L'intégration de l'adaptation au changement climatique dans la conduite des politiques publiques: déficit de mise en oeuvre ou déficit de légitimité?

L'échec des tentatives de juguler les émissions globales de gaz à effet de serre a mené au renforcement d'un discours sur la nécessité de l'adaptation au changement climatique. Il est de plus souvent considéré qu'une transformation de l'action publique serait nécessaire afin de réduire les impacts de grande magnitude qui découlent du changement climatique. Depuis les années 2000, on constate ainsi un développement des activités étatiques dans le domaine de l'adaptation. Cette évolution suscite une question centrale: quels sont les effets réels que provoque l'intégration de l'adaptation au changement climatique dans la conduite des politiques publiques et comment expliquer les éventuelles limites à ces processus? La littérature spécialisée sur l'adaptation fait preuve d'un certain réductionnisme à l'égard de la complexité de l'action publique en considérant que lorsque la capacité d'agir contre le problème de la vulnérabilité au changement climatique existe, toute forme d'inaction publique serait un déficit de mise en oeuvre provoqué par des barrières à l'action qu'il faudrait lever. A contrario, cette thèse considère l'adaptation comme une norme de politique publique dont l'intégration est susceptible de provoquer des changements institutionnels dans la forme et le contenu des politiques publiques, et des effets concrets sur les acteurs vulnérables au changement climatique. Afin de mesurer les effets de l'intégration politique de l'adaptation, un concept est formulé sur la base d'un idéal-type du régime institutionnel adaptatif, soit une construction théorique des régulations qu'impliquerait une gestion cohérente du système socioécologique complexe dans lequel s'insère le système climatique. L'auteur propose un cadre d'analyse empirique des processus publics d'adaptation qu'il applique ensuite à deux États: l'Inde (politique agricole) et la Suisse (politique du tourisme hivernal), avec pour objectif de repérer des mécanismes explicatifs communs aux effets de l'intégration dans ces deux contextes extrêmement dissemblables. L'étude débouche sur six résultats qui constituent une contribution appréciable à la littérature. L'auteur montre: premièrement, que l'intégration politique de l'adaptation conduit à une production d'actes symboliques, qui s'explique notamment par le manque de pression publique à agir sur le problème de la vulnérabilité au changement climatique; deuxièmement, que le processus d'intégration agit sur la réalité sociale par le biais d'un mécanisme d'attribution de ressources publiques à certains acteurs du champ politique; troisièmement, que les groupes sociaux qui bénéficient de ces ressources publiques ne sont pas nécessairement les plus vulnérables, mais ceux détenant les ressources d'action nécessaires à l'activation de l'intervention publique; quatrièmement, que l'absence de clefs de répartition des coûts de l'adaptation, de procédures de monitoring et d'instruments d'action contraignants limitent les effets des programmes publics d'adaptation; cinquièmement, que la faible articulation institutionnelle entre objectif d'adaptation et objectifs de protection de l'environnement accentue le risque de processus d'adaptation produisant des externalités environnementales; sixièmement, que les transformations dont la littérature souligne la nécessité ne sont pas nécessairement faisables ni désirables. Sur la base de cette analyse, cette thèse s'écarte de la littérature dominante en concluant que les processus publics d'adaptation ne souffrent pas d'un déficit de mise en oeuvre, mais d'un déficit de légitimité lié à leurs effets pernicieux. L'auteur formule alors trois recommandations pour améliorer la légitimité de ces politiques et trois questions ouvertes sur le futur politique de l'adaptation.

Maps as risk mitigation tools. Adaptation of the Swiss hazard assessment and mapping methodology to a Moroccan site: Beni Mellal

