An oracle approach for interaction neighborhood estimation in random fields

We consider the problem of interaction neighborhood estimation from the partial observation of a finite number of realizations of a random field. We introduce a model selection rule to choose estimators of conditional probabilities among natural candidates. Our main result is an oracle inequality satisfied by the resulting estimator. We use then this selection rule in a two-step procedure to evaluate the interacting neighborhoods. The selection rule selects a small prior set of possible interacting points and a cutting step remove from this prior set the irrelevant points. We also prove that the Ising models satisfy the assumptions of the main theorems, without restrictions on the temperature, on the structure of the interacting graph or on the range of the interactions. It provides therefore a large class of applications for our results. We give a computationally efficient procedure in these models. We finally show the practical efficiency of our approach in a simulation study.

Tidal-amplitude rhythms of larval release: variable departure from presumed optimal timing among populations of the mottled shore crab

It is widely assumed that optimal timing of larval release is of major importance to offspring survival, but the extent to which environmental factors entrain synchronous reproductive rhythms in natural populations is not well known. We sampled the broods of ovigerous females of the common shore crab Pachygrapsus transversus at both sheltered and exposed rocky shores interspersed along a so-km coastline, during four different periods, to better assess inter-population differences of larval release timing and to test for the effect of wave action. Shore-specific patterns were consistent through time. Maximum release fell within 1 day around syzygies on all shores, which matched dates of maximum tidal amplitude. Within this very narrow range, populations at exposed shores anticipated hatching compared to those at sheltered areas, possibly due to mechanical stimulation by wave action. Average departures from syzygial release ranged consistently among shores from 2.4 to 3.3 days, but in this case we found no evidence for the effect of wave exposure. Therefore, processes varying at the scale of a few kilometres affect the precision of semilunar timing and may produce differences in the survival of recently hatched larvae. Understanding the underlying mechanisms causing departures from presumed optimal release timing is thus important for a more comprehensive evaluation of reproductive success of invertebrate populations.

Retention-favorable timing of propagule release in barnacles and periwinkles

Recent studies on the ecology of marine larvae suggest that retention near coastal areas and self-recruitment are probably much more common than previously thought. In light of this, the advective potential of pelagic stages can be partially determined by the timing of propagule release. We sampled the upper-shore levels of a subtropical coastline in southeastern Brazil to examine the temporal patterns of propagule release for the common barnacle Chthamalus bisinuatus and the periwinkle Nodilittorina lineolata. The release timing in both species was very consistent between sites a few kilometers apart. Barnacles released nauplii in a rhythmic pattern, mostly coinciding with neap tides, when the speed of tidal currents was lowest. There was no variation in propagule release in relation to diel or flood-ebb tidal cycles. Periwinkles released propagules in a very irregular pattern, which remarkably matched a time series of wave heights. Egg capsules were released during periods of rough seas, when onshore surface currents were expected to prevail. Eggs were released mostly during ebb tides, and there was no diel variation. Propagule release rhythms are usually viewed as a means to ensure fast offshore advection, thus avoiding presumed hazardous conditions for larvae. However, propagule release strategies in these upper-shore species would more likely contribute to the retention of offspring close to parental stocks.

Intercepting moving targets: does memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement affect movement timing?

This investigation aimed at assessing the extent to which memory from practice in a specific condition of target displacement modulates temporal errors and movement timing of interceptive movements. We compared two groups practicing with certainty of future target velocity either in unchanged target velocity or in target velocity decrease. Following practice, both experimental groups were probed in the situations of unchanged target velocity and target velocity decrease either under the context of certainty or uncertainty about target velocity. Results from practice showed similar improvement of temporal accuracy between groups, revealing that target velocity decrease did not disturb temporal movement organization when fully predictable. Analysis of temporal errors in the probing trials indicated that both groups had higher timing accuracy in velocity decrease in comparison with unchanged velocity. Effect of practice was detected by increased temporal accuracy of the velocity decrease group in situations of decreased velocity; a trend consistent with the expected effect of practice was observed for temporal errors in the unchanged velocity group and in movement initiation at a descriptive level. An additional point of theoretical interest was the fast adaptation in both groups to a target velocity pattern different from that practiced. These points are discussed under the perspective of integration of vision and motor control by means of an internal forward model of external motion.

