916 resultados para Return predictability


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The research presented in this article centres on an under-researched demographic group of young return migrants, namely, second-generation Barbadians, or 'Bajan-Brits', who have decided to 'return' to the birthplace of their parents. Based on 51 in-depth interviews, the essay examines the experiences of second-generation return migrants from an interpretative perspective framed within post-colonial discourse. The article first considers the Bajan-Brits and issues of race in the UK before their decision to migrate. It is then demonstrated that on 'return', in certain respects, these young, black English migrants occupy a liminal position of cultural, racial and economic privilege, based on their 'symbolic' or 'token' whiteness within the post-colonial context of Barbados. But this very hybridity and inbetweeness means that they also face difficulties and associated feelings of social alienation and discrimination. The ambivalent status of this transnational group of migrants serves to challenge traditional notions of Barbadian racial identity.

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In this paper, the predictability of climate arising from ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies is investigated in the HadCM3 coupled atmosphere–ocean model. An ensemble of simulations of the twentieth century are used to provide initial conditions for a case study. The case study consists of two ensembles started from initial conditions with large differences in regional OHC in the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and parts of the West Pacific. Surface temperatures and precipitation are on average not predictable beyond seasonal time scales, but for certain initial conditions there may be longer predictability. It is shown that, for the case study examined here, some aspects of tropical precipitation, European surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea-level pressure are potentially predictable 2 years ahead. Predictability also exists in the other case studies, but the climate variables and regions, which are potentially predictable, differ. This work was done as part of the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) eScience project.

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Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.