THE PHYSICS OF IDEAS: INFERRING THE MECHANICS OF OPINION FORMATION FROM MACROSCOPIC STATISTICAL PATTERNS

In a microscopic setting, humans behave in rich and unexpected ways. In a macroscopic setting, however, distinctive patterns of group behavior emerge, leading statistical physicists to search for an underlying mechanism. The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the macroscopic patterns of competing ideas in order to discern the mechanics of how group opinions form at the microscopic level. First, we explore the competition of answers in online Q&A (question and answer) boards. We find that a simple individual-level model can capture important features of user behavior, especially as the number of answers to a question grows. Our model further suggests that the wisdom of crowds may be constrained by information overload, in which users are unable to thoroughly evaluate each answer and therefore tend to use heuristics to pick what they believe is the best answer. Next, we explore models of opinion spread among voters to explain observed universal statistical patterns such as rescaled vote distributions and logarithmic vote correlations. We introduce a simple model that can explain both properties, as well as why it takes so long for large groups to reach consensus. An important feature of the model that facilitates agreement with data is that individuals become more stubborn (unwilling to change their opinion) over time. Finally, we explore potential underlying mechanisms for opinion formation in juries, by comparing data to various types of models. We find that different null hypotheses in which jurors do not interact when reaching a decision are in strong disagreement with data compared to a simple interaction model. These findings provide conceptual and mechanistic support for previous work that has found mutual influence can play a large role in group decisions. In addition, by matching our models to data, we are able to infer the time scales over which individuals change their opinions for different jury contexts. We find that these values increase as a function of the trial time, suggesting that jurors and judicial panels exhibit a kind of stubbornness similar to what we include in our model of voting behavior.

Confrontation de l'architecture de l'Iran avec la modernité occidentale : constance de la question identitaire

À la fin du 19e siècle, l’Iran commence à se transformer radicalement. Ce changement est le résultat d’un processus de métamorphose socioculturelle, avec le désir d’effacer les méthodes du passé et de recommencer ; une ambition de faire un renouvellement fondamental dans la société, en bénéficiant des grandes idées progressistes de l'Occident moderne. Cette volonté s’est renforcée à la suite des premières visites en Europe d’étudiants et de Nassereddin Shah, le roi de l'Iran, dans les années 1870. Dans ce contexte, les Iraniens et leurs gouvernants, considérant leurs infériorités politico-économiques, ont décidé de remplacer les frustrations internationales par des idées nationalistes et une propagande de suprématie raciale ou religieuse, notamment concertant « l'identité culturelle ». Suivant ces tentatives pour réformer les infrastructures sociopolitiques de l'Iran, tous les domaines culturels du pays, incluant l’architecture, ont été modifiés, selon les idéologies des dirigeants de l’Iran pendant trois périodes historiques du pays : l'époque Qadjar (dès le règne de Nassereddin Shah en 1848), l'époque Pahlavi (1925-1979) et l'époque Post-révolution islamique (1979- jusqu'à présent). L'idée générale de notre mémoire est d'étudier le processus de modernisation de l'architecture de l'Iran, de même que les influences majeures de tous ces changements, concrétisés par des fusions éclectiques et des idées pluralistes – souvent basées sur la politique. De là, en usant des approches de l’histoire sociale et culturelle de l’art, nous analysons des exemples de monuments de l'architecture publique de l'Iran depuis l'entrée de l'Iran dans la modernité, pour chacune des trois périodes mentionnées. Cela, afin de comprendre si les architectes iraniens ont trouvé de nouvelles conceptions pour opérer un déploiement créatif des principes traditionnels et pour trouver de nouvelles orientations dans le processus général de leur évolution architecturale. Autrement dit, nous cherchons à savoir si l'architecture iranienne, avec tous les changements stylistiques dans le processus de conceptualisation, a pu trouver - depuis l'intervention de la modernité occidentale et de l'architecture moderne - son propre langage de la modernité en architecture.