Non-exhaustive tests for critical power estimation

Objective. - The aim of this study was to propose a new method that allows for the estimation of critical power (CP) from non-exhaustive tests using ratings of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods. - Twenty-two subjects underwent two practice trials for ergometer and Borg 15-point scale familiarization, and adaptation to severe exhaustive exercise. After then, four exercise bouts were performed on different days for the estimation of CP and anaerobic work capacity (AWC) by linear work-time equation, and CP(15), CP(17), AWC(15) and AWC(17) were estimated using the work and time to attainment of RPE15 and RPE17 based on the Borg 15-point scale. Results. - The CP, CP(15) and CP(17) (170-177W) were not significantly different (P>0.05). However, AWC, AWC(15) and AWC(17) were all different from each other. The correlations between CP(15) and CP(17), with CP were strong (R=0.871 and 0.911, respectively), but the AWC(15) and AWC(17) were not significantly correlated with AWC. Conclusion. - Sub-maximal. RPE responses can be used for the estimation of CP from non-exhaustive exercise protocols. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Estimation of hexenuronic acids and kappa number in kraft pulps of Eucalyptus globulus by Fourier transform near infrared spectroscopy and multivariate analysis

Fourier transform near infrared (FT-NIR) spectroscopy was evaluated as an analytical too[ for monitoring residual Lignin, kappa number and hexenuronic acids (HexA) content in kraft pulps of Eucalyptus globulus. Sets of pulp samples were prepared under different cooking conditions to obtain a wide range of compound concentrations that were characterised by conventional wet chemistry analytical methods. The sample group was also analysed using FT-NIR spectroscopy in order to establish prediction models for the pulp characteristics. Several models were applied to correlate chemical composition in samples with the NIR spectral data by means of PCR or PLS algorithms. Calibration curves were built by using all the spectral data or selected regions. Best calibration models for the quantification of lignin, kappa and HexA were proposed presenting R-2 values of 0.99. Calibration models were used to predict pulp titers of 20 external samples in a validation set. The lignin concentration and kappa number in the range of 1.4-18% and 8-62, respectively, were predicted fairly accurately (standard error of prediction, SEP 1.1% for lignin and 2.9 for kappa). The HexA concentration (range of 5-71 mmol kg(-1) pulp) was more difficult to predict and the SEP was 7.0 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by an ultraviolet (UV) technique and 6.1 mmol kg(-1) pulp in a model of HexA quantified by anion-exchange chromatography (AEC). Even in wet chemical procedures used for HexA determination, there is no good agreement between methods as demonstrated by the UV and AEC methods described in the present work. NIR spectroscopy did provide a rapid estimate of HexA content in kraft pulps prepared in routine cooking experiments.

An approach based on neural networks for estimation and generalization of crossflow filtration processes

The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behaviour. In this paper, a system based on artificial neural networks is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. More specifically, the developed system uses an artificial neural network that simulates the behaviour of the crossflow filtration process in a robust way. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the neural approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Innovation concept for measurement gross error detection and identification in power system state estimation

In this study, the innovation approach is used to estimate the measurement total error associated with power system state estimation. This is required because the power system equations are very much correlated with each other and as a consequence part of the measurements errors is masked. For that purpose an index, innovation index (II), which provides the quantity of new information a measurement contains is proposed. A critical measurement is the limit case of a measurement with low II, it has a zero II index and its error is totally masked. In other words, that measurement does not bring any innovation for the gross error test. Using the II of a measurement, the masked gross error by the state estimation is recovered; then the total gross error of that measurement is composed. Instead of the classical normalised measurement residual amplitude, the corresponding normalised composed measurement residual amplitude is used in the gross error detection and identification test, but with m degrees of freedom. The gross error processing turns out to be very simple to implement, requiring only few adaptations to the existing state estimation software. The IEEE-14 bus system is used to validate the proposed gross error detection and identification test.

A boundary element formulation for analysis of elastoplastic plates with geometrical nonlinearity

In this paper a new boundary element method formulation for elastoplastic analysis of plates with geometrical nonlinearities is presented. The von Mises criterion with linear isotropic hardening is considered to evaluate the plastic zone. Large deflections are assumed but within the context of small strain. To derive the boundary integral equations the von Karman`s hypothesis is taken into account. An initial stress field is applied to correct the true stresses according to the adopted criterion. Isoparametric linear elements are used to approximate the boundary unknown values while triangular internal cells with linear shape function are adopted to evaluate the domain value influences. The nonlinear system of equations is solved by using an implicit scheme together with the consistent tangent operator derived along the paper. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the validity of the proposed formulation.

