What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

Gathering for God : George Brown in Oceania

Combining 'the gathering of artefacts with the gathering of souls', George Brown was a key figure in the Christian, and especially the Wesleyan Methodist, history of nineteenth-century Oceania. Using his life as a case study, Helen Bethea Gardner examines the role of Christian missionaries in the Pacific Islands. Brown's career (1860-1908) spanned one of the most tumultuous political periods in the South Pacific, as one by one islands were colonised by imperial nations. He was one of the most politically engaged of all missionaries, encouraging colonial rule in the Pacific by America, Britain, Germany and, eventually, Australia and New Zealand. Originally from the north of England, he worked as a missionary in Samoa from 1860, moving to the Bismarck Archipelago (now Papua New Guinea) in 1875. From the 1880s until his retirement in 1907, he worked in Sydney as the general secretary of the Australasian Methodist Overseas Mission. Gathering for God examines Brown's missionary letters, journals and journalism, exploring how he attracted Pacific Islanders to Christian teachings, analysing his leadership during an armed attack on New Britain villages accused of cannibalism, and looking at his work in the new discipline of anthropology. He was a major collector of artefacts (his collection is now in the Osaka Museum) and photographer of Pacific peoples (his collection is in the Australian Museum).

A warrior nation

Under Prime Minister John Howard, Australia today appears to have turned away from Asia, returning to a Western oriantation. Has racial invasion fear, once expressed in the 'White Australia' policy, been the determinant of relations with Asia? I argue, in contrast, first, that invasion fear preceded race fear and, second, that Australia was unlucky, in coming to nationhood during the eras of Social Darwinism and New Imperialism, scaling ideas of race citizenship into its national formation. It was unlucky to associate national 'manhood' with Gallipoli and war, making the national tradition expeditionary nationalism, or ANZAC. War is central in national memory and public patriotism, primarily because war has been carried out overseas rather than through fighting on Australian soil, and the devastation of Australian cities. Even after the retreat of Western empires in Asia, and of racial ideology, why has this romantic and foolish view of war as an expression of the nation persisted? Paradoxically, Australians romanticise war even though, after 1788, there has been no other invasion of a continent which is harder to invade than it is to defend.

The dying town syndrome : a survey of urban development in the Western District of Victoria,1890-1930

The experience of urban settlement in the Western District of Victoria suggests that the pattern of growth and decline in small towns is tied to the pattern of land use. This, in turn, is determined by the economic and technological factors which influence farm management and practices. At times, these factors have encouraged urban development and small towns have flourished. For the most part, however, these forces have not been conducive to sustaining long-term growth and prosperity and small towns, have been trapped in a cycle of growth and decline.

Merely the man in the street: community consultation in the planning of 1920s Melbourne

It is an accepted tenet of planning history that Australia's planning practice in the first half of the 20th century was dominated by experts delivering a package of international planning ideas. Is this story made more    complicated, however by the attitudes of the lay Australian to urban planning at this time? What role have the approaches of planners and planning  bodies played in advising the public of the best routes to take  towards comprehensive and appropriate planning? This paper discusses these  issues with use of examples of the general public's letters to  Melboume's Metropolitan Town Planning Commission (MTPC)( 1923-30) about planning issues in Melbourne; the MTPC's responses; and responsive propaganda generated by prominent Melbourne planner Saxil Tuxen (1885-1975).

Defining the Australian mechanical engineer

The attribute focus in engineering education now adopted by the engineering education accrediting bodies of the US, UK and Australia is based on meeting the assumed needs of professional practice. It is associated with an increasing expectation by employers of work-ready graduates rather than relying on subsequent work-based learning and experience to develop many of the essential professional practice attributes. Yet the scope of the mechanical engineering profession is broad and views of practitioners contributing to debate on attribute requirements are largely influenced by their own often unique professional formation.

In addition, the formative development of the profession in Australia has been significantly influenced by 19th and 20th century UK and US practices, although historically the industrial profile of Australia has been strikingly different. An analysis of current industry distribution of Australian, UK and US mechanical engineers presented in this paper shows continuing, although less marked, differences.

