Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Sequence analysis of coding DNA fragments of pfcrt and pfmdr-1 genes in Plasmodium falciparum isolates from Odisha, India

The global emergence and spread of malaria parasites resistant to antimalarial drugs is the major problem in malaria control. The genetic basis of the parasite's resistance to the antimalarial drug chloroquine (CQ) is well-documented, allowing for the analysis of field isolates of malaria parasites to address evolutionary questions concerning the origin and spread of CQ-resistance. Here, we present DNA sequence analyses of both the second exon of the Plasmodium falciparum CQ-resistance transporter (pfcrt) gene and the 5' end of the P. falciparum multidrug-resistance 1 (pfmdr-1) gene in 40 P. falciparum field isolates collected from eight different localities of Odisha, India. First, we genotyped the samples for the pfcrt K76T and pfmdr-1 N86Y mutations in these two genes, which are the mutations primarily implicated in CQ-resistance. We further analyzed amino acid changes in codons 72-76 of the pfcrt haplotypes. Interestingly, both the K76T and N86Y mutations were found to co-exist in 32 out of the total 40 isolates, which were of either the CVIET or SVMNT haplotype, while the remaining eight isolates were of the CVMNK haplotype. In total, eight nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were observed, six in the pfcrt gene and two in the pfmdr-1 gene. One poorly studied SNP in the pfcrt gene (A97T) was found at a high frequency in many P. falciparum samples. Using population genetics to analyze these two gene fragments, we revealed comparatively higher nucleotide diversity in the pfcrt gene than in the pfmdr-1 gene. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium was found to be tight between closely spaced SNPs of the pfcrt gene. Finally, both the pfcrt and the pfmdr-1 genes were found to evolve under the standard neutral model of molecular evolution.

Conceiving Comparative Policy Analysis : Implementing Air Quality Improvement Programs

The comparative analysis of air quality control policies provides an interesting field for studies of comparative policy analysis including program formulation and implementation processes. In European countries, the problem is comparable, whereas implementation structures, programs and policy impacts vary to a considerable extent. Analysis testing possibilities and constraints of air control policies under varying conditions are likely to contribute to a further development of a theory of policy analysis. This paper presents the analytical framework applied in a continuing empirical study explaining program formulation and implementation processes with respect to the different actors involved. Concrete emitter behavior can be explained by interaction processes at the very local level, by program elements of national legislation, and by structural constraints under which such programs are produced.

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

A combined approach of VNTR and MLST analysis: improving molecular typing of Argentinean isolates of Leptospira interrogans

Leptospirosis is an emerging infectious disease that has been identified as both a human and animal health problem worldwide. Regular outbreaks associated with specific risk factors have been reported in Argentina. However, there are no available data concerning the genetic population level for this pathogen. Therefore, the aim of this work was to describe the genetic diversity of Leptospira interrogans through the application of two molecular typing strategies: variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). For this purpose, seven reference strains and 18 non-epidemiologically related isolates from diverse hosts and Argentinean regions were analysed. Among them, nine genotypes and seven sequence types (STs), including three unreported STs, were described using VNTR and MLST, respectively. eBURST analysis demonstrated that ST37 was the most frequent and founder genotype of a clonal complex (CCs) containing STN1 and STN3, suggesting the importance of studying the serovars belonging to this CC in Argentina. The data from maximum parsimony analysis, which combined both techniques, achieved intra-serovar discrimination, surmounted microscopic agglutination test discrepancies and increased the discriminatory power of each technique applied separately. This study is the first to combine both strategies for L. interrogans typing to generate a more comprehensive molecular genotyping of isolates from Argentina in a global context.

Influence of the ankle arthropathies on the 3D kinematics of the lower limbs during gait: analysis with an ambulatory system.

