Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Ecology of sponge assemblages (Porifera) in the Wakatobi region, south-east Sulawesi, Indonesia: richness and abundance

The influence of sedimentation, depth and substratum angle on sponge assemblages in the Wakatobi region, south-eastern Sulawesi, Indonesia was considered. Sponge assemblages were sampled from two reef localities. The first reef (Sampela) was highly impacted by high sedimentation rates with fine sediment particles that settle slowly, while the second (Hoga) experienced only fast settling coarse sediment with lower overall sedimentation rates. Sponge assemblages were sampled (area occupied and numbers) on the reef fiat (0 m) and at 5 (reef crest), 10 and 15 m (15 m at Hoga only). Some significant (P < 0.001) differences were observed in the area occupied and the number of sponge patches between surface angles and sites. Significantly lower (t > 4.61, df = 9, P < 0.001) sponge numbers, percentage cover and richness were associated with the reef flat at both sites compared with all other depths at each site, with the exception of abundance of sponges on the reef flat at Sampela, which was much greater than at any other depth sampled. Species richness increased with depth at both sites but differences between surface angles were only recorded at Sampela, with higher species richness being found on vertical, inclined and horizontal surfaces respectively A total of 100 sponge species (total area sampled 52.5 m(2)) was reported from the two sites, with 58 species found at Sampela and 71 species at Hoga (41% of species shared). Multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) indicated differences in assemblage structure between sites and most depth intervals, but not substratum angles. A number of biological (e.g. competition and predation) and physical (e.g. sedimentation and aerial exposure) factors were considered to control sponge abundance and richness. Unexpectedly a significant (F-1,F-169 = 148.98, P < 0.001) positive linear relationship was found between sponge density and area occupied. In areas of high sponge coverage, the number of patches was also high, possibly due to fragmentation of large sponges produced as a result of predation and physical disturbance. The MDS results were also the same whether sponge numbers or percentage cover estimates were used, suggesting that although these different approaches yield different sorts of information, the same assemblage structure can be identified.

Monitoring growth of hard corals as performance indicators for coral reefs

Digital videophotography, computer image analysis and physical measurements have been used to monitor sedimentation rates, coral cover, genera richness, rugosity and estimated recruitment dates of massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, Indonesia, and on the reefs around Discovery Bay, Jamaica. Semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders in the Wakatobi Marine National Park indicated that coral mining was extensively practised, and is responsible for the absence of large non-branching corals on the Sampela reef Blast fishing is also practised in the Wakatobi Marine Park, and the authors, together with students, showed that blast fishing resulted in coral bleaching and not mortality of two Porites lutea colonies. In addition, we showed that monitoring of bleaching in Porites colonies induced by blast fishing could be a useful way of monitoring blast fishing practices in susceptible areas in the Indo-Pacific. The techniques used in this study are appropriate for use by volunteers with sufficient training, and provide excellent projects for dissertation students reading undergraduate degrees.

Computer modelling and estimation of recruitment patterns of non-branching coral colonies at three sites in Wakatobi Marine Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia; implications for coral reef conservation

We have studied growth and estimated recruitment of massive coral colonies at three sites, Kaledupa, Hoga and Sampela, separated by about 1.5 km in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. There was significantly higher species richness (P<0.05), coral cover (P<0.05) and rugosity (P<0.01) at Kaledupa than at Sampela. A model for coral reef growth has been developed based on a rational polynomial function, where dx/dt is an index of coral growth with time; W is the variable (for example, coral weight, coral length or coral area), up to the power of n in the numerator and m in the denominator; a1……an and b1…bm are constants. The values for n and m represent the degree of the polynomial, and can relate to the morphology of the coral. The model was used to simulate typical coral growth curves, and tested using published data obtained by weighing coral colonies underwater in reefs on the south-west coast of Curaçao [‘Neth. J. Sea Res. 10 (1976) 285’]. The model proved an accurate fit to the data, and parameters were obtained for a number of coral species. Surface area data was obtained on over 1200 massive corals at three different sites in the Wakatobi Marine National Park, S.E. Sulawesi, Indonesia. The year of an individual's recruitment was calculated from knowledge of the growth rate modified by application of the rational polynomial model. The estimated pattern of recruitment was variable, with little numbers of massive corals settling and growing before 1950 at the heavily used site, Sampela, relative to the reef site with little or no human use, Kaledupa, and the intermediate site, Hoga. There was a significantly greater sedimentation rate at Sampela than at either Kaledupa (P<0.0001) or Hoga (P<0.0005). The relative mean abundance of fish families present at the reef crests at the three sites, determined using digital video photography, did not correlate with sedimentation rates, underwater visibility or lack of large non-branching coral colonies. Radial growth rates of three genera of non-branching corals were significantly lower at Sampela than at Kaledupa or at Hoga, and there was a high correlation (r=0.89) between radial growth rates and underwater visibility. Porites spp. was the most abundant coral over all the sites and at all depths followed by Favites (P<0.04) and Favia spp. (P<0.03). Colony ages of Porites corals were significantly lower at the 5 m reef flat on the Sampela reef than at the same depth on both other reefs (P<0.005). At Sampela, only 2.8% of corals on the 5 m reef crest are of a size to have survived from before 1950. The Scleractinian coral community of Sampela is severely impacted by depositing sediments which can lead to the suffocation of corals, whilst also decreasing light penetration resulting in decreased growth and calcification rates. The net loss of material from Sampela, if not checked, could result in the loss of this protective barrier which would be to the detriment of the sublittoral sand flats and hence the Sampela village.

