio Negro (70.1%). The future outlook for this region includes strengthening the TB control at the primary care level, by expanding diagnostic capabilities, access to treatment, research projects developed in collaboration with the Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation .;Fundação de Medicina Tropical Dr. Heitor Vieira Dourado (FMT-HVD).; and financing institutions, such as the project for the expansion of the Clinical Research Center and the creation of a hospital ward for individuals with transmissible respiratory diseases, including TB.