Samhällets roll i besöksnäringens utveckling

Studien föranleds av den nya konkurrenslagstiftningen som påverkar gränsdragningen mellan privat och offentligt engagemang inom turismen. I studien görs ett försök att förstå den historiska utvecklingen utifrån institutionell teori. Att över tid följa hur turismen från att ha legat utanför samhällets intressesfär till att i allt högre grad inkluderas i och bli föremål för samhällsåtaganden till att i betydande utsträckning åter överflyttas till den privata sfären blir enligt författarnas mening begripligare om förändringsförloppet förstås i den referensram som den institutionella teorin erbjuder. Den pendelrörelse som på detta sätt kan urskiljas beträffande gränsdragningen mellan privat och offentligt är också en del i hur man skall förstå hur synen på konkurrensbetingelser inte är statisk utan i hög grad konstruerad och framförhandlad från tid till annan. Men det som gälller tid tycks också ha en geografisk dimension där vad som anses tillåtet i en del av landet inte uppfattas så på ett annat ställe. Det som uppfattas som ett juridiskt spörsmål i förstone vilar i realiteten i en komplex kontext med ingredienser av historia, ekonomi och geografi.

Nätverkssamarbete och destinationsutveckling : En jämförelse av ett storskaligt och ett småskaligt turismutvecklingsprojekt

Hållbar destinationsutveckling kräver samarbete mellan offentliga och privata aktörer. Denövergripande forskningsfrågan som genomsyrat arbetet med denna rapport handlar om hursamhällets resurser bäst kan användas för att utveckla turistdestinationer. Projekten NordicSnowmobile Center och Projekt Entreprenörsutbildning Småland/Kronoberg, vilka har finansieratsmed olika mycket offentliga medel, utvärderas i denna rapport. Resultaten från utvärderingenutgör sedan grund för diskussion och analys av destinationsutveckling. Rapporten redogörockså för följeforskning genomförd på Projekt Nordic Snowmobile Center (NSC) mellan åren2004-2007.Vi konstaterar att båda projekten uppfyller sina huvudsyften. Projekt NSC kan däremot inteanses ha uppfyllt alla sina delmål. Förklaringarna till detta står att finna i faktorer somförankringen av projektets mål och delmål i projektområdet; en asymmetri i budgeterade investeringskostnadermellan projektets delområden; institutionella faktorer såsom projektadministrationsamt redovisningsprinciper hos EU-sekretariat och de andra offentliga finansiärerna.Följeforskningen av Projekt NSC identifierade dessutom ett antal faktorer som kan bidra till ökadförståelse för hur ett projekt av denna storlek bör organiseras och ledas samt vilka stöd som ettprojekt av den här typen kräver för att åstadkomma destinationsutveckling.

How does the use of different road networks effect the optimal location of facilities in rural areas?

The p-median problem is often used to locate P service facilities in a geographically distributed population. Important for the performance of such a model is the distance measure. Distance measure can vary if the accuracy of the road network varies. The rst aim in this study is to analyze how the optimal location solutions vary, using the p-median model, when the road network is alternated. It is hard to nd an exact optimal solution for p-median problems. Therefore, in this study two heuristic solutions are applied, simulating annealing and a classic heuristic. The secondary aim is to compare the optimal location solutions using dierent algorithms for large p-median problem. The investigation is conducted by the means of a case study in a rural region with an asymmetrically distributed population, Dalecarlia. The study shows that the use of more accurate road networks gives better solutions for optimal location, regardless what algorithm that is used and regardless how many service facilities that is optimized for. It is also shown that the simulated annealing algorithm not just is much faster than the classic heuristic used here, but also in most cases gives better location solutions.

Forskningscirkeln en arbetsform för att utveckla skolan mot en lärande organisationlärande organisation?

När samhället blir mera komplext ställs generellt sett allt större krav på enskilda individer och organisationer. Detta innebär också att t ex kraven på skolan som organisation ökar i motsva-rande grad. Om förändringar i skolan skall lyckas måste lärarna involveras (Hargreaves, 1998). Förändringen måste helt enkelt utgå från lärarna själva. “It is teachers who, in the end, will change the world of the school by understanding it“ (Lawrence Stenhouse, citerad i Egerbladh & Tiller, 1998). För många lärare är kärnpunkten när verksamheten skall förändras om den går att genomföra i praktiken. På det sätt som lärare förstår hur skolan fungerar kan även antas ha betydelse för hur de utför sina arbetsuppgifter. Det är mot en sådan bakgrund som s k forskningscirklar, som ett forum för ett möte mellan lärare och forskare, blir av intresse. Kan då också s k lärande organisationer innehålla forskningscirklar som en möjlig arbetsform för att både förstå och att utveckla skolans verksamhet i praktiken? Med utgångspunkt från den bakgrund som skisserats upp är syftet med detta paper sålunda att diskutera: a) Under vilka förutsättningar är det möjligt att tala om skolan som en lärande organisa-tion?b) Är det möjligt att betrakta forskningscirkeln som ett, av flera tänkbara, medel för att utveckla skolan mot en lärande organisation?Jag utgår från två av Senges (1995) huvudkriterier, personlig utveckling (Personal Mastery) och team-lärande, för att diskutera några aspekter av de frågeställningar som anges i syftet. För att ge en mer fullständig bild skulle det självfallet ha varit att föredra att de tre övriga kriterierna som Senge använder hade kunnat behandlas på ett motsvarande sätt. Jag väljer dock bort dessa då det inte finns möjlighet att klara av en sådan uppgift inom den begränsade ram som ett paper av den här typen ger utrymme för.

