Analysis and simulation of computer controlled cellular mobile radio systems

Cellular mobile radio systems will be of increasing importance in the future. This thesis describes research work concerned with the teletraffic capacity and the canputer control requirements of such systems. The work involves theoretical analysis and experimental investigations using digital computer simulation. New formulas are derived for the congestion in single-cell systems in which there are both land-to-mobile and mobile-to-mobile calls and in which mobile-to-mobile calls go via the base station. Two approaches are used, the first yields modified forms of the familiar Erlang and Engset formulas, while the second gives more complicated but more accurate formulas. The results of computer simulations to establish the accuracy of the formulas are described. New teletraffic formulas are also derived for the congestion in multi -cell systems. Fixed, dynamic and hybrid channel assignments are considered. The formulas agree with previously published simulation results. Simulation programs are described for the evaluation of the speech traffic of mobiles and for the investigation of a possible computer network for the control of the speech traffic. The programs were developed according to the structured progranming approach leading to programs of modular construction. Two simulation methods are used for the speech traffic: the roulette method and the time-true method. The first is economical but has some restriction, while the second is expensive but gives comprehensive answers. The proposed control network operates at three hierarchical levels performing various control functions which include: the setting-up and clearing-down of calls, the hand-over of calls between cells and the address-changing of mobiles travelling between cities. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the control netwvork and indicate that small mini -computers inter-connected via voice grade data channels would be capable of providing satisfactory control

The design of a support department simulator for use in the design of manufacturing systems

Manufacturing firms are driven by competitive pressures to continually improve the effectiveness and efficiency of their organisations. For this reason, manufacturing engineers often implement changes to existing processes, or design new production facilities, with the expectation of making further gains in manufacturing system performance. This thesis relates to how the likely outcome of this type of decision should be predicted prior to its implementation. The thesis argues that since manufacturing systems must also interact with many other parts of an organisation, the expected performance improvements can often be significantly hampered by constraints that arise elsewhere in the business. As a result, decision-makers should attempt to predict just how well a proposed design will perform when these other factors, or 'support departments', are taken into consideration. However, the thesis also demonstrates that, in practice, where quantitative analysis is used to evaluate design decisions, the analysis model invariably ignores the potential impact of support functions on a system's overall performance. A more comprehensive modelling approach is therefore required. A study of how various business functions interact establishes that to properly represent the kind of delays that give rise to support department constraints, a model should actually portray the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of entities in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing aspects of a business. This implies that computer simulation be used to model design decisions but current simulation software does not provide a sufficient range of functionality to enable the behaviour of all of these entities to be represented in this way. The main objective of the research has therefore been the development of a new simulator that will overcome limitations of existing software and so enable decision-makers to conduct a more holistic evaluation of design decisions. It is argued that the application of object-oriented techniques offers a potentially better way of fulfilling both the functional and ease-of-use issues relating to development of the new simulator. An object-oriented analysis and design of the system, called WBS/Office, are therefore presented that extends to modelling a firm's administrative and other support activities in the context of the manufacturing system design process. A particularly novel feature of the design is the ability for decision-makers to model how a firm's specific information and document processing requirements might hamper shop-floor performance. The simulator is primarily intended for modelling make-to-order batch manufacturing systems and the thesis presents example models created using a working version of WBS/Office that demonstrate the feasibility of using the system to analyse manufacturing system designs in this way.

Micromechanics of agglomerate damage processes

This thesis reports a detailed investigation of the micromechanics of agglomerate behaviour under free-fall impact, double (punch) impact and diametrical compression tests using the simulation software TRUBAL. The software is based on the discrete element method (DEM) which incorporates the Newtonian equations of motion and contact mechanics theory to model the interparticle interactions. Four agglomerates have been used: three dense (differing in interface energy and contact density) and one loose. Although the simulated agglomerates are relatively coarse-grained, the results obtained are in good agreement with laboratory test results reported in the literature. The computer simulation results show that, in all three types of test, the loose agglomerate cannot fracture as it is unable to store sufficient elastic energy. Instead, it becomes flattened for low loading-rates and shattered or crushed at higher loading-rates. In impact tests, the dense agglomerates experience only local damage at low impact velocities. Semi-brittle fracture and fragmentation are produced over a range of higher impact velocities and at very high impact velocities shattering occurs. The dense agglomerates fracture in two or three large fragments in the diametrical compression tests. Local damage at the agglomerate-platen interface always occurs prior to fracture and consists of local bond breakage (microcrack formation) and local dislocations (compaction). The fracture process is dynamic and much more complex than that suggested by continuum fracture mechanics theory. Cracks are always initiated from the contact zones and propagate towards the agglomerate centre. Fracture occurs a short time after the start of unloading when a fracture crack "selection" process takes place. The detailed investigation of the agglomerate damage processes includes an examination of the evolution of the fracture surface. Detailed comparisons of the behaviour of the same agglomerate in all three types of test are presented. The particle size distribution curves of the debris are also examined, for both free-fall and double impact tests.

