A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Performance anxiety : cardiorespiratory activity in high- and low-anxious professional music students in a performance situation

Questionnaire studies indicate that high-anxious musicians may suffer from hyperventilation symptoms before and/or during performance. Reported symptoms include amongst others shortness of breath, fast or deep breathing, dizziness and thumping heart. A self-report study by Widmer, Conway, Cohen and Davies (1997) shows that up to seventy percent of the tested highly anxious musicians are hyperventilators during performance. However, no study has yet tested if these self-reported symptoms reflect actual cardiorespiratory changes just before and during performance. Disturbances in breathing patterns and hyperventilation may negatively affect the performance quality in stressful performance situations. The main goal of this study is to determine if music performance anxiety is manifest physiologically in specific correlates of cardiorespiratory activity. We studied 74 professional music students of Swiss Music Universities divided into two groups (high- and lowanxious) based on their self-reported performance anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory by Spielberger). The students were tested in three distinct situations: baseline, performance without audience, performance with audience. We measured a) breathing patterns, end-tidal carbon dioxide, which is a good non-invasive estimator for hyperventilation, and cardiac activation and b) self-perceived emotions and self-perceived physiological activation. Analyses of heart rate, respiratory rate, self-perceived palpitations, self-perceived shortness of breath and self-perceived anxiety for the 15 most and the 15 least anxious musicians show that high-anxious and low-anxious music students have a comparable physiological activation during the different measurement periods. However, highanxious music students feel significantly more anxious and perceive significantly stronger palpitations and significantly stronger shortness of breath just before and during a public performance. The results indicate that low- and high-anxious music students a) do not differ in the considered physiological responses and b) differ in the considered self-perceived physiological symptoms and the selfreported anxiety before and/or during a public performance.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Increased vulnerability of neurones and glial cells to low concentrations of methylmercury in a prooxidant situation.

Using reaggregating rat brain cell cultures at two different stages of differentiation, we examined the biochemical effects of a 10-day treatment with nanomolar concentrations of methylmercuric chloride (monomethylmercury), in the presence or absence of promoters of hydroxyl radical formation (10 microM copper sulphate plus 100 microM ascorbate). A decrease in total protein content accounted for the general cytotoxicity of these compounds, whereas selective effects were assessed by determining the activities of cell type-specific enzymes. Methylmercury, up to 100 nM, as well as the copper ascorbate mixture, when applied separately, induced no general cytotoxicity, and only slight effects on neuronal parameters. However, when applying 100 nM methylmercury and the copper-ascorbate mixture together, a drastic decrease in neuronal and glial parameters was found. Under these conditions, the content of reactive oxygen species, assessed by 2',7'-dichlorofluorescin oxidation, increased greatly, while the activities of antioxidant enzymes decreased. In the presence of copper and ascorbate, differentiated cultures appeared more resistant than immature ones to low methylmercury concentrations (1-10 mM), but did undergo similar changes in both cell type-specific and antioxidant enzyme activities at 100 nM methylmercury. These results suggest that in prooxidant conditions low doses of mercury can become much more deleterious for the central nervous system.

Aufftrittsangst : kardiorespiratorische Aktivität bei ängstlichen und nichtängstlichen Musikstudenten in einer Auftrittssituation = Performance anxiety : cardiorespiratory activity in high- and low-anxious professional music students in a performance situation

Fragebogenstudien haben gezeigt, dass ängstliche Musiker vor und/oder während eines Auftritts möglicherweise unter Hyperventilationssymptomen leiden. Berichtete Symptome beinhalten Kurzatmigkeit, schnelles oder tiefes Einatmen, Schwindelgefühl und Herzklopfen. Bisher hat jedoch noch keine Studie getestet, ob diese selbstberichteten Symptome tatsächlich kardiorespiratorische Veränderungen widerspiegeln. Das Hauptziel dieser Studie ist es, zu bestimmen, ob sich Auftrittsangst bei Musikern physiologisch über kardiorespiratorische Muster äußert. Wir haben insgesamt 74 Musikstudenten von Schweizer Musikhochschulen getestet. Diese Studenten wurden aufgrund ihrer selbstberichteten Auftrittsangst (STAI-S) in zwei Gruppen unterteilt: ängstliche Musiker und nichtängstliche Musiker. Die Studenten wurden in drei unterschiedlichen Situationen getestet: Ausgangszustand, Auftritt ohne Publikum, Auftritt mit Publikum. Wir haben folgende Parameter gemessen: a) kardiorespiratorische Muster und endexpiratorisches CO2, welches eine gute nichtinvasive Schätzung des Hyperventilationsgrades liefert und b) subjektiv wahrgenommene Emotionen und subjektiv wahrgenommene physiologische Aktivität. Das Poster zeigt die ersten Resultate der 15 ängstlichsten und der 15 am wenigsten ängstlichen Musiker. Das Hauptinteresse gilt den folgenden Punkten: Herz- und Atemfrequenz, subjektiv wahrgenommenes Herzklopfen, subjektiv wahrgenommene Kurzatmigkeit und subjektiv wahrgenommenes Angstgefühl. Die Resultate dieser Studie zeigen erstens, dass ängstliche und nichtängstliche Musikstudenten zu den verschiedenen Messzeitpunkten eine vergleichbare physiologische Aktivität aufweisen und zweitens, dass ängstliche Musikstudenten ein signifikant höheres Angstgefühl haben und signifikant mehr Herzklopfen und Kurzatmigkeit wahrnehmen vor und/oder während eines Auftritts mit Publikum. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass sich ängstliche und nichtängstliche Musikstudenten a) bezüglich der subjektiv wahrgenommenen physiologischen Symptome und des selbst berichteten Angstgefühls vor und/oder während eines öffentlichen Auftritts unterscheiden und sich b) bezüglich der untersuchten physiologischen Reaktionen nicht unterscheiden.