In search of academic identity : physical education, sport science and the field of human movement studies

This thesis addresses the problem of the academic identity of the area traditionally referred to as physical education. The study is a critical examination of the argu ments for the justi cation of this area as an autonomous branch of knowledge. The investigation concentrates on a selected number of arguments. The data collection comprised articles books and proceedings of conferences. The preliminary assessment of these materials resulted in a classi cation of the arguments into three groups. The rst group comprises the arguments in favour of physical education as an academic discipline. The second includes the arguments supporting a science of sport. The third consists of the arguments in favour of to a eld of human movement study. The examination of these arguments produced the following results. (a) The area of physical education does not satisfy the conditions presupposed by the de nition of academic discipline. This is so because the area does not form an integrated system of scienti c theories. (b) The same di culty emerges from the examination of the ar guments for sport science. There is no science of sport because there is no integrated system of scienti c theories related to sport. (c) The arguments in favour of a eld of study yielded more productive results. However di culties arise from the de nition of human movement. The analysis of this concept showed that its limits are not well demarcated. This makes it problematic to take human movement as the focus of a eld of studies. These aspects led to the conclusion that such things as an academic discipline of physical education sport science and eld of human movement studies do not exist. At least there are not such things in the sense of autonomous branches of knowledge. This does not imply that a more integrated inquiry based on several disciplines is not possible and desirable. This would enable someone entering phys ical education to nd a more organised structure of knowledge with some generally accepted problem situations procedures and theories on which to base professional practice.

Optimal performance fee and flow of funds in asset management contracts

This paper investigates the importance of ow of funds as an implicit incentive in the asset management industry. We build a two-period bi- nomial moral hazard model to explain the trade-o¤s between ow, per- formance and fees where e¤ort depends on the combination of implicit ( ow of funds) and explicit (performance fee) incentives. Two cases are considered. With full commitment, the investor s relevant trade-o¤ is to give up expected return in the second period vis-à-vis to induce e¤ort in the rst period. The more concerned the investor is with today s pay- o¤, the more willing he will be to give up expected return in the second period by penalizing negative excess return in the rst period. Without full commitment, the investor learns some symmetric and imperfect infor- mation about the ability of the manager to obtain positive excess return. In this case, observed returns reveal ability as well as e¤ort choices. We show that powerful implicit incentives may explain the ow-performance relationship with a numerical solution. Besides, risk aversion explains the complementarity between performance fee and ow of funds.

Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

A search-theoretic explanation for the negative correlation between labor income and impatience

Lawrance (1991) has shown, through the estimation of consumption Euler equations, that subjective rates of impatience (time preference) in the U.S. are three to Öve percentage points higher for households with lower average labor incomes than for those with higher labor income. From a theoretical perspective, the sign of this correlation in a job-search model seems at Örst to be undetermined, since more impatient workers tend to accept wage o§ers that less impatient workers would not, thereby remaining less time unemployed. The main result of this paper is showing that, regardless of the existence of e§ects of opposite sign, and independently of the particular speciÖcations of the givens of the model, less impatient workers always end up, in the long run, with a higher average income. The result is based on the (unique) invariant Markov distribution of wages associated with the dynamic optimization problem solved by the consumers. An example is provided to illustrate the method.

Solving the non-convexity problem in some shopping-time and human-capital models

Several works in the shopping-time and in the human-capital literature, due to the nonconcavity of the underlying Hamiltonian, use Örst-order conditions in dynamic optimization to characterize necessity, but not su¢ ciency, in intertemporal problems. In this work I choose one paper in each one of these two areas and show that optimality can be characterized by means of a simple aplication of Arrowís (1968) su¢ ciency theorem.

On choice of technique in the Robinson-Solow-Srinivasan model

We report results on the optimal \choice of technique" in a model originally formulated by Robinson, Solow and Srinivasan (henceforth, the RSS model) and further discussed by Okishio and Stiglitz. By viewing this vintage-capital model without discounting as a speci c instance of the general theory of intertemporal resource allocation associated with Brock, Gale and McKenzie, we resolve longstanding conjectures in the form of theorems on the existence and price support of optimal paths, and of conditions suÆcient for the optimality of a policy rst identi ed by Stiglitz. We dispose of the necessity of these conditions in surprisingly simple examples of economies in which (i) an optimal path is periodic, (ii) a path following Stiglitz' policy is bad, and (iii) there is optimal investment in di erent vintages at di erent times. (129 words)

