A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - I. Analysis across districts

Historically, few articles have addressed the use of district level mill production data for analysing the effect of varietal change on sugarcane productivity trends. This appears to be due to lack of compiled district data sets and appropriate methods by which to analyse these data. Recently, varietal data on tonnes of sugarcane per hectare (TCH), sugar content (CCS), and their product, tonnes of sugar content per hectare (TSH) on a district basis, have been compiled. This study was conducted to develop a methodology for regular analysis of such data from mill districts to assess productivity trends over time, accounting for variety and variety x environment interaction effects for 3 mill districts (Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully) from 1958 to 1995. Restricted maximum likelihood methodology was used to analyse the district level data and best linear unbiased predictors for random effects, and best linear unbiased estimates for fixed effects were computed in a mixed model analysis. In the combined analysis over districts, Q124 was the top ranking variety for TCH, and Q120 was top ranking for both CCS and TSH. Overall production for TCH increased over the 38-year period investigated. Some of this increase can be attributed to varietal improvement, although the predictors for TCH have shown little progress since the introduction of Q99 in 1976. Although smaller gains have been made in varietal improvement for CCS, overall production for CCS decreased over the 38 years due to non-varietal factors. Varietal improvement in TSH appears to have peaked in the mid-1980s. Overall production for TSH remained stable over time due to the varietal increase in TCH and the non-varietal decrease in CCS.

Estimating economic relationships subject to firm- and time-varying equality and inequality constraints

Applied econometricians often fail to impose economic regularity constraints in the exact form economic theory prescribes. We show how the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Theorem and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can be used to rigorously impose time- and firm-varying equality and inequality constraints. To illustrate the technique we estimate a system of translog input demand functions subject to all the constraints implied by economic theory, including observation-varying symmetry and concavity constraints. Results are presented in the form of characteristics of the estimated posterior distributions of functions of the parameters. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change

We investigate the size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change. This involves examining whether the size results are sensitive to both the number of individual frequencies estimated and the spectral shape adopted under the null hypothesis. The power tests examine whether the test has good power to detect shifts in both spectral position (variance) and spectral shape (autocovariance structure).

Microevolution in island forms: the roles of drift and directional selection in morphological divergence of a passerine bird

Theory predicts that in small isolated populations random genetic drift can lead to phenotypic divergence; however this prediction has rarely been tested quantitatively in natural populations. Here we utilize natural repeated island colonization events by members of the avian species complex, Zosterops lateralis, to assess whether or not genetic drift alone is an adequate explanation for the observed patterns of microevolutionary divergence in morphology. Morphological and molecular genetic characteristics of island and mainland populations are compared to test three predictions of drift theory: (1) that the pattern of morphological change is idiosyncratic to each island; (2) that there is concordance between morphological and neutral genetic shifts across island populations; and (3) for populations whose time of colonization is known, that the rate of morphological change is sufficiently slow to be accounted for solely by genetic drift. Our results are not consistent with these predictions. First, the direction of size shifts was consistently towards larger size, suggesting the action of a nonrandom process. Second, patterns of morphological divergence among recently colonized populations showed little concordance with divergence in neutral genetic characters. Third, rate tests of morphological change showed that effective population sizes were not small enough for random processes alone to account for the magnitude of microevolutionary change. Altogether, these three lines of evidence suggest that drift alone is not an adequate explanation of morphological differentiation in recently colonized island Zosterops and therefore we suggest that the observed microevolutionary changes are largely a result of directional natural selection.

Patterns of change and stability in the gender division of household labour in Australia, 1986-1997

Recent research in Australia and overseas has suggested that we are witnessing a convergence of men's and women's time on domestic labour activities. But there is disagreement about whether this is due to women reducing their time on housework or men increasing their time on housework. This article addresses these issues using national survey data collected in Australia in 1986, 1993 and 1997. The results show some changes in the proportional responsibilities of men and women in the home with men reporting a greater share of traditional indoor activities. But overall both men and women are spending less time on housework. In particular, women's time on housework has declined by six hours per week since 1986. Hence, while the gender gap between men's and women's involvement in the home is getting smaller, it is not the result of men increasing their share of the load, but is due to the large decline in women's time spent on domestic labour. There is also evidence of change in the relationship. between paid and unpaid work for women. Women's hours of,paid labour had a greater impact on their involvement in domestic labour in 1997 compared to a decade earlier. The article concludes that women's increased labour force involvement in combination with changing patterns and styles, of consumption is leading to some changes in the gender-division:of household labour, but not in the direction anticipated by earlier commentators on the domestic division of labour.

