Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014 -- We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective -- We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks -- In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions

SVR-GARCH com misturas de kernels gaussianos

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de Administração, Programa de Pós-graduação em Administração, 2016.

Attribute-based authenticated key exchange

We introduce the concept of attribute-based authenticated key exchange (AB-AKE) within the framework of ciphertext policy attribute-based systems. A notion of AKE-security for AB-AKE is presented based on the security models for group key exchange protocols and also taking into account the security requirements generally considered in the ciphertext policy attribute-based setting. We also extend the paradigm of hybrid encryption to the ciphertext policy attribute-based encryption schemes. A new primitive called encapsulation policy attribute-based key encapsulation mechanism (EP-AB-KEM) is introduced and a notion of chosen ciphertext security is de�ned for EP-AB-KEMs. We propose an EP-AB-KEM from an existing attribute-based encryption scheme and show that it achieves chosen ciphertext security in the generic group and random oracle models. We present a generic one-round AB-AKE protocol that satis�es our AKE-security notion. The protocol is generically constructed from any EP-AB-KEM that satis�es chosen ciphertext security. Instantiating the generic AB-AKE protocol with our EP-AB-KEM will result in a concrete one-round AB-AKE protocol also secure in the generic group and random oracle models.

Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

Migration of breast cancer cells : understanding the roles of volume exclusion and cell-to-cell adhesion

We study MCF-7 breast cancer cell movement in a transwell apparatus. Various experimental conditions lead to a variety of monotone and nonmonotone responses which are difficult to interpret. We anticipate that the experimental results could be caused by cell-to-cell adhesion or volume exclusion. Without any modeling, it is impossible to understand the relative roles played by these two mechanisms. A lattice-based exclusion process random-walk model incorporating agent-to-agent adhesion is applied to the experimental system. Our combined experimental and modeling approach shows that a low value of cell-to-cell adhesion strength provides the best explanation of the experimental data suggesting that volume exclusion plays a more important role than cell-to-cell adhesion. This combined experimental and modeling study gives insight into the cell-level details and design of transwell assays.

Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

A small molecule that walks non-directionally along a track without external intervention

Charge of the light brigade: A molecule is able to walk back and forth upon a five-foothold pentaethylenimine track without external intervention. The 1D random walk is highly processive (mean step number 530) and exchange takes place between adjacent amine groups in a stepwise fashion. The walker performs a simple task whilst walking: quenching of the fluorescence of an anthracene group sited at one end of the track. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with hallux valgus : a systematic review

Objective Factors associated with the development of hallux valgus (HV) are multifactorial and remain unclear. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate characteristics of foot structure and footwear associated with HV. Design Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, and CINAHL) were searched to December 2010. Cross-sectional studies with a valid definition of HV and a non-HV comparison group were included. Two independent investigators quality rated all included papers. Effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated (standardized mean differences (SMDs) for continuous data and risk ratios (RRs) for dichotomous data). Where studies were homogeneous, pooling of SMDs was conducted using random effects models. Results A total of 37 papers (34 unique studies) were quality rated. After exclusion of studies without reported measurement reliability for associated factors, data were extracted and analysed from 16 studies reporting results for 45 different factors. Significant factors included: greater first intermetatarsal angle (pooled SMD = 1.5, CI: 0.88–2.1), longer first metatarsal (pooled SMD = 1.0, CI: 0.48–1.6), round first metatarsal head (RR: 3.1–5.4), and lateral sesamoid displacement (RR: 5.1–5.5). Results for clinical factors (e.g., first ray mobility, pes planus, footwear) were less conclusive regarding their association with HV. Conclusions Although conclusions regarding causality cannot be made from cross-sectional studies, this systematic review highlights important factors to monitor in HV assessment and management. Further studies with rigorous methodology are warranted to investigate clinical factors associated with HV.

