Prospective run theory for multinomial outcomes

The focus of this study was to generalize the theory of runs to multinomial outcomes using the generating function approach. Detailed discussion is provided for determining the probability distributions for all runs of length i in a sequence of n trials for the binomial and trinomial cases. The generalization to multinomial case is also presented. Application to data for patients from a long term disability care facility is presented to illustrate the use of Run Theory in determining the probability of a dominant state of treatment associated with a patient during his/her hospitalization. ^

Policy analysis of shifting to the state-run Texas women's health program

During the 82nd Texas legislature, state leaders passed a provision stating that healthcare providers, who perform, promote, or affiliate with providers who perform or promote elective abortion services may not be eligible to participate in the Texas Medicaid Women's Health Program (WHP). The federal government reacted to this new provision by vowing to eliminate its 90% share of program support on the grounds that the provision violated a patient's freedom to choose a provider; a right protected by the Social Security Act. Texas leaders stated that the Women's Health Program would continue without federal support, financed exclusively with state funds.^ The following policy analysis compares the projected impact of the current Medicaid Women's Health Program to the proposed state-run program using the criteria-alternative matrix framework. The criteria used to evaluate the program alternatives include population affected, unintended pregnancy and abortion impact, impact on cervical cancer rate, and state-level government expenditures. Each criterion was defined by selected measures. The population affected was measured by the number of women served in the programs. Government expenditures were measured in terms of payments for program costs, Medicaid delivery costs, and cervical cancer diagnostic costs. Unintended pregnancy impact was measured by the number of projected unplanned pregnancies and abortions under each alternative. The impact on cervical cancer was projected in terms of the number of new cervical cancer cases under each alternative. Differences in the projections with respect to each criterion were compared to assess the impact of shifting to the state-only policy.^ After examining program alternatives, it is highly recommended that Texas retain the Medicaid WHP. If the state does decide to move forward with the state-run WHP, it is recommended that the program run at its previous capacity. Furthermore, for the purpose of addressing the relatively high cervical cancer incidence rate in Texas, incorporating HPV vaccination coverage for women ages 18-26 as part of the Women's Health Program is recommended.^

Northwards and eastwards velocities extracted from a historical run (for the year 2000) of the UVic Earth System Climate Model of Weaver et al. (2001)

This study provides a theoretical assessment of the potential bias due to differential lateral transport on multi-proxy studies based on a range of marine microfossils. Microfossils preserved in marine sediments are at the centre of numerous proxies for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The precision of proxies is based on the assumption that they accurately represent the overlying watercolumn properties and faunas. Here we assess the possibility of a syn-depositional bias in sediment assemblages caused by horizontal drift in the water column, due to differential settling velocities of sedimenting particles based on their shape, size and density, and due to differences in current velocities. Specifically we calculate the post-mortem lateral transport undergone by planktic foraminifera and a range of other biological proxy carriers (diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets transporting coccolithophores) in several regions with high current velocities. We find that lateral transport of different planktic foraminiferal species is minimal due to high settling velocities. No significant shape- or size-dependent sorting occurs before reaching the sediment, making planktic foraminiferal ideal proxy carriers. In contrast, diatoms, radiolaria and fecal pellets can be transported up to 500km in some areas. For example in the Agulhas current, transport can lead to differences of up to 2°C in temperature reconstructions between different proxies in response to settling velocities. Therefore, sediment samples are likely to contain different proportions of local and imported particles, decreasing the precision of proxies based on these groups and the accuracy of the temperature reconstruction.

(Table 3) Run conditions and phase relations and proportions during cooling rate experiments on ODP Interval 163-989B-10R-7,55-59

Equilibrium melting and controlled cooling experiments were undertaken to constrain the crystallization and cooling histories of tholeiitic basalts recovered by the Ocean Drilling Program drilling of Site 989 on the Southeast Greenland continental margin. Isothermal experiments conducted at 1 atm. and at the fayalite-magnetite-quartz buffer using lava sample Section 163-989B-10R-7 yielded the equilibrium appearance sequence with decreasing temperature: olivine at 1184 ± 2ºC; plagioclase at 1177ºC ± 5ºC; augite at 1167 ± 5ºC; and pigeonite at 1113 ± 12ºC. In controlled cooling experiments using the same starting composition and cooling rates between 10ºC/hr and 2000ºC/hr, we find a significant temperature delay in the crystallization of olivine, plagioclase, and augite (relative to the equilibrium appearance temperature); pigeonite does not form under any dynamic crystallization conditions. Olivine exhibits the largest suppression in appearance temperature (e.g., 30º for 10ºC/hr and >190º at 100ºC/hr), while plagioclase shows the smallest (~10ºC at 10ºC/hr; 30ºC at 100ºC/hr, and ~80ºC at 1000ºC/hr). These results are in marked contrast to those obtained on lunar basalts, which generally show a large suppression of plagioclase crystallization and modest suppression of olivine crystallization with an increased cooling rate. The results we report agree well with the petrography of lavas recovered from Site 989. Furthermore, the textural analysis of run products, representing a large range of cooling rates and quench temperatures (1150ºC to 1000ºC), provide a framework for evaluating cooling conditions necessary for glass formation, rates of plagioclase growth, and kinetic factors governing plagioclase growth morphology. Specifically, we use these insights to interpret the textural and mineralogical features of the unusual compound flow recovered at Site 989. We concluded from the analysis that this flow most likely records multiple breakouts from a distal tube at an abrupt break in slope, possibly a fault scarp, resulting in the formation of a lava fan delta. This interpretation implies that normal faulting of the oldest lava sequences (lower and, possibly, middle series) preceded eruption of Site 989 lavas.

