Refining predictions of iberian plant distribution: lessons from p. nigra and p. sylvestris palaeoecological-based habitat suitability models

In recent years, challenged by the climate scenarios put forward by the IPCC and its potential impact on plant distribution, numerous predictive techniques -including the so called habitat suitability models (HSM)- have been developed. Yet, as the output of the different methods produces different distribution areas, developing validation tools are strong needs to reduce uncertainties. Focused in the Iberian Peninsula, we propose a palaeo-based method to increase the robustness of the HSM, by developing an ecological approach to understand the mismatches between the palaeoecological information and the projections of the HSMs. Here, we present the result of (1) investigating causal relationships between environmental variables and presence of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. nigra Arn. available from the 3rd Spanish Forest Inventory, (2) developing present and past presence-predictions through the MaxEnt model for 6 and 21 kyr BP, and (3) assessing these models through comparisons with biomized palaeoecological data available from the European Pollen Database for the Iberian Peninsula.

Predicting and understanding spatio-temporal dynamics of species recovery : implications for Asian crested ibis Nipponia nippon conservation in China

Acknowledgements This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31372218) and cofunded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC) and the ITC Research Fund, Enschede, the Netherlands. We thank Shaanxi Hanzhong Crested Ibis National Nature Reserve for sharing the data of nest site locations. We are grateful to Brendan Wintle, Justin Travis and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on a previous version of the manuscript.

Statistical prediction of single-stranded regions in RNA secondary structure and application to predicting effective antisense target sites and beyond

Single-stranded regions in RNA secondary structure are important for RNA–RNA and RNA–protein interactions. We present a probability profile approach for the prediction of these regions based on a statistical algorithm for sampling RNA secondary structures. For the prediction of phylogenetically-determined single-stranded regions in secondary structures of representative RNA sequences, the probability profile offers substantial improvement over the minimum free energy structure. In designing antisense oligonucleotides, a practical problem is how to select a secondary structure for the target mRNA from the optimal structure(s) and many suboptimal structures with similar free energies. By summarizing the information from a statistical sample of probable secondary structures in a single plot, the probability profile not only presents a solution to this dilemma, but also reveals ‘well-determined’ single-stranded regions through the assignment of probabilities as measures of confidence in predictions. In antisense application to the rabbit β-globin mRNA, a significant correlation between hybridization potential predicted by the probability profile and the degree of inhibition of in vitro translation suggests that the probability profile approach is valuable for the identification of effective antisense target sites. Coupling computational design with DNA–RNA array technique provides a rational, efficient framework for antisense oligonucleotide screening. This framework has the potential for high-throughput applications to functional genomics and drug target validation.

A comparison of the potential role of the tetrodotoxin-insensitive sodium channels, PN3/SNS and NaN/SNS2, in rat models of chronic pain

Alterations in sodium channel expression and function have been suggested as a key molecular event underlying the abnormal processing of pain after peripheral nerve or tissue injury. Although the relative contribution of individual sodium channel subtypes to this process is unclear, the biophysical properties of the tetrodotoxin-resistant current, mediated, at least in part, by the sodium channel PN3 (SNS), suggests that it may play a specialized, pathophysiological role in the sustained, repetitive firing of the peripheral neuron after injury. Moreover, this hypothesis is supported by evidence demonstrating that selective “knock-down” of PN3 protein in the dorsal root ganglion with specific antisense oligodeoxynucleotides prevents hyperalgesia and allodynia caused by either chronic nerve or tissue injury. In contrast, knock-down of NaN/SNS2 protein, a sodium channel that may be a second possible candidate for the tetrodotoxin-resistant current, appears to have no effect on nerve injury-induced behavioral responses. These data suggest that relief from chronic inflammatory or neuropathic pain might be achieved by selective blockade or inhibition of PN3 expression. In light of the restricted distribution of PN3 to sensory neurons, such an approach might offer effective pain relief without a significant side-effect liability.

Prediction of protein folding class using global description of amino acid sequence.

We present a method for predicting protein folding class based on global protein chain description and a voting process. Selection of the best descriptors was achieved by a computer-simulated neural network trained on a data base consisting of 83 folding classes. Protein-chain descriptors include overall composition, transition, and distribution of amino acid attributes, such as relative hydrophobicity, predicted secondary structure, and predicted solvent exposure. Cross-validation testing was performed on 15 of the largest classes. The test shows that proteins were assigned to the correct class (correct positive prediction) with an average accuracy of 71.7%, whereas the inverse prediction of proteins as not belonging to a particular class (correct negative prediction) was 90-95% accurate. When tested on 254 structures used in this study, the top two predictions contained the correct class in 91% of the cases.

Saproxylic Beetle Assemblage Selection as Determining Factor of Species Distributional Patterns: Implications for Conservation

The knowledge of the distributional patterns of saproxylic beetles is essential for conservation biology due to the relevance of this fauna in the maintenance of ecological processes and the endangerment of species. The complex community of saproxylic beetles is shaped by different assemblages that are composed of species linked by the microhabitats they use. We evaluate how different the species distribution patterns that are obtained can be, depending on the analyzed assemblage and to what extent these can affect conservation decisions. Beetles were sampled using hollow emergence and window traps in three protected areas of the Iberian Peninsula. Species richness, composition, and diversity turnover were analyzed for each sampling method and showed high variation depending on the analyzed assemblage. Beta diversity was clearly higher among forests for the assemblage captured using window traps. This method collects flying insects from different tree microhabitats and its captures are influenced by the forest structuring. Within forests, the assemblages captured by hollow emergence traps, which collect the fauna linked to tree hollows, showed the largest turnover of species, as they are influenced by the characteristics of each cavity. Moreover, the selection of the forest showing the highest species richness strongly depended on the studied assemblage. This study demonstrates that differences in the studied assemblages (group of species co-occurring in the same habitat) can also lead to significant differences in the identified patterns of species distribution and diversity turnover. This fact will be necessary to take into consideration when making decisions about conservation and management.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.

