Zygosity Diagnosis in the Absence of Genotypic Data: An Approach Using Latent Class Analysis

For zygosity diagnosis in the absence of genotypic data, or in the recruitment phase of a twin study where only single twins from same-sex pairs are being screened, or to provide a test for sample duplication leading to the false identification of a dizygotic pair as monozygotic, the appropriate analysis of respondents' answers to questions about zygosity is critical. Using data from a young adult Australian twin cohort (N = 2094 complete pairs and 519 singleton twins from same-sex pairs with complete responses to all zygosity items), we show that application of latent class analysis (LCA), fitting a 2-class model, yields results that show good concordance with traditional methods of zygosity diagnosis, but with certain important advantages. These include the ability, in many cases, to assign zygosity with specified probability on the basis of responses of a single informant (advantageous when one zygosity type is being oversampled); and the ability to quantify the probability of misassignment of zygosity, allowing prioritization of cases for genotyping as well as identification of cases of probable laboratory error. Out of 242 twins (from 121 like-sex pairs) where genotypic data were available for zygosity confirmation, only a single case was identified of incorrect zygosity assignment by the latent class algorithm. Zygosity assignment for that single case was identified by the LCA as uncertain (probability of being a monozygotic twin only 76%), and the co-twin's responses clearly identified the pair as dizygotic (probability of being dizygotic 100%). In the absence of genotypic data, or as a safeguard against sample duplication, application of LCA for zygosity assignment or confirmation is strongly recommended.

The immediate effects of atlanto-occipital joint manipulation and suboccipital muscle inhibition technique on active mouth opening and pressure pain sensitivity over latent myofascial trigger points in the masticatory muscles

DESIGN: A randomized controlled trial.OB JECTIVE: To investigate the immediate effects on pressure pain thresholds over latent trigger points (TrPs) in the masseter and temporalis muscles and active mouth opening following atlanto-occipital joint thrust manipulation or a soft tissue manual intervention targeted to the suboccipital muscles. BACKGROUND : Previous studies have described hypoalgesic effects of neck manipulative interventions over TrPs in the cervical musculature. There is a lack of studies analyzing these mechanisms over TrPs of muscles innervated by the trigeminal nerve. METHODS: One hundred twenty-two volunteers, 31 men and 91 women, between the ages of 18 and 30 years, with latent TrPs in the masseter muscle, were randomly divided into 3 groups: a manipulative group who received an atlanto-occipital joint thrust, a soft tissue group who received an inhibition technique over the suboccipital muscles, and a control group who did not receive an intervention. Pressure pain thresholds over latent TrPs in the masseter and temporalis muscles, and active mouth opening were assessed pretreatment and 2 minutes posttreatment by a blinded assessor. Mixed-model analyses of variance (ANOVA) were used to examine the effects of interventions on each outcome, with group as the between-subjects variable and time as the within-subjects variable. The primary analysis was the group-by-time interaction. RESULTS: The 2-by-3 mixed-model ANOVA revealed a significant group-by-time interaction for changes in pressure pain thresholds over masseter (P<.01) and temporalis (P =.003) muscle latent TrPs and also for active mouth opening (P<.001) in favor of the manipulative and soft tissue groups. Between-group effect sizes were small. CONCLUSIONS: The application of an atlanto-occipital thrust manipulation or soft tissue technique targeted to the suboccipital muscles led to an immediate increase in pressure pain thresholds over latent TrPs in the masseter and temporalis muscles and an increase in maximum active mouth opening. Nevertheless, the effects of both interventions were small and future studies are required to elucidate the clinical relevance of these changes. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE : Therapy, level 1b. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2010;40(5):310-317. doi:10.2519/jospt.2010.3257. KEYWORDSDS: cervical manipulation, muscle trigger points, neck, TMJ, upper cervical.