A New Class of Processes for Formalizing and Generalizing Individual-Based Models: The Semi-Semi-Markov Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K15, 60K20, 60G20,60J75, 60J80, 60J85, 60-08, 90B15.

Multilevel processes and cultural adaptation: examples from past and present small-scale societies

The last two decades have seen a proliferation of research frameworks that emphasise the importance of understanding adaptive processes that happen at different levels. We contribute to this growing body of literature by exploring how cultural (mal)adaptive dynamics relate to multilevel social-ecological processes occurring at different scales, where the lower levels combine into new units with new organizations, functions, and emergent properties or collective behaviors. After a brief review of the concept of “cultural adaptation” from the perspective of cultural evolutionary theory, the core of the paper is constructed around the exploration of multilevel processes occurring at the temporal, spatial, social, and political scales. We do so by using insights from cultural evolutionary theory and by examining small-scale societies as case studies. In each section, we discuss the importance of the selected scale for understanding cultural adaptation and then present an example that illustrates how multilevel processes in the selected scale help explain observed patterns in the cultural adaptive process. The last section of the paper discusses the potential of modeling and computer simulation for studying multilevel processes in cultural adaptation. We conclude by highlighting how elements from cultural evolutionary theory might enrich the multilevel process discussion in resilience theory.

Introduction to Multi-Agent Simulation

When designing systems that are complex, dynamic and stochastic in nature, simulation is generally recognised as one of the best design support technologies, and a valuable aid in the strategic and tactical decision making process. A simulation model consists of a set of rules that define how a system changes over time, given its current state. Unlike analytical models, a simulation model is not solved but is run and the changes of system states can be observed at any point in time. This provides an insight into system dynamics rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. Simulation is not a decision making tool but a decision support tool, allowing better informed decisions to be made. Due to the complexity of the real world, a simulation model can only be an approximation of the target system. The essence of the art of simulation modelling is abstraction and simplification. Only those characteristics that are important for the study and analysis of the target system should be included in the simulation model. The purpose of simulation is either to better understand the operation of a target system, or to make predictions about a target system’s performance. It can be viewed as an artificial white-room which allows one to gain insight but also to test new theories and practices without disrupting the daily routine of the focal organisation. What you can expect to gain from a simulation study is very well summarised by FIRMA (2000). His idea is that if the theory that has been framed about the target system holds, and if this theory has been adequately translated into a computer model this would allow you to answer some of the following questions: · Which kind of behaviour can be expected under arbitrarily given parameter combinations and initial conditions? · Which kind of behaviour will a given target system display in the future? · Which state will the target system reach in the future? The required accuracy of the simulation model very much depends on the type of question one is trying to answer. In order to be able to respond to the first question the simulation model needs to be an explanatory model. This requires less data accuracy. In comparison, the simulation model required to answer the latter two questions has to be predictive in nature and therefore needs highly accurate input data to achieve credible outputs. These predictions involve showing trends, rather than giving precise and absolute predictions of the target system performance. The numerical results of a simulation experiment on their own are most often not very useful and need to be rigorously analysed with statistical methods. These results then need to be considered in the context of the real system and interpreted in a qualitative way to make meaningful recommendations or compile best practice guidelines. One needs a good working knowledge about the behaviour of the real system to be able to fully exploit the understanding gained from simulation experiments. The goal of this chapter is to brace the newcomer to the topic of what we think is a valuable asset to the toolset of analysts and decision makers. We will give you a summary of information we have gathered from the literature and of the experiences that we have made first hand during the last five years, whilst obtaining a better understanding of this exciting technology. We hope that this will help you to avoid some pitfalls that we have unwittingly encountered. Section 2 is an introduction to the different types of simulation used in Operational Research and Management Science with a clear focus on agent-based simulation. In Section 3 we outline the theoretical background of multi-agent systems and their elements to prepare you for Section 4 where we discuss how to develop a multi-agent simulation model. Section 5 outlines a simple example of a multi-agent system. Section 6 provides a collection of resources for further studies and finally in Section 7 we will conclude the chapter with a short summary.