Occurrence of species-indicators and zooplankton biomass in the Barents Sea in September-October 1997

Samples of zooplankton were collected in the Barents Sea during cruise 11 of R/V Akademik Sergey Vavilov in September-October 1997. Three different sampling methods were used: 30 l bottle, Judey net, and BR net. More than 40 species of zooplankton were revealed. The greatest species diversity occurred in zones of junction of waters of different origin. Within the 100 m upper water layer zooplankton biomass was rather high: aver. 32 g/m**2. The highest biomass was observed in the northeastern part of the region under study and over the shelf of the Russkaya Gavan' Bay. The lowest biomass occurred in the southern part and in the region of the Gusinaya Banka. The average autumn value of zooplankton biomass in the 100 m upper layer (321 mg/m**3) slightly exceeded the multiannual average for the summer period (200 mg/m**3)

An assessment of the potential for using Alaskan coal in California /

"UCRL-52511."

Quantitative prediction of phase diagrams for polymer partitioning in aqueous two-phase systems

Published polymer distribution data for aqueous poly(ethylene glycol)/dextran mixtures have been reassessed to illustrate the feasibility of their quantitative characterization in terms of the Flory-Huggins theory of polymer thermodynamics. Phase diagrams predicted by this characterization procedure provide better descriptions of the experimental data than those based on an earlier, oversimplified treatment in similar terms. (C) 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Selection of species and provenances for low-rainfall areas: physiological responses of Eucalyptus cloeziana and Eucalyptus argophloia to seasonal conditions in subtropical Queensland

Responses of stomatal conductance (g(s)) and net photosynthesis (A) to changes in soil water availability, photosynthetic photon flux density (Q), air temperature (1) and leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit (D) were investigated in 4-year-old trees of a dry inland provenance of Eucalyptus argophloia Blakely, and two dry inland provenances (Coominglah and Hungry Hills) and a humid coastal provenance (Wolvi) of Eucalyptus cloeziana F. Muell. between April 2001 and April 2002 in southeast Queensland, Australia. There were minimal differences in A, g, and water relations variables among the coastal and inland provenances of E. cloeziana but large differences between E. argophloia and E. cloeziana. E. argophloia and to a lesser extent the Hungry Hills (inland) provenance of E. cloeziana maintained relatively higher pre-dawn water potential (psi(pd)) during the dry season suggesting possible access to water at depth. Simple phenomenological models of stomatal conductance as a function of Q, T and D explained 60% of variation in gs in E. cloeziana and more than 75% in E. argophloia, when seasonal effect was incorporated in the model. A Ball-Berry model for net photosynthesis explained between 70 and 80% of observed variation in A in both species. These results have implications in matching the dry and humid provenances of E. cloeziana and E. argophloia to suitable sites in subtropical environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measurement and prediction of energy expenditure in males during household and garden tasks

Participation in at least 30 min of moderate intensity activity on most days is assumed to confer health benefits. This study accordingly determined whether the more vigorous household and garden tasks (sweeping, window cleaning, vacuuming and lawn mowing) are performed by middle-aged men at a moderate intensity of 3-6 metabolic equivalents (METs) in the laboratory and at home. Measured energy expenditure during self-perceived moderate-paced walking was used as a marker of exercise intensity. Energy expenditure was also predicted via indirect methods. Thirty-six males [Xmacr (SD): 40.0 (3.3) years; 179.5 (6.9) cm; 83.4 (14.0) kg] were measured for resting metabolic rate (RMR) and oxygen consumption (V.O-2) during the five activities using the Douglas bag method. Heart rate , respiratory frequency, CSA (Computer Science Applications) movement counts, Borg scale ratings of perceived exertion and Quetelet's index were also recorded as potential predictors of exercise intensity. Except for vacuuming in the laboratory, which was not significantly different from 3.0 METs (P=0.98), the MET means in the laboratory and home were all significantly greater than 3.0 (Pless than or equal to0.006). The sweeping and vacuuming MET means were significantly higher (P

Prediction of BRCA1 status in patients with breast cancer using estrogen receptor and basal phenotype

Purpose: To investigate the proportion of breast cancers arising inpatients with germ line BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations expressing basal markers and developing predictive tests for identification of high-risk patients. Experimental Design: Histopathologic material from 182 tumors in BRCA1 mutation carriers, 63 BRCA2 carriers, and 109 controls, collected as part of the international Breast Cancer Linkage Consortium were immunohistochemically stained for CK14, CK5/6, CK17, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), and osteonectin. Results: All five basal markers were commoner in BRCA1 tumors than in control tumors (CK14: 61% versus 12%; CK5/6: 58% versus 7%; CK17: 53% versus 10%; osteonectin: 43% versus 19%; EGFR: 67% versus 21%; P < 0.0001 in each case). In a multivariate analysis, CK14, CK5/6, and estrogen receptor (ER) remained significant predictors of BRCA1 carrier status. In contrast, the frequency of basal markers in BRCA2 tumors did not differ significant from controls. Conclusion: The use of cytokeratin staining in combination with ER and morphology provides a more accurate predictor of BRCA1 mutation status than previously available, that may be useful in selecting patients for BRCA1 mutation testing. The high percentage of BRCA1 cases positive for EGFR suggests that specific anti-tyrosine kinase therapy may be of potential benefit in these patients.