Dans le contexte climatique actuel, les régions méditerranéennes connaissent une intensification des phénomènes hydrométéorologiques extrêmes. Au Maroc, le risque lié aux inondations est devenu problématique, les communautés étant vulnérables aux événements extrêmes. En effet, le développement économique et urbain rapide et mal maîtrisé augmente l'exposition aux phénomènes extrêmes. La Direction du Développement et de la Coopération suisse (DDC) s'implique activement dans la réduction des risques naturels au Maroc. La cartographie des dangers et son intégration dans l'aménagement du territoire représentent une méthode efficace afin de réduire la vulnérabilité spatiale. Ainsi, la DDC a mandaté ce projet d'adaptation de la méthode suisse de cartographie des dangers à un cas d'étude marocain (la ville de Beni Mellal, région de Tadla-Azilal, Maroc). La méthode suisse a été adaptée aux contraintes spécifiques du terrain (environnement semi-aride, morphologie de piémont) et au contexte de transfert de connaissances (caractéristiques socio-économiques et pratiques). Une carte des phénomènes d'inondations a été produite. Elle contient les témoins morphologiques et les éléments anthropiques pertinents pour le développement et l'aggravation des inondations. La modélisation de la relation pluie-débit pour des événements de référence, et le routage des hydrogrammes de crue ainsi obtenus ont permis d'estimer quantitativement l'aléa inondation. Des données obtenues sur le terrain (estimations de débit, extension de crues connues) ont permis de vérifier les résultats des modèles. Des cartes d'intensité et de probabilité ont été obtenues. Enfin, une carte indicative du danger d'inondation a été produite sur la base de la matrice suisse du danger qui croise l'intensité et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement pour obtenir des degrés de danger assignables au territoire étudié. En vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger dans les documents de l'aménagement du territoire, nous nous intéressons au fonctionnement actuel de la gestion institutionnelle du risque à Beni Mellal, en étudiant le degré d'intégration de la gestion et la manière dont les connaissances sur les risques influencent le processus de gestion. L'analyse montre que la gestion est marquée par une logique de gestion hiérarchique et la priorité des mesures de protection par rapport aux mesures passives d'aménagement du territoire. Les connaissances sur le risque restent sectorielles, souvent déconnectées. L'innovation dans le domaine de la gestion du risque résulte de collaborations horizontales entre les acteurs ou avec des sources de connaissances externes (par exemple les universités). Des recommandations méthodologiques et institutionnelles issues de cette étude ont été adressées aux gestionnaires en vue de l'implémentation des cartes de danger. Plus que des outils de réduction du risque, les cartes de danger aident à transmettre des connaissances vers le public et contribuent ainsi à établir une culture du risque. - Severe rainfall events are thought to be occurring more frequently in semi-arid areas. In Morocco, flood hazard has become an important topic, notably as rapid economic development and high urbanization rates have increased the exposure of people and assets in hazard-prone areas. The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SADC) is active in natural hazard mitigation in Morocco. As hazard mapping for urban planning is thought to be a sound tool for vulnerability reduction, the SADC has financed a project aimed at adapting the Swiss approach for hazard assessment and mapping to the case of Morocco. In a knowledge transfer context, the Swiss method was adapted to the semi-arid environment, the specific piedmont morphology and to socio-economic constraints particular to the study site. Following the Swiss guidelines, a hydro-geomorphological map was established, containing all geomorphic elements related to known past floods. Next, rainfall / runoff modeling for reference events and hydraulic routing of the obtained hydrographs were carried out in order to assess hazard quantitatively. Field-collected discharge estimations and flood extent for known floods were used to verify the model results. Flood hazard intensity and probability maps were obtained. Finally, an indicative danger map as defined within the Swiss hazard assessment terminology was calculated using the Swiss hazard matrix that convolves flood intensity with its recurrence probability in order to assign flood danger degrees to the concerned territory. Danger maps become effective, as risk mitigation tools, when implemented in urban planning. We focus on how local authorities are involved in the risk management process and how knowledge about risk impacts the management. An institutional vulnerability "map" was established based on individual interviews held with the main institutional actors in flood management. Results show that flood hazard management is defined by uneven actions and relationships, it is based on top-down decision-making patterns, and focus is maintained on active mitigation measures. The institutional actors embody sectorial, often disconnected risk knowledge pools, whose relationships are dictated by the institutional hierarchy. Results show that innovation in the risk management process emerges when actors collaborate despite the established hierarchy or when they open to outer knowledge pools (e.g. the academia). Several methodological and institutional recommendations were addressed to risk management stakeholders in view of potential map implementation to planning. Hazard assessment and mapping is essential to an integrated risk management approach: more than a mitigation tool, danger maps represent tools that allow communicating on hazards and establishing a risk culture.

Ochlerotatus albifasciatus in rain pools of Buenos Aires: seasonal dynamics and relation to environmental variables

The immature stages of Ochlerotatus albifasciatus develop in temporary pools. The present study aims at evaluating the seasonal dynamics of the aquatic stages of this mosquito, also analyzing the relationship among their presence and breeding success to some relevant climatic and environmental variables in the ephemeral rain pools of an urban park. Nineteen cohorts of O. albifasciatus that developed synchronously after rain events were recorded in all seasons. The proportions of mosquito-positive pools were significantly higher during the fall-winter period than in the spring-summer months (p < 0.001). The presence of this mosquito species was positively related to the amount of rain (p < 0.001), whereas negatively correlated to air temperature (p < 0.05) within a 5.2 to 29.7ºC range. The distribution of the number of cohorts per pool throughout the year was grouped (variance/mean: 3.96), indicating that these habitats were not equally suitable as breeding sites. The immature stages of O. albifasciatus were detected in pools belonging to all of the categories of surface area, depth, duration, vegetation cover, and insolation. However, the proportion of pools where immature mosquitoes were detected was positively and significantly related to surface, depth, duration, and vegetation cover. On the other hand, the proportion of mosquito-positive pools was higher at an intermediate insolation degree. Our results suggest that although preimaginal stages were present in all seasons, high temperatures may be unfavorable to larval development, and substrate vegetation may regulate water temperature. The positive relationship between the proportion of mosquito-positive pools and pool size and duration might reflect a strategy of O. albifasciatus to accomplish immature development.

