An empirical evaluation of the Random Forests classifier models for variable selection in a large-scale lung cancer case-control study

Random Forests™ is reported to be one of the most accurate classification algorithms in complex data analysis. It shows excellent performance even when most predictors are noisy and the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. In this thesis Random Forests was applied to a large-scale lung cancer case-control study. A novel way of automatically selecting prognostic factors was proposed. Also, synthetic positive control was used to validate Random Forests method. Throughout this study we showed that Random Forests can deal with large number of weak input variables without overfitting. It can account for non-additive interactions between these input variables. Random Forests can also be used for variable selection without being adversely affected by collinearities. ^ Random Forests can deal with the large-scale data sets without rigorous data preprocessing. It has robust variable importance ranking measure. Proposed is a novel variable selection method in context of Random Forests that uses the data noise level as the cut-off value to determine the subset of the important predictors. This new approach enhanced the ability of the Random Forests algorithm to automatically identify important predictors for complex data. The cut-off value can also be adjusted based on the results of the synthetic positive control experiments. ^ When the data set had high variables to observations ratio, Random Forests complemented the established logistic regression. This study suggested that Random Forests is recommended for such high dimensionality data. One can use Random Forests to select the important variables and then use logistic regression or Random Forests itself to estimate the effect size of the predictors and to classify new observations. ^ We also found that the mean decrease of accuracy is a more reliable variable ranking measurement than mean decrease of Gini. ^

Variables sociodemográficas, médicas y psicológicas relacionadas con el comportamiento de fumar y con los intentos de dejar de fumar en una muestra comunitaria

Se estudia la relación entre variables sociodemográficas, médicas y psicológicas y el comportamiento de fumar y los intentos de dejar de fumar. La muestra (n=291) se ha extraído al azar de una población comunitaria rural de 4300 habitantes. Todas las variables se han medido con un único cuestionario, a través de entrevista personal domiciliaria. Mediante análisis discriminantes las variables sexo, consumo de bebidas alcohólicas y el uso de medicamentos son las que más explican estadísticamente el comportamiento de fumar. Sorprendentemente, sólo una variable, haber visitado al médico en los últimos 12 meses, se asoció, bivariadamente, con los intentos de dejar de fumar, y no se procedía, lógicamente, con el análisis multivariante. Por último, se discuten los hallazgos a la luz de la literatura internacional y nacional.

Random error in willingness to pay measurement: A multiple indicators, latent variable approach to the reliability of contingent values

The reliability of measurement refers to unsystematic error in observed responses. Investigations of the prevalence of random error in stated estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) are important to an understanding of why tests of validity in CV can fail. However, published reliability studies have tended to adopt empirical methods that have practical and conceptual limitations when applied to WTP responses. This contention is supported in a review of contingent valuation reliability studies that demonstrate important limitations of existing approaches to WTP reliability. It is argued that empirical assessments of the reliability of contingent values may be better dealt with by using multiple indicators to measure the latent WTP distribution. This latent variable approach is demonstrated with data obtained from a WTP study for stormwater pollution abatement. Attitude variables were employed as a way of assessing the reliability of open-ended WTP (with benchmarked payment cards) for stormwater pollution abatement. The results indicated that participants' decisions to pay were reliably measured, but not the magnitude of the WTP bids. This finding highlights the need to better discern what is actually being measured in VVTP studies, (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters from non-compartmental variables using Microsoft Excel((R))

This study was conducted to develop a method, termed 'back analysis (BA)', for converting non-compartmental variables to compartment model dependent pharmacokinetic parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. A Microsoft Excel((R)) spreadsheet was implemented with the use of Solver((R)) and visual basic functions. The performance of the BA method in estimating pharmacokinetic parameter values was evaluated by comparing the parameter values obtained to a standard modelling software program, NONMEM, using simulated data. The results show that the BA method was reasonably precise and provided low bias in estimating fixed and random effect parameters for both one- and two-compartment models. The pharmacokinetic parameters estimated from the BA method were similar to those of NONMEM estimation.

Random vibration of the functionally graded laminates in thermal environments

This work deals with the random free vibration of functionally graded laminates with general boundary conditions and subjected to a temperature change, taking into account the randomness in a number of independent input variables such as Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio and thermal expansion coefficient of each constituent material. Based on third-order shear deformation theory, the mixed-type formulation and a semi-analytical approach are employed to derive the standard eigenvalue problem in terms of deflection, mid-plane rotations and stress function. A mean-centered first-order perturbation technique is adopted to obtain the second-order statistics of vibration frequencies. A detailed parametric study is conducted, and extensive numerical results are presented in both tabular and graphical forms for laminated plates that contain functionally graded material which is made of aluminum and zirconia, showing the effects of scattering in thermo-clastic material constants, temperature change, edge support condition, side-to-thickness ratio, and plate aspect ratio on the stochastic characteristics of natural frequencies. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Emulation of random output simulators