MINING AND VERIFICATION OF TEMPORAL EVENTS WITH APPLICATIONS IN COMPUTER MICRO-ARCHITECTURE RESEARCH

Computer simulation programs are essential tools for scientists and engineers to understand a particular system of interest. As expected, the complexity of the software increases with the depth of the model used. In addition to the exigent demands of software engineering, verification of simulation programs is especially challenging because the models represented are complex and ridden with unknowns that will be discovered by developers in an iterative process. To manage such complexity, advanced verification techniques for continually matching the intended model to the implemented model are necessary. Therefore, the main goal of this research work is to design a useful verification and validation framework that is able to identify model representation errors and is applicable to generic simulators. The framework that was developed and implemented consists of two parts. The first part is First-Order Logic Constraint Specification Language (FOLCSL) that enables users to specify the invariants of a model under consideration. From the first-order logic specification, the FOLCSL translator automatically synthesizes a verification program that reads the event trace generated by a simulator and signals whether all invariants are respected. The second part consists of mining the temporal flow of events using a newly developed representation called State Flow Temporal Analysis Graph (SFTAG). While the first part seeks an assurance of implementation correctness by checking that the model invariants hold, the second part derives an extended model of the implementation and hence enables a deeper understanding of what was implemented. The main application studied in this work is the validation of the timing behavior of micro-architecture simulators. The study includes SFTAGs generated for a wide set of benchmark programs and their analysis using several artificial intelligence algorithms. This work improves the computer architecture research and verification processes as shown by the case studies and experiments that have been conducted.

Hitting and returning to rare events for all alpha-mixing processes

We prove that for any a-mixing stationary process the hitting time of any n-string A(n) converges, when suitably normalized, to an exponential law. We identify the normalization constant lambda(A(n)). A similar statement holds also for the return time. To establish this result we prove two other results of independent interest. First, we show a relation between the rescaled hitting time and the rescaled return time, generalizing a theorem of Haydn, Lacroix and Vaienti. Second, we show that for positive entropy systems, the probability of observing any n-string in n consecutive observations goes to zero as n goes to infinity. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Timoshenko versus Euler beam theory: Pitfalls of a deterministic approach

The selection criteria for Euler-Bernoulli or Timoshenko beam theories are generally given by means of some deterministic rule involving beam dimensions. The Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is used to model the behavior of flexure-dominated (or ""long"") beams. The Timoshenko theory applies for shear-dominated (or ""short"") beams. In the mid-length range, both theories should be equivalent, and some agreement between them would be expected. Indeed, it is shown in the paper that, for some mid-length beams, the deterministic displacement responses for the two theories agrees very well. However, the article points out that the behavior of the two beam models is radically different in terms of uncertainty propagation. In the paper, some beam parameters are modeled as parameterized stochastic processes. The two formulations are implemented and solved via a Monte Carlo-Galerkin scheme. It is shown that, for uncertain elasticity modulus, propagation of uncertainty to the displacement response is much larger for Timoshenko beams than for Euler-Bernoulli beams. On the other hand, propagation of the uncertainty for random beam height is much larger for Euler beam displacements. Hence, any reliability or risk analysis becomes completely dependent on the beam theory employed. The authors believe this is not widely acknowledged by the structural safety or stochastic mechanics communities. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Computer-Assisted Numerical Analysis for Oxygen and Carbon Dioxide Mass Transfer in Blood Oxygenators