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Experimental evidence and ecological perspectives for the adaptation of Schistosoma mansoni Sambon, 1907 (Digenea: Schistosomatidae) to a wild host, the water-rat, Nectomys squamipes Brants, 1827 (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae)

Due to the semi aquatic habits and the overlap of the geographical distribution of the water-rat, Nectomys spp., with schistosomiasis endemic areas, these wild rodents are very likely to acquire Schistosoma mansoni infection in their daily activities. The role of the water-rat in the S. mansoni cycle would be substantiated if one could prove that these rodents acquire the parasite during their own activity time, a completely independent time schedule of human activities. To pursue this goal, we performed two field experiments in the municipality of Sumidouro, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, a schistosomiasis endemic area where N. squamipes is found naturally infected. One experiment was devised as a series of observations of activity time of the water-rat. The other experiment was a test of the occurrence of late transmission of S. mansoni to the water-rat. The daily activity pattern showed that the water-rat is active chiefly just after sunset. At both diurnal and late exposition essays the water-rat sentinels got infected by S. mansoni. These findings clarify ecological and behavioral components necessary to the adaptation of S. mansoni to the water-rat as a non human definitive host and the existence of a transmission cycle involving this animals as a reservoir.

Mesurer la stigmatisaion perçue chez les personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques : traduction française, validation et adaptation de la Stigma Scale

L'objectif de l'étude présentée est d'adapter et de valider une version française de la Stigma Scale (King, 2007) auprès d'une population de personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques. Dans une première phase, la stabilité temporelle (fidélité test-retest), la cohérence interne et la validité convergente de l'instrument original à 28 items traduit en français ont été évaluées auprès d'un échantillon de 183 patients. Les résultats d'analyses factorielles confirmatoires ne nous ont pas permis de confirmer la structure originale de l'instrument. Nous avons donc proposé, sur la base des résultats d'une analyse factorielle exploratoire, une version courte de l'échelle de stigmatisation (9 items) qui conserve la structure en trois facteurs du modèle original. Dans une deuxième phase, nous avons examiné les qualités psychométriques et validé cette version abrégée de l'échelle de stigmatisation auprès d'un second échantillon de 234 patients. Les indices d'ajustements de notre analyse factorielle confirmatoire confirme la structure en trois facteurs de la version abrégée de la Stigma Scale. Les résultats suggèrent que la version française abrégée de l'échelle de stigmatisation constitue un instrument utile, fiable et valide dans l'autoévaluation de la stigmatisation perçue par des personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques. - Aim People suffering from mental illness are exposed to stigma. However, only few tools are available to assess stigmatization as perceived from the patient's perspective. The aim of this study is to adapt and validate a French version of the Stigma Scale (King, 2007). This self-report questionnaire has a three-factor structure: discrimination, disclosure and positive aspects of mental illness. Discrimination subscale refers to perceived negative reactions by others. Disclosure subscale refers mainly to managing disclosure to avoid discrimination and finally positive aspects subscale taps into how patients are becoming more accepting, more understanding toward their illness. Method In the first step, internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability of the French adaptation of the 28-item scale have been assessed on a sample of 183 patients. Results of confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) did not confirm the hypothesized structure. In light of the failed attempts to validate the original version, an alternative 9-item short-form version of the Stigma Scale, maintaining the integrity of the original model, was developed based on results of exploratory factor analyses in the first sample and cross- validated in a new sample of 234 patients. Results Results of CFA did not confirm that the data fitted well to the three-factor model of the 28-item Stigma Scale (χ2/άί=2.02, GFI=0.77, AGFI=0.73, RMSEA=0.07, CFI=0.77 et NNFI=0.75). Cronbach's α are excellent for discrimination (0.84) and disclosure (0.83) subscales but poor for potential positive aspects (0.46). External validity is satisfactory. Overall Stigma Scale total score is negatively correlated with score on Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale (r = -0.49), and each sub-scale is significantly correlated with a visual analogue scale that refers to the specific aspect of stigma (0.43 < |r| < 0.60). Intraclass correlation coefficients between 0.68 and 0.89 indicate good test- retest reliability. Results of CFA demonstrate that the items chosen for the short version of the Stigma Scale have the expected fit properties fa2/df=1.02, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.98, RMSEA=0.01, CFI=1.0 et NNFI=1.0). Considering the small number (3 items) of items in each subscales of the short version of the Stigma Scale, a coefficients for the discrimination (0.57), disclosure (0.80) and potential positive aspects subscales (0.62) are considered as good. Conclusion Our results suggest that the 9-item French short-version of the Stigma Scale is a useful, reliable and valid self-report questionnaire to assess perceived stigmatization in people suffering from mental illness. The time of completion is really short and questions are well understood and accepted by the patients.

