An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the British Virgin Islands

Owing to their high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, Caribbean islands have legitimate concerns about their future, based on observational records, experience with current patterns and consequences of climate variability, and climate model projections. Although emitting less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, islands from the region have already perceived a need to reallocate scarce resources away from economic development and poverty reduction, and towards the implementation of strategies to adapt to the growing threats posed by global warming (Nurse and Moore, 2005). The objectives of this Report are to conduct economic analyses of the projected impacts of climate change to 2050, within the context of the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios, on the coastal and marine resources of the British Virgin Islands (BVI). The Report presents a valuation of coastal and marine services; quantitative and qualitative estimates of climate change impacts on the coastal zone; and recommendations of possible adaptation strategies and costs and benefits of adaptation. A multi-pronged approach is employed in valuing the marine and coastal sector. Direct use and indirect use values are estimated. The amount of economic activity an ecosystem service generates in the local economy underpins estimation of direct use values. Tourism and fisheries are valued using the framework developed by the World Resources Institute. Biodiversity is valued in terms of the ecological functions it provides, such as climate regulation, shoreline protection, water supply erosion control and sediment retention, and biological control, among others. Estimates of future losses to the coastal zone from climate change are determined by considering: (1) the effect of sea level rise on coastal lands; and (2) the effect of a rise in sea surface temperature (SST) on coastal waters. Discount rates of 1%, 2% and 4% are employed to analyse all loss estimates in present value terms. The overall value for the coastal and marine sector is USD $1,606 million (mn). This is almost 2% larger than BVI’s 2008 GDP. Tourism and recreation comprise almost two-thirds of the value of the sector. By 2100, the effects of climate change on coastal lands are projected to be $3,988.6 mn, and $2,832.9 mn under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. In present value terms, if A2 occurs, losses range from $108.1-$1,596.8 mn and if B2 occurs, losses range from $74.1-$1,094.1 mn, depending on the discount rate used. Estimated costs of a rise in SST in 2050 indicate that they vary between $1,178.0 and $1,884.8 mn. Assuming a discount rate of 4%, losses range from $226.6 mn for the B2 scenario to $363.0 mn for the A2 scenario. If a discount rate of 1% is assumed, estimated losses are much greater, ranging from $775.6-$1,241.0 mn. Factoring in projected climate change impacts, the net value of the coastal and marine sector suggests that the costs of climate change significantly reduce the value of the sector, particularly under the A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for discount rates of 1% and 2%. In contrast, the sector has a large, positive, though declining trajectory, for all years when a 4% discount rate is employed. Since the BVI emits minimal greenhouse gases, but will be greatly affected by climate change, the report focuses on adaptation as opposed to mitigation strategies. The options shortlisted are: (1) enhancing monitoring of all coastal waters to provide early warning alerts of bleaching and other marine events; (2) introducing artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices; (3) introducing alternative tourist attractions; (4) providing retraining for displaced tourism workers; and (5) revising policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities. All adaptation options considered are quite justifiable in national terms; each had benefit-cost ratios greater than 1.

Análise faciológica e estratigráfica da planície costeira de Soure (margem leste da ilha de Marajó-PA), no trecho compreendido entre o canal do Cajuúna e o estuário Paracauari

A planície costeira de Soure, na margem leste da ilha de Marajó (Pará), é constituída por áreas de acumulação lamosa e arenosa, de baixo gradiente, sujeitas a processos gerados por marés e ondas. Suas feições morfológicas são caracterizadas por planícies de maré, estuários, canais de maré e praias-barreiras. A análise faciológica e estratigráfica de seis testemunhos a vibração, com profundidade média de 4 m, e de afloramentos de campo permitiu a caracterização dos ambientes deposicionais, sua sucessão temporal e sua correlação lateral, a elaboração de seções estratigráficas e a definição de uma coluna estratigráfica. Foram identificadas cinco associações de facies: (1) facies de planície de maré, (2) facies de manguezal, (3) facies de barra de canal de maré, (4) facies de praia e (5) facies de duna. A história sedimentar da planície costeira de Soure é representada por duas sucessões estratigráficas: (1) a sucessão progradacional, constituída pelas associações de facies de planície de maré, manguezal e barra de canal de maré; e (2) a sucessão retrogradacional, formada pelas associações de facies de praia e de duna. Essas sucessões retratam uma fase de expansão das planícies de maré e manguezais, com progradação da linha de costa (Holoceno médio a superior), e uma posterior fase de retrogradação, com migração dos ambientes de praias e dunas sobre depósitos lamosos de manguezal e planície de maré, no Holoceno atual. A história deposicional da planície costeira de Soure é condizente com o modelo de evolução holocênica das planícies costeiras do nordeste paraense.

