The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Modeling the viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia : an object-oriented Bayesian network approach

Conservation of free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations is multi faceted and needs to be addressed from an ecological, biological and management perspective. There is a wealth of published research, each focusing on a particular aspect of cheetah conservation. Identifying the most important factors, making sense of various (and sometimes contrasting) findings, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing conservationists. Bayesian networks (BN) provide a statistical modeling framework that enables analysis and integration of information addressing different aspects of conservation. There has been an increased interest in the use of BNs to model conservation issues, however the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilizing object-oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. We describe an integrated, parallel modeling process followed during a BN modeling workshop held in Namibia to combine expert knowledge and data about free-ranging cheetahs. The aim of the workshop was to obtain a more comprehensive view of the current viability of the free-ranging cheetah population in Namibia, and to predict the effect different scenarios may have on the future viability of this free-ranging cheetah population. Furthermore, a complementary aim was to identify influential parameters of the model to more effectively target those parameters having the greatest impact on population viability. The BN was developed by aggregating diverse perspectives from local and independent scientists, agents from the national ministry, conservation agency members and local fieldworkers. This integrated BN approach facilitates OO modeling in a multi-expert context which lends itself to a series of integrated, yet independent, subnetworks describing different scientific and management components. We created three subnetworks in parallel: a biological, ecological and human factors network, which were then combined to create a complete representation of free-ranging cheetah population viability. Such OOBNs have widespread relevance to the effective and targeted conservation management of vulnerable and endangered species.

Monitoring and benchmarking population diet quality globally : a step-wise approach

INFORMAS (International Network for Food and Obesity/non-communicable diseases Research, Monitoring and Action Support) aims to monitor and benchmark the healthiness of food environments globally. In order to assess the impact of food environments on population diets, it is necessary to monitor population diet quality between countries and over time. This paper reviews existing data sources suitable for monitoring population diet quality, and assesses their strengths and limitations. A step-wise framework is then proposed for monitoring population diet quality. Food balance sheets (FBaS), household budget and expenditure surveys (HBES) and food intake surveys are all suitable methods for assessing population diet quality. In the proposed ‘minimal’ approach, national trends of food and energy availability can be explored using FBaS. In the ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ approaches, the dietary share of ultra-processed products is measured as an indicator of energy-dense, nutrient-poor diets using HBES and food intake surveys, respectively. In addition, it is proposed that pre-defined diet quality indices are used to score diets, and some of those have been designed for application within all three monitoring approaches. However, in order to enhance the value of global efforts to monitor diet quality, data collection methods and diet quality indicators need further development work.

Advantages of exploiting projection structure for segmenting dense 3D point clouds

Timely and comprehensive scene segmentation is often a critical step for many high level mobile robotic tasks. This paper examines a projected area based neighbourhood lookup approach with the motivation towards faster unsupervised segmentation of dense 3D point clouds. The proposed algorithm exploits the projection geometry of a depth camera to find nearest neighbours which is time independent of the input data size. Points near depth discontinuations are also detected to reinforce object boundaries in the clustering process. The search method presented is evaluated using both indoor and outdoor dense depth images and demonstrates significant improvements in speed and precision compared to the commonly used Fast library for approximate nearest neighbour (FLANN) [Muja and Lowe, 2009].

Sensorimotor and postural control factors associated with driving safety in a community-dwelling older driver population

Background. To establish whether sensorimotor function and balance are associated with on-road driving performance in older adults. Methods. The performance of 270 community-living adults aged 70–88 years recruited via the electoral roll was measured on a battery of peripheral sensation, strength, flexibility, reaction time, and balance tests and on a standardized measure of on-road driving performance. Results. Forty-seven participants (17.4%) were classified as unsafe based on their driving assessment. Unsafe driving was associated with reduced peripheral sensation, lower limb weakness, reduced neck range of motion, slow reaction time, and poor balance in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified poor vibration sensitivity, reduced quadriceps strength, and increased sway on a foam surface with eyes closed as significant and independent risk factors for unsafe driving. These variables classified participants into safe and unsafe drivers with a sensitivity of 74% and specificity of 70%. Conclusions. A number of sensorimotor and balance measures were associated with driver safety and the multivariate model comprising measures of sensation, strength, and balance was highly predictive of unsafe driving in this sample. These findings highlight important determinants of driver safety and may assist in developing efficacious driver safety strategies for older drivers.