Confrontation de l'architecture de l'Iran avec la modernité occidentale : constance de la question identitaire

À la fin du 19e siècle, l’Iran commence à se transformer radicalement. Ce changement est le résultat d’un processus de métamorphose socioculturelle, avec le désir d’effacer les méthodes du passé et de recommencer ; une ambition de faire un renouvellement fondamental dans la société, en bénéficiant des grandes idées progressistes de l'Occident moderne. Cette volonté s’est renforcée à la suite des premières visites en Europe d’étudiants et de Nassereddin Shah, le roi de l'Iran, dans les années 1870. Dans ce contexte, les Iraniens et leurs gouvernants, considérant leurs infériorités politico-économiques, ont décidé de remplacer les frustrations internationales par des idées nationalistes et une propagande de suprématie raciale ou religieuse, notamment concertant « l'identité culturelle ». Suivant ces tentatives pour réformer les infrastructures sociopolitiques de l'Iran, tous les domaines culturels du pays, incluant l’architecture, ont été modifiés, selon les idéologies des dirigeants de l’Iran pendant trois périodes historiques du pays : l'époque Qadjar (dès le règne de Nassereddin Shah en 1848), l'époque Pahlavi (1925-1979) et l'époque Post-révolution islamique (1979- jusqu'à présent). L'idée générale de notre mémoire est d'étudier le processus de modernisation de l'architecture de l'Iran, de même que les influences majeures de tous ces changements, concrétisés par des fusions éclectiques et des idées pluralistes – souvent basées sur la politique. De là, en usant des approches de l’histoire sociale et culturelle de l’art, nous analysons des exemples de monuments de l'architecture publique de l'Iran depuis l'entrée de l'Iran dans la modernité, pour chacune des trois périodes mentionnées. Cela, afin de comprendre si les architectes iraniens ont trouvé de nouvelles conceptions pour opérer un déploiement créatif des principes traditionnels et pour trouver de nouvelles orientations dans le processus général de leur évolution architecturale. Autrement dit, nous cherchons à savoir si l'architecture iranienne, avec tous les changements stylistiques dans le processus de conceptualisation, a pu trouver - depuis l'intervention de la modernité occidentale et de l'architecture moderne - son propre langage de la modernité en architecture.

Stratégie de participation publique visant l’implantation de projets de piétonnisation porteurs d’acceptabilité sociale à Montréal

L’objectif de cet essai est de proposer pour Montréal une stratégie de participation publique visant l’implantation de projets de piétonnisation porteurs d’acceptabilité sociale dans tous les secteurs de la métropole. En effet, malgré quelques initiatives en faveur des modes de déplacement actif, les intérêts des piétons sont souvent délaissés au profit de ceux des automobilistes qui s’imposent plus facilement. Ainsi, la motorisation en constante croissance sur l’île a pour effet de dégrader l’environnement résiduel disponible pour les personnes. Au contraire, le choix d’aménagements favorisant les modes de déplacement doux comme la marche s’avère profitable, dans toutes les sphères du développement durable, tant sur le plan personnel que collectif. L’étude des pratiques d’aménagement urbain à Montréal démontre que les mécanismes de participation des citoyens à la transformation de l’environnement bâti comportent plusieurs lacunes et participent à cette dévalorisation du piéton. L’organisme responsable de la participation publique, l’Office de consultation publique de Montréal, propose une approche inadéquate pour traiter une question aussi complexe que la piétonnisation. Par conséquent, il n’y a pas de trame cohérente et consensuelle de la piétonnisation en ville. Ainsi les aménagements sont de qualité très inégale d’un arrondissement à l’autre, voire d’une rue à l’autre. La définition des concepts démontre qu’une organisation de l’espace à échelle humaine, soit à échelle piétonne, est incontournable lorsqu’il est question de l’aménagement de collectivités viables. Mettre en place des conditions favorables à la marchabilité permet effectivement de développer une vision structurante, à la base d’un milieu de vie plus sain et d’aborder en amont les problématiques propres à l’urbanisation. Par ailleurs, l’emploi d’une approche participative en urbanisme se présente comme une réponse incontournable dans la conception de projets porteurs d’acceptabilité sociale. La stratégie proposée dans le cadre de cet essai vise la mise en place des conditions nécessaires au partage du pouvoir en accord avec les théories de la gouvernance participative. D’abord, la vision de la piétonnisation montréalaise doit être construite en collaboration avec les membres de la collectivité. Ensuite, les projets doivent être co-construits en partenariat avec les parties prenantes afin de bien s’harmoniser avec le milieu d’accueil. 10 recommandations accompagnent cette stratégie de participation en deux volets. Il est entre autres question de redéfinir la culture de la participation publique à Montréal vers la construction de l’acceptabilité sociale des projets, de favoriser une démarche de participation flexible et de communiquer de manière continue, proactive et mobilisatrice.

