Comment on the existence of a long range correlation in the geomagnetic disturbance storm time (Dst) index

Very recently (Banerjee et al. in Astrophys. Space, doi:1007/s10509-011-0836-1, 2011) the statistics of geomagnetic Disturbance storm (Dst) index have been addressed, and the conclusion from this analysis suggests that the underlying dynamical process can be modeled as a fractional Brownian motion with persistent long-range correlations. In this comment we expose several misconceptions and flaws in the statistical analysis of that work. On the basis of these arguments, the former conclusion should be revisited.

Riding out of the storm: How to deal with the complexity of grid and cloud management

Over the last decade, Grid computing paved the way for a new level of large scale distributed systems. This infrastructure made it possible to securely and reliably take advantage of widely separated computational resources that are part of several different organizations. Resources can be incorporated to the Grid, building a theoretical virtual supercomputer. In time, cloud computing emerged as a new type of large scale distributed system, inheriting and expanding the expertise and knowledge that have been obtained so far. Some of the main characteristics of Grids naturally evolved into clouds, others were modified and adapted and others were simply discarded or postponed. Regardless of these technical specifics, both Grids and clouds together can be considered as one of the most important advances in large scale distributed computing of the past ten years; however, this step in distributed computing has came along with a completely new level of complexity. Grid and cloud management mechanisms play a key role, and correct analysis and understanding of the system behavior are needed. Large scale distributed systems must be able to self-manage, incorporating autonomic features capable of controlling and optimizing all resources and services. Traditional distributed computing management mechanisms analyze each resource separately and adjust specific parameters of each one of them. When trying to adapt the same procedures to Grid and cloud computing, the vast complexity of these systems can make this task extremely complicated. But large scale distributed systems complexity could only be a matter of perspective. It could be possible to understand the Grid or cloud behavior as a single entity, instead of a set of resources. This abstraction could provide a different understanding of the system, describing large scale behavior and global events that probably would not be detected analyzing each resource separately. In this work we define a theoretical framework that combines both ideas, multiple resources and single entity, to develop large scale distributed systems management techniques aimed at system performance optimization, increased dependability and Quality of Service (QoS). The resulting synergy could be the key 350 J. Montes et al. to address the most important difficulties of Grid and cloud management.

Analytical Calculation of Stall-inception and Surge Points for an Axial-flow Compresor Rotor

Recently, a theoretical criterion to calculate the stability of an axial-flow compressor rotor has been presented in the scientific literature. This theoretical criterion was used for determining the locus of the stability line over the rotor map and for predicting the post-stall evolution of the constant-speed line of a rotor. The main objective of this paper is to improve the predictions of such a model. To do that, the paper proposes a different characterization of the characteristic azimuthal length and a calculation of the ratio of specific heats based on a polytropic exponent. Thanks to these new values, the model predicts two bifurcation points in the behaviour of the flow: the inception point of the instability and the surge point. Experimental data from a pure axial compressor are used to validate the model showing that the prediction of the flow coefficient at the surge point has an error inferior to 5%. For the rotor studied, the paper provides a quantitative and qualitative description of the inception of the instability and of the mechanism involved in the instable region of the compressor map. The paper also discusses the role of rotor efficiency in the position of the bifurcations and gives a sensitivity analysis of its position. Finally, it presents a discussion about how the model can explain the different behaviours exhibited by the same rotor when the flow coefficient is reduced