Estimation of Mass Transfer Velocity Based on Measured Turbulence Parameters

The aim of this study is to quantify the mass transfer velocity using turbulence parameters from simultaneous measurements of oxygen concentration fields and velocity fields. The surface divergence model was considered in more detail, using data obtained for the lower range of beta (surface divergence). It is shown that the existing models that use the divergence concept furnish good predictions for the transfer velocity also for low values of beta, in the range of this study. Additionally, traditional conceptual models, such as the film model, the penetration-renewal model, and the large eddy model, were tested using the simultaneous information of concentration and velocity fields. It is shown that the film and the surface divergence models predicted the mass transfer velocity for all the range of the equipment Reynolds number used here. The velocity measurements showed viscosity effects close to the surface, which indicates that the surface was contaminated with some surfactant. Considering the results, this contamination can be considered slight for the mass transfer predictions. (C) 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 56: 2005-2017; 2010

CONCENTRATION FIELDS NEAR AIR-WATER INTERFACES DURING INTERFACIAL MASS TRANSPORT: OXYGEN TRANSPORT AND RANDOM SQUARE WAVE ANALYSIS

Mass transfer across a gas-liquid interface was studied theoretically and experimentally, using transfer of oxygen into water as the gas-liquid system. The experimental results support the conclusions of a theoretical description of the concentration field that uses random square waves approximations. The effect of diffusion over the concentration records was quantified. It is shown that the peak of the normalized rills concentration fluctuation profiles must be lower than 0.5, and that the position of the peak of the rms value is an adequate measure of the thickness of the diffusive layer. The position of the peak is the boundary between the regions more subject to molecular diffusion or to turbulent transport of dissolved mass.

Distribution systems fault analysis considering fault resistance estimation

Fault resistance is a critical component of electric power systems operation due to its stochastic nature. If not considered, this parameter may interfere in fault analysis studies. This paper presents an iterative fault analysis algorithm for unbalanced three-phase distribution systems that considers a fault resistance estimate. The proposed algorithm is composed by two sub-routines, namely the fault resistance and the bus impedance. The fault resistance sub-routine, based on local fault records, estimates the fault resistance. The bus impedance sub-routine, based on the previously estimated fault resistance, estimates the system voltages and currents. Numeric simulations on the IEEE 37-bus distribution system demonstrate the algorithm`s robustness and potential for offline applications, providing additional fault information to Distribution Operation Centers and enhancing the system restoration process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recursive linear estimation for general discrete-time descriptor systems

This paper considers the optimal linear estimates recursion problem for discrete-time linear systems in its more general formulation. The system is allowed to be in descriptor form, rectangular, time-variant, and with the dynamical and measurement noises correlated. We propose a new expression for the filter recursive equations which presents an interesting simple and symmetric structure. Convergence of the associated Riccati recursion and stability properties of the steady-state filter are provided. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-phase harmonic distortion state estimation algorithm based on evolutionary strategies

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate unbalanced harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The problem solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power quality meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology GPS devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow, what makes the overall power quality monitoring system much less costly. The ES based harmonic estimation model is applied to a 14 bus network to compare its performance to a conventional Monte Carlo approach. It is also applied to a 50 bus subtransmission network in order to compare the three-phase and single-phase approaches as well as the robustness of the proposed method. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Harmonic Distortion State Estimation Using an Evolutionary Strategy

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate harmonic distortions in a power system, based on measurements of a limited number of given sites. The algorithm utilizes evolutionary strategies (ES), a development branch of evolutionary algorithms. The main advantage in using such a technique relies upon its modeling facilities as well as its potential to solve fairly complex problems. The problem-solving algorithm herein proposed makes use of data from various power-quality (PQ) meters, which can either be synchronized by high technology global positioning system devices or by using information from a fundamental frequency load flow. This second approach makes the overall PQ monitoring system much less costly. The algorithm is applied to an IEEE test network, for which sensitivity analysis is performed to determine how the parameters of the ES can be selected so that the algorithm performs in an effective way. Case studies show fairly promising results and the robustness of the proposed method.