The impact of risk-reducing hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy on survival in patients with a history of breast cancer – a population-based data linkage study

Prophylactic surgery including hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (BSO) is recommended in BRCA positive women, while in women from the general population, hysterectomy plus BSO may increase the risk of overall mortality. The effect of hysterectomy plus BSO on women previously diagnosed with breast cancer is unknown. We used data from a population-base data linkage study of all women diagnosed with primary breast cancer in Queensland, Australia between 1997 and 2008 (n=21,067). We fitted flexible parametric breast cancer specific and overall survival models with 95% confidence intervals (also known as Royston-Parmar models) to assess the impact of risk-reducing surgery (removal of uterus, one or both ovaries). We also stratified analyses by age 20-49 and 50-79 years, respectively. Overall, 1,426 women (7%) underwent risk-reducing surgery (13% of premenopausal women and 3% of postmenopausal women). No women who had risk-reducing surgery, compared to 171 who did not have risk-reducing surgery developed a gynaecological cancer. Overall, 3,165 (15%) women died, including 2,195 (10%) from breast cancer. Hysterectomy plus BSO was associated with significantly reduced risk of death overall (adjusted HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.53-0.89; P =0.005). Risk reduction was greater among premenopausal women, whose risk of death halved (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.25-0.79; P < 0.006). This was largely driven by reduction in breast cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.24-0.79; P < 0.006). This population-based study found that risk-reducing surgery halved the mortality risk for premenopausal breast cancer patients. Replication of our results in independent cohorts, and subsequently randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings.

A retrospective cohort study of Acticoat™ versus Silvazine™ in a paediatric population

We wished to determine whether changing our centre's practice of using Acticoat instead of Silvazine as our first-line burns dressing provided a better standard of care in terms of efficacy, cost and ease of use. A retrospective cohort study was performed examining 328 Silvazine treated patients from January 2000 to June 2001 and 241 Acticoat treated patients from July 2002 to July 2003. During those periods the respective dressings were used exclusively. There was no significant difference in age, %BSA and mechanism of burn between the groups. In the Silvazine group, 25.6% of children required grafting compared to 15.4% in the Acticoat group (p=0.001). When patients requiring grafting were excluded, the time taken for re-epithelialisation in the Acticoat group (14.9 days) was significantly less than that for the Silvazine group (18.3 days), p=0.047. There were more wounds requiring long term scar management in the Silvazine group (32.6%) compared to the Acticoat group (29.5%), however this was not significant. There was only one positive blood culture in each group, indicating that both Silvazine and Acticoat are potent antimicrobial agents. The use of Acticoat as our primary burns dressing has dramatically changed our clinical practice. Inpatients are now only 18% of the total admissions, with the vast majority of patients treated on an outpatient basis. In terms of cost, Acticoat was demonstrated to be less expensive over the treatment period than Silvazine . We have concluded that Acticoat is a safe, cost-effective, efficacious dressing that reduces the time for re-epithelialisation and the requirement for grafting and long term scar management, compared to Silvazine.

The relationship between cannabis outcome expectancies and cannabis refusal self-efficacy in a treatment population