Low-molecular-weight gelators: Elucidating the principles of gelation based on gelator solubility and a cooperative self-assembly model

This paper highlights the key role played by solubility in influencing gelation and demonstrates that many facets of the gelation process depend on this vital parameter. In particular, we relate thermal stability (T-gel) and minimum gelation concentration (MGC) values of small-molecule gelation in terms of the solubility and cooperative self-assembly of gelator building blocks. By employing a van't Hoff analysis of solubility data, determined from simple NMR measurements, we are able to generate T-calc values that reflect the calculated temperature for complete solubilization of the networked gelator. The concentration dependence of T-calc allows the previously difficult to rationalize "plateau-region" thermal stability values to be elucidated in terms of gelator molecular design. This is demonstrated for a family of four gelators with lysine units attached to each end of an aliphatic diamine, with different peripheral groups (Z or Bee) in different locations on the periphery of the molecule. By tuning the peripheral protecting groups of the gelators, the solubility of the system is modified, which in turn controls the saturation point of the system and hence controls the concentration at which network formation takes place. We report that the critical concentration (C-crit) of gelator incorporated into the solid-phase sample-spanning network within the gel is invariant of gelator structural design. However, because some systems have higher solubilities, they are less effective gelators and require the application of higher total concentrations to achieve gelation, hence shedding light on the role of the MGC parameter in gelation. Furthermore, gelator structural design also modulates the level of cooperative self-assembly through solubility effects, as determined by applying a cooperative binding model to NMR data. Finally, the effect of gelator chemical design on the spatial organization of the networked gelator was probed by small-angle neutron and X-ray scattering (SANS/SAXS) on the native gel, and a tentative self-assembly model was proposed.

Self-organisation in the assembly of gels from mixtures of different dendritic peptide building blocks

This paper investigates dendritic peptides capable of assembling into nanostructured gels, and explores the effect on self-assembly of mixing different molecular building blocks. Thermal measurements, small angle Xray scattering (SAXS) and circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy are used to probe these materials on macroscopic, nanoscopic and molecular length scales. The results from these investigations demonstrate that in this case, systems with different "size" and "chirality" factors can self-organise, whilst systems with different "shape" factors cannot. The "size" and "chirality" factors are directly connected with the molecular information programmed into the dendritic peptides, whilst the shape factor depends on the group linking these peptides together-this is consistent with molecular recognition hydrogen bond pathways between the peptidic building blocks controlling the ability of these systems to self-recognise. These results demonstrate that mixtures of relatively complex peptides, with only subtle differences on the molecular scale, can self-organise into nanoscale structures, an important step in the spontaneous assembly of ordered systems from complex mixtures.

Self-assembly of two-component gels: stoichiometric control and component selection

Two-component systems capable of self-assembling into soft gel-phase materials are of considerable interest due to their tunability and versatility. This paper investigates two-component gels based on a combination of a L-lysine-based dendron and a rigid diamine spacer (1,4-diaminobenzene or 1,4-diaminocyclohexane). The networked gelator was investigated using thermal measurements, circular dichroism, NMR spectroscopy and small angle neutron scattering (SANS) giving insight into the macroscopic properties, nanostructure and molecular-scale organisation. Surprisingly, all of these techniques confirmed that irrespective of the molar ratio of the components employed, the "solid-like" gel network always consisted of a 1:1 mixture of dendron/diamine. Additionally, the gel network was able to tolerate a significant excess of diamine in the "liquid-like" phase before being disrupted. In the light of this observation, we investigated the ability of the gel network structure to evolve from mixtures of different aromatic diamines present in excess. We found that these two-component gels assembled in a component-selective manner, with the dendron preferentially recognising 1,4-diaminobenzene (>70%). when similar competitor diamines (1,2- and 1,3-diaminobenzene) are present. Furthermore, NMR relaxation measurements demonstrated that the gel based oil 1,4-diaminobenzene was better able to form a selective ternary complex with pyrene than the gel based oil 1,4-diaminocyclohexane, indicative of controlled and selective pi-pi interactions within a three-component assembly. As such, the results ill this paper demonstrate how component selection processes in two-component gel systems call control hierarchical self-assembly.

A direct comparison of one- and two-component dendritic self-assembled materials: elucidating molecular recognition pathways

This paper compares and contrasts, for the first time, one- and two-component gelation systems that are direct structural analogues and draws conclusions about the molecular recognition pathways that underpin fibrillar self-assembly. The new one-component systems comprise L-lysine-based dendritic headgroups covalently connected to an aliphatic diamine spacer chain via an amide bond, One-component gelators with different generations of headgroup (from first to third generation) and different length spacer chains are reported. The self-assembly of these dendrimers in toluene was elucidated using thermal measurements, circular dichroism (CD) and NMR spectroscopies, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The observations are compared with previous results for the analogous two-component gelation system in which the dendritic headgroups are bound to the aliphatic spacer chain noncovalently via acid-amine interactions. The one-component system is inherently a more effective gelator, partly as a consequence of the additional covalent amide groups that provide a new hydrogen bonding molecular recognition pathway, whereas the two-component analogue relies solely on intermolecular hydrogen bond interactions between the chiral dendritic headgroups. Furthermore, because these amide groups are important in the assembly process for the one-component system, the chiral information preset in the dendritic headgroups is not always transcribed into the nanoscale assembly, whereas for the two-component system, fiber formation is always accompanied by chiral ordering because the molecular recognition pathway is completely dependent on hydrogen bond interactions between well-organized chiral dendritic headgroups.