Anticipation of a non-aversive reaction time task facilitates the blink startle reflex

The conditions under which blink startle facilitation can be found in anticipation of a reaction time task were investigated to resolve inconsistent findings across previous studies. Four groups of participants (n = 64) were presented with two visual stimuli, one predicting a reaction time task (S+) and the second presented alone (S-). Participants were asked to make a speeded response to the offset of the S+ (S1 paradigm) or were asked to respond to a tactile stimulus presented at the offset of the S+ (S1-S2 paradigm). Half of the participants in each paradigm condition received performance feedback. Overall, blink latency shortening and magnitude facilitation were larger during S+ than during S-. More detailed analyses, however, found these differences to be reliable only in the Feedback conditions. Ratings of S+ pleasantness did not change across the experiment. Electrodermal responses to S+ were larger than to S- in all groups with differential electrodermal responding emerging earlier in the S1 paradigm. Taken together, the data support the notion that startle facilitation can occur during non-aversive Pavlovian conditioning. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementing the quantum random walk

Recently, several groups have investigated quantum analogues of random walk algorithms, both on a line and on a circle. It has been found that the quantum versions have markedly different features to the classical versions. Namely, the variance on the line, and the mixing time on the circle increase quadratically faster in the quantum versions as compared to the classical versions. Here, we propose a scheme to implement the quantum random walk on a line and on a circle in an ion trap quantum computer. With current ion trap technology, the number of steps that could be experimentally implemented will be relatively small. However, we show how the enhanced features of these walks could be observed experimentally. In the limit of strong decoherence, the quantum random walk tends to the classical random walk. By measuring the degree to which the walk remains quantum, '' this algorithm could serve as an important benchmarking protocol for ion trap quantum computers.

An atomistic simulation of solid state sintering using Monte Carlo methods

This paper presents results on the simulation of the solid state sintering of copper wires using Monte Carlo techniques based on elements of lattice theory and cellular automata. The initial structure is superimposed onto a triangular, two-dimensional lattice, where each lattice site corresponds to either an atom or vacancy. The number of vacancies varies with the simulation temperature, while a cluster of vacancies is a pore. To simulate sintering, lattice sites are picked at random and reoriented in terms of an atomistic model governing mass transport. The probability that an atom has sufficient energy to jump to a vacant lattice site is related to the jump frequency, and hence the diffusion coefficient, while the probability that an atomic jump will be accepted is related to the change in energy of the system as a result of the jump, as determined by the change in the number of nearest neighbours. The jump frequency is also used to relate model time, measured in Monte Carlo Steps, to the actual sintering time. The model incorporates bulk, grain boundary and surface diffusion terms and includes vacancy annihilation on the grain boundaries. The predictions of the model were found to be consistent with experimental data, both in terms of the microstructural evolution and in terms of the sintering time. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Evolution of additive and nonadditive genetic variance in development time along a cline in Drosophila serrata

Latitudinal clines provide natural systems that may allow the effect of natural selection on the genetic variance to be determined. Ten clinal populations of Drosophila serrata collected from the eastern coast of Australia were used to examine clinal patterns in the trait mean and genetic variance of the life-history trait egg-to-adult development time. Development time significantly lengthened from tropical areas to temperate areas. The additive genetic variance for development time in each population was not associated with latitude but was associated with the population mean development time. Additive genetic variance tended to be larger in populations with more extreme development times and appeared to be consistent with allele frequency change. In contrast, the nonadditive genetic variance was not associated with the population mean but was associated with latitude. Levels of nonadditive genetic variance were greatest in the region of the cline where the gradient in the change in mean was greatest, consistent with Barton's (1999) conjecture that the generation of linkage disequilibrium may become an important component of the genetic variance in systems with a spatially varying optimum.