Moments of action provide insight into critical times for advection–diffusion–reaction processes

In 2010 Berezhkovskii and coworkers introduced the concept of local accumulation time (LAT) as a finite measure of the time required for the transient solution of a reaction diffusion equation to effectively reach steady state(Biophys J. 99, L59 (2010); Phys Rev E. 83, 051906 (2011)). Berezhkovskii’s approach is a particular application of the concept of mean action time (MAT) that was introduced previously by McNabb (IMA J Appl Math. 47, 193 (1991)). Here, we generalize these previous results by presenting a framework to calculate the MAT, as well as the higher moments, which we call the moments of action. The second moment is the variance of action time; the third moment is related to the skew of action time, and so on. We consider a general transition from some initial condition to an associated steady state for a one–dimensional linear advection–diffusion–reaction partial differential equation(PDE). Our results indicate that it is possible to solve for the moments of action exactly without requiring the transient solution of the PDE. We present specific examples that highlight potential weaknesses of previous studies that have considered the MAT alone without considering higher moments. Finally, we also provide a meaningful interpretation of the moments of action by presenting simulation results from a discrete random walk model together with some analysis of the particle lifetime distribution. This work shows that the moments of action are identical to the moments of the particle lifetime distribution for certain transitions.

Generator coherency and area detection in large power systems

This paper provides a new general approach for defining coherent generators in power systems based on the coherency in low frequency inter-area modes. The disturbance is considered to be distributed in the network by applying random load changes which is the random walk representation of real loads instead of a single fault and coherent generators are obtained by spectrum analysis of the generators velocity variations. In order to find the coherent areas and their borders in the inter-connected networks, non-generating buses are assigned to each group of coherent generator using similar coherency detection techniques. The method is evaluated on two test systems and coherent generators and areas are obtained for different operating points to provide a more accurate grouping approach which is valid across a range of realistic operating points of the system.

Design and interpretation of cell trajectory assays

Cell trajectory data is often reported in the experimental cell biology literature to distinguish between different types of cell migration. Unfortunately, there is no accepted protocol for designing or interpreting such experiments and this makes it difficult to quantitatively compare different published data sets and to understand how changes in experimental design influence our ability to interpret different experiments. Here, we use an individual based mathematical model to simulate the key features of a cell trajectory experiment. This shows that our ability to correctly interpret trajectory data is extremely sensitive to the geometry and timing of the experiment, the degree of motility bias and the number of experimental replicates. We show that cell trajectory experiments produce data that is most reliable when the experiment is performed in a quasi 1D geometry with a large number of identically{prepared experiments conducted over a relatively short time interval rather than few trajectories recorded over particularly long time intervals.

A meta-analysis of pigmentary characteristics, sun sensitivity, freckling and melanocytic nevi and risk of basal cell carcinoma of the skin

Objective: To calculate pooled risk estimates of the association between pigmentary characteristics and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) of the skin. Methods: We searched three electronic databases and reviewed the reference lists of the retrieved articles until July 2012 to identify eligible epidemiologic studies. Eligible studies were those published in between 1965 and July 2012 that permitted quantitative assessment of the association between histologically-confirmed BCC and any of the following characteristics: hair colour, eye colour, skin colour, skin phototype, tanning and burning ability, and presence of freckling or melanocytic nevi. We included 29 studies from 2236 initially identified. We calculated summary odds ratios (ORs) using weighted averages of the log OR, using random effects models. Results: We found strongest associations with red hair (OR 2.02; 95% CI: 1.68, 2.44), fair skin colour (OR 2.11; 95% CI: 1.56, 2.86), and having skin that burns and never tans (OR 2.03; 95% CI: 1.73, 2.38). All other factors had weaker but positive associations with BCC, with the exception of freckling of the face in adulthood which showed no association. Conclusions: Although most studies report risk estimates that are in the same direction, there is significant heterogeneity in the size of the estimates. The associations were quite modest and remarkably similar, with ORs between about 1.5 and 2.5 for the highest risk level for each factor. Given the public health impact of BCC, this meta-analysis will make a valuable contribution to our understanding of BCC.