Oviposition activity and seasonal pattern of a population of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) in subtropical Argentina

Monthly oviposition activity and the seasonal density pattern of Aedes aegypti were studied using larvitraps and ovitraps during a research carried out by the Public Health Ministry of Salta Province, in Tartagal, Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, in subtropical Argentina. The A. aegypti population was active in both dry and wet seasons with a peak in March, accordant with the heaviest rainfall. From May to November, the immature population level remained low, but increased in December. Ae. aegypti oviposition activity increased during the fall and summer, when the relative humidity was 60% or higher. Eggs were found in large numbers of ovitraps during all seasons but few eggs were observed in each one during winter. The occurrence and the number of eggs laid were variable when both seasons and cities were compared. The reduction of the population during the winter months was related to the low in the relative humidity of the atmosphere. Significant differences were detected between oviposition occurrences in Tartagal and Aguaray and Salvador Mazza cities, but no differences in the number of eggs were observed. Two factors characterize the seasonal distribution pattern of Ae. aegypti in subtropical Argentina, the absence of a break during winter and an oviposition activity concomitant of the high relative humidity of the atmosphere.

Seasonal transmission of Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana in the state of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

In the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, localized cutaneous leishmaniasis (LCL) caused by Leishmania (Leishmania) mexicana is a typical wild zoonosis restricted to the forest, and humans are only accidentally involved. The transmission of L. (L.) mexicana has been related to the patient's occupation: "chicleros"(gum collectors) and agricultural workers. The objective of this study was to document L. (L.) mexicana seasonally of transmission in endemic areas of LCL in the state of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The timing of incidence of LCL in humans during 1993-1994, as well as the rate and time of infection in rodents and sand flies between February 1993 and March 1995 were analyzed. Rodents and sand flies were found infected between November and March, when men carried out their field activities and are exposed. Based on results analyzed, it is concluded that L. (L.) mexicana in the endemic area of LCL in the state of Campeche, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, presents a seasonal transmission restricted to the months of November to March. The knowledge of the timing of the transmission cycle in an endemic area of leishmaniasis is very important because intervention measures on the high-risk focus and population might be restricted.

Prismatic adaptation changes visuospatial representation in the inferior parietal lobule.

Prismatic adaptation has been shown to induce a realignment of visuoproprioceptive representations and to involve parietocerebellar networks. We have investigated in humans how far other types of functions known to involve the parietal cortex are influenced by a brief exposure to prismatic adaptation. Normal subjects underwent an fMRI evaluation before and after a brief session of prismatic adaptation using rightward deviating prisms for one group or after an equivalent session using plain glasses for the other group. Activation patterns to three tasks were analyzed: (1) visual detection; (2) visuospatial short-term memory; and (3) verbal short-term memory. The prismatic adaptation-related changes were found bilaterally in the inferior parietal lobule when prisms, but not plain glasses, were used. This effect was driven by selective changes during the visual detection task: an increase in neural activity was induced on the left and a decrease on the right parietal side after prismatic adaptation. Comparison of activation patterns after prismatic adaptation on the visual detection task demonstrated a significant increase of the ipsilateral field representation in the left inferior parietal lobule and a significant decrease in the right inferior parietal lobule. In conclusion, a brief exposure to prismatic adaptation modulates differently left and right parietal activation during visual detection but not during short-term memory. Furthermore, the visuospatial representation within the inferior parietal lobule changes, with a decrease of the ipsilateral hemifield representation on the right and increase on the left side, suggesting thus a left hemispheric dominance.