Introduction: Ankle arthropathy is associated with a decreased motion of the ankle-hindfoot during ambulation. Ankle arthrodesis was shown to result in degeneration of the neighbour joints of the foot. Inversely, total ankle arthroplasty conceptually preserves the adjacent joints because of the residual mobility of the ankle but this has not been demonstrated yet in vivo. It has also been reported that degenerative ankle diseases, and even arthrodesis, do not result in alteration of the knee and hip joints. We present the preliminary results of a new approach of this problem based on ambulatory gait analysis. Patients and Methods: Motion analysis of the lower limbs was performed using a Physilog® (BioAGM, CH) system consisting of three-dimensional (3D) accelerometer and gyroscope, coupled to a magnetic system (Liberty©, Polhemus, USA). Both systems have been validated. Three groups of two patients were included into this pilot study and compared to healthy subjects (controls) during level walking: patients with ankle osteoarthritis (group 1), patients treated by ankle arthrodesis (group 2), patients treated by total ankle prosthesis (group 3). Results: Motion patterns of all analyzed joints over more than 20 gait cycles in each subject were highly repeatable. Motion amplitude of the ankle-hindfoot in control patients was similar to recently reported results. Ankle arthrodesis limited the motion of the ankle-hindfoot in the sagittal and horizontal planes. The prosthetic ankle allowed a more physiologic movement in the sagittal plane only. Ankle arthritis and its treatments did not influence the range of motion of the knee and hip joint during stance phase, excepted for a slight decrease of the hip flexion in groups 1 and 2. Conclusion: The reliability of the system was shown by the repeatability of the consecutive measurements. The results of this preliminary study were similar to those obtained through laboratory gait analysis. However, our system has the advantage to allow ambulatory analysis of 3D kinematics of the lower limbs outside of a gait laboratory and in real life conditions. To our knowledge this is a new concept in the analysis of ankle arthropathy and its treatments. Therefore, there is a potential to address specific questions like the difficult comparison of the benefits of ankle arthroplasty versus arthrodesis. The encouraging results of this pilot study offer the perspective to analyze the consequences of ankle arthropathy and its treatments on the biomechanics of the lower limbs ambulatory, in vivo and in daily life conditions.

Clustering algorithms for anti-money laundering using graph theory and social network analysis

HEMOLIA (a project under European community’s 7th framework programme) is a new generation Anti-Money Laundering (AML) intelligent multi-agent alert and investigation system which in addition to the traditional financial data makes extensive use of modern society’s huge telecom data source, thereby opening up a new dimension of capabilities to all Money Laundering fighters (FIUs, LEAs) and Financial Institutes (Banks, Insurance Companies, etc.). This Master-Thesis project is done at AIA, one of the partners for the HEMOLIA project in Barcelona. The objective of this thesis is to find the clusters in a network drawn by using the financial data. An extensive literature survey has been carried out and several standard algorithms related to networks have been studied and implemented. The clustering problem is a NP-hard problem and several algorithms like K-Means and Hierarchical clustering are being implemented for studying several problems relating to sociology, evolution, anthropology etc. However, these algorithms have certain drawbacks which make them very difficult to implement. The thesis suggests (a) a possible improvement to the K-Means algorithm, (b) a novel approach to the clustering problem using the Genetic Algorithms and (c) a new algorithm for finding the cluster of a node using the Genetic Algorithm.

Do Fiscal and Political Decentralization Raise Students’ Performance? A Cross-Country Analysis

The low quality of education is a persistent problem in many developed countries. Parallel to in the last decades exists a tendency towards decentralization in many developed and developing countries. Using micro data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) referred to 22 countries, we test whether there exists an impact of fiscal and political decentralization on student performance in the areas of mathematics, reading skills and science. We observe that fiscal decentralization exerts an unequivocal positive effect on students’ outcomes in all areas, while the effect of political decentralization is more ambiguous. On the one hand, the capacity of the subnational governments to rule on its region has a positive effect on students’ performance in mathematics. On the other hand, the capacity to influence the country as a whole has a negative impact on mathematics achievement. As a general result, we observe that students’ performance in Mathematics is more sensible to these exogenous variations than in Sciences and reading skills. Keywords: School outcomes, PISA, fiscal decentralization, political decentralization JEL codes: H11, H77, I21

The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

A Factor analysis of hidrochemical composition of Llobregat river basin

Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing modelsbetween end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework.We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study.We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables thatlay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hiddencomponents, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members.We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained totalvariance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphicalrepresentation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysisof diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, exceptfertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition.This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations areintrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data

Towards a system analysis of the early steps of infectious endocarditis pathogenesis

