On The Timing of Default Losses: When and Why?

At the light of what happened in 2010 and 2011, a lot of European countries founded themselves in a difficult position where all the credit rating agencies were downgrading debt states. Problem of solvency and guarantees on the states' bond were perceived as too risky for a Monetary Union as Europe is. Fear of a contagion from Greece as well was threatening the other countries as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland; while Germany and France asked for a division between risky and riskless bond in order to feel more safe. Our paper gets inspiration by Roch and Uhlig (2011), it refers to the Argentinian case examined by Arellano (2008) and examine possible interventions as monetization or bailout as proposed by Cole and Kehoe (2000). We propose a model in which a state defaults and cannot repay a fraction of the old bond; but contrary to Roch and Uhlig that where considering a one-time cost of default we consider default as an accumulation of losses, perceived as unpaid fractions of the old debts. Our contributions to literature is that default immediately imply that economy faces a bad period and, accumulating losses, government will be worse-off. We studied a function for this accumulation of debt period by period, in order to get an idea of the magnitude of this waste of resources that economy will face when experiences a default. Our thesis is that bailouts just postpone the day of reckoning (Roch, Uhlig); so it's better to default before accumulate a lot of debts. What Europe need now is the introduction of new reforms in a controlled default where the Eurozone will be saved in its whole integrity and a state could fail with the future promise of a resurrection. As experience show us, governments are not interested into reducing debts since there are ECB interventions. That clearly create a distortion between countries in the same monetary union, giving to the states just an illusion about their future debtor position.

Virus infections and winter losses of honey bee colonies (Apis mellifera)

Apiculturists have recently been confronted with drastic and inexplicable winter losses of colonies, and virus infections may be involved. Here, we surveyed 337 Swiss honey bee colonies in the winter of 2005 and 2006 and categorized their health status as: 1. dead (= no or few live bees left); 2. weak (= dwindling, high mortality of adult bees); or 3. healthy (= normal overwintering colony). From each colony, pooled adult workers were analyzed for deformed wing virus (DWV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV), chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV) and Kashmir bee virus (KBV). Neither KBV nor CBPV were found, but significantly higher ABPV and DWV infections were found in dead vs. weak vs. healthy colonies (except DWV in 2006 between weak and healthy). Moreover, ABPV and DWV loads were positively correlated with each other. This is the first report demonstrating statistically significant correlations between viruses associated with Varroa destructor and winter mortality.

Winter Losses of Honeybee Colonies (Hymenoptera: Apidae): The Role of Infestations With Aethina tumida (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) and Varroa destructor (Parasitiformes: Varroidae)

Multiple infections of managed honeybee, Apis mellifera, colonies are inevitable due to the ubiquitous ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor and might be an underlying cause of winter losses. Here we investigated the role of adult small hive beetles, Aethina tumida, alone and in combination with V. destructor for winter losses and for infections with the microsporidian endoparasite Nosema ceranae. We found no significant influence of A. tumida and V destructor alone or in combination on the numbers of N. ceranae spores. Likewise, A. tumida alone had no significant effects on winter losses, which is most likely due to the observed high winter mortality of the adult beetles. Therefore, our data suggest that A. tumida is unlikely to contribute to losses of overwintering honeybee colonies. However, high losses occurred in all groups highly infested with V. destructor, supporting the central role of the mite for colony losses.

Shading Silhouettes of Smaller Ones

I am truly honored to have been given the amazing opportunity to create this original piece, this powerful journey through memory and emotive exploration of the loss of childhood. How do we feel about the loss of our child-self? Could we ever get them back? How long, how deep would one have to dig in the graveyards, the playgrounds of memory, to uncover what was buried there... to un-erase what waserased? shading silhouettes of smaller ones will ultimately encourage a reconnection with the Inner Child hidden inside all of us, as well as an intimate awareness of the adult version of the self by looking back to the smaller ones. The main inspiration for this piece is then of course, Inner Child Work. Most people may not be familiar with this therapeutic exploration of childhood... It wasimportant to me then, to present this concept in an imaginative, theatrical way, as a gift to you - a comprehensive and intensely moving gift. Speaking from experience, working on my Inner Child - my little Bianca - has been the most painful, frightening, yetrewarding and powerful experience within my personal life. Some people spend their entire lives trying to love themselves, to prove themselves, or be accepted. Some are too afraid to look back to where it all began. The characters within this piece will face thatfear... in a regression from the complexities of adulthood to the confusion of adolescence, all the way back to the wonder and bliss of childhood. They will reveal memories, of both joy and pain, love and abandonment, journeying backwards through time - through memory - through a playground - back to the beginning... We will enter a world where a push of a merry-go-round spins us to games of Truth or Dare after a high school dance at 16 - or the slam of a metal fence reminds us of the door Dad slammed in our face at 9 - where the sound of chain links swings us back to scrapping our knee by the sandbox at 5 This piece will attempt to connect everyone, both cast and audience, through a universal understanding and discussion of what it means to grow up, as well as a discovery of WHY we are the way we are - how experiences or relationships from our childhood have shaped our adult lives. We will attempt to challenge your honesty and nerve by inviting you to ask questions of yourselves, your past - to remember what it's like to have the innocence and hope of a child, to engage with and discover your Inner Child, to realize when or why you left them behind, and if you want to this magical part of yourself. It is my hope that you will join us in a collective journey - gather the courage to dig up the little kid you buried so long ago...* The creation, design, choreography, and direction for shading silhouettes of smaller ones mark the culminating experience of a year-long independent study in Theatre.

Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.