Computer models, or simulators, are widely used in a range of scientific fields to aid understanding of the processes involved and make predictions. Such simulators are often computationally demanding and are thus not amenable to statistical analysis. Emulators provide a statistical approximation, or surrogate, for the simulators accounting for the additional approximation uncertainty. This thesis develops a novel sequential screening method to reduce the set of simulator variables considered during emulation. This screening method is shown to require fewer simulator evaluations than existing approaches. Utilising the lower dimensional active variable set simplifies subsequent emulation analysis. For random output, or stochastic, simulators the output dispersion, and thus variance, is typically a function of the inputs. This work extends the emulator framework to account for such heteroscedasticity by constructing two new heteroscedastic Gaussian process representations and proposes an experimental design technique to optimally learn the model parameters. The design criterion is an extension of Fisher information to heteroscedastic variance models. Replicated observations are efficiently handled in both the design and model inference stages. Through a series of simulation experiments on both synthetic and real world simulators, the emulators inferred on optimal designs with replicated observations are shown to outperform equivalent models inferred on space-filling replicate-free designs in terms of both model parameter uncertainty and predictive variance.

Solvable model for distribution networks on random graphs

We propose a simple model that captures the salient properties of distribution networks, and study the possible occurrence of blackouts, i.e., sudden failings of large portions of such networks. The model is defined on a random graph of finite connectivity. The nodes of the graph represent hubs of the network, while the edges of the graph represent the links of the distribution network. Both, the nodes and the edges carry dynamical two state variables representing the functioning or dysfunctional state of the node or link in question. We describe a dynamical process in which the breakdown of a link or node is triggered when the level of maintenance it receives falls below a given threshold. This form of dynamics can lead to situations of catastrophic breakdown, if levels of maintenance are themselves dependent on the functioning of the net, once maintenance levels locally fall below a critical threshold due to fluctuations. We formulate conditions under which such systems can be analyzed in terms of thermodynamic equilibrium techniques, and under these conditions derive a phase diagram characterizing the collective behavior of the system, given its model parameters. The phase diagram is confirmed qualitatively and quantitatively by simulations on explicit realizations of the graph, thus confirming the validity of our approach. © 2007 The American Physical Society.

Parameterized Link Functions in Generalized Linear Random Effect Models: a Case Study on Breast Cancer Treatment

In non-linear random effects some attention has been very recently devoted to the analysis ofsuitable transformation of the response variables separately (Taylor 1996) or not (Oberg and Davidian 2000) from the transformations of the covariates and, as far as we know, no investigation has been carried out on the choice of link function in such models. In our study we consider the use of a random effect model when a parameterized family of links (Aranda-Ordaz 1981, Prentice 1996, Pregibon 1980, Stukel 1988 and Czado 1997) is introduced. We point out the advantages and the drawbacks associated with the choice of this data-driven kind of modeling. Difficulties in the interpretation of regression parameters, and therefore in understanding the influence of covariates, as well as problems related to loss of efficiency of estimates and overfitting, are discussed. A case study on radiotherapy usage in breast cancer treatment is discussed.

Extremes of Bivariate Geometric Variables with Application to Bisexual Branching Processes

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60G70.

Recent Results for Supercritical Controlled Branching Processes with Control Random Functions

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60J80, 60F05

Relationship between religiosity, religious coping and socio-demographic variables among out-patients with depression or diabetes mellitus in Enugu, Nigeria.

Background: Religion is a powerful coping strategy. Diabetes and depression are common conditions in our environment that induce psychological distress, thus requiring coping for better outcome. Studies indicate that increased religiosity is associated with better outcome in clinical and general populations. Therefore, studies of the distribution of religiosity and religious coping among these populations are essential to improve outcome. Objectives: To assess the association between religiosity, religious coping in depression and diabetes mellitus, and selected sociodemographic variables (age, gender and occupational status). Methods:Using simple random sampling we recruited 112 participants with diabetes and an equal number with depression consecutively, matching for gender. Religiosity was determined using religious orientation scale (revised), religious coping with brief religious coping scale and socio-demographic variables with a socio-demographic questionnaire. Results: Intrinsic religiosity was greater among older people with depression than among older people with diabetes(t=5.02,p<0.001); no significant difference among young people with depression and diabetes(t=1.47,p=0.15).Positive religious coping was greater among older people with depression than among older people with diabetes(t=2.31,p=0.02); no difference among young people with depression and diabetes(t=0.80,p=0.43). Females with depression had higher intrinsic religiosity scores than males with depression(t=3.85,p<0.001); no difference in intrinsic religiosity between females and males with diabetes(t=0.99,p=0.32).Positive religious coping was greater among participants with diabetes in the low occupational status(t=2.96,p<0.001) than those in the high occupational status. Conclusion: Religion is indeed a reliable coping method, most commonly used by the elderly and females with depression. Positive religious coping is more common among diabetic patients who are in the low occupational status.