L'endocardite infectieuse (EI) est une maladie potentiellement mortelle qui doit être prévenue dans toute la mesure du possible. Au cours de ces dernières 50 années, les recommandations Américaines et Européennes pour la prophylaxie de PEI proposaient aux patients à risques de prendre un antibiotique, préventif avant de subir une intervention médico-chirurgicale susceptible d'induire une bactériémie transitoire. Cependant, des études épidémiologiques récentes ont montré que la plupart des EI survenaient en dehors de tous actes médico-chirurgicaux, et indépendamment de la prise ou non de prophylaxie antibiotique . L'EI pourrait donc survenir suite à la cumulation de bactériémies spontanées de faibles intensités, associées à des activités de la vie courante telle que le brossage dentaire pour le streptocoques, ou à partir de tissus colonisés ou de cathéters infectés pour les staphylocoques. En conséquence, les recommandations internationales pour la prophylaxie de PEI ont été revues et proposent une diminution drastique de l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, le risque d'EI représenté par le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités n'a pas été démontré expérimentalement. Nous avons développé un nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale induite par une inoculation en continu d'une faible quantité de bactéries, simulant le cumul de bactériémies de faibles intensités chez l'homme, et comparé l'infection de Streptococcus gordonii et de Staphylococcus aureus dans ce modèle avec celle du modèle d'IE induite par une bactériémie brève, mais de forte intensité. Nous avons démontré, après injection d'une quantité égale de bactéries, que le nombre de végétations infectées était similaire dans les deux types d'inoculations. Ces résultats expérimentaux ont confirmé l'hypothèse qu'une exposition cumulée à des bactériémies de faibles intensités, en dehors d'une procédure médico-chirurgicale, représentait un risque pour le développement d'une El, comme le suggéraient les études épidémiologiques. En plus, ces résultats ont validé les nouvelles recommandations pour la prophylaxie de l'El, limitant drastiquement l'utilisation d'antibiotiques. Cependant, ces nouvelles recommandations laissent une grande partie (> 90%) de cas potentiels d'EI sans alternatives de préventions, et des nouvelles stratégies prophylactiques doivent être investiguées. Le nouveau modèle d'EI expérimentale représente un modèle réaliste pour étudier des nouvelles mesures prophylactiques potentielles appliquées à des expositions cumulées de bactériémies de faible nombre. Dans un contexte de bactériémies spontanées répétitives, les antibiotiques ne peuvent pas résoudre le problème de la prévention de l'EI. Nous avons donc étudié la une alternative de prévention par l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires. La logique derrière cette approche était basée sur le fait que les plaquettes sont des composants clés dans la formation des végétations cardiaques, et le fait que les bactéries capables d'interagir avec les plaquettes sont plus enclines à induire une El. Les agents antiplaquettaires utilisés ont été l'aspirine (inhibiteur du COX1), la ticlopidine (inhibiteur du P2Y12, le récepteur de l'ADP), et l'eptifibatide et Pabciximab, deux inhibiteurs du GPIIb/IIIa, le récepteur plaquettaire pour le fibrinogène. Les anticoagulants étaient le dabigatran etexilate, inhibant lathrombine et l'acenocumarol, un antagoniste de la vitamine K. L'aspirine, la ticlopidine ou l'eptifibatide seuls n'ont pas permis de prévenir l'infection valvulaire (> 75% animaux infectés). En revanche, la combinaison d'aspirine et de ticlopidine, aussi bien que l'abciximab, ont protégé 45% - 88% des animaux de l'EI par S. gordonii et par S. aureus. L'antithrombotique dabigatran etexilate à protégé 75% des rats contre l'EI par S. aureus, mais pas (< 30% de protection) par S. gordonii. L'acenocoumarol n'a pas eu d'effet sur aucun des deux organismes. En général, ces résultats suggèrent un possible rôle pour les antiplaquettaires et du dabigatran etexilate dans la prophylaxie de l'EI dans un contexte de bactériémies récurrentes de faibles intensités. Cependant, l'effet bénéfique des antiplaquettaires doit être soupesé avec le risque d'hémorragie inhérent à ces molécules, et le fait que les plaquettes jouent un important rôle dans les défenses de l'hôte contre les infections endovasculaires. En plus, le double effet bénéfique du dabigatran etexilate devrait être revu chez les patients porteurs de valves prothétiques, qui ont besoin d'une anticoagulation à vie, et chez lesquels l'EI à S. aureus est associée avec une mortalité de près de 50%. Comme l'approche avec des antiplaquettaires et des antithrombotiques pourrait avoir des limites, une autre stratégie prophylactique pourrait être la vaccination contre des adhésines de surfaces des pathogènes. Chez S. aureus, la protéine de liaison au fibrinogène, ou dumping factor A (ClfA), et la protéine de liaison à la fibronectine (FnbpA) sont des facteurs de virulence nécessaires à l'initiation et l'évolution de PEI. Elles représentent donc des cibles potentielles pour le développement de vaccins contre cette infection. Récemment, des