Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project. MEDPRO Report No. 6, May 2013

In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic outlook for each region and sector of the model. This means that assumptions are made about the main drivers of growth, e.g. population growth and technical progress. This report provides the main assumptions used for the development of the reference scenario in the MEDPRO project. The report also provides a brief country and sectoral overview for each of the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries covered by the MEDPRO project.

Effects of ocean acidification on growth and physiology of Ulva lactuca (Chlorophyta) in a rockpool-scenario, link to supplementary data

Rising atmospheric CO2-concentrations will have severe consequences for a variety of biological processes. We investigated the responses of the green alga Ulva lactuca (Linnaeus) to rising CO2-concentrations in a rockpool scenario. U. lactuca was cultured under aeraton with air containing either preindustrial pCO2 (280µatm) or for the end of the 21st century predicted (700µatm) pCO2 for 31 days. We addressed the following question: Will elevated CO2-concentrations affect photosynthesis (net photosynthesis, rETR(max), Fv/Fm, pigment composition) and growth of U. lactuca in rockpools with limited water exchange? Two phases of the experiment were distinguished: In the initial phase (day 1-4) the Seawater Carbonate System (SWCS) of the culture medium could be adjusted to the selected atmospheric pCO2 condition by continuous aeration with target pCO2 values. In the second phase (day 4-31) the SWCS was largely determined by the metabolism of the growing U. lactuca biomass. In the initial phase, Fv/Fm and rETR(max) were only slightly elevated at high CO2-concentrations whereas growth was significantly enhanced. After 31 days the Chl a content of the thalli was significantly lower under future conditions and the photosynthesis of thalli grown under preindustrial conditions was not dependent on external carbonic anhydrase. Biomass increased significantly at high CO2-concentrations. At low CO2-concentrations most adult thalli disintegrated between day 14 and 21, whereas at high CO2-concentrations most thalli remained integer until day 31. Thallus disintegration at low CO2-concentrations was mirrored in a drastic decline in seawater DIC and HCO3-. Accordingly, the SWCS differed significantly between the treatments. Our results indicated a slight enhancement of photosynthetic performance and significantly elevated growth of U. lactuca at future CO2-concentrations. The accelerated thallus disintegration at high CO2-concentrations under conditions of limited water exchange indicates additional CO2 effects on the life cycle of U. lactuca when living in rockpools.

Author and composer; a digest for songwriters, dramatists, scenario writers, fictionists.

Numbering irregular: v. 9-13 repeated.

ENEWS, scenario generation.

Mode of access: Internet.

General practitioners' role in preventive medicine: scenario analysis using alcohol as a case study

The purpose of this analysis is threefold: first, to extract from the literature, current levels of GP detection of at-risk drinking by their patients, rates at which general practitioners (GPs) offer an intervention; and the effectiveness of these interventions; secondly, to develop a model based on this literature to be used in conjunction with scenario analysis; and thirdly, to consider the cost implications of current efforts and various scenarios. This study deals specifically with Australian general practice. A two-step procedure is used in the scenario analysis, which involves identifying opportunities for detection, intervention, effectiveness and assigning probabilities to outcomes. The results suggest that increasing rates of GP intervention achieves greatest benefit and return on resource use. For every 5% point increase in the rate of GP intervention, an additional 26 754 at-risk drinkers modify their drinking behaviour at a cost of $231.45 per patient. This compares with a cost per patient modifying drinking behaviour of $232.60 and $208.31 for every 5% point increase in the rates of detection and effectiveness, respectively. The knowledge, skill and attitude of practitioners toward drinking are significant, and they can be the prime motivators in persuading their patients to modify drinking behaviour.

A comparison of surface brightness profiles for ultracompact dwarfs and dwarf elliptical nuclei: implications for the “threshing” scenario

Using imaging from the Hubble Space Telescope, we derive surface brightness profiles for ultracompact dwarfs in the Fornax Cluster and for the nuclei of dwarf elliptical galaxies in the Virgo Cluster. Ultracompact dwarfs are more extended and have higher surface brightnesses than typical dwarf nuclei, while the luminosities, colors, and sizes of the nuclei are closer to those of Galactic globular clusters. This calls into question the production of ultracompact dwarfs via threshing, whereby the lower surface brightness envelope of a dwarf elliptical galaxy is removed by tidal processes, leaving behind a bare nucleus. Threshing may still be a viable model if the relatively bright Fornax ultracompact dwarfs considered here are descended from dwarf elliptical galaxies whose nuclei are at the upper end of their luminosity and size distributions.

Robust automatic mapping algorithms in a network monitoring scenario

Automatically generating maps of a measured variable of interest can be problematic. In this work we focus on the monitoring network context where observations are collected and reported by a network of sensors, and are then transformed into interpolated maps for use in decision making. Using traditional geostatistical methods, estimating the covariance structure of data collected in an emergency situation can be difficult. Variogram determination, whether by method-of-moment estimators or by maximum likelihood, is very sensitive to extreme values. Even when a monitoring network is in a routine mode of operation, sensors can sporadically malfunction and report extreme values. If this extreme data destabilises the model, causing the covariance structure of the observed data to be incorrectly estimated, the generated maps will be of little value, and the uncertainty estimates in particular will be misleading. Marchant and Lark [2007] propose a REML estimator for the covariance, which is shown to work on small data sets with a manual selection of the damping parameter in the robust likelihood. We show how this can be extended to allow treatment of large data sets together with an automated approach to all parameter estimation. The projected process kriging framework of Ingram et al. [2007] is extended to allow the use of robust likelihood functions, including the two component Gaussian and the Huber function. We show how our algorithm is further refined to reduce the computational complexity while at the same time minimising any loss of information. To show the benefits of this method, we use data collected from radiation monitoring networks across Europe. We compare our results to those obtained from traditional kriging methodologies and include comparisons with Box-Cox transformations of the data. We discuss the issue of whether to treat or ignore extreme values, making the distinction between the robust methods which ignore outliers and transformation methods which treat them as part of the (transformed) process. Using a case study, based on an extreme radiological events over a large area, we show how radiation data collected from monitoring networks can be analysed automatically and then used to generate reliable maps to inform decision making. We show the limitations of the methods and discuss potential extensions to remedy these.

Scenario planning:teaching how to anticipate perceived environmental uncertainty within strategy development

Scenario Planning is a strategy tool with growing popularity in both academia and practical situations. Current practices in the teaching of scenario planning are largely based on existing literature which utilises scenario planning to develop strategies for the future, primarily considering the assessment of perceived macro-external environmental uncertainties. However there is a body of literature hitherto ignored by scenario planning researchers, which suggests that Perceived Environmental Uncertainty (PEU) influences micro-external or industrial environmental as well as the internal environment of the organisation. This paper provides a review of the most dominant theories on scenario planning process, demonstrates the need to consider PEU theory within scenario planning and presents how this can be done. The scope of this paper is to enhance the scenario planning process as a tool taught for Strategy Development. A case vignette is developed based on published scenarios to demonstrate the potential utilisation of the proposed process.