Increase of the delivered energy probability in DES using a fuzzy probabilistic modeling

The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

Hybrid fuzzy Monte Carlo and logic programming model for distribution network reconfiguration in the presence of outages

This paper presents a methodology for distribution networks reconfiguration in outage presence in order to choose the reconfiguration that presents the lower power losses. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. Once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation, a logical programming algorithm is applied to get all possible reconfigurations for every system state. In order to evaluate the line flows and bus voltages and to identify if there is any overloading, and/or voltage violation a distribution power flow has been applied to select the feasible reconfiguration with lower power losses. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo mathematical model for load curtailment minimization in transmission power systems

This paper presents a methodology which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states by Monte Carlo simulation. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on optimal power flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. In order to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology to a practical case, the paper will include a case study for the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 BUS.

Fuzzy Monte Carlo model for transmission power systems reliability based decision making

This thesis presents the Fuzzy Monte Carlo Model for Transmission Power Systems Reliability based studies (FMC-TRel) methodology, which is based on statistical failure and repair data of the transmission power system components and uses fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for system component outage parameters. Using statistical records allows developing the fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters. The proposed hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models allows catching both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters. A network contingency analysis to identify any overloading or voltage violation in the network is performed once obtained the system states. This is followed by a remedial action algorithm, based on Optimal Power Flow, to reschedule generations and alleviate constraint violations and, at the same time, to avoid any load curtailment, if possible, or, otherwise, to minimize the total load curtailment, for the states identified by the contingency analysis. For the system states that cause load curtailment, an optimization approach is applied to reduce the probability of occurrence of these states while minimizing the costs to achieve that reduction. This methodology is of most importance for supporting the transmission system operator decision making, namely in the identification of critical components and in the planning of future investments in the transmission power system. A case study based on Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Bus is presented to illustrate with detail the application of the proposed methodology.

Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanical properties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the Probabilistic Model Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic models for the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Mathematical model for HIV dynamics in HIV-specific helper cells

In this paper we study a delay mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV in HIV-specific CD4 + T helper cells. We modify the model presented by Roy and Wodarz in 2012, where the HIV dynamics is studied, considering a single CD4 + T cell population. Non-specific helper cells are included as alternative target cell population, to account for macrophages and dendritic cells. In this paper, we include two types of delay: (1) a latent period between the time target cells are contacted by the virus particles and the time the virions enter the cells and; (2) virus production period for new virions to be produced within and released from the infected cells. We compute the reproduction number of the model, R0, and the local stability of the disease free equilibrium and of the endemic equilibrium. We find that for values of R0<1, the model approaches asymptotically the disease free equilibrium. For values of R0>1, the model approximates asymptotically the endemic equilibrium. We observe numerically the phenomenon of backward bifurcation for values of R0⪅1. This statement will be proved in future work. We also vary the values of the latent period and the production period of infected cells and free virus. We conclude that increasing these values translates in a decrease of the reproduction number. Thus, a good strategy to control the HIV virus should focus on drugs to prolong the latent period and/or slow down the virus production. These results suggest that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well-posed.

Probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures

In developed countries, civil infrastructures are one of the most significant investments of governments, corporations, and individuals. Among these, transportation infrastructures, including highways, bridges, airports, and ports, are of huge importance, both economical and social. Most developed countries have built a fairly complete network of highways to fit their needs. As a result, the required investment in building new highways has diminished during the last decade, and should be further reduced in the following years. On the other hand, significant structural deteriorations have been detected in transportation networks, and a huge investment is necessary to keep these infrastructures safe and serviceable. Due to the significant importance of bridges in the serviceability of highway networks, maintenance of these structures plays a major role. In this paper, recent progress in probabilistic maintenance and optimization strategies for deteriorating civil infrastructures with emphasis on bridges is summarized. A novel model including interaction between structural safety analysis,through the safety index, and visual inspections and non destructive tests, through the condition index, is presented. Single objective optimization techniques leading to maintenance strategies associated with minimum expected cumulative cost and acceptable levels of condition and safety are presented. Furthermore, multi-objective optimization is used to simultaneously consider several performance indicators such as safety, condition, and cumulative cost. Realistic examples of the application of some of these techniques and strategies are also presented.