nombreuses publications ont décrit que la bactérie Lactococcus lactis pouvait être utilisée comme vecteur pour la diffusion d'antigènes bactériens in vivo, et que cette approche pourrait être une stratégie de vaccination contre les infections bactériennes. Nous avons exploré l'effet de l'immunisation par des recombinant de L. lactis exprimant le ClfA, la FnbpA, ou le ClfA ensemble avec et une forme tronquée de la FnbpA (Fnbp, comprenant seulement le domaine de liaison à la fibronectine mais sans le domaine A de liaison au fibrinogène [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), dans la prophylaxie de PIE expérimentale à S. aureus. L. lactis ClfA a été utilisés comme agent d'immunisation contre la souche S. aureus Newman (qui a particularité de n'exprimer que le ClfA, mais pas la FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, et L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, ont été utilisé comme agents d'immunisation contre une souche isolée d'une IE, S. aureus P8 (exprimant ClfA et FnbpA). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA a généré des anticorps anti-ClfA fonctionnels, capables de bloquer la liaison de S. aureus Newman au fibrinogène in vitro et protéger 13/19 (69%) animaux d'une El due à S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles). L'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, ou L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, a généré des anticorps contre chacun de ces antigènes. Cependant, ils n'ont pas permis de bloquer l'adhésion de S. aureus P8 au fibrinogène et à la fibronectine in vitro. De plus, l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA ou L. lactis FnbpA s'est avérée inefficace in vivo (< 10% d'animaux protégés d'une El) et l'immunisation avec L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp a fourni une protection limitée de l'EI (8/23 animaux protégés; P < 0.05 comparée aux contrôles) après inoculation avec S. aureus P8. Dans l'ensemble, ces résultats indiquent que L. lactis est un système efficace pour la présentation d'antigènes in vivo et potentiellement utile pour la prévention de PEI à S. aureus. Cependant, le répertoire de protéines de surface de S. aureus capable d'évoquer une panoplie d'anticorps efficace reste à déterminer.. En résumé, notre étude a démontré expérimentalement, pour la première fois, qu'une bactériémie répétée de faible intensité, simulant la bactériémie ayant lieu, par exemple, lors des activités de la vie quotidienne, est induire un taux d'EI expérimentale similaire à celle induite par une bactériémie de haute intensité suite à une intervention médicale. Dans ce contexte, où l'utilisation d'antibiotiques est pas raisonnable, nous avons aussi montré que d'autres mesures prophylactiques, comme l'utilisation d'agents antiplaquettaires ou antithrombotiques, ou la vaccination utilisant L. lactis comme vecteur d'antigènes bactériens, sont des alternatives prometteuses qui méritent d'être étudiées plus avant. Thesis Summary Infective endocarditis (IE) is a life-threatening disease that should be prevented whenever possible. Over the last 50 years, guidelines for IE prophylaxis proposed the use of antibiotics in patients undergoing dental or medico-surgical procedures that might induce high, but transient bacteremia. However, recent epidemiological studies indicate that IE occurs independently of medico-surgical procedures and the fact that patients had taken antibiotic prophylaxis or not, i.e., by cumulative exposure to random low-grade bacteremia, associated with daily activities (e.g. tooth brushing) in the case of oral streptococci, or with a colonized site or infected device in the case of staphylococci. Accordingly, the most recent American and European guidelines for IE prophylaxis were revisited and updated to drastically restrain antibiotic use. Nevertheless, the relative risk of IE represented by such cumulative low-grade bacteremia had never been demonstrated experimentally. We developed a new model of experimental IE due to continuous inoculation of low-grade bacteremia, mimicking repeated low-grade bacteremia in humans, and compared the infectivity of Streptococcus gordonii and Staphylococcus aureus in this model to that in the model producing brief, high-level bacteremia. We demonstrated that, after injection of identical bacterial numbers, the rate of infected vegetations was similar in both types of challenge. These experimental results support the hypothesis that cumulative exposure to low-grade bacteremia, outside the context of procedure-related bacteremia, represents a genuine risk of IE, as suggested by human epidemiological studies. In addition, they validate the newer guidelines for IE prophylaxis, which drastic limit the procedures in which antibiotic prophylaxis is indicated. Nevertheless, these refreshed guidelines leave the vast majority (> 90%) of potential IE cases without alternative propositions of prevention, and novel strategies must be considered to propose effective alternative and "global" measures to prevent IE initiation. The more realistic experimental model of IE induced by low-grade bacteremia provides an accurate experimental setting to study new preventive