Storm evolution characterization for analysing stone armour damage progression

Storm evolution is fundamental for analysing the damage progression of the different failure modes and establishing suitable protocols for maintaining and optimally sizing structures. However, this aspect has hardly been studied and practically the whole of the studies dealing with the subject adopt the Equivalent triangle storm. As against this approach, two new ones are proposed. The first is the Equivalent Triangle Magnitude Storm model (ETMS), whose base, the triangular storm duration, D, is established such that its magnitude (area describing the storm history above the reference threshold level which sets the storm condition),HT, equals the real storm magnitude. The other is the Equivalent Triangle Number of Waves Storm (ETNWS), where the base is referred in terms of the real storm's number of waves,Nz. Three approaches are used for estimating the mean period, Tm, associated to each of the sea states defining the storm evolution, which is necessary to determine the full energy flux withstood by the structure in the course of the extreme event. Two are based on the Jonswap spectrum representativity and the other uses the bivariate Gumbel copula (Hs, Tm), resulting from adjusting the storm peaks. The representativity of the approaches proposed and those defined in specialised literature are analysed by comparing the main armour layer's progressive loss of hydraulic stability caused by real storms and that relating to theoretical ones. An empirical maximum energy flux model is used for this purpose. The agreement between the empirical and theoretical results demonstrates that the representativity of the different approaches depends on the storm characteristics and point towards a need to investigate other geometrical shapes to characterise the storm evolution associated with sea states heavily influenced by swell wave components.

Storm characterization for analyzing stone armour damage progression

Storm evolution is fundamental for analysing the damage progression of the different failure modes and establishing suitable protocols for maintaining and optimally sizing structures. However, this aspect has hardly been studied and practically the whole of the studies dealing with the subject adopt the Equivalent triangle storm. As against this approach, two new ones are proposed. The first is the Equivalent Triangle Magnitude Storm model (ETMS), whose base, the triangular storm duration, D, is established such that its magnitude (area describing the storm history above the reference threshold level which sets the storm condition),HT, equals the real storm magnitude. The other is the Equivalent Triangle Number of Waves Storm (ETNWS), where the base is referred in terms of the real storm's number of waves,Nz. Three approaches are used for estimating the mean period, Tm, associated to each of the sea states defining the storm evolution, which is necessary to determine the full energy flux withstood by the structure in the course of the extreme event. Two are based on the Jonswap spectrum representativity and the other uses the bivariate Gumbel copula (Hs, Tm), resulting from adjusting the storm peaks. The representativity of the approaches proposed and those defined in specialised literature are analysed by comparing the main armour layer's progressive loss of hydraulic stability caused by real storms and that relating to theoretical ones. An empirical maximum energy flux model is used for this purpose. The agreement between the empirical and theoretical results demonstrates that the representativity of the different approaches depends on the storm characteristics and point towards a need to investigate other geometrical shapes to characterise the storm evolution associated with sea states heavily influenced by swell wave components.

Stability Analysis of a Run-of-River Diversion Hydropower Plant With Surge Tank And Spillway in the Head Pond

Run-of-river hydropower plants usually lack significant storage capacity; therefore, the more adequate control strategy would consist of keeping a constant water level at the intake pond in order to harness the maximum amount of energy from the river flow or to reduce the surface flooded in the head pond. In this paper, a standard PI control system of a run-of-river diversion hydropower plant with surge tank and a spillway in the head pond that evacuates part of the river flow plant is studied. A stability analysis based on the Routh-Hurwitz criterion is carried out and a practical criterion for tuning the gains of the PI controller is proposed. Conclusions about the head pond and surge tank areas are drawn from the stability analysis. Finally, this criterion is applied to a real hydropower plant in design state; the importance of considering the spillway dimensions and turbine characteristic curves for adequate tuning of the controller gains is highlighted

Selected topics in the Hydrodynamics of floating offshore wind turbines: heave damping and second order surge motions

