An Optimised Illustrative Investment Model Of The Economics Of Integrated Returns From CCS Deployment In The UK/UKCS

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 118

The Economics of CO2-EOR Cluster Developments in the UK Central North Sea/ Outer Moray Firth

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 123

A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?

The standard approach to the economics of climate change, which has its best known implementation in Nordhaus's DICE and RICE models (well described in Nordhaus's 2008 book, A Question of Balance) is not well equipped to deal with the possibility of catastrophe, since we are unable to evaluate a risk averse representative agent's expected utility when there is any signi cant probability of zero consumption. Whilst other authors attempt to develop new tools with which to address these problems, the simple solution proposed in this paper is to ask a question that the currently available tools of climate change economics are capable of answering. Rather than having agents optimally choosing a path (that differs from the recommendations of climate scientists) within models which cannot capture the essential features of the problem, I argue that economic models should be used to determine the savings and investment paths which implement climate targets that have been suggested in the physical science literature.

Personality traits and behavioural and psychological symptoms in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Both personality changes and behavioural and psychological symptoms (BPS) may be associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in later life and help identify incipient dementia. We wished to investigate the links between personality and BPS in MCI. METHOD: We studied premorbid personality traits as estimated 5 years back and their changes in 83 control subjects and 52 MCI patients using the revised NEO Personality Inventory for the Five-Factor Model completed by a proxy. Information on BPS was obtained using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). Analyses were controlled for current depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Premorbid neuroticism and openness to experience were associated with the total NPI score. The changes in neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experiences, and conscientiousness were associated with apathy and affective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Personality changes and BPS occur in MCI. The occurrence of affective BPS and apathy is associated with both premorbid personality traits and their changes.

Characterizing Behavioral Decisions with Choice Datas

A number of different models with behavioral economics have a reduced form representation where potentially boundedly rational decision-makers do not necessarily internalize all the consequences of their actions on payoff relevant features (which we label as psychological states) of the choice environment. This paper studies the restrictions that such behavioral models impose on choice data and the implications they have for welfare analysis. First, we propose a welfare benchmark that is justified using standard axioms of rational choice and can be applied to a number of existing seminal behavioral economics models. Second, we show that Sen's axioms and fully characterize choice data consistent with behavioral decision-makers. Third, we show how choice data to infer information about the normative signi.cance of psychological states and establish the possibility of identifying welfare dominated choices.

Temper and Temperature: The Missing Link of Climate on Armed Conflicts

We investigate the causes of a conflict by adding ambient climate factors to the existing bundle of most significant variables. It turns out that – controlling for possible associations – temperature could actually induce a conflict. We emphasise that temperature could not be a dominant reason in starting a conflict; however, it could escalate the chances when other factors are present. This paper references some of the related psychological studies to support this claim. We also show that grievance factors could actually be rightfully effective in starting an internal conflict alongside greed based reasons. In the end, we believe that it could be informative to study ambient factors more often in economics.

Personality traits and behavioral and psychological symptoms in patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The origins of behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still poorly understood. Focusing on individual personality structure, we explored the relationship between premorbid personality and its changes over 5 years, and BPS in patients at an early stage of AD. METHOD: A total of 54 patients at an early stage of AD according to ICD-10 and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria and 64 control subjects were included. Family members filled in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire to evaluate their proxies' current BPS and the NEO Personality Inventory Revised twice, the first time to evaluate the participants' current personality and the second time to assess personality traits as they were remembered to be 5 years earlier. RESULTS: Behavioral and psychological symptoms, in particular apathy, depression, anxiety, and agitation, are frequent occurrences in early stage AD. Premorbid personality differed between AD patients and normal control, but it was not predictive of BPS in patients with AD. Personality traits clearly change in the course of beginning AD, and this change seems to develop in parallel with BPS as early signs of AD. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid personality was not associated with BPS in early stage of AD, although complex and non-linear relationships between the two are not excluded. However, both personality and behavioral changes occur early in the course of AD, and recognizing them as possible, early warning signs of neurodegeneration may prove to be a key factor for early detection and intervention. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quelle assistance psychologique pour les couples requérant une aide médicale à la procréation [Which psychological support for couples seeking medical assistance for procreation?]

OBJECTIVES: The objective of our qualitative study was to define modalities of psychological support to be offered to couples seeking medically assisted procreation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty couples participated in a semi-structured videotaped interview, which touched on themes such as personal and family histories, the couple's relationship, etc. We focused on the "narrative mobility", that is the way in which the couples transmit their personal and family history during the interview and the interviewer's impression that he may or may not share this with the couples. RESULTS: Observed differences in narrative mobility led us to distinguish three groups of couples and to propose various types of psychological support. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This exploratory study, with its interest for the narrative mobility, concerns the couples' capacity to stand back from their own story as responsible interlocutors. We made the hypothesis that this capacity is linked to their capacity to handle their emotional stress, to act as partners to the medical team and to prepare themselves for their future parenthood.

