The beta modified Weibull distribution

A five-parameter distribution so-called the beta modified Weibull distribution is defined and studied. The new distribution contains, as special submodels, several important distributions discussed in the literature, such as the generalized modified Weibull, beta Weibull, exponentiated Weibull, beta exponential, modified Weibull and Weibull distributions, among others. The new distribution can be used effectively in the analysis of survival data since it accommodates monotone, unimodal and bathtub-shaped hazard functions. We derive the moments and examine the order statistics and their moments. We propose the method of maximum likelihood for estimating the model parameters and obtain the observed information matrix. A real data set is used to illustrate the importance and flexibility of the new distribution.

The exponentiated generalized gamma distribution with application to lifetime data

A four-parameter extension of the generalized gamma distribution capable of modelling a bathtub-shaped hazard rate function is defined and studied. The beauty and importance of this distribution lies in its ability to model monotone and non-monotone failure rate functions, which are quite common in lifetime data analysis and reliability. The new distribution has a number of well-known lifetime special sub-models, such as the exponentiated Weibull, exponentiated generalized half-normal, exponentiated gamma and generalized Rayleigh, among others. We derive two infinite sum representations for its moments. We calculate the density of the order statistics and two expansions for their moments. The method of maximum likelihood is used for estimating the model parameters and the observed information matrix is obtained. Finally, a real data set from the medical area is analysed.

Classical and quantum noise in electronic systems

We review the description of noise in electronic circuits in terms of electron transport. The Poisson process is used as a unifying principle. In recent years, much attention has been given to current noise in light-emitting diodes and laser diodes. In these devices, random events associated with electron transport are correlated with photon emission times, thus modifying both the current statistics and the statistics of the emitted light. We give a review of experiments in this area with special emphasis on the ability of such devices to produce subshot-noise currents and light beams. Finally we consider the noise properties of a class of mesoscopic devices based on the quantum tunnelling of an electron into and out of a bound state. We present a simple quantum model of this process which confirms that the current noise in such a device should be subshot-noise.

Suicide in urban New South Wales, Australia 1985-1994: Socio-economic and migrant interactions

Variation of suicide with socio-economic status (SES) in urban NSW (Australia) during 1985-1994, by sex and country or region of birth, was examined using Poisson regression analysis of vital statistics and population data (age greater than or similar to 15 yr). Quintiles of SES were defined by municipality of residence and comparisons of suicide by SES were adjusted for age and country (or region) of birth (COB), and examined by COB. Risk of suicide in females was 28% that of males for all adults and 21% for youth (age 15-24 yr). Suicide risk was lower in males from southern Europe, Middle East and Asia, and higher in northern and eastern European males, compared to the Australian-born. Risks for suicide increased significantly with decreasing SES in males, but not in females. The relationship of male suicide and SES was stronger when controlled for COB. For males, the relative risk of suicide, adjusted for age and COB, was 66% higher in the lowest SES quintile compared to the highest quintile, and 39% higher for youth (age 15-24 yr). For male suicide, the population attributable fraction for SES (less than the highest quintile) was 27%. Analysis of SES differentials in male suicide according to COB indicated a significant inverse suicide gradient in relation to SES for the Australian-born and those burn in New Zealand and the United Kingdom or fire. but not in non-English speaking COB groups, except for Asia. For Australian-born males, suicide risk was 71% higher in the lowest SES group (compared to the highest), adjusted for age. These findings indicate that SES plays an important role in male suicide rates among the Australian-born and migrants from English-speaking countries and Asia, and among youth; but not in female suicide, nor suicide in most non-English speaking migrant groups. Reduction in SES differentials through economic and social policies may reduce male suicide in lower SES groups and should be seen to be at least as important as individual level interventions. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of trends in method-specific suicide rates in Australia and England & Wales, 1968-97