La Energía eléctrica producida mediante tecnología eólica flotante es uno de los recursos más prometedores para reducir la dependencia de energía proveniente de combustibles fósiles. Esta tecnología es de especial interés en países como España, donde la plataforma continental es estrecha y existen pocas áreas para el desarrollo de estructuras fijas. Entre los diferentes conceptos flotantes, esta tesis se ha ocupado de la tipología semisumergible. Estas plataformas pueden experimentar movimientos resonantes en largada y arfada. En largada, dado que el periodo de resonancia es largo estos puede ser inducidos por efectos de segundo orden de deriva lenta que pueden tener una influencia muy significativa en las cargas en los fondeos. En arfada las fuerzas de primer orden pueden inducir grandes movimientos y por tanto la correcta determinación del amortiguamiento es esencial para la analizar la operatividad de la plataforma. Esta tesis ha investigado estos dos efectos, para ello se ha usado como caso base el diseño de una plataforma desarrollada en el proyecto Europeo Hiprwind. La plataforma se compone de 3 columnas cilíndricas unidas mediante montantes estructurales horizontales y diagonales, Los cilindros proporcionan flotabilidad y momentos adrizante. A la base de cada columna se le ha añadido un gran “Heave Plate” o placa de cierre. El diseño es similar a otros diseños previos (Windfloat). Se ha fabricado un modelo a escala de una de las columnas para el estudio detallado del amortiguamiento mediante oscilaciones forzadas. Las dimensiones del modelo (1m diámetro en la placa de cierre) lo hacen, de los conocidos por el candidato, el mayor para el que se han publicado datos. El diseño del cilindro se ha realizado de tal manera que permite la fijación de placas de cierre planas o con refuerzo, ambos modelos se han fabricado y analizado. El modelo con refuerzos es una reproducción exacta del diseño a escala real incluyendo detalles distintivos del mismo, siendo el más importante la placa vertical perimetral. Los ensayos de oscilaciones forzadas se han realizado para un rango de frecuencias, tanto para el disco plano como el reforzado. Se han medido las fuerzas durante los ensayos y se han calculado los coeficientes de amortiguamiento y de masa añadida. Estos coeficientes son necesarios para el cálculo del fondeo mediante simulaciones en el dominio del tiempo. Los coeficientes calculados se han comparado con la literatura existente, con cálculos potenciales y por ultimo con cálculos CFD. Para disponer de información relevante para el diseño estructural de la plataforma se han medido y analizado experimentalmente las presiones en la parte superior e inferior de cada placa de cierre. Para la correcta estimación numérica de las fuerzas de deriva lenta en la plataforma se ha realizado una campaña experimental que incluye ensayos con modelo cautivo de la plataforma completa en olas bicromaticas. Pese a que estos experimentos no reproducen un escenario de oleaje realista, los mismos permiten una verificación del modelo numérico mediante la comparación de fuerzas medidas en el modelo físico y el numérico. Como resultados de esta tesis podemos enumerar las siguientes conclusiones. 1. El amortiguamiento y la masa añadida muestran una pequeña dependencia con la frecuencia pero una gran dependencia con la amplitud del movimiento. siendo coherente con investigaciones existentes. 2. Las medidas con la placa de cierre reforzada con cierre vertical en el borde, muestra un amortiguamiento significativamente menor comparada con la placa plana. Esto implica que para ensayos de canal es necesario incluir estos detalles en el modelo. 3. La masa añadida no muestra grandes variaciones comparando placa plana y placa con refuerzos. 4. Un coeficiente de amortiguamiento del 6% del crítico se puede considerar conservador para el cálculo en el dominio de la frecuencia. Este amortiguamiento es equivalente a un coeficiente de “drag” de 4 en elementos de Morison cuadráticos en las placas de cierre usadas en simulaciones en el dominio del tiempo. 5. Se han encontrado discrepancias en algunos valores de masa añadida y amortiguamiento de la placa plana al comparar con datos publicados. Se han propuesto algunas explicaciones basadas en las diferencias en la relación de espesores, en la distancia a la superficie libre y también relacionadas con efectos de escala. 6. La presión en la placa con refuerzos son similares a las de la placa plana, excepto en la zona del borde donde la placa con refuerzo vertical induce una gran diferencias de presiones entre la cara superior e inferior. 7. La máxima diferencia de presión escala coherentemente con la fuerza equivalente a la aceleración de la masa añadida distribuida sobre la placa. 8. Las masas añadidas calculadas con el código potencial (WADAM) no son suficientemente precisas, Este software no contempla el modelado de placas de pequeño espesor con dipolos, la poca precisión de los resultados aumenta la importancia de este tipo de elementos al realizar simulaciones con códigos potenciales para este tipo de plataformas que incluyen elementos de poco espesor. 9. Respecto al código CFD (Ansys CFX) la precisión de los cálculos es razonable para la placa plana, esta precisión disminuye para la placa con refuerzo vertical en el borde, como era de esperar dado la mayor complejidad del flujo. 10. Respecto al segundo orden, los resultados, en general, muestran que, aunque la tendencia en las fuerzas de segundo orden se captura bien con los códigos numéricos, se observan algunas reducciones en comparación con los datos experimentales. Las diferencias entre simulaciones y datos experimentales son mayores al usar la aproximación de Newman, que usa únicamente resultados de primer orden para el cálculo de las fuerzas de deriva media. 