The influence of experience and training in a group of novice observers: a jackknife alternative free-response receiver operating characteristic analysis

Purpose - The study evaluates the pre- and post-training lesion localisation ability of a group of novice observers. Parallels are drawn with the performance of inexperienced radiographers taking part in preliminary clinical evaluation (PCE) and ‘red-dot’ systems, operating within radiography practice. Materials and methods - Thirty-four novice observers searched 92 images for simulated lesions. Pre-training and post-training evaluations were completed following the free-response the receiver operating characteristic (FROC) method. Training consisted of observer performance methodology, the characteristics of the simulated lesions and information on lesion frequency. Jackknife alternative FROC (JAFROC) and highest rating inferred ROC analyses were performed to evaluate performance difference on lesion-based and case-based decisions. The significance level of the test was set at 0.05 to control the probability of Type I error. Results - JAFROC analysis (F(3,33) = 26.34, p < 0.0001) and highest-rating inferred ROC analysis (F(3,33) = 10.65, p = 0.0026) revealed a statistically significant difference in lesion detection performance. The JAFROC figure-of-merit was 0.563 (95% CI 0.512,0.614) pre-training and 0.677 (95% CI 0.639,0.715) post-training. Highest rating inferred ROC figure-of-merit was 0.728 (95% CI 0.701,0.755) pre-training and 0.772 (95% CI 0.750,0.793) post-training. Conclusions - This study has demonstrated that novice observer performance can improve significantly. This study design may have relevance in the assessment of inexperienced radiographers taking part in PCE or commenting scheme for trauma.

A comprehensive simulation study of slotted CSMA/CA for IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

In this paper, we analyze the performance limits of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism of IEEE 802.15.4 in the beacon-enabled mode for broadcast transmissions in WSNs. The motivation for evaluating the beacon-enabled mode is due to its flexibility for WSN applications as compared to the non-beacon enabled mode. Our analysis is based on an accurate simulation model of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism on top of a realistic physical layer, with respect to the IEEE 802.15.4 standard specification. The performance of the slotted CSMA/CA is evaluated and analyzed for different network settings to understand the impact of the protocol attributes (superframe order, beacon order and backoff exponent) on the network performance, namely in terms of throughput (S), average delay (D) and probability of success (Ps). We introduce the concept of utility (U) as a combination of two or more metrics, to determine the best offered load range for an optimal behavior of the network. We show that the optimal network performance using slotted CSMA/CA occurs in the range of 35% to 60% with respect to an utility function proportional to the network throughput (S) divided by the average delay (D).

On the performance limits of slotted CSMA/CA in IEEE 802.15.4 for broadcast transmissions in wireless sensor networks

The IEEE 802.15.4 has been adopted as a communication protocol standard for Low-Rate Wireless Private Area Networks (LRWPANs). While it appears as a promising candidate solution for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), its adequacy must be carefully evaluated. In this paper, we analyze the performance limits of the slotted CSMA/CA medium access control (MAC) mechanism in the beacon-enabled mode for broadcast transmissions in WSNs. The motivation for evaluating the beacon-enabled mode is due to its flexibility and potential for WSN applications as compared to the non-beacon enabled mode. Our analysis is based on an accurate simulation model of the slotted CSMA/CA mechanism on top of a realistic physical layer, with respect to the IEEE 802.15.4 standard specification. The performance of the slotted CSMA/CA is evaluated and analyzed for different network settings to understand the impact of the protocol attributes (superframe order, beacon order and backoff exponent), the number of nodes and the data frame size on the network performance, namely in terms of throughput (S), average delay (D) and probability of success (Ps). We also analytically evaluate the impact of the slotted CSMA/CA overheads on the saturation throughput. We introduce the concept of utility (U) as a combination of two or more metrics, to determine the best offered load range for an optimal behavior of the network. We show that the optimal network performance using slotted CSMA/CA occurs in the range of 35% to 60% with respect to an utility function proportional to the network throughput (S) divided by the average delay (D).

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Numerical prediction of delamination onset in carbon/epoxy composites drilling

Despite the fact that their physical properties make them an attractive family of materials, composites machining can cause several damage modes such as delamination, fibre pull-out, thermal degradation, and others. Minimization of axial thrust force during drilling reduces the probability of delamination onset, as it has been demonstrated by analytical models based on linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM). A finite element model considering solid elements of the ABAQUS® software library and interface elements including a cohesive damage model was developed in order to simulate thrust forces and delamination onset during drilling. Thrust force results for delamination onset are compared with existing analytical models.