Objective: To compare secular trends in method-specific suicide rates among young people in Australia and England & Wales between 1968 and 1997. Methods: Australian data were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for England & Wales from the Office for National Statistics. Overall and method-specific suicide rates for 15-34 year old males and females were calculated using ICD codes E950-9 and E980-9 except E988.8. Results: In both settings, suicide rates have almost doubled in young males over the past 30 years (from 16.8 to 32.9 per 100,000 in Australia and from 10.1 to 19.0 in England & Wales). Overall rates have changed little in young females. In both sexes and in both settings there have been substantial increases in suicide by hanging (5-7 fold increase in Australia and four-fold increase in England & Wales). There have also been smaller increases in gassing in the 1980s and '90s. In females, the impact of these increases on overall rates has been offset by a decline in drug overdose, the most common method in females. Conclusions: Rates of male suicide have increased substantially in both settings in recent years, and hanging has become an increasingly common method of suicide. The similarity in observed trends in both settings supports the view that such changes may have common causes. Research should focus on understanding why hanging has increased in popularity and what measures may be taken to diminish it.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

State sector reform and agriculture in China

China's state sector reform process is examined through the key sector of agriculture. A preview of aggregate statistics and broader reform measures indicate the declining role of the state. However, a systematic analysis of administrative, service and enterprise structures reveal the nuances of how the state has retained strong capacity to guide development of the agricultural sector. State and Party policy makers aim not only to support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of farmers, but also to pursue agricultural modernization in the context of rapid industrialization. These goals are unlikely to be achieved through a wholesale transfer of functions to the private sector, so the state has maintained or developed new mechanisms of influence, particularly in the areas of service provision and enterprise development.

Renal Cell Carcinoma: T1 and T2 Signal Intensity Characteristics of Papillary and Clear Cell Types Correlated with Pathology

OBJECTIVE. The objective of our study was to describe the T1 and T2 signal intensity characteristics of papillary renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and clear cell RCC with pathologic correlation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Of 539 RCCs, 49 tumors (21 papillary RCCs and 28 clear cell RCCs) in 45 patients were examined with MRI. Two radiologists retrospectively and independently assessed each tumor`s T1 and T2 signal intensity qualitatively and quantitatively (i.e., the signal intensity [SI] ratio [tumor SI/renal cortex SI]). Of the 49 tumors, 37 (76%) were assessed for pathology features including tumor architecture and the presence of hemosiderin, ferritin, necrosis, and fibrosis. MRI findings and pathology features were correlated. Statistical methods included summary statistics and Wilcoxon`s rank sum test for signal intensity, contingency tables for assessing reader agreement, concordance rate between the two readers with 95% CIs, and Fisher`s exact test for independence, all stratified by RCC type. RESULTS. Papillary RCCs and clear cell RCCs had a similar appearance and signal intensity ratio on T1-weighted images. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs were hypointense (reader 1, 13/21; reader 2, 14/21), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 0.67 +/- 0.2, and none was hyperintense, whereas most clear cell RCCs were hyperintense (reader 1, 21/28; reader 2, 17/28), with an average mean signal intensity ratio for both readers of 1.41 +/- 0.4 (p < 0.05). A tumor T2 signal intensity ratio of <= 0.66 had a specificity of 100% and sensitivity of 54% for papillary RCC. Most T2 hypointense tumors exhibited predominant papillary architecture; most T2 hyperintense tumors had a predominant nested architecture (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION. On T2-weighted images, most papillary RCCs are hypointense and clear cell RCCs, hyperintense. The T2 hypointense appearance of papillary RCCs correlated with a predominant papillary architecture at pathology.

Metabolic differences between male and female adolescents with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, as detected by ultrasound

Background: Age, developmental stage and gender are risk factors for paediatric non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Aims: The aim of this study was to identify differences in clinical or laboratory variables between sexes in adolescents with NAFLD. Methodology: Ninety obese adolescents including 36 males and 54 females were evaluated. Inclusion criteria for this study were a Body Mass Index above the 95th percentile, as set forth by the National Center for Health Statistics, and an age of 10-19 years. A clinical and laboratory evaluation was conducted for all adolescents. Results: The variables that were found to be predictive of NAFLD in adolescence were visceral fat, Aminotransferase, Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase, triglyderides, cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol. We also observed that cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol variables were influenced by gender, i.e. there was a significant statistical difference in the values of these variables between male and female adolescents. With regard to cholesterol serum concentrations, the risk was 6.99 times greater for females, compared with 1.2 times for males; and for LDL-cholesterol serum concentrations the risk was 8.15 times greater for females, compared with and 1.26 times for males. Conclusion: Female adolescents with NAFLD showed a significantly different metabolic behaviour than males.