11. Es importante remarcar que las tendencias observadas en los resultados con modelo fijo cambiarn cuando el modelo este libre, el impacto que los errores en las estimaciones de fuerzas segundo orden tienen en el sistema de fondeo dependen de las condiciones ambientales que imponen las cargas ultimas en dichas líneas. En cualquier caso los resultados que se han obtenido en esta investigación confirman que es necesaria y deseable una detallada investigación de los métodos usados en la estimación de las fuerzas no lineales en las turbinas flotantes para que pueda servir de guía en futuros diseños de estos sistemas. Finalmente, el candidato espera que esta investigación pueda beneficiar a la industria eólica offshore en mejorar el diseño hidrodinámico del concepto semisumergible. ABSTRACT Electrical power obtained from floating offshore wind turbines is one of the promising resources which can reduce the fossil fuel energy consumption and cover worldwide energy demands. The concept is the most competitive in countries, such as Spain, where the continental shelf is narrow and does not provide space for fixed structures. Among the different floating structures concepts, this thesis has dealt with the semisubmersible one. Platforms of this kind may experience resonant motions both in surge and heave directions. In surge, since the platform natural period is long, such resonance can be excited with second order slow drift forces and may have substantial influence on mooring loads. In heave, first order forces can induce significant motion, whose damping is a crucial factor for the platform downtime. These two topics have been investigated in this thesis. To this aim, a design developed during HiPRWind EU project, has been selected as reference case study. The platform is composed of three cylindrical legs, linked together by a set of structural braces. The cylinders provide buoyancy and restoring forces and moments. Large circular heave plates have been attached to their bases. The design is similar to other documented in literature (e.g. Windfloat), which implies outcomes could have a general value. A large scale model of one of the legs has been built in order to study heave damping through forced oscillations. The final dimensions of the specimen (one meter diameter discs) make it, to the candidate’s knowledge, the largest for which data has been published. The model design allows for the fitting of either a plain solid heave plate or a flapped reinforced one; both have been built. The latter is a model scale reproduction of the prototype heave plate and includes some distinctive features, the most important being the inclusion of a vertical flap on its perimeter. The forced oscillation tests have been conducted for a range of frequencies and amplitudes, with both the solid plain model and the vertical flap one. Forces have been measured, from which added mass and damping coefficients have been obtained. These are necessary to accurately compute time-domain simulations of mooring design. The coefficients have been compared with literature, and potential flow and CFD predictions. In order to provide information for the structural design of the platform, pressure measurements on the top and bottom side of the heave discs have been recorded and pressure differences analyzed. In addition, in order to conduct a detailed investigation on the numerical estimations of the slow-drift forces of the HiPRWind platform, an experimental campaign involving captive (fixed) model tests of a model of the whole platform in bichromatic waves has been carried out. Although not reproducing the more realistic scenario, these tests allowed a preliminary verification of the numerical model based directly on the forces measured on the structure. The following outcomes can be enumerated: 1. Damping and added mass coefficients show, on one hand, a small dependence with frequency and, on the other hand, a large dependence with the motion amplitude, which is coherent with previously published research. 2. Measurements with the prototype plate, equipped with the vertical flap, show that damping drops significantly when comparing this to the plain one. This implies that, for tank tests of the whole floater and turbine, the prototype plate, equipped with the flap, should be incorporated to the model. 3. Added mass values do not suffer large alterations when comparing the plain plate and the one equipped with a vertical flap. 4. A conservative damping coefficient equal to 6% of the critical damping can be considered adequate for the prototype heave plate for frequency domain analysis. A corresponding drag coefficient equal to 4.0 can be used in time domain simulations to define Morison elements. 5. When comparing to published data, some discrepancies in added mass and damping coefficients for the solid plain plate have been found. Explanations have been suggested, focusing mainly on differences in thickness ratio and distance to the free surface, and eventual scale effects. 6. Pressures on the plate equipped with the vertical flap are similar in magnitude to those of the plain plate, even though substantial differences are present close to the edge, where the flap induces a larger pressure difference in the reinforced case. 7. The maximum pressure difference scales coherently with the force equivalent to the acceleration of the added mass, distributed over the disc surface. 8. Added mass coefficient values predicted with the potential solver (WADAM) are not accurate enough. The used solver does not contemplate modeling thin plates with doublets. The relatively low accuracy of the results highlights the importance of these elements when performing potential flow simulations of offshore platforms which include thin plates. 9. For the full CFD solver (Ansys CFX), the accuracy of the computations is found reasonable for the plain plate. Such accuracy diminishes for the disc equipped with a vertical flap, an expected result considering the greater complexity of the flow. 10. In regards to second order effects, in general, the results showed that, although the main trend in the behavior of the second-order forces is well captured by the numerical predictions, some under prediction of the experimental values is visible. The gap between experimental and numerical results is more pronounced when Newman’s approximation is considered, making use exclusively of the mean drift forces calculated in the first-order solution. 11. It should be observed that the trends observed in the fixed model test may change when the body is free to float, and the impact that eventual errors in the estimation of the second-order forces may have on the mooring system depends on the characteristics of the sea conditions that will ultimately impose the maximum loads on the mooring lines. Nevertheless, the preliminary results obtained in this research do confirm that a more detailed investigation of the methods adopted for the estimation of the nonlinear wave forces on the FOWT would be welcome and may provide some further guidance for the design of such systems. As a final remark, the candidate hopes this research can benefit the offshore wind industry in improving the hydrodynamic design of the semi-submersible concept.