Contextual and individual indicators associated with the presence of teeth in adults

OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to analyze whether socioeconomic conditions and the period of availability of fluoridated water are associated with the number of teeth present.METHODSThis cross-sectional study analyzed data from 1,720 adults between 20 and 59 years of age who resided in Florianópolis, SC, Southern Brazil, in 2009. The outcome investigated was the self-reported number of teeth present. The individual independent variables included gender, age range, skin color, number of years of schooling, and per capita household income. The duration of residence was used as a control variable. The contextual exposures included the period of availability of fluoridated water to the households and the socioeconomic variable for the census tracts, which was created from factor analysis of the tract’s mean income, education level, and percentage of households with treated water. Multilevel logistic regression was performed and inter-level interactions were tested.RESULTS Residents in intermediate and poorer areas and those with fluoridated water available for less time exhibited the presence of fewer teeth compared with those in better socioeconomic conditions and who had fluoridated water available for a longer period (OR = 1.02; 95%CI 1.01;1.02). There was an association between the period of availability of fluoridated water, per capita household income and number of years of education. The proportion of individuals in the poorer and less-educated stratum, which had fewer teeth present, was higher in regions where fluoridated water had been available for less time.CONCLUSIONS Poor socioeconomic conditions and a shorter period of availability of fluoridated water were associated with the probability of having fewer teeth in adulthood. Public policies aimed at reducing socioeconomic inequalities and increasing access to health services such as fluoridation of the water supply may help to reduce tooth loss in the future.

Risk of dependence associated with health, social support, and lifestyle

OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of individuals at risk of dependence and its associated factors.METHODS The study was based on data from the Catalan Health Survey, Spain conducted in 2010 and 2011. Logistic regression models from a random sample of 3,842 individuals aged ≥ 15 years were used to classify individuals according to the state of their personal autonomy. Predictive models were proposed to identify indicators that helped distinguish dependent individuals from those at risk of dependence. Variables on health status, social support, and lifestyles were considered.RESULTS We found that 18.6% of the population presented a risk of dependence, especially after age 65. Compared with this group, individuals who reported dependence (11.0%) had difficulties performing activities of daily living and had to receive support to perform them. Habits such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and being sedentary were associated with a higher probability of dependence, particularly for women.CONCLUSIONS Difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living precede the onset of dependence. Preserving personal autonomy and function without receiving support appear to be a preventive factor. Adopting an active and healthy lifestyle helps reduce the risk of dependence.

Dynamics of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in a rural area of Argentina: III. Persistence of T. cruzi parasitemia among canine reservoirs in a two-year follow-up

A new cross-sectional survey of household- associated mongrel dogs as well as follow-up of previously parasitemic individuals was carried out in 1984 toy means of xenodiagnosis and serologic techniques to get a deeper insight into the relationship of T. cruzi parasitemia and age among canine hosts in a rural area of Argentina. Persistence of detectable parasitemia was age-independent, or at most, loosely related to age, confirming the pattern observed in 1982. Similarly no significant age-decreasing effect was recorded among seropositive dogs in: a) the probability of detecting parasites in a 2-year follow-up; b) their intensity of infectiousness (=infective force) for T. infestans 3rd-4th instar nymphs, as measured by the percentage of infected bugs observed in each dog xenodiagnosis. Moreover, not only was the infective force of seropositive dogs for bugs approximately constant through lifetime, but it was significantly higher than the one recorded for children in the present survey, and for human people by other researchers. Therefore, and since T. infestans field populations show high feeding frequencies on dogs, the latter are expected to make the greatest contribution to the pool of infected vectors in the rural household of Argentina. This characteristic should be sufficient to involve canine reservoirs definitely as a risk factor for human people residing in the same house. The increased severity of parasitemia observed among dogs in this survey may be related to the acute undernutrition characteristic of canine populations of poor rural areas in our country, which is expected to affect the ability of the host to manage the infection.

New evidence of shared dinosaur across upper jurassic proto-North Atlantic: stegosaurus from Portugal

Naturwissenschaften 94,367–374

A survey of wireless technologies coexistence in WBAN: analysis and open research issues

Wireless Body Area Network (WBAN) is the most convenient, cost-effective, accurate, and non-invasive technology for e-health monitoring. The performance of WBAN may be disturbed when coexisting with other wireless networks. Accordingly, this paper provides a comprehensive study and in-depth analysis of coexistence issues and interference mitigation solutions in WBAN technologies. A thorough survey of state-of-the art research in WBAN coexistence issues is conducted. The survey classified, discussed, and compared the studies according to the parameters used to analyze the coexistence problem. Solutions suggested by the studies are then classified according to the followed techniques and concomitant shortcomings are identified. Moreover, the coexistence problem in WBAN technologies is mathematically analyzed and formulas are derived for the probability of successful channel access for different wireless technologies with the coexistence of an interfering network. Finally, extensive simulations are conducted using OPNET with several real-life scenarios to evaluate the impact of coexistence interference on different WBAN technologies. In particular, three main WBAN wireless technologies are considered: IEEE 802.15.6, IEEE 802.15.4, and low-power WiFi. The mathematical analysis and the simulation results are discussed and the impact of interfering network on the different wireless technologies is compared and analyzed. The results show that an interfering network (e.g., standard WiFi) has an impact on the performance of WBAN and may disrupt its operation. In addition, using low-power WiFi for WBANs is investigated and proved to be a feasible option compared to other wireless technologies.