Avaliação de áreas deposicionais e erosivas em cabos lamosos da zona costeira Amazônica através da análise multitemporal de imagens de sensores remotos

Os cabos lamosos Cassiporé e Orange no norte do Brasil constituem um ambiente dinâmico influenciado pelo rio Amazonas, onde as modificações na linha de costa estão sujeitas a severos processos de progradação e erosão. Imagens de sensores remotos ópticos e microondas foram coletadas de 1980 a 2003 e analisadas em um Sistema de Informação Geográfica (SIG), permitindo a identificação e quantificação da distribuição espacial das áreas de progradação e retrogradação ao longo da linha de costa. Durante este período, as maiores taxas de erosão ocorreram junto ao cabo Cassiporé, com recuo médio de 27,5 metros de distância linear e erosão de 1,37 km² de área de manguezal por ano. Por outro lado, os maiores índices de deposição de sedimentos ocorreram no cabo Orange, onde a planície costeira progradou 24,6 m ao ano, agregando 55,85 km² de manguezal à linha de costa nos últimos vinte e três anos. Os mecanismos de progradação determinaram um acréscimo na vegetação de manguezal de 50,8% ao longo das três últimas décadas. Um balanço sedimentar realizado na área pesquisada demonstrou que predominam os processos construtivos (61,3%) sob os processos erosivos (38,7%).

Composição e variabilidade espaço-temporal da meiofauna de uma praia arenosa na região amazônica (Ajuruteua, Pará)

Este trabalho avalia a variabilidade espaço-temporal da meiofauna do médiolitoral na praia de Ajuruteua, Estado do Pará. As coletas foram realizadas a cada dois meses, entre abril de 2003 a fevereiro de 2004 durante as marés de sizígia, em diferentes zonas da praia. As amostras foram retiradas com um amostrador cilíndrico de 3,14 cm² e fixadas em formalina salina a 5%. Em laboratório, as amostras foram passadas em malha de 0,063 mm de abertura e os organismos retidos identificados em nível de grandes grupos taxonômicos, contados e fixados em álcool etílico a 70%. A meiofauna esteve representada por oito grupos: Turbellaria, Nematoda, Tardigrada, Polychaeta, Oligochaeta, Acari, adultos de Copepoda Harpacticoida e juvenis de Copepoda Harpacticoida. Nematoda foi o grupo dominante, representando 74% do total de indivíduos, seguido de Copepoda (19%). Pôde-se observar clara zonação horizontal da fauna, que se distribuiu em três faixas paralelas à linha de praia, com características significativamente distintas quanto à abundância, riqueza e densidade dos principais grupos taxonômicos. No médiolitoral médio foram observados valores significativamente mais elevados de riqueza e abundância, enquanto os valores mais baixos foram registrados no médiolitoral superior e inferior. A comunidade de meiofauna, ainda que não tenha variado significativamente entre períodos climáticos, foi mais rica e abundante nos meses secos. Os principais fatores responsáveis pelas variações espaço-temporais da meiofauna foram a ação das ondas e das marés e as variações na salinidade da água

A ilusão urbanística: análise crítica sobre a (re)produção do espaço urbano no município de Ilha Bela - SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Wave refraction and longshore transport patterns along the southern Santa Catarina coast

Com base no clima de ondas para o sul da costa brasileira, a refração de ondas foi modelada para a obtenção de alturas e direção das ondas ao longo da costa sul de Santa Catarina. Essas informações permitem a estimativa da deriva litorânea potencial para a região. De acordo com a orientação da linha de costa, diferentes setores do litoral apresentam variados padrões de deriva. As estimativas foram realizadas com base nos dados médios anuais e para cada estação do ano, demonstrando assim a variabilidade dos padrões ao longo do ano. A configuração da linha de costa e os resultados das estimativas de intensidade e direção da deriva indicam o predomínio da deriva litorânea na porção sul da área e um equilíbrio entre processos de espraiamento e de deriva na porção norte. Padrões contrastantes de deriva entre a porção sul e norte da linha de costa indicam um balanço positivo de sedimentos na porção central, disponibilizando sedimentos para os processos de transporte através da costa. Considerando escalas temporais maiores, os padrões de deriva concordam com o processo de preenchimento costeiro que é controlado principalmente pelo aporte de sedimentos pela deriva litorânea.