The effects of external and internal strikes on total factor productivity

This paper examines structural changes that occur in the total factor productivity (TFP) within countries. It is possible that some episodes of high economic growth or economic decline are associated with permanent productivity shocks, therefore, this research has two objectives. The Örst one is to estimate the structural changes present in TFP for a sample of 81 countries between 1950(60) and 2000. The second one is to identify, whenever possible, episodes in the political and economic history of these countries that may account for the structural breaks in question. The results suggest that about 85% of the TFP time-series present at least one structural break, moreover, at least half the structural changes can be attributed to internal factors, such as independence or a newly adopted constitution, and about 30% to external shocks, such as oil shock or shocks in international interest rates. The majority of the estimated breaks are downwards, indicating that after a break the TFP tends to decrease, implying that institutional rearrangements, external shocks, or internal shocks may be costly and from which it is very di¢ cult to recover.

Real exchange rate misalignments

This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autoregressive processes governed by two states representing di¤erent means. Three are the main results we …nd: …rst, no evidence of di¤erent regimes for misalignment is found in some countries, second, some countries present one regime of no misalignment (tranquility) and the other regime with misalignment (crisis), and, third, for those countries with two misalignment regimes, the lower mean misalignment regime (appreciated) have higher persistence that the higher mean one (depreciated).

What happens after the central bank of Brazil increases the target interbank rate by 1%?

I start presenting an explicit solution to Taylorís (2001) model, in order to illustrate the link between the target interest rate and the overnight interest rate prevailing in the economy. Next, I use Vector Auto Regressions to shed some light on the evolution of key macroeconomic variables after the Central Bank of Brazil increases the target interest rate by 1%. Point estimates show a four-year accumulated output loss ranging from 0:04% (whole sample, 1980 : 1-2004 : 2; quarterly data) to 0:25% (Post-Real data only) with a Örst-year peak output response between 0:04% and 1:0%; respectively. Prices decline between 2% and 4% in a 4-year horizon. The accumulated output response is found to be between 3:5 and 6 times higher after the Real Plan than when the whole sample is considered. The 95% confidence bands obtained using bias-corrected bootstrap always include the null output response when the whole sample is used, but not when the data is restricted to the Post-Real period. Innovations to interest rates explain between 4:9% (whole sample) and 9:2% (post-Real sample) of the forecast error of GDP.

An intra-household approach to the welfare costs of inflation (Revised Version, Forthcoming 2006, Estudos Econômicos)

The literature on the welfare costs of ináation universally assumes that the many-person household can be treated as a single economic agent. This paper explores what the heterogeneity of the agents in a household might imply for such welfare analyses. First, we show that allowing for a one-person or for a many-person transacting technology impacts the money demand function and, therefore, the welfare costs of ináation. Second, more importantly, we derive su¢ cient conditions under which welfare assessments which depart directly from the knowledge of the money demand function (as in Lucas (2000)) are robust (invariant) under the number of persons considered in the household. Third, we show that Baileyís (1956) partial-equilibrium measure of the welfare costs of ináation can be obtained as a Örst-order approximation of the general-equilibrium welfare measure derived in this paper using a many-person transacting technology.

Ensaios em macroeconometria e finanças

This thesis is composed of three essays referent to the subjects of macroeconometrics and Önance. In each essay, which corresponds to one chapter, the objective is to investigate and analyze advanced econometric techniques, applied to relevant macroeconomic questions, such as the capital mobility hypothesis and the sustainability of public debt. A Önance topic regarding portfolio risk management is also investigated, through an econometric technique used to evaluate Value-at-Risk models. The Örst chapter investigates an intertemporal optimization model to analyze the current account. Based on Campbell & Shillerís (1987) approach, a Wald test is conducted to analyze a set of restrictions imposed to a VAR used to forecast the current account. The estimation is based on three di§erent procedures: OLS, SUR and the two-way error decomposition of Fuller & Battese (1974), due to the presence of global shocks. A note on Granger causality is also provided, which is shown to be a necessary condition to perform the Wald test with serious implications to the validation of the model. An empirical exercise for the G-7 countries is presented, and the results substantially change with the di§erent estimation techniques. A small Monte Carlo simulation is also presented to investigate the size and power of the Wald test based on the considered estimators. The second chapter presents a study about Öscal sustainability based on a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. A novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones is proposed, which allows one to identify trajectories of public debt that are not compatible with Öscal sustainability. Moreover, such trajectories are used to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run Öscal sustainability. An out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling is also constructed, and can be used by policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. An empirical exercise by using Brazilian data is conducted to show the applicability of the methodology. In the third chapter, an alternative backtest to evaluate the performance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) models is proposed. The econometric methodology allows one to directly test the overall performance of a VaR model, as well as identify periods of an increased risk exposure, which seems to be a novelty in the literature. Quantile regressions provide an appropriate environment to investigate VaR models, since they can naturally be viewed as a conditional quantile function of a given return series. An empirical exercise is conducted for daily S&P500 series, and a Monte Carlo simulation is also presented, revealing that the proposed test might exhibit more power in comparison to other backtests.