Finnish Short-Term Stock Returns

Functioning capital markets are a crucial part of a competitive economy since they provide the mechanisms to allocate resources. In order to be well functioning a capital market has to be efficient. Market efficiency is defined as a market where prices at any time fully reflect all available information. Basically, this means that abnormal returns cannot be predicted since they are dependent on future, presently unknown, information. The debate of market efficiency has been going on for several decades. Most academics today would probably agree that financial markets are reasonably efficient since virtually nobody has been able to achieve continuous abnormal positive returns. However, it is clear that a set of return anomalies exists, although they are apparently to small to enable substantial economic profit. Moreover, these anomalies can often be attributed to market design. The motivation for this work is to expand the knowledge of short-term trading patterns and to offer some explanations for these patterns. In the first essay the return pattern during the day is examined. On average stock prices move during two time periods of the day, namely, immediately after the opening and around the formal close of the market. Since stock prices, on average, move upwards these abnormal returns are generally positive and cause the distinct U-shape of intraday returns. In the second essay the results in the first essay are examined further. The return pattern around the former close is shown to partly be the result of manipulative action by market participants. In the third essay the focus is shifted towards trading patterns of the underlying stocks on days when index options and index futures on the stocks expire. Generally no expiration day effect was found. However, some indication of an expiration day effect was found when a large amount of open in- or at-the-money contracts existed. Also, the effects were likelier to be found for shares with high index-weight but fairly low trading volume. Last, in the forth essay the attention is turned to the behaviour of different tax clienteles around the dividend ex-day. Two groups of investors showed abnormal trading behaviour. Domestic non-financial investors, especially domestic companies, showed a dividend capturing behaviour, i.e. buying cum-dividend and selling ex-dividend shares. The opposite behaviour was found for foreign investors and domestic financial institutions. The effect was more notable for high yield, high volume stocks.

Short-term Price Behavior and the Effect of Foreign Investors in Finnish Equity Markets (summary section only)

As globalization and capital free movement has increased, so has interest in the effects of that global money flow, especially during financial crises. The concern has been that large global money flows will affect the pricing of small local markets by causing, in particular, overreaction. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the body of work concerning short-term under- and overreaction and the short-term effects of foreign investment flow in the small Finnish equity markets. This thesis also compares foreign execution return to domestic execution return. This study’s results indicate that short-term under- and overreaction occurs in domestic-buy portfolios (domestic net buying) rather than in foreign-buy portfolios. This under- and overreaction, however, is not economically meaningful after controlling for the bid-ask bounce effect. Based on this finding, one can conclude that foreign investors do not have a destabilizing effect in the short-term in the Finnish markets. Foreign activity affects short-term returns. When foreign investors are net buyers (sellers) there are positive (negative) market adjusted returns. Literature related to nationality and institutional effect leads us to expect these kind of results. These foreign flows are persistent at a 5 % to 21 % level and the persistence of foreign buy flow is higher than the foreign sell flow. Foreign daily trading execution is worse than domestic execution. Literature which quantifies foreign investors as liquidity demanders and literature related to front-running leads us to expect poorer foreign execution than domestic execution.

An Empirical Investigation of Value-at-Risk in Long and Short Trading Positions

This paper uses the Value-at-Risk approach to define the risk in both long and short trading positions. The investigation is done on some major market indices(Japanese, UK, German and US). The performance of models that takes into account skewness and fat-tails are compared to symmetric models in relation to both the specific model for estimating the variance, and the distribution of the variance estimate used as input in the VaR estimation. The results indicate that more flexible models not necessarily perform better in predicting the VaR forecast; the reason for this is most probably the complexity of these models. A general result is that different methods for estimating the variance are needed for different confidence levels of the VaR, and for the different indices. Also, different models are to be used for the left respectively the right tail of the distribution.

Short-Horizon Asymmetric Mean-Reversion and Overreactions: Evidence from the Nordic Stock Markets

This paper examines the asymmetric behavior of conditional mean and variance. Short-horizon mean-reversion behavior in mean is modeled with an asymmetric nonlinear autoregressive model, and the variance is modeled with an Exponential GARCH in Mean model. The results of the empirical investigation of the Nordic stock markets indicates that negative returns revert faster to positive returns when positive returns generally persist longer. Asymmetry in both mean and variance can be seen on all included markets and are fairly similar. Volatility rises following negative returns more than following positive returns which is an indication of overreactions. Negative returns lead to increased variance and positive returns leads even to decreased variance.