Incidence of unilateral arm lymphoedema after breast cancer : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background The body of evidence related to breast-cancer-related lymphoedema incidence and risk factors has substantially grown and improved in quality over the past decade. We assessed the incidence of unilateral arm lymphoedema after breast cancer and explored the evidence available for lymphoedema risk factors. Methods We searched Academic Search Elite, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (clinical trials), and Medline for research articles that assessed the incidence or prevalence of, or risk factors for, arm lymphoedema after breast cancer, published between January 1, 2000, and June 30, 2012. We extracted incidence data and calculated corresponding exact binomial 95% CIs. We used random effects models to calculate a pooled overall estimate of lymphoedema incidence, with subgroup analyses to assess the effect of different study designs, countries of study origin, diagnostic methods, time since diagnosis, and extent of axillary surgery. We assessed risk factors and collated them into four levels of evidence, depending on consistency of findings and quality and quantity of studies contributing to findings. Findings 72 studies met the inclusion criteria for the assessment of lymphoedema incidence, giving a pooled estimate of 16·6% (95% CI 13·6–20·2). Our estimate was 21·4% (14·9–29·8) when restricted to data from prospective cohort studies (30 studies). The incidence of arm lymphoedema seemed to increase up to 2 years after diagnosis or surgery of breast cancer (24 studies with time since diagnosis or surgery of 12 to <24 months; 18·9%, 14·2–24·7), was highest when assessed by more than one diagnostic method (nine studies; 28·2%, 11·8–53·5), and was about four times higher in women who had an axillary-lymph-node dissection (18 studies; 19·9%, 13·5–28·2) than it was in those who had sentinel-node biopsy (18 studies; 5·6%, 6·1–7·9). 29 studies met the inclusion criteria for the assessment of risk factors. Risk factors that had a strong level of evidence were extensive surgery (ie, axillary-lymph-node dissection, greater number of lymph nodes dissected, mastectomy) and being overweight or obese. Interpretation Our findings suggest that more than one in five women who survive breast cancer will develop arm lymphoedema. A clear need exists for improved understanding of contributing risk factors, as well as of prevention and management strategies to reduce the individual and public health burden of this disabling and distressing disorder.

Colonizing while migrating : how do individual enteric neural crest cells behave?

Background Directed cell migration is essential for normal development. In most of the migratory cell populations that have been analysed in detail to date, all of the cells migrate as a collective from one location to another. However, there are also migratory cell populations that must populate the areas through which they migrate, and thus some cells get left behind while others advance. Very little is known about how individual cells behave to achieve concomitant directional migration and population of the migratory route. We examined the behavior of enteric neural crest-derived cells (ENCCs), which must both advance caudally to reach the anal end and populate each gut region. Results The behaviour of individual ENCCs was examined using live imaging and mice in which ENCCs express a photoconvertible protein. We show that individual ENCCs exhibit very variable directionalities and speed; as the migratory wavefront of ENCCs advances caudally, each gut region is populated primarily by some ENCCs migrating non-directionally. After populating each region, ENCCs remain migratory for at least 24 hours. Endothelin receptor type B (EDNRB) signaling is known to be essential for the normal advance of the ENCC population. We now show that perturbation of EDNRB principally affects individual ENCC speed rather than directionality. The trajectories of solitary ENCCs, which occur transiently at the wavefront, were consistent with an unbiased random walk and so cell-cell contact is essential for directional migration. ENCCs migrate in close association with neurites. We showed that although ENCCs often use neurites as substrates, ENCCs lead the way, neurites are not required for chain formation and neurite growth is more directional than the migration of ENCCs as a whole. Conclusions Each gut region is initially populated by sub-populations of ENCCs migrating non-directionally, rather than stopping. This might provide a mechanism for ensuring a uniform density of ENCCs along the growing gut.