An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Desenvolvimento da vegetação e morfologia da foz do Amazonas-PA e rio Doce-ES durante o Quaternário tardio

Este trabalho compara as mudanças morfológicas e vegetacionais ocorridas ao longo da zona costeira da Ilha de Marajó, litoral amazônico, e da planície costeira do Rio Doce, sudeste do Brasil, durante o Holoceno e Pleistoceno tardio/Holoceno, respectivamente, com foco especificamente sobre a resposta dos manguezais para as flutuações do nível do mar e mudanças climáticas, já identificadas em vários estudos ao longo da costa brasileira. Esta abordagem integra datações por radiocarbono, descrição de características sedimentares, dados de pólen, e indicadores geoquímicos orgânicos (δ¹³C, δ¹â‚µN e C/N). Na planície costeira do Rio Doce entre ~47.500 e 29.400 anos cal AP, um sistema deltaico foi desenvolvido em resposta principalmente à diminuição do nível do mar. O aumento do nível do mar pós-glacial causou uma incursão marinha com invasão da zona costeira, favorecendo a evolução de um sistema estuarino/lagunar com planícies lamosas ocupadas por manguezais entre pelo menos ~7400 e ~5100 anos cal AP. Considerando a Ilha de Marajó durante o Holoceno inicial e médio (entre ~7500 e ~3200 anos cal AP) a área de manguezal aumentou nas planícies de maré lamosas com acúmulo de matéria orgânica estuarina/marinha. Provavelmente, isso foi resultado da incursão marinha causada pela elevação do nível do mar pós-glacial associada a uma subsidência tectônica da região. As condições de seca na região amazônica durante o Holoceneo inicial e médio provocou um aumento da salinidade no estuário, que contribuiu para a expansão do manguezal. Portanto, o efeito de subida do nível relativo do mar foi determinante para o estabelecimento dos manguezais na sua atual posição nas regiões norte e sudeste do Brasil. Entretanto, durante o Holoceno tardio (~3050-1880 anos cal AP) os manguezais em ambas as regiões retrairam para pequenas áreas, com algumas delas substituídas por vegetação de água doce. Isso foi causado pelo aumento da vazão dos rios associada a um período mais úmido registrado na região amazônica, enquanto que na planície costeira do Rio Doce, os manguezais encolheram em resposta a um aumento da entrada de sedimento fluvial associado a uma queda no nível relativo do mar.

Coastline changes and sedimentation related with the opening of an artificial channel: The Valo Grande Delta, SE Brazil

The role played by human activity in coastline changes indicates a general tendency of retreating coasts, especially deltaic environments, as a result of the recent trend of sea level rise as well as the blockage of the transfer of sediments towards the coast, especially due to the construction of dams. This is particularly important in deltaic environments which are suffering a dramatic loss of area in the last decades. In contrast, in this paper, we report the origin and evolution of an anthropogenic delta, the Valo Grande delta, on the south-eastern Brazilian coast, whose origin is related to the opening of an artificial channel and the diversion of the main flow of the Ribeira de Iguape River. The methodology included the analysis of coastline changes, bathymetry and coring, which was used to determine the sedimentation rates and grain-size changes over time. The results allowed us to recognize the different facies of the anthropogenic delta and to establish its lateral and vertical depositional trends. Despite not being very frequent, anthropogenic deltas represent a favorable environment for the record of natural and anthropogenic changes in historical times and, thus, deserve more attention from researchers of different subjects

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

Studio dei movimenti verticali del suolo in Europa occidentale da dati gps

La tecnica di posizionamento GPS costituisce oggi un importante strumento per lo studio di diversi processi tettonici e geodinamici a diverse scale spaziali. E’ possibile infatti usare dati GPS per studiare sia i movimenti delle placche tettoniche a scala globale, sia i lenti movimenti relativi attraverso singole faglie. I campi di applicazione del GPS sono aumentati considerevolmente negli ultimi anni grazie all’incremento del numero di stazioni distribuite sulla Terra e al perfezionamento delle procedure di misura ed elaborazione dati. Tuttavia mentre le velocità di spostamento orizzontali sono da tempo largamente studiate, quelle verticali non lo sono altrettanto perché richiedono il raggiungimento di precisioni sub millimetriche e risultano inoltre affette da numerose fonti di errore. Lo scopo di questo lavoro è quello di ricavare i tassi di deformazione verticale della litosfera in Europa Occidentale a partire dalle misure di fase GPS, passando per l’analisi delle serie temporali, e di correggere tali velocità per il contributo dell’aggiustamento glacio-isostatico (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment, GIA), modellato utilizzando il software SELEN (SEa Level EquatioN solver). Quello che si ottiene è un campo di velocità depurato dal contributo del GIA e rappresentante una stima dei tassi di deformazione verticale relativi all’area in esame associati a processi deformativi diversi dal GIA.