Owners' Way or the Highway: Short-term Expectations and Owner Impatience

Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

Effect of insertion of buffer-strip on the response of carbon-epoxy system in short beam tests

dThe work looks at the response to three-point loading of carbon-epoxy (CF-EP) composites with inserted buffer strip (BS) material. Short beam Shear tests were performed to study the load-deflection response as well as fracture features through macroscopy on the CF-EP system containing the interleaved PTFE-coated fabric material. Significant differences were noticed in the response of the CF-EP system to the bending process consequent to the architectural modification. It was inferred that introduction of small amounts of less adherent layers of material at specific locations causes a decrement in the load carrying capability. Further the number and the ease with which interface separation occurs is found to depend on the extent to which the inserted layer is present in either single or multiple layer positions.

Analysis of short interproton distances in proline peptides as a guide in the interpretation of nuclear overhauser effects

The conformational dependence of interproton distances in model proline peptides has been investigated in order to facilitate interpretation of the results of Nuclear Overhauser Effect (NOE) studies on such peptides. For this purpose two model systems, namely, Ac-Pro-NHMe and Ac-Pro-X-NHMe have been chosen and used. In the former, short interproton distances detectable in NOE experiments permit a clear distinction between conformations with Pro ψ = -300 (helical region) and those in which ψ is around 1200 (polyproline region). For the latter, the variation of distances between the protons of methyl amide and the Pro ring have been studied by superimposing on the Ramachandran map in the (φ3, ψ3) plane. The results show that β-turns and non-β-turn conformations can be readily distinguished from NOE data and such long range NOEs should be detectable for specific non-β-turn conformations. NOEs involving Cβ and Cγ protons are particularly sensitive to the state of pyrrolidine ring puckering.

Enantiodiscrimination and extraction of short and long range homo- and hetero-nuclear residual dipolar couplings by a spin selective correlation experiment

A two dimensional correlation experiment for the measurement of short and long range homo- and hetero- nuclear residual dipolar couplings (RDCs) from the broad and featureless proton NMR spectra including C-13 satellites is proposed. The method employs a single natural abundant C-13 spin as a spy nucleus to probe all the coupled protons and permits the determination of RDCs of negligible strengths. The technique has been demonstrated for the study of organic chiral molecules aligned in chiral liquid crystal, where additional challenge is to unravel the overlapped spectrum of enantiomers. The significant advantage of the method is demonstrated in better chiral discrimination using homonuclear RDCs as additional parameters. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The short range interactions between two rare gas atoms

The short range interactions in He2, Ne2 and Ar2 have been studied in terms of the electronic forces as functions of their internuclear separations employing their single configuration SCF wave functions. The results show that the constituent molecular orbitals behave differently in terms of the forces they exert on the nuclei during the interaction process. The different behaviour of the orbitals is also reflected in the redistribution of charges.

Processing and fiber content effects on the machinability of compression moulded random direction short GFRP composites

The random direction short Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP) have been prepared by two compression moulding processes, namely the Preform and Sheet Moulding Compound (SMC) processes. Cutting force analysis and surface characterization are conducted on the random direction short GFRPs with varying fiber contents (25 similar to 40%). Edge trimming experiments are preformed using carbide inserts with varing the depth of cut and cutting speed. Machining characteristics of the Preform and SMC processed random direction short GFRPs are evaluated in terms of cutting forces, surface quality, and tool wear. It is found that composite primary processing and fiber contents are major contributing factors influencing the cutting force magnitudes and surface textures. The SMC composites show better surface finish over the Preform composites due to less delamination and fiber pullouts. Moreover, matrix damage and fiber protrusions at the machined edge are reduced by increasing fiber content in the random direction short GFRP composites.

Electrical switching and short-range order in As-Te glasses

The local structural order in chalcogenide network glasses is known to change markedly at two critical compositions, namely, the percolation and chemical thresholds. In the AsxTe100-x glassy system, both the thresholds coincide at the composition x = 40 (40 at. % of arsenic). It is demonstrated that the electrical switching fields of As-Te glasses exhibit a distinct change at this composition.