Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

Analysis of magnetoencephaoographic data as a nonlinear dynamical system

This thesis presents the results from an investigation into the merits of analysing Magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data in the context of dynamical systems theory. MEG is the study of both the methods for the measurement of minute magnetic flux variations at the scalp, resulting from neuro-electric activity in the neocortex, as well as the techniques required to process and extract useful information from these measurements. As a result of its unique mode of action - by directly measuring neuronal activity via the resulting magnetic field fluctuations - MEG possesses a number of useful qualities which could potentially make it a powerful addition to any brain researcher's arsenal. Unfortunately, MEG research has so far failed to fulfil its early promise, being hindered in its progress by a variety of factors. Conventionally, the analysis of MEG has been dominated by the search for activity in certain spectral bands - the so-called alpha, delta, beta, etc that are commonly referred to in both academic and lay publications. Other efforts have centred upon generating optimal fits of "equivalent current dipoles" that best explain the observed field distribution. Many of these approaches carry the implicit assumption that the dynamics which result in the observed time series are linear. This is despite a variety of reasons which suggest that nonlinearity might be present in MEG recordings. By using methods that allow for nonlinear dynamics, the research described in this thesis avoids these restrictive linearity assumptions. A crucial concept underpinning this project is the belief that MEG recordings are mere observations of the evolution of the true underlying state, which is unobservable and is assumed to reflect some abstract brain cognitive state. Further, we maintain that it is unreasonable to expect these processes to be adequately described in the traditional way: as a linear sum of a large number of frequency generators. One of the main objectives of this thesis will be to prove that much more effective and powerful analysis of MEG can be achieved if one were to assume the presence of both linear and nonlinear characteristics from the outset. Our position is that the combined action of a relatively small number of these generators, coupled with external and dynamic noise sources, is more than sufficient to account for the complexity observed in the MEG recordings. Another problem that has plagued MEG researchers is the extremely low signal to noise ratios that are obtained. As the magnetic flux variations resulting from actual cortical processes can be extremely minute, the measuring devices used in MEG are, necessarily, extremely sensitive. The unfortunate side-effect of this is that even commonplace phenomena such as the earth's geomagnetic field can easily swamp signals of interest. This problem is commonly addressed by averaging over a large number of recordings. However, this has a number of notable drawbacks. In particular, it is difficult to synchronise high frequency activity which might be of interest, and often these signals will be cancelled out by the averaging process. Other problems that have been encountered are high costs and low portability of state-of-the- art multichannel machines. The result of this is that the use of MEG has, hitherto, been restricted to large institutions which are able to afford the high costs associated with the procurement and maintenance of these machines. In this project, we seek to address these issues by working almost exclusively with single channel, unaveraged MEG data. We demonstrate the applicability of a variety of methods originating from the fields of signal processing, dynamical systems, information theory and neural networks, to the analysis of MEG data. It is noteworthy that while modern signal processing tools such as independent component analysis, topographic maps and latent variable modelling have enjoyed extensive success in a variety of research areas from financial time series modelling to the analysis of sun spot activity, their use in MEG analysis has thus far been extremely limited. It is hoped that this work will help to remedy this oversight.

Development of a conceptual model of the soil-moisture-plant sub-system of the hydrological cycle

The soil-plant-moisture subsystem is an important component of the hydrological cycle. Over the last 20 or so years a number of computer models of varying complexity have represented this subsystem with differing degrees of success. The aim of this present work has been to improve and extend an existing model. The new model is less site specific thus allowing for the simulation of a wide range of soil types and profiles. Several processes, not included in the original model, are simulated by the inclusion of new algorithms, including: macropore flow; hysteresis and plant growth. Changes have also been made to the infiltration, water uptake and water flow algorithms. Using field data from various sources, regression equations have been derived which relate parameters in the suction-conductivity-moisture content relationships to easily measured soil properties such as particle-size distribution data. Independent tests have been performed on laboratory data produced by Hedges (1989). The parameters found by regression for the suction relationships were then used in equations describing the infiltration and macropore processes. An extensive literature review produced a new model for calculating plant growth from actual transpiration, which was itself partly determined by the root densities and leaf area indices derived by the plant growth model. The new infiltration model uses intensity/duration curves to disaggregate daily rainfall inputs into hourly amounts. The final model has been calibrated and tested against field data, and its performance compared to that of the original model. Simulations have also been carried out to investigate the effects of various parameters on infiltration, macropore flow, actual transpiration and plant growth. Qualitatively comparisons have been made between these results and data given in the literature.

