A Tale of Two States: What We Learn from California and Texas

Teen birth rates and teen pregnancy prevention strategies vary widely across individual states in the US, which has the highest overall teen birth rate among developed nations. California and Texas, the two most populous states currently accounting for a quarter of all teen births, have taken very different approaches to addressing adolescent reproductive health. This case study examines the racial/ethnic composition and socioeconomic factors of these two states from 1981 to 2008. State programs and policies implemented between 1991 and 2008 as well as changes in access to contraception and public–private partnerships are discussed. Based on the lessons learned from California, a similar multifaceted campaign in Texas may be effective in reducing teen births.

Isotopic constraints on marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during the last deglaciation

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance that has anthropogenic as well as natural marine and terrestrial sources. The tropospheric N2O concentrations have varied substantially in the past in concert with changing climate on glacial–interglacial and millennial timescales. It is not well understood, however, how N2O emissions from marine and terrestrial sources change in response to varying environmental conditions. The distinct isotopic compositions of marine and terrestrial N2O sources can help disentangle the relative changes in marine and terrestrial N2O emissions during past climate variations. Here we present N2O concentration and isotopic data for the last deglaciation, from 16,000 to 10,000 years before present, retrieved from air bubbles trapped in polar ice at Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. With the help of our data and a box model of the N2O cycle, we find a 30 per cent increase in total N2O emissions from the late glacial to the interglacial, with terrestrial and marine emissions contributing equally to the overall increase and generally evolving in parallel over the last deglaciation, even though there is no a priori connection between the drivers of the two sources. However, we find that terrestrial emissions dominated on centennial timescales, consistent with a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation and land surface process model that suggests that during the last deglaciation emission changes were strongly influenced by temperature and precipitation patterns over land surfaces. The results improve our understanding of the drivers of natural N2O emissions and are consistent with the idea that natural N2O emissions will probably increase in response to anthropogenic warming.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Source apportionment of elemental carbon in Beijing, China: insights from radiocarbon and organic marker measurements

Elemental carbon (EC) or black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere has a strong influence on both climate and human health. In this study, radiocarbon (14C) based source apportionment is used to distinguish between fossil fuel and biomass burning sources of EC isolated from aerosol filter samples collected in Beijing from June 2010 to May 2011. The 14C results demonstrate that EC is consistently dominated by fossil-fuel combustion throughout the whole year with a mean contribution of 79% ± 6% (ranging from 70% to 91%), though EC has a higher mean and peak concentrations in the cold season. The seasonal molecular pattern of hopanes (i.e., a class of organic markers mainly emitted during the combustion of different fossil fuels) indicates that traffic-related emissions are the most important fossil source in the warm period and coal combustion emissions are significantly increased in the cold season. By combining 14C based source apportionment results and picene (i.e., an organic marker for coal emissions) concentrations, relative contributions from coal (mainly from residential bituminous coal) and vehicle to EC in the cold period were estimated as 25 ± 4% and 50 ± 7%, respectively, whereas the coal combustion contribution was negligible or very small in the warm period.

Mean sortable silt values from Holocene and glacial Scotia Sea sediments

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is key to the mixing and ventilation of the world's oceans. This current flows from west to east between about 45° and 70° S connecting the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and is driven by westerly winds and buoyancy forcing. High levels of productivity in the current regulate atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Reconstructions of the current during the last glacial period suggest that flow speeds were faster or similar to present, and it is uncertain whether the strength and position of the westerly winds changed. Here we reconstruct Antarctic Circumpolar Current bottom speeds through the constricting Drake Passage and Scotia Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene based on the mean grain size of sortable silt from a suite of sediment cores. We find essentially no change in bottom flow speeds through the region, and, given that the momentum imparted by winds, and modulated by sea-ice cover, is balanced by the interaction of these flows with the seabed, this argues against substantial changes in wind stress. However, glacial flow speeds in the sea-ice zone south of 56° S were significantly slower than present, whereas flow in the north was faster, but not significantly so. We suggest that slower flow over the rough topography south of 56° S may have reduced diapycnal mixing in this region during the last glacial period, possibly reducing the diapycnal contribution to the Southern Ocean overturning circulation.

Copepod abundance and fecal pellet production, sinking rate, and degradation in samples obtained during Leg 7 of Galathea 3 cruise 2006

The vertical distribution of copepods, fecal pellets and the fecal pellet production of copepods were measured at seven stations across the Southern Indian Ocean from productive areas off South Africa to oligotrophic waters off Northern Australia during October/November 2006. We quantified export of copepod fecal pellet from surface waters and how much was retained. Furthermore, the potential impact of Oncaea spp. and harpacticoid copepods on fecal pellets degradation was evaluated and found to be regional substantial. The highest copepod abundance and fecal pellet production was found in the western nutrient-rich stations close to South Africa and the lowest at the central oligotrophic stations. The in situ copepod fecal pellet production varied between 1 and 1,000 µg C/m**3/day. At all stations, the retention of fecal pellets in the upper 400 m of the water column was more than 99% and the vertical export of fecal pellets was low (<0.02 mg/m**2/day).