Three time-slice simulations of the Eemian (eem), the mid-Holocene (hol), and a pre-industrial (pri) control run with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.

Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and buffer factor from model run 2012-2100, with links to model results

The Southern Ocean is a key region for global carbon uptake and is characterised by a strong seasonality with the annual CO2 uptake being mediated by biological carbon draw-down in summer. Here, we show that the contribution of biology to CO2 uptake will become even more important until 2100. This is the case even if biological production remains unaltered and can be explained by the decreasing buffer capacity of the ocean as its carbon content increases. The same amount of biological carbon draw-down leads to a more than twice as large reduction in CO2 (aq) concentration and hence to a larger CO2 gradient between ocean and atmosphere that drives the gas-exchange. While the winter uptake south of 44°S changes little, the summer uptake increases largely and is responsible for the annual mean response. The combination of decreasing buffer capacity and strong seasonality of biological carbon draw-down introduces a strong and increasing seasonality in the anthropogenic carbon uptake.

The Long-Run Phillips Curve: A Structural VAR Investigation

Both cointegration methods, and non-cointegrated structural VARs identified based on either long-run restrictions, or a combination of long-run and sign restrictions, are used in order to explore the long-run trade-off between inflation and the unemployment rate in the post-WWII U.S., U.K., Euro area, Canada, and Australia. Overall, neither approach produces clear evidence of a non-vertical trade-off. The extent of uncertainty surrounding the estimates is however substantial, thus implying that a researcher holding alternative priors about what a reasonable slope of the long-run trade-off might be will likely not see her views falsified

Longitudinal Changes in Response to a Cycle-Run Field Test of Young Male National "Talent identification" and Senior Elite Triathlon Squads.

This study investigated the changes in cardiorespiratory response and running performance of 9 male ?Talent Identification? (TID) and 6 male Senior Elite (SE) Spanish National Squad triathletes during a specific cycle-run test. The TID and SE triathletes (initial age 15.2±0.7 vs. 23.8±5.6 years, p=0.03; tests through the competitive period and the preparatory period, respectively, of two consecutive seasons: Test 1 was an incremental cycle test to determine the ventilatory threshold (Thvent); Test 2 (C-R) was 30 min constant load cycling at the Thvent power output followed by a 3-km time trial run; and Test 3 (R) was an isolated 3-km time trial control run, in randomized counterbalanced order. In both seasons the time required to complete the C-R 3-km run was greater than for R in TID (11:09±00:24 vs. 10:45±00:16 min:ss, pmenor que 0.01; and 10:24±00:22 vs. 10:04±00:14, p=0.006, for season 2005/06 and 2006/07, respectively) and SE (10:15±00:19 vs. 09:45±00:30, pmenor que 0.001 and 09:51±00:26 vs. 09:46±00:06, p= 0.02 for season 2005/06 and 2006/07, respectively). Compared to the first season, completion of the time trial run was faster in the second season (6.6%, pmenor que 0.01 and 6.4%, pmenor que 0.01, for C-R and R test, respectively) only in TID. Changes in post-cycling run performance were accompanied by changes in pacing strategy but only slight or non-significant changes in the cardiorespiratory response. Thus, the negative effect of cycling on performance may persist, independently of the period, over two consecutive seasons in TID and SE triathletes; however A improvements over time suggests that monitoring running pacing strategy after cycling may be a useful tool to control performance and training adaptations in TID. O2max 77.0±5.6 vs. 77.8±3.6 mL·kg-1·min-1, NS) underwent three TE D EP C C

Pond head level control in a run-of-river hydro power plant using fuzzy controller

The run-of-river hydro power plant usually have low or nil water storage capacity, and therefore an adequate control strategy is required to keep the water level constant in pond. This paper presents a novel technique based on TSK fuzzy controller to maintain the pond head constant. The performance is investigated over a wide range of hill curve of hydro turbine. The results are compared with PI controller as discussed in [1].