Vicarious dissonance: Attitude change from the inconsistency of others

Three studies support the vicarious dissonance hypothesis that individuals change their attitudes when witnessing members of important groups engage in inconsistent behavior. Study 1, in which participants observed an actor in an induced-compliance paradigm, documented that students who identified with their college supported an issue more after hearing an ingroup member make a counterattitudinal speech in favor of that issue. In Study 2, vicarious dissonance occurred even when participants did not hear a speech, and attitude change was highest when the speaker was known to disagree with the issue. Study 3 showed that speaker choice and aversive consequences moderated vicarious dissonance, and demonstrated that vicarious discomfort-the discomfort observers imagine feeling if in an actor's place-was attenuated after participants expressed their revised attitudes.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Evidence and information for health policy: a decade of change

Over the past decade or so, there has been increasing demand for greater clarity about the major causes of disease and injury, how these differentially affect populations, and how they are changing. In part, this demand has been motivated by resource constraints and a realisation that better health is possible with more informed allocation of resources. At the same time, there has been a change in the way population health and its determinants are quantified, with a much closer integration of the quantitative population sciences (such as epidemiology, demography and health economics) to strengthen and broaden the evidence base for healthcare policy.

Detection of Change in Fluorescence Between Reactive Cyan and the Yellow Fluorophores Using a-SiC:H Multilayer Transducers

The transducer consists of a semiconductor device based on two stacked -i-n heterostructures that were designed to detect the emissions of the fluorescence resonance energy transfer between fluorophores in the cyan (470 nm) and yellow (588 nm) range of the spectrum. This research represents a preliminary study on the use of such wavelength-sensitive devices as photodetectors for this kind of application. The device was characterized through optoelectronic measurements concerning spectral response measurements under different electrical and optical biasing conditions. To simulate the fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) pairs, a chromatic time-dependent combination of cyan and yellow wavelengths was applied to the device. The generated photocurrent was measured under reverse and forward bias to read out the output photocurrent signal. A different wavelength-biasing light was also superimposed. Results show that under reverse bias, the photocurrent signal presents four separate levels, each one assigned to the different wavelength combinations of the FRET pairs. If a blue background is superimposed, the yellow channel is enhanced and the cyan suppressed, while under red irradiation, the opposite behavior occurs. So, under suitable biasing light, the transducer is able to detect separately the cyan and yellow fluorescence pairs. An electrical model, supported by a numerical simulation, supports the transduction mechanism of the device.

Real-time rheology of actively growing bacteria

The population growth of a Staphylococcus aureus culture, an active colloidal system of spherical cells, was followed by rheological measurements, under steady-state and oscillatory shear flows. We observed a rich viscoelastic behavior as a consequence of the bacteria activity, namely, of their multiplication and density-dependent aggregation properties. In the early stages of growth (lag and exponential phases), the viscosity increases by about a factor of 20, presenting several drops and full recoveries. This allows us to evoke the existence of a percolation phenomenon. Remarkably, as the bacteria reach their late phase of development, in which the population stabilizes, the viscosity returns close to its initial value. Most probably, this is caused by a change in the bacteria physiological activity and in particular, by the decrease of their adhesion properties. The viscous and elastic moduli exhibit power-law behaviors compatible with the "soft glassy materials" model, whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.87.030701.

Effects of sulphurization time on Cu2ZnSnS4 absorbers and thin films solar cells obtained from metallic precursors

We report the results of a study of the sulphurization time effects on Cu2ZnSnS4 absorbers and thin film solar cells prepared from dc-sputtered tackedmetallic precursors. Three different time intervals, 10 min, 30min and 60 min, at maximum sulphurization temperature were considered. The effects of this parameter' change were studied both on the absorber layer properties and on the final solar cell performance. The composition, structure, morphology and thicknesses of the CZTS layers were analyzed. The electrical characterization of the absorber layer was carried out by measuring the transversal electrical resistance of the samples as a function of temperature. This study shows an increase of the conductivity activation energy from 10 meV to 54meV for increasing sulphurization time from 10min to 60min. The solar cells were built with the following structure: SLG/Mo/CZTS/CdS/i-ZnO/ZnO:Al/Ni:Al grid. Several ac response equivalent circuit models were tested to fit impedance measurements. The best results were used to extract the device series and shunt resistances and capacitances. Absorber layer's electronic properties were also determined using the Mott–Schottky method. The results show a decrease of the average acceptor doping density and built-in voltage, from 2.0 1017 cm−3 to 6.5 1015 cm−3 and from 0.71 V to 0.51 V, respectively, with increasing sulphurization time. These results also show an increase of the depletion region width from approximately 90 nm–250 nm.