SPINAL POSTURAL ALIGNMENT VARIANCE ACCORDING TO SEX AND AGE IN 7-AND 8-YEAR-OLD CHILDREN

Purpose: Children`s postural alignment undergoes many adjustments due to the changes in body proportions during the stages of growth. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize and analyze spinal postural standards in 7- and 8-year-old children to verify which of the differences found were correlated to age and sex. Methods: Two hundred thirty public school students (Amparo, Sao Paulo, Brazil) aged 7 to 8 years were divided into groups according to postural alignment, which were further subdivided by sex and age, for comparison. Digital photos of upright Subjects were analyzed to evaluate posture. Lumbar and thoracic curvature, pelvic inclination, head posture, and lateral spine deviation were measured using CorelDraw (Ottawa, Canada) software guidelines and bone landmarks. Descriptive statistics and analysis of variance data analysis were utilized to verify differences among the groups. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Results: Mean values for the variables analyzed were calculated. For lumbar lordosis, 7-year-old boys showed 38.49 degrees +/- 15.32 degrees in comparison to all other groups (42.29 degrees +/- 7.13 degrees). For thoracic kyphosis, the 7-year-old children presented 28.07 degrees +/- 7.73 degrees. and the 8-year-olds 30.32 degrees +/- 7.73 degrees. Pelvic inclination presented a mean value of 15.82 degrees +/- 5.46 degrees and single lateral spine deviation mean value of 3.48 degrees +/- 2.12 degrees. Conclusion: For the sample studied, differences based on sex and age were found for some of the body segments analyzed. The values found in this study may contribute to improved physiotherapeutic treatment when associated with other aspects of the clinical assessment and symptomatology. (J Manipulative Physiol Ther 2009;32: 154-159)

Risk Score to Predict the Outcome of Patients with Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis

Background: Around 15% of patients die or become dependent after cerebral vein and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT). Method: We used the International Study on Cerebral Vein and Dural Sinus Thrombosis (ISCVT) sample (624 patients, with a median follow-up time of 478 days) to develop a Cox proportional hazards regression model to predict outcome, dichotomised by a modified Rankin Scale score > 2. From the model hazard ratios, a risk score was derived and a cut-off point selected. The model and the score were tested in 2 validation samples: (1) the prospective Cerebral Venous Thrombosis Portuguese Collaborative Study Group (VENO-PORT) sample with 91 patients; (2) a sample of 169 consecutive CVT patients admitted to 5 ISCVT centres after the end of the ISCVT recruitment period. Sensitivity, specificity, c statistics and overall efficiency to predict outcome at 6 months were calculated. Results: The model (hazard ratios: malignancy 4.53; coma 4.19; thrombosis of the deep venous system 3.03; mental status disturbance 2.18; male gender 1.60; intracranial haemorrhage 1.42) had overall efficiencies of 85.1, 84.4 and 90.0%, in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Using the risk score (range from 0 to 9) with a cut-off of 6 3 points, overall efficiency was 85.4, 84.4 and 90.1% in the derivation sample and validation samples 1 and 2, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity in the combined samples were 96.1 and 13.6%, respectively. Conclusions: The CVT risk score has a good estimated overall rate of correct classifications in both validation samples, but its specificity is low. It can be used to avoid unnecessary or dangerous interventions in low-risk patients, and may help to identify high-risk CVT patients. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Validation of the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, Modified Rankin Scale and Barthel Index in Brazil: The Role of Cultural Adaptation and Structured Interviewing