[impact Variables On The Decline In Infant Mortality In The State Of São Paulo, Brazil: 1998-2008].

This is an ecological, analytical and retrospective study comprising the 645 municipalities in the State of São Paulo, the scope of which was to determine the relationship between socioeconomic, demographic variables and the model of care in relation to infant mortality rates in the period from 1998 to 2008. The ratio of average annual change for each indicator per stratum coverage was calculated. Infant mortality was analyzed according to the model for repeated measures over time, adjusted for the following correction variables: the city's population, proportion of Family Health Programs (PSFs) deployed, proportion of Growth Acceleration Programs (PACs) deployed, per capita GDP and SPSRI (São Paulo social responsibility index). The analysis was performed by generalized linear models, considering the gamma distribution. Multiple comparisons were performed with the likelihood ratio with chi-square approximate distribution, considering a significance level of 5%. There was a decrease in infant mortality over the years (p < 0.05), with no significant difference from 2004 to 2008 (p > 0.05). The proportion of PSFs deployed (p < 0.0001) and per capita GDP (p < 0.0001) were significant in the model. The decline of infant mortality in this period was influenced by the growth of per capita GDP and PSFs.

Reduced Insulin Clearance And Lower Insulin-degrading Enzyme Expression In The Liver Might Contribute To The Thrifty Phenotype Of Protein-restricted Mice.

Nutrient restriction during the early stages of life usually leads to alterations in glucose homeostasis, mainly insulin secretion and sensitivity, increasing the risk of metabolic disorders in adulthood. Despite growing evidence regarding the importance of insulin clearance during glucose homeostasis in health and disease, no information exists about this process in malnourished animals. Thus, in the present study, we aimed to determine the effect of a nutrient-restricted diet on insulin clearance using a model in which 30-d-old C57BL/6 mice were exposed to a protein-restricted diet for 14 weeks. After this period, we evaluated many metabolic variables and extracted pancreatic islet, liver, gastrocnemius muscle (GCK) and white adipose tissue samples from the control (normal-protein diet) and restricted (low-protein diet, LP) mice. Insulin concentrations were determined using RIA and protein expression and phosphorylation by Western blot analysis. The LP mice exhibited lower body weight, glycaemia, and insulinaemia, increased glucose tolerance and altered insulin dynamics after the glucose challenge. The improved glucose tolerance could partially be explained by an increase in insulin sensitivity through the phosphorylation of the insulin receptor/protein kinase B and AMP-activated protein kinase/acetyl-CoA carboxylase in the liver, whereas the changes in insulin dynamics could be attributed to reduced insulin secretion coupled with reduced insulin clearance and lower insulin-degrading enzyme (IDE) expression in the liver and GCK. In summary, protein-restricted mice not only produce and secrete less insulin, but also remove and degrade less insulin. This phenomenon has the double benefit of sparing insulin while prolonging and potentiating its effects, probably due to the lower expression of IDE in the liver, possibly with long-term consequences.

[factors Associated With Satisfaction With Life Among Elderly Caregivers And Non-caregivers].

This article seeks to investigate associations between satisfaction with life and sociodemographic variables, health conditions, functionality, social involvement and social support among elderly caregivers and non-caregivers, as well as between satisfaction and the intensity of stress in the caregiver group. A sample of 338 caregivers was selected according to two items of the Brazilian version of the Elders Life Stress Inventory. A comparison-group of elderly non-caregivers was selected at random, with a similar gender, age and income profile. Data were derived from self-reported questionnaires and scales. Elderly caregivers with low levels of satisfaction and high levels of stress revealed more symptoms of insomnia, fatigue, diseases and worse IADL performance. Those with greater satisfaction and less stress revealed a good level of social support. Insomnia, depression and fatigue were associated with low satisfaction among caregivers, and with fatigue, depression and low social support among non-caregivers. It was considered relevant that instrumental, psychological and informative support can improve the quality of life and the quality of care provided by elderly caregivers, especially if they are affected by unfavorable health and psychosocial conditions and low satisfaction with life.

Biased Random-key Genetic Algorithms For The Winner Determination Problem In Combinatorial Auctions.

Abstract In this paper, we address the problem of picking a subset of bids in a general combinatorial auction so as to maximize the overall profit using the first-price model. This winner determination problem assumes that a single bidding round is held to determine both the winners and prices to be paid. We introduce six variants of biased random-key genetic algorithms for this problem. Three of them use a novel initialization technique that makes use of solutions of intermediate linear programming relaxations of an exact mixed integer-linear programming model as initial chromosomes of the population. An experimental evaluation compares the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms with the standard mixed linear integer programming formulation, a specialized exact algorithm, and the best-performing heuristics proposed for this problem. The proposed algorithms are competitive and offer strong results, mainly for large-scale auctions.