Facial Changes After Early Treatment Of Unilateral Coronal Synostosis Question The Necessity Of Primary Nasal Osteotomy.

The premature fusion of unilateral coronal suture can cause a significant asymmetry of the craniofacial skeleton, with an oblique deviation of the cranial base that negatively impacts soft tissue facial symmetry. The purpose of this study was to assess facial symmetry obtained in patients with unilateral coronal synostosis (UCS) surgically treated by 2 different techniques. We hypothesized that nasal deviation should not be addressed in a primary surgical correction of UCS. Consecutive UCS patients were enrolled in a prospective study and randomly divided into 2 groups. In group 1, the patients underwent total frontal reconstruction and transferring of onlay bone grafts to the recessive superior orbital rim (n = 7), and in group 2, the patients underwent total frontal reconstruction and unilateral fronto-orbital advancement (n = 5). Computerized photogrammetric analysis measured vertical and horizontal axis of the nose and the orbital globe in the preoperative and postoperative periods. Intragroup and intergroup comparisons were performed. Intragroup preoperative and postoperative comparisons showed a significant (all P < 0.05) reduction of the nasal axis and the orbital-globe axis in the postoperative period in the 2 groups. Intergroup comparisons showed no significant difference (all P > 0.05). Facial symmetry was achieved in the patients with UCS who underwent surgery regardless of surgical approach evaluated here. Our data showed a significant improvement in nasal and orbital-globe deviation, leading us to question the necessity of primary nasal correction in these patients.

Generalized Sznajd model for opinion propagation

In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.

Statistics of opinion domains of the majority-vote model on a square lattice

The existence of juxtaposed regions of distinct cultures in spite of the fact that people's beliefs have a tendency to become more similar to each other's as the individuals interact repeatedly is a puzzling phenomenon in the social sciences. Here we study an extreme version of the frequency-dependent bias model of social influence in which an individual adopts the opinion shared by the majority of the members of its extended neighborhood, which includes the individual itself. This is a variant of the majority-vote model in which the individual retains its opinion in case there is a tie among the neighbors' opinions. We assume that the individuals are fixed in the sites of a square lattice of linear size L and that they interact with their nearest neighbors only. Within a mean-field framework, we derive the equations of motion for the density of individuals adopting a particular opinion in the single-site and pair approximations. Although the single-site approximation predicts a single opinion domain that takes over the entire lattice, the pair approximation yields a qualitatively correct picture with the coexistence of different opinion domains and a strong dependence on the initial conditions. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations indicate the existence of a rich distribution of opinion domains or clusters, the number of which grows with L(2) whereas the size of the largest cluster grows with ln L(2). The analysis of the sizes of the opinion domains shows that they obey a power-law distribution for not too large sizes but that they are exponentially distributed in the limit of very large clusters. In addition, similarly to other well-known social influence model-Axelrod's model-we found that these opinion domains are unstable to the effect of a thermal-like noise.

An opinion dynamics model for the diffusion of innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian updating rules in continuous opinion dynamics models

Here, I investigate the use of Bayesian updating rules applied to modeling how social agents change their minds in the case of continuous opinion models. Given another agent statement about the continuous value of a variable, we will see that interesting dynamics emerge when an agent assigns a likelihood to that value that is a mixture of a Gaussian and a uniform distribution. This represents the idea that the other agent might have no idea about what is being talked about. The effect of updating only the first moments of the distribution will be studied, and we will see that this generates results similar to those of the bounded confidence models. On also updating the second moment, several different opinions always survive in the long run, as agents become more stubborn with time. However, depending on the probability of error and initial uncertainty, those opinions might be clustered around a central value.

Continuous opinions and discrete actions in opinion dynamics problems

A model where agents show discrete behavior regarding their actions, but have continuous opinions that are updated by interacting with other agents is presented. This new updating rule is applied to both the voter and Sznajd models for interaction between neighbors, and its consequences are discussed. The appearance of extremists is naturally observed and it seems to be a characteristic of this model.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.