Invasion of the Indo-Pacific blenny Omobranchus punctatus (Perciformes: Blenniidae) on the Atlantic Coast of Central and South America

Nós examinamos 308 espécimes do blenídeo Omobranchus punctatus, de origem Indo-Pacífica, depositados em coleções de quatro museus. Os dados de distribuição foram analisados com o objetivo de avaliar a invasão das águas costeiras do Oceano Atlântico nas Américas do Sul e Central. Em sua área de distribuição original, O. punctatus ocorre em ambientes marinhos e estuarinos. Amostragens datadas de 1930 e de 2004 produziram 20 registros da espécie no Atlântico Oeste tropical, incluindo amostras do Panamá, Colômbia, Venezuela, Trinidade e Brasil. Neste trabalho nós apresentamos 17 novos registros em áreas da Venezuela e nordeste do Brasil. O padrão temporal dos dados (1930-2009) e a proximidade da maioria das áreas de amostragem a regiões portuárias indicam que a espécie foi inicialmente introduzida no Atlântico pela água de lastro de navios navegando na rota India-Trinidade. No Brasil, a introdução parece estar associada ao movimento de navios em torno das plataformas de petróleo. No Maranhão e no Pará, a introdução está associada ao movimento de navios entre os portos próximos à foz do rio Amazonas. Alternativamente, a expansão de área desta espécie ao longo da costa da América pode ter acontecido através de dispersão larval, acompanhando as correntes em direção ao norte. Nós recomendamos o monitoramento desta espécie, bem como o desenvolvimento de estudos sobre sua ecologia em ambientes do Atlântico ocidental agora ocupados por ela.

Paleoambiente da Formação Prosperança, embasamento neoproterozóico da Bacia do Amazonas

Rochas de idade neoproterozóica da Formação Prosperança, cobertura sedimentar da porção sul do Escudo das Guianas, são pobremente expostas quando comparadas com o registro paleozóico das bacias do Amazonas e Solimões. A Formação Prosperança consiste em conglomerados, arenitos arcosianos e pelitos que preenchem grábens no embasamento. Esta unidade é sotoposta por rochas carbonáticas da Formação Acarí (Neoproterozóico), observada apenas em subsuperfície, que agrupadas, representam o embasamento sedimentar das bacias paleozóicas produtoras de óleo da Amazônia. A precisa caracterização e reconstrução paleoambiental da Formação Prosperança são essenciais para a distinção entre unidades do embasamento sedimentar e paleozóicas. A análise estratigráfica foi realizada na região do baixo rio Negro, Estado do Amazonas. A Formação Prosperança consiste em quatro associações de fácies que foram interpretadas como produto de um sistema flúvio-deltaico: prodelta/lacustre, frente deltaica, foreshore/shoreface e planície braided distal. Camadas tabulares de pelitos distribuídos por quilômetros sugerem uma bacia sedimentar de provável origem lacustre/mar restrito. Lobos deltaicos complexamente estruturados foram alimentados por distributários braided que migravam para SE. Arenitos gerados sob condições de fluxo oscilatório/combinado são compatíveis com depósitos de face litorânea. Arenitos com estratificação cruzada e planar estão relacionados com a migração de dunas subaquosas associadas a processos fluviais braided. Camadas lenticulares de conglomerados e arenitos com estratificação cruzada e planar, de possível idade paleozóica, sobrepõem a Formação Prosperança erosivamente. Essas camadas são produtos de um sistema fluvial braided proximal que migrava para NW, sentido inverso dos valores de paleocorrentes dos arenitos Prosperança.