A critical analysis of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

When dealing with sustainability we are concerned with the biophysical as well as the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special attention is given to dimensional issues in relation to curve fitting practice in economics. Unfortunately, many empirical and theoretical studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers in exponential or logarithmic functions. We show that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional unit x into exponential functions ( a x ) and logarithmic functions ( x a log ). Secondly, we investigate the conditions of data sets under which a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification. This analysis shows that logarithmic specification superiority in terms of least square norm is heavily dependent on the available data set. The last section deals with economists’ “curve fitting fetishism”. We propose that a distinction be made between curve fitting over past observations and the development of a theoretical or empirical law capable of maintaining its fitting power for any future observations. Finally we conclude this paper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

Task force IV: Clinical use of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Participants of the 1999 Consensus Conference on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring

OBJECTIVE: To reach a consensus on the clinical use of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM). METHODS: A task force on the clinical use of ABPM wrote this overview in preparation for the Seventh International Consensus Conference (23-25 September 1999, Leuven, Belgium). This article was amended to account for opinions aired at the conference and to reflect the common ground reached in the discussions. POINTS OF CONSENSUS: The Riva Rocci/Korotkoff technique, although it is prone to error, is easy and cheap to perform and remains worldwide the standard procedure for measuring blood pressure. ABPM should be performed only with properly validated devices as an accessory to conventional measurement of blood pressure. Ambulatory recording of blood pressure requires considerable investment in equipment and training and its use for screening purposes cannot be recommended. ABPM is most useful for identifying patients with white-coat hypertension (WCH), also known as isolated clinic hypertension, which is arbitrarily defined as a clinic blood pressure of more than 140 mmHg systolic or 90 mmHg diastolic in a patient with daytime ambulatory blood pressure below 135 mmHg systolic and 85 mmHg diastolic. Some experts consider a daytime blood pressure below 130 mmHg systolic and 80 mmHg diastolic optimal. Whether WCH predisposes subjects to sustained hypertension remains debated. However, outcome is better correlated to the ambulatory blood pressure than it is to the conventional blood pressure. Antihypertensive drugs lower the clinic blood pressure in patients with WCH but not the ambulatory blood pressure, and also do not improve prognosis. Nevertheless, WCH should not be left unattended. If no previous cardiovascular complications are present, treatment could be limited to follow-up and hygienic measures, which should also account for risk factors other than hypertension. ABPM is superior to conventional measurement of blood pressure not only for selecting patients for antihypertensive drug treatment but also for assessing the effects both of non-pharmacological and of pharmacological therapy. The ambulatory blood pressure should be reduced by treatment to below the thresholds applied for diagnosing sustained hypertension. ABPM makes the diagnosis and treatment of nocturnal hypertension possible and is especially indicated for patients with borderline hypertension, the elderly, pregnant women, patients with treatment-resistant hypertension and patients with symptoms suggestive of hypotension. In centres with sufficient financial resources, ABPM could become part of the routine assessment of patients with clinic hypertension. For patients with WCH, it should be repeated at annual or 6-monthly intervals. Variation of blood pressure throughout the day can be monitored only by ABPM, but several advantages of the latter technique can also be obtained by self-measurement of blood pressure, a less expensive method that is probably better suited to primary practice and use in developing countries. CONCLUSIONS: ABPM or equivalent methods for tracing the white-coat effect should become part of the routine diagnostic and therapeutic procedures applied to treated and untreated patients with elevated clinic blood pressures. Results of long-term outcome trials should better establish the advantage of further integrating ABPM as an accessory to conventional sphygmomanometry into the routine care of hypertensive patients and should provide more definite information on the long-term cost-effectiveness. Because such trials are not likely to be funded by the pharmaceutical industry, governments and health insurance companies should take responsibility in this regard.

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

GPs' role in the detection of psychological problems of young people: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Among young people, about one in three females and one in five males report experiencing emotional distress but 65-95% of them do not receive help from health professionals. AIM: To assess the differences among young people who seek help and those who do not seek help for their psychological problems, considering the frequency of consultations to their GP and their social resources. DESIGN OF STUDY: School survey. SETTING: Post-mandatory school. METHOD: Among a Swiss national representative sample of 7429 students and apprentices (45.6% females) aged 16-20 years, 1931 young people reported needing help for a problem of depression/sadness (26%) and were included in the study. They were divided into those who sought help (n = 256) and those who did not (n = 1675), and differences between them were assessed. RESULTS: Only 13% of young people needing help for psychological problems consulted for that reason and this rate was positively associated with the frequency of consultations to the GP. However, 80% of young people who did not consult for psychological problems visited their GP at least once during the previous year. Being older or a student, having a higher depression score, or a history of suicide attempt were linked with a higher rate of help seeking. Moreover, confiding in adults positively influenced the rate of help seeking. CONCLUSION: The large majority of young people reporting psychological problems do not seek help, although they regularly consult their GP. While young people have difficulties in tackling issues about mental health, GPs could improve the situation by systematically inquiring about this issue.

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.