The development of the visual system in pre-term infants as assessed by electrophysiological techniques

In an endeavour to provide further insight into the maturation of the human visual system, the contiguous development of the pattern reversal VEP, flash VEP and flash ERG was studied in a group of neurologically normal pre-term infants, born between 28 and 35 weeks gestation. Maturational changes were observed in all the evoked electrophysiological responses recorded, these were mainly characterised by an increase in the complexity of the waveform and a shortening in the latency of the response. Initially the ERG was seen to consist of a broad b-wave only, with the a-wave emerging at an average age of 40 weeks PMA. The a-wave showed only a slight reduction in latency and a modest increase in amplitude as the infant grows older, whereas the changes seen in the ERG b-wave were much more dramatic. Pattern reversal VEPs were successfully recorded for the first time during the pre-term period. Flash VEPs were also recorded for comparison. The neonatal pattern reversal VEP consistently showed a major positive component (P1) of long latency. As the infant grew older, the latency of the P1 component decreased and was found to be negatively correlated with PMA at recording. The appearance of the N1 and N2 components became more frequent as the infant matured. The majority of infants were found to be myopic at birth and refractive error was correlated with PMA, with emmetropisation occurring at about 45 weeks PMA. The pattern reversal VEP in response to 2o checks was apparently unaffected by refractive error.

A need to consider human factors during manufacturing system design

Manufacturing systems that are heavily dependent upon direct workers have an inherent complexity that the system designer is often ill-equipped to understand. This complexity is due to the interactions that cause variations in performance of the workers. Variation in human performance can be explained by many factors, however one important factor that is not currently considered in any detail during the design stage is the physical working environment. This paper presents the findings of ongoing research investigating human performance within manufacturing systems. It sets out to identify the form of the relationships that exist between changes in physical working environmental variables and operator performance. These relationships can provide managers with a decision basis when designing and managing manufacturing systems and their environments.

Modular system design and control for flexible assembly

Flexible Assembly Systems (FASs) are normally associated with the automatic, or robotic, assembly of products, supported by automated material handling systems. However, manual assembly operations are still prevalent within many industries, where the complexity and variety of products prohibit the development of suitable automated assembly equipment. This article presents a generic model for incorporating flexibility into the design and control of assembly operations concerned with high variety/low volume manufacture, drawing on the principles for Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS) and Just-in-Time (JIT) delivery. It is based on work being undertaken in an electronics company where the assembly operations have been overhauled and restructured in response to a need for greater flexibility, shorter cycle times and reduced inventory levels. The principles employed are in themselves not original. However, the way they have been combined and tailored has created a total manufacturing control system which represents a new concept for responding to demands placed on market driven firms operating in an uncertain environment.

Complexity and chirality indices for molecular informatics::differential geometry approach

Novel molecular complexity measures are designed based on the quantum molecular kinematics. The Hamiltonian matrix constructed in a quasi-topological approximation describes the temporal evolution of the modelled electronic system and determined the time derivatives for the dynamic quantities. This allows to define the average quantum kinematic characteristics closely related to the curvatures of the electron paths, particularly, the torsion reflecting the chirality of the dynamic system. A special attention has been given to the computational scheme for this chirality measure. The calculations on realistic molecular systems demonstrate reasonable behaviour of the proposed molecular complexity indices.

Knowledge-based system for casting process selection

Design of casting entails the knowledge of various interacting factors that are unique to casting process, and, quite often, product designers do not have the required foundry-specific knowledge. Casting designers normally have to liaise with casting experts in order to ensure the product designed is castable and the optimum casting method is selected. This two-way communication results in long design lead times, and lack of it can easily lead to incorrect casting design. A computer-based system at the discretion of a design engineer can, however, alleviate this problem and enhance the prospect of casting design for manufacture. This paper proposes a knowledge-based expert system approach to assist casting product designers in selecting the most suitable casting process for specified casting design requirements, during the design phase of product manufacture. A prototype expert system has been developed, based on production rules knowledge representation technique. The proposed system consists of a number of autonomous but interconnected levels, each dealing with a specific group of factors, namely, casting alloy, shape and complexity parameters, accuracy requirements and comparative costs, based on production quantity. The user interface has been so designed to allow the user to have a clear view of how casting design parameters affect the selection of various casting processes at each level; if necessary, the appropriate design changes can be made to facilitate the castability of the product being designed, or to suit the design to a preferred casting method.

Quantifying the complexity of chaos in multibasin multidimensional dynamics of molecular systems

The simulated classical dynamics of a small molecule exhibiting self-organizing behavior via a fast transition between two states is analyzed by calculation of the statistical complexity of the system. It is shown that the complexity of molecular descriptors such as atom coordinates and dihedral angles have different values before and after the transition. This provides a new tool to identify metastable states during molecular self-organization. The highly concerted collective motion of the molecule is revealed. Low-dimensional subspaces dynamics is found sensitive to the processes in the whole, high-dimensional phase space of the system. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dynamic complexity of chaotic transitions in high-dimensional classical dynamics:Leu-Enkephalin folding