measures applying to cumulative exposure to low bacterial numbers. Since in a context of spontaneous low-grade bacteremia antibiotics are unlikely to solve the problem of IE prevention, we addressed the role of antiplatelet and anticoagulant agents for the prophylaxis of experimental IE induced by S. gordonii and S. aureus. The logic of this approach was based on the fact that platelets are key players in vegetation formation and vegetation enlargement, and on the fact that bacteria capable of interacting with platelets are more prone to induce IE. Antiplatelet agents included the COX1 inhibitor aspirin, the inhibitor of the ADP receptor P2Y12 ticlopidine, and two inhibitors of the platelet fibrinogen receptor GPIIb/IIIa, eptifibatide and abciximab. Anticoagulants included the thrombin inhibitor dabigatran etexilate and the vitamin K antagonist acenocoumarol. Aspirin, ticlopidine or eptifibatide alone failed to prevent aortic infection (> 75% infected animals). In contrast, the combination of aspirin with ticlopidine, as well as abciximab, protected 45% to 88% of animals against IE due to S. gordonii and S. aureus. The antithrombin dabigatran etexilate protected 75% of rats against IE due to S. aureus, but failed (< 30% protection) against S. gordonii. Acenocoumarol had no effect against any bacteria. Overall, these results suggest a possible role for antiplatelet agents and dabigatran etexilate in the prophylaxis of IE in humans in a context of recurrent low- grade bacteremia. However, the potential beneficial effect of antiplatelet agents should be balanced against the risk of bleeding and the fact that platelets play an important role in the host defenses against intravascular infections. In addition, the potential dual benefit of dabigatran etexilate might be revisited in patients with prosthetic valves, who require life-long anticoagulation and in whom S. aureus IE is associated with high mortality rate. Because the antiplatelet and anticoagulant approach might be limited in the context of S. aureus bacteremia, other prophylactic strategies for the prevention of S. aureus IE, like vaccination with anti-adhesion proteins was tested. The S. aureus surface proteins fibrinogen-binding protein clumping-factor A (ClfA) and the fibronectin-binding protein A (FnbpA) are critical virulence factors for the initiation and development of IE. Thus, they represent key targets for vaccine development against this disease. Recently, numerous reports have described that the harmless bacteria Lactococcus lactis can be used as a bacterial vector for the efficient delivery of antigens in vivo, and that this approach is a promising vaccination strategy against bacterial infections. We therefore explored the immunization capacity of non- living recombinant L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, or L. lactis expressing ClfA together with Fnbp (a truncated form of FnbpA with only the fibronectin-binding domain but lacking the fibrinogen-binding domain A [L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp]), to protect against S. aureus experimental IE. L. lactis ClfA was used as immunization agent against the laboratory strain S. aureus Newman (expressing ClfA, but lacking FnbpA). L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA, as well as L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, were used as immunization agents against the endocarditis isolate S. aureus P8 (expressing both ClfA and FnbpA). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA produced anti-ClfA functional antibodies, which were able to block the binding of S. aureus Newman to fibrinogen in vitro and protect 13/19 (69%) animals from IE due to S. aureus Newman (P < 0.05 compared to controls). Immunization with L. lactis ClfA, L. lactis FnbpA or L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp, produced antibodies against each antigen. However, they were not sufficient to block S. aureus P8 binding to fibrinogen and fibronectin in vitro. Moreover, immunization with L. lactis ClfA or L. lactis FnbpA was ineffective (< 10% protected animals) and immunization with L. lactis ClfA/Fnbp conferred limited protection from IE (8/23 protected animals; P < 0.05 compared to controls) after challenge with S. aureus P8. Together, these results indicate that L. lactis is an efficient delivering antigen system potentially useful for preventing S. aureus IE. They also demonstrate that expressing multiple antigens in L. lactis, yet to be elucidated, will be necessary to prevent IE due to clinical S. aureus strains fully equipped with virulence determinants. In summary, our study has demonstrated experimentally, for the first time, the hypothesis that low-grade bacteremia, mimicking bacteremia occurring outside of a clinical intervention, is equally prone to induce experimental IE as high-grade bacteremia following medico-surgical procedures. In this context, where the use of antibiotics for the prophylaxis of IE is limited, we showed that other prophylactic measures, like the use of antiplatelets, anticoagulants, or vaccination employing L. lactis as delivery vector of bacterial antigens, are reasonable alternatives that warrant to be further investigated.