To develop a clearer perception of the profession in Australia, its educational formation, and operational environment, this paper provides a concise study of the formative development of the profession, and presents a breakdown of the industry sectors in which they are currently employed. The effects of momentous global changes in engineering employment and formation over recent decades are also discussed.

Recent changes in engineering employment have included major structural changes to organisations, accelerating technical and educational developments and mounting societal expectations making it imperative that attributes be attuned to the new engineering paradigm as increasing demands are placed on our graduates.

This paper provides an essential foundation for ongoing debate and analysis of attribute needs related to this broadly based engineering discipline. Although presented from an Australian perspective, many issues discussed are applicable worldwide.

Rhetorical theory of public relations: opening the door to semiotic and pragmatism approaches

The 2001 Handbook of Public Relations edited by Robert Heath contains a prominent article advocating the use of rhetorical theory or ‘rhetorical enactment rational’ as a fruitful way of advancing theoretical understandings of public relations. In 2004 Heath and Dan Millar edited: Responding to Crisis: A Rhetorical Approach to Crisis Communication. These are the latest excursions into a perspective on public relations reflecting the extensive study of rhetoric in North America. Other examples are Public Relations Inquiry as Rhetorical Criticism (Elwood, 1995); Rhetorical and Critical Approaches to Public Relations (Toth and Heath, 1992); and a chapter Public Relations? No, Relations with Publics: A Rhetorical-Organisational Approach to Contemporary Corporate Communication (Cheney and Dionisopoulos, in Botan and Hazleton (Eds.) 1989).

The conventional notion of rhetoric is argumentation and persuasion stemming from the ancient Greek sophists, such as Aristotle, and from the Romans, particularly Cicero and Quintillion. Rhetoric became a fundamental plank of the trivium of ancient and medieval education: grammar, logic and rhetoric. Then in the 20th century Kenneth Burke, Stephen Toulmin and Chaim Perelman with Lucie Olbrechts-Tyteca extended Aristotle’s suggestion that: “Rhetoric is the counterpart of dialectic” Aristotle (trans. 1991). To use the rhetorical approach to argue that rational discourse cannot describe the world on its own. Instead living, enculturated human beings have to perceive ‘their’ truths. They take a perceptual ‘position’ on reason.

Public relations, is an industry for influencing perceptual ‘positions’. But the study of perception and attempts to influence perception cannot be claimed by rhetorical scholars alone. Semioticians and linguists who take the perspective of linguistic pragmatics also claim this field. This paper takes the example of ‘public relations’ as a focus for the confluence of rhetorical, semiotic and pragmatism approaches to the ‘problematic’ of understanding and truth.

John Howard, Australian conservative

John Howard was the first elected Australian prime minister to identify himself as a conservative; he claimed to be a liberal in economic policy and a conservative in social policy.

Bob Brown: ecology, economy, equality and eternity

"Against a backdrop of advancing neoliberalism and globalisation, this timely book examines nine prominent Australians from diverse backgrounds - ʻglobal citizensʾ who have each enhanced public life through promoting universal values and human rights. The book charts over 50 years of campaigning, and espouses perennial causes such as peace, social justice, ecological sustainability and gender and racial equality. Ultimately, this inspiring volume sends a message of hope for Australian society and provides a benchmark for all proponents of change."--Publisher description.

Lost in translation? William Wardell's St John's College, Sydney and Convent and School, Kew

This paper considers two Colleges designed by the nineteenth century architect William Wardell (1823-99): St John’s College, within the University of Sydney (1858-59) and Convent and School, Kew, now known as Genazzano FCJ College Kew, Melbourne (1889). The approach of significant anniversaries for each of the Colleges has been the major impetus behind the current research. Both commissions demonstrate laudable aspirations; difficulty in comprehending and realising the design; partial completions and accretions over time which testify to changes in economic fortune and taste; inappropriate additions; and decades of neglect fuelled by a general misunderstanding of the 19th century for much of the 20th century. At the beginning of the 21st century conservation management plans were commissioned independently for both projects. Using the two Colleges as case studies, this paper examines tradition and its transformation, design and its translation, heritage and its significance.