Geochemistry of Cretaceous sediments from Argo and Gascoyne Abyssal Plains

The accumulation of organic matter, ferrous and pyrite iron, and the ratios of organic carbon/total sulfur and organic carbon/total phosphorus in the Lower Cretaceous sediments from the Argo and Gascoyne abyssal plains have been used as indicators of both the source and reactivity of organic matter in the sediments and the depositional environment. Total sulfur, used as an indicator of pyrite sulfur, is more abundant in sediments from the Gascoyne Abyssal Plain than in those from the Argo Abyssal Plain. Sulfur positively correlates with TOC at both sites (although poorly at the Argo Abyssal Plain site, R = 0.48), with an extension of the line of best-fit through the origin, indicating that pyrite (TOC <2 wt%) is diagenetic and deposited from normal marine conditions. The average ratio of C/S for samples of TOC <2 wt% is 5.4 at Argo Abyssal Plain (compared to the modern normal marine value of 2.8) indicating deposition of organic matter probably of mixed terrestrial and oxidized marine sources that is unreactive to the sulfate-reducing bacteria. One sample from the Aptian sediments is rich in TOC (5.1 wt%) and has a C/S ratio of 0.5. The average C/S ratio in Gascoyne Abyssal Plain sediments is 0.8 (R = 0.97), which indicates the formation of abundant pyrite in addition to burial and preservation of relatively fresh organic matter that is reactive to the sulfate-reducing bacteria. Organic carbon to phosphorus ratios (C/P) in the sediments indicate preferential remobilization of organic carbon over phosphorus with increasing water depth. Estimates of the degree of pyritization (DOP) increase with increasing TOC at both sites, indicating iron is not limiting and pyrite is formed diagenetically. The one sample with a TOC content of 5.1 wt%, from the Argo Abyssal Plain near the Barremian-Aptian boundary, is composed mostly of framboidal pyrite, finely laminated and not bioturbated, and hence may have been deposited during a brief period of anoxia in the overlying waters.

Consumption-based accounting of U.S. CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2010

To tackle global climate change, it is desirable to reduce CO2 emissions associated with household consumption in particular in developed countries, which tend to have much higher per capita household carbon footprints than less developed countries. Our results show that carbon intensity of different consumption categories in the U.S. varies significantly. The carbon footprint tends to increase with increasing income but at a decreasing rate due to additional income being spent on less carbon intensive consumption items. This general tendency is frequently compensated by higher frequency of international trips and higher housing related carbon emissions (larger houses and more space for consumption items). Our results also show that more than 30% of CO2 emissions associated with household consumption in the U.S. occur outside of the U.S. Given these facts, the design of carbon mitigation policies should take changing household consumption patterns and international trade into account.

Emission inventories and modeling requirements for the development of air quality plans. Application to Madrid (Spain)

Modeling is an essential tool for the development of atmospheric emission abatement measures and air quality plans. Most often these plans are related to urban environments with high emission density and population exposure. However, air quality modeling in urban areas is a rather challenging task. As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive 2008/50/EC), more reliable and sophisticated modeling tools are needed to simulate measures and plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common in large urban areas across Europe, particularly for NO2. This also implies that emission inventories must satisfy a number of conditions such as consistency across the spatial scales involved in the analysis, consistency with the emission inventories used for regulatory purposes and versatility to match the requirements of different air quality and emission projection models. This study reports the modeling activities carried out in Madrid (Spain) highlighting the atmospheric emission inventory development and preparation as an illustrative example of the combination of models and data needed to develop a consistent air quality plan at urban level. These included a series of source apportionment studies to define contributions from the international, national, regional and local sources in order to understand to what extent local authorities can enforce meaningful abatement measures. Moreover, source apportionment studies were conducted in order to define contributions from different sectors and to understand the maximum feasible air quality improvement that can be achieved by reducing emissions from those sectors, thus targeting emission reduction policies to the most relevant activities. Finally, an emission scenario reflecting the effect of such policies was developed and the associated air quality was modeled.

CO2 emissions from a spark ignition engine operatin on natural-hydrogen blends (HCNG)

The addition of hydrogen to natural gas could be a short-term alternative to today’s fossil fuels, as greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced. The aim of this study is to evaluate the emissions and performance of a spark ignition engine fuelled by pure natural gas, pure hydrogen, and different blends of hydrogen and natural gas (HCNG). Increasing the hydrogen fraction leads to variations in cylinder pressure and CO2 emissions. In this study, a combustion model based on thermodynamic equations is used, considering separate zones for burned and unburned gases. The results show that the maximum cylinder pressure rises as the fraction of hydrogen in the blend increases. The presence of hydrogen in the blend leads to a decrease in CO2 emissions. Due to the properties of hydrogen, leaner fuel–air mixtures can be used along with the appropriate spark timing, leading to an improvement in engine emissions with no loss of performance.

