Present orientation, future orientation and alcohol use in Northern Irish adolescents

Earlier initiation into more problematic drinking behaviour has been found to be associated with more problematic drinking later in life. Research has suggested that a lower future time perspective (and higher present time perspective) is associated with health-compromising behaviours such as problematic alcohol use in college student, University undergraduate and general population samples. This study used a cross-sectional design to examine whether consideration of future consequences (CFC), assessed by the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale, was significantly related to drinking behaviour in a large sample (n=707) of Northern Irish adolescents. Alcohol use was self-reported by means of a composite measure of drinking behaviour. Demographic data were also gathered. After controlling for year in school (proxy for age), sex and for clustering at school level, lower future orientation and higher present orientation were found to be significantly associated with more problematic self-reported drinking behaviour. These results extend recent findings of a significant relationship between a foreshortened future time perspective and more problematic self-reported drinking behaviour in a UK sample of University undergraduates, to a large UK sample of adolescents. Given the relationship between early-onset drinking and more problematic use in later life, health promotion interventions might explore using the CFC construct in targeting adolescent drinkers.

High content analysis: A sensitive tool to detect and quantify the cytotoxic, synergistic and antagonistic effects of chemical contaminants in foods

Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), ochratoxin A (OTA) and fumonisin B1 (FB1) are important mycotoxins in terms of
human exposure via food, their toxicity and regulatory limits that exist worldwide. Mixtures of toxins can frequently be present in foods, however due to the complications of determining their combined toxicity,
legal limits of exposure are determined for single compounds, based on long standing toxicological
techniques. High content analysis (HCA) may be a useful tool to determine total toxicity of complex
mixtures of mycotoxins. Endpoints including cell number (CN), nuclear intensity (NI), nuclear area (NA),
plasma membrane permeability (PMP), mitochondrial membrane potential (MMP) and mitochondrial
mass (MM) were compared to the conventional 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5 diphenyltetrazolium
bromide (MTT) and neutral red (NR) endpoints in MDBK cells. Individual concentrations of each
mycotoxin (OTA 3mg/ml, FB1 8mg/ml and AFB11.28mg/ml) revealed no cytotoxicity with MTTor NR but
HCA showed significant cytotoxic effects up to 41.6% (p0.001) and 10.1% (p0.05) for OTA and AFB1,
respectively. The tertiary mixture (OTA 3mg/ml, FB1 8mg/ml and AFB1 1.28mg/ml) detected up to 37.3%
and 49.8% more cytotoxicity using HCA over MTT and NR, respectively. Whilst binary combinations of
OTA (3mg/ml) and FB1 (8mg/ml) revealed synergistic interactions using HCA (MMP, MM, NI endpoints)
not detected using MTT or NR. HCA is a highly novel and sensitive tool that could substantially help
determine future regulatory limits, for single and combined toxins present in food, ensuring legislation is based on true risks to human health exposure.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Video surveillance : past, present, and now the future

Video surveillance is a part of our daily life, even though we may not necessarily realize it. We might be monitored on the street, on highways, at ATMs, in public transportation vehicles, inside private and public buildings, in the elevators, in front of our television screens, next to our baby?s cribs, and any spot one can set a camera.

Statistical–dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to determine present day and future high-resolution rainfall distributions in the catchment of the river Aksu at the southern slopes of the Tienshan Mountains, Central Asia. First, a circulation weather type (CWT) classification is employed to define typical lower atmospheric flow regimes from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Selected representatives of each CWT are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM 4.8 at a horizontal grid resolution of 0.0625°, using the ERA-40 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. Finally, the simulated representatives are recombined to obtain a high-resolution rainfall climatology for present day climate. The methodology is also applied to ensemble simulations of three different scenarios of the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 to derive projections of rainfall changes until 2100. Comparisons of downscaled seasonal and annual rainfall with observational data suggest that the statistical–dynamical approach is appropriate to capture the observed present-day precipitation climatology over the low lands and the first elevations of the Tienshan Mountains. On the other hand, a strong bias is found at higher altitudes, where precipitation is clearly underestimated by SDD. The application of SDD to the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble reveals that precipitation changes by the end of the 21st century depend on the season. While for autumn an increase of seasonal precipitation is found for all simulations, a decrease in precipitation is obtained during winter for most parts of the Aksu catchment. The spread between different ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 ensemble members is strongest in spring, where trends of opposite sign are found. The largest changes in rainfall are simulated for the summer season, which also shows the most pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Most ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 realizations indicate a decrease of annual precipitation over large parts of the Tienshan, and an increase restricted to the southeast of the study area. These results provide a good basis for downscaling present-day and future rainfall distributions for hydrological purposes.

The present state and future prospects of the environment in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Crisis en América Latina: su evaluación y perspectivas = Crisis in Latin America: present situation and future outlook

Incluye Bibliografía

Crisis y desarrollo: presente y futuro de América Latina y el Caribe. Vol 1: Transformación y crisis: América Latina y el Caribe 1950-1984 = Crisis and development: the present situation and future prospects of Latin America and the Caribbean. Vol 1: Change and crisis: Latin America and the Caribbean 1950-1984

Incluye Bibliografía

Crisis y desarrollo: presente y futuro de América Latina y el Caribe. Vol 3: Desafíos y opciones para el desarrollo futuro = Crisis and development: the present situation and future prospects of Latin America and the Caribbean. Vol. 3: Challenges and options for future development

Se refiere a las orientaciones que podrian imprimirse al desarrollo economico y social en el mediano y largo plazo, en particular en los proximos diez anos, aunque tambien considera una perspectiva de mas largo plazo vinculada, entre otros aspectos, a modificaciones de la economia internacional.

Crisis en America Latina: su evaluación y perspectivas = Crisis in Latin America: present situation and future outlook

Incluye Bibliografía