Dépistage de l'athérosclérose: point de la situation en 2006. [Screening for atherosclerosis: 2006 update].

In recent years, several screening tests for subclinical atherosclerosis have been developed. The aim of these tests is to be able to better target preventive therapies to patients at high cardiovascular risk. However, the validity of these screening tests has not been well established for wide use in clinical practice. Being aware of these tests results might also enhance patient motivation to change unhealthy behaviors, such as smoking. However, the effectiveness of such strategy has been poorly studied. Early therapy of atherosclerosis has not been shown to improve clinical outcomes yet. Moreover, potential harms of such screening, such as induced anxiety, have been poorly studied. Although promising, such screening should be validated by clinical trials before routine use in clinical practice.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Music Performance Anxiety (MPA) : cardiorespiratory activity in high- and low-anxious professional music students before a performance situation

Descriptors: music performance anxiety, respiration, hyperventilation Surveys indicate that high-anxious musicians may suffer from hyperventilation (HV) before or during performance. Reported symptoms include shortness of breath, fast/ deep breathing and thumping heart. However, no study has yet tested if these selfreported symptoms reflect actual cardiorespiratory activity. Themain goal of this study was to determine if MPA is manifested physiologically in specific correlates of cardiorespiratory activity associated with HV.We studied 74 professional music students from Swiss Music Academies. In this study, we compared the most anxious students (highanxious; n 5 20) with the least anxious students (low-anxious; n 5 23) based on their self-reported performance anxiety. We measured cardiorespiratory patterns with the Lifeshirt system, end-tidal CO2 with a capnograph (EtCO2, a good non-invasive estimator of HV), self-perceived physiological activation and affective experience in three situations on different days: baseline, performance without audience, and performance with audience. Comparing measures for the private vs. the public concert, high- compared to low-anxious students showed a significant drop in EtCO2 before the public concert and reported larger increases in anxiety, tension, palpitations and breathing difficulties. In contrast, heart rate, respiratory rate and volume did not differ significantly between groups. The results of this study support the hypothesis thatMPA may be associated with a tendency to hyperventilate and, thus, point to a potential hyperventilation problem in high-anxious music students.

Configurations de proches et adaptation dans le parcours de vie d'individus en situation de vulnérabilité

L'importance des proches et le rôle primordial des relations familiales pour l'adaptation et l'ajustement psychologique des individus sont largement reconnus. Cependant, peu d'études ont considéré que, dans la modernité avancée, les réseaux de proches ou familiaux sont diversifiés, caractérisés par des interdépendances complexes. La littérature sur les relations interpersonnelles et l'adaptation a négligé cette diversité et omis que les interdépendances structurales, de soutien mais aussi de conflit, pouvaient s'avérer importantes à considérer en regard de l'adaptation et de l'ajustement psychologique des individus. La présente thèse apporte des éléments de compréhension sur le lien entre les configurations de proches et l'adaptation individuelle dans le parcours de vie, en se centrant sur des individus en situation de vulnérabilité, que ce soit parce qu'ils font l'expérience d'une transition importante de leur parcours, ou en raison d'un manque de ressources psychologiques, cognitives et/ou sociales. Des résultats empiriques éclairent quatre grands axes de questionnement portant sur les ressources et le stress présents dans les interdépendances au sein des configurations familiales et de proches, sur leur association avec l'ajustement psychologique des individus, sur leur évolution au cours du temps, ainsi que sur la façon dont ces interdépendances sont façonnées par les trajectoires de vie. Les résultats mettent en évidence une diversité de configurations familiales ou de proches, qui donne lieu à des degrés inégaux de ressources, significativement associées à l'ajustement psychologique. Cependant, les interdépendances au sein des configurations ne constituent que rarement des ressources ou un facteur protecteur pour les individus en situation de vulnérabilité mais, au contraire, elles génèrent du stress supplémentaire. L'exploration longitudinale met en évidence une importante instabilité dans les configurations familiales et de proches des individus en situation de vulnérabilité qui compromet leur adaptation et leur ajustement psychologique.

mGPT: a probabilistic planner based on heuristic search

We describe the version of the GPT planner to be used in the planning competition. This version, called mGPT, solves mdps specified in the ppddllanguage by extracting and using different classes of lower bounds, along with various heuristic-search algorithms. The lower bounds are extracted from deterministic relaxations of the mdp where alternativeprobabilistic effects of an action are mapped into different, independent, deterministic actions. The heuristic-search algorithms, on the other hand, use these lower bounds for focusing the updates and delivering a consistent value function over all states reachable from the initial state with the greedy policy.