Combining open and closed world reasoning for the semantic web

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Informática

Probabilistic constraint reasoning

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Informática, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The fitting of the German yield curve: A dynamic approach using latent, macroeconomic and stock market variables

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Learning Activities with Semantic. Hypermedia in Higher Education

The increasing use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in diverse professional and personal contexts calls for new knowledge, and a set of abilities, competences and attitudes, for an active and participative citizenship. In this context it is acknowledged that universities have an important role innovating in the educational use of digital media to promote an inclusive digital literacy. The educational potential of digital technologies and resources has been recognized by both researchers and practitioners. Multiple pedagogical models and research approaches have already contributed to put in evidence the importance of adapting instructional and learning practices and processes to concrete contexts and educational goals. Still, academic and scientific communities believe further investments in ICT research is needed in higher education. This study focuses on educational models that may contribute to support digital technology uses, where these can have cognitive and educational relevance when compared to analogical technologies. A teaching and learning model, centered in the active role of the students in the exploration, production, presentation and discussion of interactive multimedia materials, was developed and applied using the internet and exploring emergent semantic hypermedia formats. The research approach focused on the definition of design principles for developing class activities that were applied in three different iterations in undergraduate courses from two institutions, namely the University of Texas at Austin, USA and the University of Lisbon, Portugal. The analysis of this study made possible to evaluate the potential and efficacy of the model proposed and the authoring tool chosen in the support of metacognitive skills and attitudes related to information structuring and management, storytelling and communication, using computers and the internet.

Semantic enrichment of knowledge sources supported by domain ontologies

This thesis introduces a novel conceptual framework to support the creation of knowledge representations based on enriched Semantic Vectors, using the classical vector space model approach extended with ontological support. One of the primary research challenges addressed here relates to the process of formalization and representation of document contents, where most existing approaches are limited and only take into account the explicit, word-based information in the document. This research explores how traditional knowledge representations can be enriched through incorporation of implicit information derived from the complex relationships (semantic associations) modelled by domain ontologies with the addition of information presented in documents. The relevant achievements pursued by this thesis are the following: (i) conceptualization of a model that enables the semantic enrichment of knowledge sources supported by domain experts; (ii) development of a method for extending the traditional vector space, using domain ontologies; (iii) development of a method to support ontology learning, based on the discovery of new ontological relations expressed in non-structured information sources; (iv) development of a process to evaluate the semantic enrichment; (v) implementation of a proof-of-concept, named SENSE (Semantic Enrichment kNowledge SourcEs), which enables to validate the ideas established under the scope of this thesis; (vi) publication of several scientific articles and the support to 4 master dissertations carried out by the department of Electrical and Computer Engineering from FCT/UNL. It is worth mentioning that the work developed under the semantic referential covered by this thesis has reused relevant achievements within the scope of research European projects, in order to address approaches which are considered scientifically sound and coherent and avoid “reinventing the wheel”.

Probabilistic constraint reasoning with Monte Carlo integration to robot localization

This work studies the combination of safe and probabilistic reasoning through the hybridization of Monte Carlo integration techniques with continuous constraint programming. In continuous constraint programming there are variables ranging over continuous domains (represented as intervals) together with constraints over them (relations between variables) and the goal is to find values for those variables that satisfy all the constraints (consistent scenarios). Constraint programming “branch-and-prune” algorithms produce safe enclosures of all consistent scenarios. Special proposed algorithms for probabilistic constraint reasoning compute the probability of sets of consistent scenarios which imply the calculation of an integral over these sets (quadrature). In this work we propose to extend the “branch-and-prune” algorithms with Monte Carlo integration techniques to compute such probabilities. This approach can be useful in robotics for localization problems. Traditional approaches are based on probabilistic techniques that search the most likely scenario, which may not satisfy the model constraints. We show how to apply our approach in order to cope with this problem and provide functionality in real time.