Background: We aimed to validate three widely used scales in stroke research in a multiethnic Brazilian population. Methods: The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), modified Rankin Scale (mRS) and Barthel Index (BI) were translated, culturally adapted and applied by two independent investigators. The mRS was applied with or without a previously validated structured interview. Interobserver agreement (kappa statistics) and intraclass correlation coefficients were calculated. Results: 84 patients underwent mRS (56 with and 28 without a structured interview), 57 BI and 62 NIHSS scoring. Intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.902 for NIHSS and 0.967 for BI. For BI, interobserver agreement was good (kappa = 0.70). For mRS, the structured interview improved interobserver agreement (kappa = 0.34 without a structured interview; 0.75 with a structured interview). Conclusion: The NIHSS, BI and mRS show good validity when translated and culturally adapted. Using a structured interview for the mRS improves interobserver concordance rates. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Carapace dentition patterns, morphometrics and allozyme differentiation amongst two toothed freshwater crab species (Potamonautes warreni and P-unispinus) (Decapoda : Brachyura : Potamonautidae) from river systems in South Africa

The taxonomic relationship between two toothed South African river crabs, Potamonautes warreni and P. unispinus, is unclear. The problem stems from the widespread variation in carapace dentition patterns amongst P. warreni individuals over its biogeographic range, where single toothed individuals may appear similar in carapace morphology to P. unispinus. Ten populations of P. warreni and 18 populations of P. unispinus were collected and the morphometric and genetic differentiation between the two taxa quantified. Patterns of morphometric and genetic variation were examined using multivariate statistics and protein gel electrophoresis, respectively. Principal component analyses of carapace characters showed that the two species are morphologically indistinguishable. However, discriminate functions analyses and additional statistical results corroborate the morphological distinction between the two taxa. Allozyme electrophoresis of 17 protein coding loci, indicated a close genetic similarity between the two species (I = 0.92). A fixed allelic difference at one locus (LT-2) and extensive genetic variability at another locus (PGM-1) indicate that two gene pools are present and that the two taxa are genetically isolated. Intraspecific genetic I values for both species were > 0.97 and indicated no apparent genetic structuring on a micro or macro-geographic scale. The variation in carapace dentition among P. warreni populations possesses no genetic basis and may possibly toe the product of ecogenesis. The value of dentition patterns in the systematics of river crabs is discussed. Dentition patterns among river crab species appear to be conserved and reliable as species specific diagnostic markers, but should ideally be used in combination with other morphological data sets and genetic evidence.

Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

Evaluating the use of in-store measures in retail food stores and restaurants in Brazil

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To assess inter-rater reliability, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of retail food store, open-air food market, and restaurant observation tools adapted to the Brazilian urban context.METHODS This study is part of a cross-sectional observation survey conducted in 13 districts across the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2010-2011. Food store and restaurant observational tools were developed based on previously available tools, and then tested it. They included measures on the availability, variety, quality, pricing, and promotion of fruits and vegetables and ultra-processed foods. We used Kappa statistics and intra-class correlation coefficients to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliabilities in samples of 142 restaurants, 97 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), and of 62 restaurants and 45 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), respectively. Construct validity as the tool’s abilities to discriminate based on store types and different income contexts were assessed in the entire sample: 305 retail food stores, 8 fruits and vegetable markets, and 472 restaurants.RESULTS Inter-rater and test-retest reliability were generally high, with most Kappa values greater than 0.70 (range 0.49-1.00). Both tools discriminated between store types and neighborhoods with different median income. Fruits and vegetables were more likely to be found in middle to higher-income neighborhoods, while soda, fruit-flavored drink mixes, cookies, and chips were cheaper and more likely to be found in lower-income neighborhoods.CONCLUSIONS The measures were reliable and able to reveal significant differences across store types and different contexts. Although some items may require revision, results suggest that the tools may be used to reliably measure the food stores and restaurant food environment in urban settings of middle-income countries. Such studies can help .inform health promotion interventions and policies in these contexts.