PHA urges parents to get 'at risk' children vaccinated against seasonal flu

The Public Health Agency is urging Northern Ireland parents to make sure children in 'at risk' groups get their flu vaccine early.The message has been issued to parents and carers of children as the PHA's seasonal flu vaccination programme gets underway for 2011/12.It is very important that children with any condition that puts them more at risk of the complications of flu get the vaccine.These 'at risk' conditions include:chronic lung conditions such as asthma;chest infections that have required hospital admission;chronic heart conditions;chronic liver disease;chronic kidney disease;diabetes;lowered immunity due to disease or treatment such as steroids or cancer therapy;chronic neurological conditions such as stroke, multiple sclerosis or a condition that affects the nervous system, such as cerebral palsy;hereditary and degenerative diseases of the central nervous system or muscles.Children who attend special schools for severe learning or physical disabilities are considered to be particularly at risk, as well as those with other complex health needs.The PHA has written to principals of local special schools, as well as parents of children at these schools, to raise awareness of the importance of getting vaccinated early.Dr Richard Smithson, PHA Flu Vaccination Lead, said: "For many people, flu is a short, unpleasant illness, but it does not usually cause any serious problems. However, for others, it can have very serious complications including, in rare cases, being fatal."We have been particularly reminded over the last two winters that children with chronic neurological problems and other complex health needs are very vulnerable to these complications. We have seen children become very seriously ill and, tragically, there have even been a few deaths in children who attend special schools."For this reason, we recommend that all children who attend special schools for severe learning disability, and special schools for physical disability, are offered the flu vaccine early in the autumn, before the flu viruses start circulating."The vaccine is now available from GP surgeries and the PHA recommends that parents check arrangements with their own GP's surgery so that their child can get the jab.The earlier you get vaccinated the better, as it takes the body about 10-14 days after the jab to develop antibodies. These will then protect you against the same or similar viruses if the body is exposed to them. The vaccine contains three strains of the flu virus, which are considered the most likely to be circulating this winter, including the H1N1 (swine flu) virus."Your child needs to get the flu jab every year - the protection it gives only lasts for one winter, so even if they got it last year, they still need to get it this year," added Dr Smithson."Also, if your child has been diagnosed with flu or swine flu in the past couple of years, they will still need the jab this year as there are different types of flu that the jab will protect against. Getting the flu jab is the best way to protect your child against flu and we would strongly recommend that you arrange for them to have it."Although the vaccine gives good protection, no vaccine gives total protection, so if your child develops flu-like symptoms (such as fever, cough, aches and pains, and sore throat) you should contact your GP for advice. If your child has any of these symptoms, they should be kept at home until they feel better."For more information on seasonal flu, go to www.fluawareni.info and follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

Seasonal pattern of abundance of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in Buenos Aires city, Argentina

In Buenos Aires, the most crowded city of Argentina, there is a potential risk of dengue virus transmission by the mosquito Aedes aegypti during late summer. The temporal patterns of oviposition activity and abundance of breeding sites of this vector were studied in two cemeteries of the city. Between September 1998 and August 1999, we examined 142 ovitraps weekly and a total of 18,010 water-filled containers. Both study areas showed remarkable differences in the percentages of positive ovitraps (19% vs 8%) and breeding sites (18% vs 1%), but similar temporal abundance patterns. The percentage of breeding sites was higher in summer and autumn than in spring and winter, and the percentage of positive ovitraps was higher in summer than in the other three seasons. Immatures were recorded from the first week of October to the second week of July, and oviposition activity from the third week of October until the end of April. In both cemeteries and with both methodologies the highest infestation levels were registered in March (ovitraps: 41.8% and 20.6%, breeding sites: 39.2% and 3.4%). These highest abundances took place after several months with mean temperatures above 20ºC and accumulated rainfalls above 150 mm. A sharp decline in oviposition activity was observed when monthly mean temperature decreased to 16.5ºC, and no eggs were found below 14.8ºC. Seasonal fluctuation of Ae. aegypti abundances in mid-latitudes like Buenos Aires would allow reduction of the egg mosquito population through the elimination of containers during the coldest months, which are free of adults.

Gortin Community Seasonal Eating

Gortin Community Seasonal Eating is based within Owenkillew Development Company in the rural village of Gortin. They are establishing a community garden which will help to develop sustainable living through encouraging growing their own food, developing healthy options which are available locally and educating both providers and consumers in healthy food options. Their aims are to improve access to and availability of healthy food options through community growing and harvesting of fruit and vegetables and eating locally produced and procured ingredients. They will educate parents through targeting both the children and parents of local schools and play/toddler groups. They will use community networking of social media such as facebook, twitter and community newspaper to promote messages and events etc. They will promote awareness of healthy eating and will aim to challenge public policy on food poverty at regional and national levels. Part of theCFI Programme 2013-2015 Initiative Type Community Food Growing Projects Location Tyrone Partner Agencies safefood