Sea level measurement using single GNSS antenna SNR signals

This thesis presents a possible method to calculate sea level variation using geodetic-quality Global Navigate Satellite System (GNSS) receivers. Three antennas are used: two small antennas and a choke ring one, analyzing only Global Positioning System signals. The main goal of the thesis is to test a modified configuration for antenna set up. In particular, measurements obtained tilting one antenna to face the horizon are compared to measurements obtained from antennas looking upward. The location of the experiment is a coastal environment nearby the Onsala Space Observatory in Sweden. Sea level variations are obtained using periodogram analysis of the SNR signal and compared to synthetic gauge generated from two independent tide gauges. The choke ring antenna provides poor result, with an RMS around 6 cm and a correlation coefficients of 0.89. The smaller antennas provide correlation coefficients around 0.93. The antenna pointing upward present an RMS of 4.3 cm and the one pointing the horizon an RMS of 6.7 cm. Notable variation in the statistical parameters is found when modifying the length of the interval analyzed. In particular, doubts are risen on the reliability of certain scattered data. No relation is found between the accuracy of the method and weather conditions. Possible methods to enhance the available data are investigated, and correlation coefficient above 0.97 can be obtained with small antennas when sacrificing data points. Hence, the results provide evidence of the suitability of SNR signal analysis for sea level variation in coastal environment even in the case of adverse weather conditions. In particular, tilted configurations provides comparable result with upward looking geodetic antennas. A SNR signal simulator is also tested to investigate its performance and usability. Various configuration are analyzed in combination with the periodogram procedure used to calculate the height of reflectors. Consistency between the data calculated and those received is found, and the overall accuracy of the height calculation program is found to be around 5 mm for input height below 5 m. The procedure is thus found to be suitable to analyze the data provided by the GNSS antennas at Onsala.

A Web GIS Decision Support System For Coastal Risk Assessment and Mitigation Planning

Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas around the world, billions of dollars in damage to property and infrastructure, and threatens the lives of millions of people. Therefore, disaster management and risk assessment aims at detecting vulnerability and capacities in order to reduce coastal flood disaster risk. In particular, non-specialized researchers, emergency management personnel, and land use planners require an accurate, inexpensive method to determine and map risk associated with storm surge events and long-term sea level rise associated with climate change. This study contributes to the spatially evaluation and mapping of social-economic-environmental vulnerability and risk at sub-national scale through the development of appropriate tools and methods successfully embedded in a Web-GIS Decision Support System. A new set of raster-based models were studied and developed in order to be easily implemented in the Web-GIS framework with the purpose to quickly assess and map flood hazards characteristics, damage and vulnerability in a Multi-criteria approach. The Web-GIS DSS is developed recurring to open source software and programming language and its main peculiarity is to be available and usable by coastal managers and land use planners without requiring high scientific background in hydraulic engineering. The effectiveness of the system in the coastal risk assessment is evaluated trough its application to a real case study.

Analysis of the relationships between Spartina maritima and nutrient enrichment in North Adriatic salt marshes

Salt marshes are coastal ecosystem in the upper intertidal zone between internal water and sea and are widely spread throughout Italy, from Friuli Venezia Giulia, in the North, to Sicily, in the South. These delicate environments are threatened by eutrophication, habitat conversion (for land reclaiming or agriculture) and climate change impacts such as sea level rise. The objectives of my thesis were to: 1) analyse the distribution and biomass of the perennial native cordgrass Spartina maritima (one of the most relevant foundation species in the low intertidal saltmarsh vegetation in the study region) at 7 sites along the Northern Adriatic coast and relate it to critical environmental parameters and 2) to carry out a nutrient manipulation experiment to detect nutrient enrichment effects on S. maritima biomass and vegetation characteristics. The survey showed significant differences among sites in biological response variables - i.e., live belowground, live aboveground biomass, above:belowground (R:S) biomass ratio, % cover, average height and stem density – which were mainly related to differences in nitrate, nitrite and phosphate contents in surface water. Preliminary results from the experiment (which is still ongoing) showed so far no significant effects of nutrient enrichment on live aboveground and belowground biomass, R:S ratio, leaf %Carbon, average height, stem density and random shoot height; however, a significantly higher (P=0.018) increase in leaf %Nitrogen content in treated plots indicated that nutrient uptake had occurred.

The importance of ship log data: reconstructing North Atlantic, European and Mediterranean sea level pressure fields back to 1750

Local to regional climate anomalies are to a large extent determined by the state of the atmospheric circulation. The knowledge of large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) variations in former times is therefore crucial when addressing past climate changes across Europe and the Mediterranean. However, currently available SLP reconstructions lack data from the ocean, particularly in the pre-1850 period. Here we present a new statistically-derived 5° × 5° resolved gridded seasonal SLP dataset covering the eastern North Atlantic, Europe and the Mediterranean area (40°W–50°E; 20°N–70°N) back to 1750 using terrestrial instrumental pressure series and marine wind information from ship logbooks. For the period 1750–1850, the new SLP reconstruction provides a more accurate representation of the strength of the winter westerlies as well as the location and variability of the Azores High than currently available multiproxy pressure field reconstructions. These findings strongly support the potential of ship logbooks as an important source to determine past circulation variations especially for the pre-1850 period. This new dataset can be further used for dynamical studies relating large-scale atmospheric circulation to temperature and precipitation variability over the Mediterranean and Eurasia, for the comparison with outputs from GCMs as well as for detection and attribution studies.

Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.