Levantamento e análise de técnicas utilizadas nas operações de emergência de derramamento de óleo em ambientes costeiros e fluviais

This present paper aims to identify the main response techniques for coastal and fluvial environments and analyze impacts on the application of these techniques. The literature review allowed us to understand since the establishment of first environmental sensitivity index map, in coastal and fluvial environment, until the possible impacts generated by the application of cleanup techniques in both environments. Studies related to freshwater environment are less common compared to coastal environment. For both environments the same techniques may be employed, as well as containment and recovery, or removal of oil in the affected areas. The most serious environmental impacts generated are due to the poor choice of technique to be applied or the lack of training of the cleaning crews. In Deepwater Horizon accident, Gulf of Mexico, 2010, application of dispersants, resulted in a mixture of oil and dispersing 52 times more toxic than the oil itself. In Brazil, the technique of vegetation removal by the cleaning staff in the accident on the river Guaecá, 2004, resulted in unnecessary elimination of vegetation, increasing the volume of waste. It was concluded that the freshwater environment often suffer more impacts by applying the techniques, once is necessary to access the banks, which normally have more vegetation and organisms than shoreline of coastal environment

Soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir

Crops close to small water bodies may exhibit changes in yield if the water mass causes significant changes in the microclimate of areas near the reservoir shoreline. The scientific literature describes this effect as occurring gradually, with higher intensity in the sites near the shoreline and decreasing intensity with distance from the reservoir. Experiments with two soybean cultivars were conducted during four crop seasons to evaluate soybean yield in relation to distance from the Itaipu reservoir and determine the effect of air temperature and water availability on soybean crop yield. Fifteen experimental sites were distributed in three transects perpendicular to the Itaipu reservoir, covering an area at approximately 10 km from the shoreline. The yield gradient between the site closest to the reservoir and the sites farther away in each transect did not show a consistent trend, but varied as a function of distance, crop season, and cultivar. This finding indicates that the Itaipu reservoir does not affect the yield of soybean plants grown within approximately 10 km from the shoreline. In addition, the variation in yield among the experimental sites was not attributed to thermal conditions because the temperature was similar within transects. However, the crop water availability was responsible for higher differences in yield among the neighboring experimental sites related to water stress caused by spatial variability in rainfall, especially during the soybean reproductive period in January and February.

Ringed and bearded seal densities in the eastern Chukchi Sea, 1999–2000

Aerial surveys were conducted in 1999 and 2000 to estimate the densities of ringed (Phoca hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Survey lines were focused mainly on the coastal zone within 37 km of the shoreline, with additional lines flown 148–185 km offshore to assess how densities of seals changed as a function of distance from shore. Satellite-linked time-depth recorders were attached to ringed seals in both years to evaluate the time spent basking on the ice surface. Haulout patterns indicated that ringed seals transitioned to basking behavior in late May and early June, and that the largest proportion of seals (60–68%) was hauled out between 0830 and 1530 local solar time. Ringed seals were relatively common in nearshore fast ice and pack ice, with lower densities in offshore pack ice. The average density of ringed seals was 1.91 seals km-2 in 1999 (range 0.37– 16.32) and 1.62 seals km-2 in 2000 (range 0.42–19.4), with the highest densities of ringed seals found in coastal waters south of Kivalina and near Kotzebue Sound. The estimated abundance of ringed seals for the entire study area was similar in 1999 (252,488 seals, SE=47,204) and 2000 (208,857 seals, SE=25,502). Bearded seals were generally more common in offshore pack ice, with the exception of high bearded seal numbers observed near the shore south of Kivalina. Bearded seal densities were not adjusted for haulout behavior, and therefore, abundance was not estimated. Unadjusted average bearded seal density was 0.07 seals km-2 in 1999 (range 0.011–0.393) and 0.14 seals km-2 in 2000 (range 0.009– 0.652). Levels of primary productivity, benthic biomass, and fast ice distribution may influence the distributions of ringed and bearded seals in the Chukchi Sea. Information on movement and haulout behavior of ringed and bearded seals would be very useful for designing future surveys.