Improvement of theoretical storm characterization for different climate conditions

The different theoretical models related with storm wave characterization focus on determining the significant wave height of the peak storm, the mean period and, usually assuming a triangle storm shape, their duration. In some cases, the main direction is also considered. Nevertheless, definition of the whole storm history, including the variation of the main random variables during the storm cycle is not taken into consideration. The representativeness of the proposed storm models, analysed in a recent study using an empirical maximum energy flux time dependent function shows that the behaviour of the different storm models is extremely dependent on the climatic characteristics of the project area. Moreover, there are no theoretical models able to adequately reproduce storm history evolution of the sea states characterized by important swell components. To overcome this shortcoming, several theoretical storm shapes are investigated taking into consideration the bases of the three best theoretical storm models, the Equivalent Magnitude Storm (EMS), the Equivalent Number of Waves Storm (ENWS) and the Equivalent Duration Storm (EDS) models. To analyse the representativeness of the new storm shape, the aforementioned maximum energy flux formulation and a wave overtopping discharge structure function are used. With the empirical energy flux formulation, correctness of the different approaches is focussed on the progressive hydraulic stability loss of the main armour layer caused by real and theoretical storms. For the overtopping structure equation, the total volume of discharge is considered. In all cases, the results obtained highlight the greater representativeness of the triangular EMS model for sea waves and the trapezoidal (nonparallel sides) EMS model for waves with a higher degree of wave development. Taking into account the increase in offshore and shallow water wind turbines, maritime transport and deep vertical breakwaters, the maximum wave height of the whole storm history and that corresponding to each sea state belonging to its cycle's evolution is also considered. The procedure considers the information usually available for extreme waves' characterization. Extrapolations of the maximum wave height of the selected storms have also been considered. The 4th order statistics of the sea state belonging to the real and theoretical storm have been estimated to complete the statistical analysis of individual wave height