Excessive alcohol consumption in young men: is there an association with their earlier family situation? A baseline-analysis of the C-SURF-study (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors).

AIMS: To determine whether parental factors earlier in life (parenting, single parent family, parental substance use problem) are associated with patterns of alcohol consumption among young men in Switzerland. METHODS: This analysis of a population based sample from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) included 5,990 young men (mean age 19.51 years), all attending a mandatory recruitment process for the army. These conscripts reported on parental monitoring and rule-setting, parental behaviour and family structure. The alcohol use pattern was assessed through abstention, risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), volume drinking and dependence. Furthermore, the impact of age, family socio-economic status, educational level of the parents, language region and civil status was analysed. RESULTS: A parental substance use problem was positively associated with volume drinking and alcohol dependence in young Swiss men. Active parenting corresponded negatively with RSOD, volume drinking and alcohol dependence. Single parent family was not associated with a different alcohol consumption pattern compared to standard family. CONCLUSION: Parental influences earlier in life such as active parenting (monitoring, rule-setting and knowing the whereabouts) and perceived parental substance use problem are associated with alcohol drinking behaviour in young male adults. Therefore, health professionals should stress the importance of active parenting and parental substance use prevention in alcohol prevention strategies.

S-system parameter estimation for noisy metabolic profiles using newton-flow analysis.

Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.

Pseudogenes in the ENCODE regions: consensus annotation, analysis of transcription, and evolution

Arising from either retrotransposition or genomic duplication of functional genes, pseudogenes are “genomic fossils” valuable for exploring the dynamics and evolution of genes and genomes. Pseudogene identification is an important problem in computational genomics, and is also critical for obtaining an accurate picture of a genome’s structure and function. However, no consensus computational scheme for defining and detecting pseudogenes has been developed thus far. As part of the ENCyclopedia Of DNA Elements (ENCODE) project, we have compared several distinct pseudogene annotation strategies and found that different approaches and parameters often resulted in rather distinct sets of pseudogenes. We subsequently developed a consensus approach for annotating pseudogenes (derived from protein coding genes) in the ENCODE regions, resulting in 201 pseudogenes, two-thirds of which originated from retrotransposition. A survey of orthologs for these pseudogenes in 28 vertebrate genomes showed that a significant fraction (∼80%) of the processed pseudogenes are primate-specific sequences, highlighting the increasing retrotransposition activity in primates. Analysis of sequence conservation and variation also demonstrated that most pseudogenes evolve neutrally, and processed pseudogenes appear to have lost their coding potential immediately or soon after their emergence. In order to explore the functional implication of pseudogene prevalence, we have extensively examined the transcriptional activity of the ENCODE pseudogenes. We performed systematic series of pseudogene-specific RACE analyses. These, together with complementary evidence derived from tiling microarrays and high throughput sequencing, demonstrated that at least a fifth of the 201 pseudogenes are transcribed in one or more cell lines or tissues.