Daily morphological changes determined by high-energy events on an embayed beach: a qualitative model

This paper examines the daily morphological responses of Sununga Beach, an embayed beach located on the south-eastern Brazilian coast, to storms in the South Atlantic Ocean. The main mechanisms and timing of beach erosion and accretion, the relationship between wave height and direction, and beach volume changes are considered, to establish a qualitative model for short-term embayed beach morphological changes. The methodology consisted of daily topographic surveys during the month of May in 2001, 2002, and 2003, using an RTK-GPS (real-time kinematics global positioning system). Weather and wave model results were used to correlate hydrodynamics and beach morphology. The results indicate that the morphodynamics of Sununga Beach are characterized by a process of beach rotation, which occurred more or less clearly during all three surveys. Unlike what has been commonly described in the literature for longer time intervals and alternations of fair and stormy weather, the beach rotation processes on Sununga Beach occurred under conditions of moderate-to-high wave energy change (wave heights greater than 2 m). An integrated evaluation of the behaviour of the meteorological aspects, together with beach morphology, enabled us to recognize that extra-tropical cyclones were the most important agent in remobilizing the beach planform, whether in beach rotation or in cross-shore erosion. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Biophysical interactions in the Cabo Frio upwelling system, southeastern Brazil

The rising of cold water from deeper levels characterizes coastal upwelling systems. This flow makes nutrients available in the euphotic layer, which enhances phytoplankton production and growth. On the Brazilian coast, upwelling is most intense in the Cabo Frio region (RJ). The basic knowledge of this system was reviewed in accordance with concepts of biophysical interactions. The high frequency and amplitude of the prevailing winds are the main factor promoting the rise of South Atlantic Central Water, but meanders and eddies in the Brazil Current as well as local topography and coast line are also important. Upwelling events are common during spring/summer seasons. Primary biomass is exported by virtue of the water circulation and is also controlled by rapid zooplankton predation. Small pelagic fish regulate plankton growth and in their turn are preyed on by predatory fish. Sardine furnishes an important regional fish stock. Shoreline irregularities define the embayment formation of the Marine Extractive Reserve of Arraial do Cabo making it an area with evident different intensities of upwelled water that harbors high species diversity. Consequently, on a small spatial scale there are environments with tropical and subtropical features, a point to be explored as a particularity of this ecosystem.

Dielectric map of the Martian northern hemisphere and the nature of plain filling materials

[1] A number of observations suggest that an extended ocean once covered a significant part of the Martian northern hemisphere. By probing the physical properties of the subsurface to unprecedented depth, the MARSIS/Mars Express provides new geophysical evidences for the former existence of a Late Hesperian ocean. The Vastitas Borealis formation, located inside a putative shoreline of the ancient ocean, has a low dielectric constant compared with that of typical volcanic materials. We show that the measured value is only consistent with low-density sedimentary deposits, massive deposits of ground-ice, or a combination of the two. In contrast, radar observations indicate a distribution of shallow ground ice in equilibrium with the atmosphere in the south polar region. We conclude that the northern plains are filled with remnants of a late Hesperian ocean, fed by water and sediments from the outflow channels about 3 Gy ago.

Impact of copper mine tailings (stamp sand) on survival and development of aquatic organisms near Gay, Michigan

Heavy metal-rich copper mine tailings, called stamp sands, were dumped by mining companies directly into streams and along the Lake Superior shoreline, degrading Keweenaw Peninsula waterways. One of the largest disposal sites is near Gay, Michigan, where tailings have been moved along the shoreline by currents since mining ceased. As a result, the smallest sand particles have been washed into deeper water and are filling the interstitial spaces of Buffalo Reef, a critical lake trout spawning site. This research is the first to investigate if stamp sand is detrimental to survival and early development of eggs and larvae of lake sturgeon, lake trout, and Northern leopard frogs, and also examines if the presence of stamp sands influences substrate selection of earthworms. This study found that stamp sand had significantly larger mean particle sizes and irregular shapes compared to natural sand, and earthworms show a strong preference for natural substrate over any combination that included stamp sand. Additionally, copper analysis (Cu2+) of surface water over stamp sand and natural sand showed concentrations were significantly higher in stamp sand surface water (100 μg/L) compared to natural sand surface water (10 μg/L). Frog embryos had similar hatch success over both types of sand, but tadpoles reared over natural sand grew faster and had higher survival rates. Eggs of lake sturgeon showed similar hatch success and development over natural vs. stamp sand over 17 days, while lake trout eggs hatched earlier and developed faster when incubated over stamp sand, yet showed similar development over a 163 day period. Copper from stamp sand appears to impact amphibians more than fish species in this study. These results will help determine what impact stamp sand has on organisms found throughout the Keweenaw Peninsula which encounter the material at some point in their life history.