Expectations from EMET and OESEE ground listening of possible EM events generated by the TSS 1R

On 22nd February '96, the space mission STS 75 started ,from the NASA facilities at Cape Canaveral. Such a mission consists in the launch of the shuttle Columbia in order to carry out two experiments in the space: the TSS 1R (Tethered Satellite Sistem 1 Refliight) and the USMP (United States Microgravity Payload). The TSS 1R is a replica of a similar mission TSS 1 '92. The TSS space programme is a bilateral scientific cooperation between the USA space agency NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Agency) and the ASI (Italian Space Agency. The TSS 1R system consists on the shuttle Columbia which deploys, up-ward, by means a conducting tether 20 km long, a spherical satellite (1.5 mt diameter) containing scientific instrumentation. This system, orbiting at about 300 km from the Earth's surface, represents, presently, the largest experimental space structure, Due to its dimensions, flexibility and conducting properties of the tether, the system interacts, in a quite complex manner, wih the earth magnetic field and the ionospheric plasma, in a way that the total system behaves as an electromagnetic radiating antenna as well as an electric power generator. Twelve scientific experiments have been assessed by US and Italian scientists in order to study the electro dynamic behaviour of the structure orbiting in the ionos phere. Two experiments have been prepared in the attempt to receive on the Earth's surface possible electromagnetic events radiated by the TSS 1R. The project EMET (Electro Magnetic Emissions from Tether),USA and the project OESEE (Observations on the Earth Surface of Electromagnetic Emissions) Italy, consist in a coordinated programme of passive detection of such possible EM emissions. This detection will supply the verification of some thoretical hypotheses on the electrodynamic interactions between the orbiting system, the Earth's magnetic field and the ionospheric plasma with two principal aims as the technological assesment of the system concept as well as a deeper knowledge of the ionosphere properties for future space applications. A theoretical model that keeps the peculiarities of tether emissionsis being developed for signal prediction at constant tether current. As a step previous to the calculation of the expected ground signal , the Alfven-wave signature left by the tether far back in the ionosphere has been determined. The scientific expectations from the combined effort to measure the entity of those perturbations will be outlined taking in to account the used ground track sensor systems.

Global research alliance modelling platform (GRAMP): an open web platform for modelling greenhouse gas emissions from agro-ecosystems

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) process-based models are important tools for estimating and reporting greenhouse gas emissions and changes in soil C stocks. There is a need for continuous evaluation, development and adaptation of these models to improve scientific understanding, national inventories and assessment of mitigation options across the world. To date, much of the information needed to describe different processes like transpiration, photosynthesis, plant growth and maintenance, above and below ground carbon dynamics, decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. In ecosystem models remains inaccessible to the wider community, being stored within model computer source code, or held internally by modelling teams. Here we describe the Global Research Alliance Modelling Platform (GRAMP), a web-based modelling platform to link researchers with appropriate datasets, models and training material. It will provide access to model source code and an interactive platform for researchers to form a consensus on existing methods, and to synthesize new ideas, which will help to advance progress in this area. The platform will eventually support a variety of models, but to trial the platform and test the architecture and functionality, it was piloted with variants of the DNDC model. The intention is to form a worldwide collaborative network (a virtual laboratory) via an interactive website with access to models and best practice guidelines; appropriate datasets for testing, calibrating and evaluating models; on-line tutorials and links to modelling and data provider research groups, and their associated publications. A graphical user interface has been designed to view the model development tree and access all of the above functions.

Do cover crops enhance N2O, CO2 or CH4 emissions from soil in Mediterranean arable systems?

This study evaluates the effect of planting three cover crops (CCs) (barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; vetch, Vicia villosa L.; rape, Brassica napus L.) on the direct emission of N2O, CO2 and CH4 in the intercrop period and the impact of incorporating these CCs on the emission of greenhouse gas (GHG) from the forthcoming irrigated maize (Zea mays L.) crop. Vetch and barley were the CCs with the highest N2O and CO2 losses (75 and 47% increase compared with the control, respectively) in the fallow period. In all cases, fluxes of N2O were increased through N fertilization and the incorporation of barley and rape residues (40 and 17% increase, respectively). The combination of a high C:N ratio with the addition of an external source of mineral N increased the fluxes of N2O compared with − Ba and − Rp. The direct emissions of N2O were lower than expected for a fertilized crop (0.10% emission factor, EF) compared with other studies and the IPCC EF. These results are believed to be associated with a decreased NO3− pool due to highly denitrifying conditions and increased drainage. The fluxes of CO2 were in the range of other fertilized crops (i.e., 1118.71–1736.52 kg CO2–C ha− 1). The incorporation of CC residues enhanced soil respiration in the range of 21–28% for barley and rape although no significant differences between treatments were detected. Negative CH4 fluxes were measured and displayed an overall sink effect for all incorporated CC (mean values of − 0.12 and − 0.10 kg CH4–C ha− 1 for plots with and without incorporated CCs, respectively).

Dietary Fibre in Pig's Diets: Effects on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Slurry Storage to Field Application

Pig’s slurry is a key source of greenhouse gases (GHG). In Spain, GHG emissions (CH4+ N2O) from pig slurry (storage and land application) accounted in 2011 for 18.4% of total GHG emissions (in CO2- equivalent) of the agriculture sector according to the National Inventory Report (NIR). Slurry composition can be modified through diet manipulation. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of different fibre types in fattening pigs’ diets on GHG emissions from pig slurry storage and field application.