A two-dimensional numeric simulator is developed to predict the nonlinear, convective-reactive, oxygen mass exchange in a cross-flow hollow fiber blood oxygenator. The numeric simulator also calculates the carbon dioxide mass exchange, as hemoglobin affinity to oxygen is affected by the local pH value, which depends mostly on the local carbon dioxide content in blood. Blood pH calculation inside the oxygenator is made by the simultaneous solution of an equation that takes into account the blood buffering capacity and the classical Henderson-Hasselbach equation. The modeling of the mass transfer conductance in the blood comprises a global factor, which is a function of the Reynolds number, and a local factor, which takes into account the amount of oxygen reacted to hemoglobin. The simulator is calibrated against experimental data for an in-line fiber bundle. The results are: (i) the calibration process allows the precise determination of the mass transfer conductance for both oxygen and carbon dioxide; (ii) very alkaline pH values occur in the blood path at the gas inlet side of the fiber bundle; (iii) the parametric analysis of the effect of the blood base excess (BE) shows that V(CO2) is similar in the case of blood metabolic alkalosis, metabolic acidosis, or normal BE, for a similar blood inlet P(CO2), although the condition of metabolic alkalosis is the worst case, as the pH in the vicinity of the gas inlet is the most alkaline; (iv) the parametric analysis of the effect of the gas flow to blood flow ratio (Q(G)/Q(B)) shows that V(CO2) variation with the gas flow is almost linear up to Q(G)/Q(B) = 2.0. V(O2) is not affected by the gas flow as it was observed that by increasing the gas flow up to eight times, the V(O2) grows only 1%. The mass exchange of carbon dioxide uses the full length of the hollow-fiber only if Q(G)/Q(B) > 2.0, as it was observed that only in this condition does the local variation of pH and blood P(CO2) comprise the whole fiber bundle.

A Nonstationary Model of Newborn EEG

The detection of seizure in the newborn is a critical aspect of neurological research. Current automatic detection techniques are difficult to assess due to the problems associated with acquiring and labelling newborn electroencephalogram (EEG) data. A realistic model for newborn EEG would allow confident development, assessment and comparison of these detection techniques. This paper presents a model for newborn EEG that accounts for its self-similar and non-stationary nature. The model consists of background and seizure sub-models. The newborn EEG background model is based on the short-time power spectrum with a time-varying power law. The relationship between the fractal dimension and the power law of a power spectrum is utilized for accurate estimation of the short-time power law exponent. The newborn EEG seizure model is based on a well-known time-frequency signal model. This model addresses all significant time-frequency characteristics of newborn EEG seizure which include; multiple components or harmonics, piecewise linear instantaneous frequency laws and harmonic amplitude modulation. Estimates of the parameters of both models are shown to be random and are modelled using the data from a total of 500 background epochs and 204 seizure epochs. The newborn EEG background and seizure models are validated against real newborn EEG data using the correlation coefficient. The results show that the output of the proposed models has a higher correlation with real newborn EEG than currently accepted models (a 10% and 38% improvement for background and seizure models, respectively).

Speech recognition in noise for cochlear implant listeners: Benefits of residual hearing

The purpose of this study was to explore the potential advantages, both theoretical and applied, of preserving low-frequency acoustic hearing in cochlear implant patients. Several hypotheses are presented that predict that residual low-frequency acoustic hearing along with electric stimulation for high frequencies will provide an advantage over traditional long-electrode cochlear implants for the recognition of speech in competing backgrounds. A simulation experiment in normal-hearing subjects demonstrated a clear advantage for preserving low-frequency residual acoustic hearing for speech recognition in a background of other talkers, but not in steady noise. Three subjects with an implanted "short-electrode" cochlear implant and preserved low-frequency acoustic hearing were also tested on speech recognition in the same competing backgrounds and compared to a larger group of traditional cochlear implant users. Each of the three short-electrode subjects performed better than any of the traditional long-electrode implant subjects for speech recognition in a background of other talkers, but not in steady noise, in general agreement with the simulation studies. When compared to a subgroup of traditional implant users matched according to speech recognition ability in quiet, the short-electrode patients showed a 9-dB advantage in the multitalker background. These experiments provide strong preliminary support for retaining residual low-frequency acoustic hearing in cochlear implant patients. The results are consistent with the idea that better perception of voice pitch, which can aid in separating voices in a background of other talkers, was responsible for this advantage.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

An atomistic simulation of solid state sintering using Monte Carlo methods

This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Avaliação e optimização operacional: estudo do terminal de contentores de Alcântara

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Mecânica - Ramo Manutenção e Produção