Establishment of optimal physical assets inspection frequency based on risk principles

Risk Based Inspection (RBI) is a risk methodology used as the basis for prioritizing and managing the efforts for an inspection program allowing the allocation of resources to provide a higher level of coverage on physical assets with higher risk. The main goal of RBI is to increase equipment availability while improving or maintaining the accepted level of risk. This paper presents the concept of risk, risk analysis and RBI methodology and shows an approach to determine the optimal inspection frequency for physical assets based on the potential risk and mainly on the quantification of the probability of failure. It makes use of some assumptions in a structured decision making process. The proposed methodology allows an optimization of inspection intervals deciding when the first inspection must be performed as well as the subsequent intervals of inspection. A demonstrative example is also presented to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Modified Discrete PSO to Increase the Delivered Energy Probability in Distribution energy Systems

This paper proposes a PSO based approach to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The statistical failure and repair data of distribution components is the main basis of the proposed methodology that uses a fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A Modified Discrete PSO optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

QUESTIONNAIRES IN THE SCREENING FOR Schistosoma mansoni INFECTION: A STUDY OF SOCIO DEMOGRAPHIC AND WATER CONTACT VARIABLES IN FOUR COMMUNITIES IN BRAZIL

The use of questionnaires has been recommended for identifying, at a lower cost, individuals at risk for schistosomiasis. In this study, validity of information obtained by questionnaire in the screening for Schistosoma mansoni infection was assessed in four communities in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Explanatory variables were water contact activities, sociodemographic characteristics and previous treatment for schistosomiasis. From 677, 1474, 766 and 3290 individuals eligible for stool examination in the communities, 89 to 97% participated in the study. The estimated probability of individuals to be infected, if they have all characteristics identified as independently associated with S.mansoni infection, varied from 15% in Canabrava, to 42% in Belo Horizonte, 48% in Comercinho and 80% in São José do Acácio. Our results do not support the hypothesis that a same questionnaire on risk factors could be used in screening for S.mansoni infection in different communities.

Robustness of timber structures in seismic areas

Some of the properties sought in seismic design of buildings are also considered fundamental to guarantee structural robustness. Moreover, some key concepts are common to both seismic and robustness design. In fact, both analyses consider events with a very small probability of occurrence, and consequently, a significant level of damage is admissible. As very rare events,in both cases, the actions are extremely hard to quantify. The acceptance of limited damage requires a system based analysis of structures, rather than an element by element methodology, as employed for other load cases. As for robustness analysis, in seismic design the main objective is to guarantee that the structure survives an earthquake, without extensive damage. In the case of seismic design, this is achieved by guaranteeing the dissipation of energy through plastic hinges distributed in the structure. For this to be possible, some key properties must be assured, in particular ductility and redundancy. The same properties could be fundamental in robustness design, as a structure can only sustain significant damage if capable of distributing stresses to parts of the structure unaffected by the triggering event. Timber is often used for primary load‐bearing elements in single storey long‐span structures for public buildings and arenas, where severe consequences can be expected if one or more of the primary load bearing elements fail. The structural system used for these structures consists of main frames, secondary elements and bracing elements. The main frame, composed by columns and beams, can be seen as key elements in the system and should be designed with high safety against failure and under strict quality control. The main frames may sometimes be designed with moment resisting joints between columns and beams. Scenarios, where one or more of these key elements, fail should be considered at least for high consequence buildings. Two alternative strategies may be applied: isolation of collapsing sections and, provision of alternate load paths [1]. The first one is relatively straightforward to provide by deliberately designing the secondary structural system less strong and stiff. Alternatively, the secondary structural system and the bracing system can be design so that loss of capacity in the main frame does not lead to the collapse. A case study has been selected aiming to assess the consequences of these two different strategies, in particular, under seismic loads.

The effect of temperature on mobility of Angiostrongylus costaricensis third stage larvae

Third stage larvae (L3) from Angiostrongylus costaricensis were incubated in water at room temperature and at 5 ° C and their mobility was assessed daily for 17 days. Viability was associated with the mobility and position of the L3, and it was confirmed by inoculation per os in albino mice. The number of actively moving L3 sharply decreased within 3 to 4 days, but there were some infective L3 at end of observation. A mathematical model estimated 80 days as the time required to reduce the probability of infective larvae to zero. This data does not support the proposition of refrigerating vegetables and raw food as an isolated procedure for prophylaxis of human abdominal angiostrongylosis infection.