Leu-Enkephalin in explicit water is simulated using classical molecular dynamics. A ß-turn transition is investigated by calculating the topological complexity (in the "computational mechanics" framework [J. P. Crutchfield and K. Young, Phys. Rev. Lett., 63, 105 (1989)]) of the dynamics of both the peptide and the neighbouring water molecules. The complexity of the atomic trajectories of the (relatively short) simulations used in this study reflect the degree of phase space mixing in the system. It is demonstrated that the dynamic complexity of the hydrogen atoms of the peptide and almost all of the hydrogens of the neighbouring waters exhibit a minimum precisely at the moment of the ß-turn transition. This indicates the appearance of simplified periodic patterns in the atomic motion, which could correspond to high-dimensional tori in the phase space. It is hypothesized that this behaviour is the manifestation of the effect described in the approach to molecular transitions by Komatsuzaki and Berry [T. Komatsuzaki and R.S. Berry, Adv. Chem. Phys., 123, 79 (2002)], where a "quasi-regular" dynamics at the transition is suggested. Therefore, for the first time, the less chaotic character of the folding transition in a realistic molecular system is demonstrated. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.

Combining an enterprise resource planning system and informality:a study of efficiency and flexibility complmentarity [sic]

DUE TO COPYRIGHT RESTRICTIONS ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT One of the current research trends in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) involves examining the critical factors for its successful implementation. However, such research is limited to system implementation, not focusing on the flexibility of ERP to respond to changes in business. Therefore, this study explores a combination system, made up of an ERP and informality, intended to provide organisations with efficient and flexible performance simultaneously. In addition, this research analyses the benefits and challenges of using the system. The research was based on socio-technical system (STS) theory which contains two dimensions: 1) a technical dimension which evaluates the performance of the system; and 2) a social dimension which examines the impact of the system on an organisation. A mixed method approach has been followed in this research. The qualitative part aims to understand the constraints of using a single ERP system, and to define a new system corresponding to these problems. To achieve this goal, four Chinese companies operating in different industries were studied, all of which faced challenges in using an ERP system due to complexity and uncertainty in their business environments. The quantitative part contains a discrete-event simulation study that is intended to examine the impact of operational performance when a company implements the hybrid system in a real-life situation. Moreover, this research conducts a further qualitative case study, the better to understand the influence of the system in an organisation. The empirical aspect of the study reveals that an ERP with pre-determined business activities cannot react promptly to unanticipated changes in a business. Incorporating informality into an ERP can react to different situations by using different procedures that are based on the practical knowledge of frontline employees. Furthermore, the simulation study shows that the combination system can achieve a balance between efficiency and flexibility. Unlike existing research, which emphasises a continuous improvement in the IT functions of an enterprise system, this research contributes to providing a definition of a new system in theory, which has mixed performance and contains both the formal practices embedded in an ERP and informal activities based on human knowledge. It supports both cost-efficiency in executing business transactions and flexibility in coping with business uncertainty.This research also indicates risks of using the system, such as using an ERP with limited functions; a high cost for performing informally; and a low system acceptance, owing to a shift in organisational culture. With respect to practical contribution, this research suggests that companies can choose the most suitable enterprise system approach in accordance with their operational strategies. The combination system can be implemented in a company that needs to operate a medium amount of volume and variety. By contrast, the traditional ERP system is better suited in a company that operates a high-level volume market, while an informal system is more suitable for a firm with a requirement for a high level of variety.

Complexity of classical dynamics of molecular systems. I. Methodology

Methods for the calculation of complexity have been investigated as a possible alternative for the analysis of the dynamics of molecular systems. “Computational mechanics” is the approach chosen to describe emergent behavior in molecular systems that evolve in time. A novel algorithm has been developed for symbolization of a continuous physical trajectory of a dynamic system. A method for calculating statistical complexity has been implemented and tested on representative systems. It is shown that the computational mechanics approach is suitable for analyzing the dynamic complexity of molecular systems and offers new insight into the process.

Workflow Modelling in Grid System for Satellite Data Processing

This paper focuses on a problem of Grid system decomposition by developing its object model. Unified Modelling Language (UML) is used as a formalization tool. This approach is motivated by the complexity of the system being analysed and the need for simulation model design.

Using SPICE for power system simulations

Power system simulation software is a useful tool for teaching the fundamentals of power system design and operation. However, existing commercial packages are not ideal for teaching work-based students because of high-cost, complexity of the software and licensing restrictions. This paper describes a set of power systems libraries that have been developed for use with the free, student-edition of a Micro-Cap Spice that overcomes these problems. In addition, these libraries are easily adapted to include power electronic converter based components into the simulation, such as HVDC, FACTS and smart-grid devices, as well as advanced system control functions. These types of technology are set to become more widespread throughout existing power networks, and their inclusion into a power engineering degree course is therefore becoming increasingly important.

Application of the Heterogeneous System Prediction Method to Pattern Recognition Problem

* This work was financially supported by RFBR-04-01-00858.