Background and aims Self-efficacy beliefs and outcome expectancies are central to Social Cognitive Theory (SCT). Alcohol studies demonstrate the theoretical and clinical utility of applying both SCT constructs. This study examined the relationship between refusal self-efficacy and outcome expectancies in a sample of cannabis users, and tested formal mediational models. Design Patients referred for cannabis treatment completed a comprehensive clinical assessment, including recently validated cannabis expectancy and refusal self-efficacy scales. Setting A hospital alcohol and drug out-patient clinic. Participants Patients referred for a cannabis treatment [n = 1115, mean age 26.29, standard deviation (SD) 9.39]. Measurements The Cannabis Expectancy Questionnaire (CEQ) and Cannabis Refusal Self-Efficacy Questionnaire (CRSEQ) were completed, along with measures of cannabis severity [Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS)] and cannabis consumption. Findings Positive (β = −0.29, P < 0.001) and negative (β = −0.19, P < 0.001) cannabis outcome expectancies were associated significantly with refusal self-efficacy. Refusal self-efficacy, in turn, fully mediated the association between negative expectancy and weekly consumption [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.03, 0.17] and partially mediated the effect of positive expectancy on weekly consumption (95% CI = 0.06, 0.17). Conclusions Consistent with Social Cognitive Theory, refusal self-efficacy (a person's belief that he or she can abstain from cannabis use) mediates part of the association between cannabis outcome expectancies (perceived consequences of cannabis use) and cannabis use.

Serum HE4 as a prognostic marker in endometrial cancer : a population based study

Objective HE4 has emerged as a promising biomarker in gynaecological oncology. The purpose of this study was to evaluate serum HE4 as a biomarker for high-risk phenotypes in a population-based endometrial cancer cohort. Methods Peri-operative serum HE4 and CA125 were measured in 373 patients identified from the prospective Australian National Endometrial Cancer Study (ANECS). HE4 and CA125 were quantified on the ARCHITECT instrument in a clinically accredited laboratory. Receiver operator curves (ROC), Spearman rank correlation coefficient, and chi-squared and Mann–Whitney tests were used for statistical analysis. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier and Cox multivariate regression analyses. Results Median CA125 and HE4 levels were higher in stage III and IV tumours (p < 0.001) and in tumours with outer-half myometrial invasion (p < 0.001). ROC analysis demonstrated that HE4 (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.76) was a better predictor of outer-half myometrial invasion than CA125 (AUC = 0.65), particularly in patients with low-grade endometrioid tumours (AUC 0.77 vs 0.64 for CA125). Cox multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated HE4 was an independent predictor of recurrence-free survival (HR = 2.40, 95% CI 1.19–4.83, p = 0.014) after adjusting for stage and grade of disease, particularly in the endometrioid subtype (HR = 2.86, 95% CI 1.25–6.51, p = 0.012). Conclusion These findings demonstrate the utility of serum HE4 as a prognostic biomarker in endometrial cancer in a large, population-based study. In particular they highlight the utility of HE4 for pre-operative risk stratification to identify high-risk patients within low-grade endometrioid endometrial cancer patients who might benefit from lymphadenectomy.

Co-morbidity of depression and anxiety in common age-related eye diseases : a population-based study of 662 adults

This study examined the prevalence of co-morbid age-related eye disease and symptoms of depression and anxiety in late life, and the relative roles of visual function and disease in explaining symptoms of depression and anxiety. A community-based sample of 662 individuals aged over 70 years was recruited through the electoral roll. Vision was measured using a battery of tests including high and low contrast visual acuity, contrast sensitivity, motion sensitivity, stereoacuity, Useful Field of View, and visual fields. Depression and anxiety symptoms were measured using the Goldberg scales. The prevalence of self-reported eye disease [cataract, glaucoma, or age-related macular degeneration (AMD)] in the sample was 43.4%, with 7.7% reporting more than one form of ocular pathology. Of those with no eye disease, 3.7% had clinically significant depressive symptoms. This rate was 6.7% among cataract patients, 4.3% among those with glaucoma, and 10.5% for AMD. Generalized linear models adjusting for demographics, general health, treatment, and disability examined self-reported eye disease and visual function as correlates of depression and anxiety. Depressive symptoms were associated with cataract only, AMD, comorbid eye diseases and reduced low contrast visual acuity. Anxiety was significantly associated with self-reported cataract, and reduced low contrast visual acuity, motion sensitivity and contrast sensitivity. We found no evidence for elevated rates of depressive or anxiety symptoms associated with self-reported glaucoma. The results support previous findings of high rates of depression and anxiety in cataract and AMD, and in addition show that mood and anxiety are associated with objective measures of visual function independently of self-reported eye disease. The findings have implications for the assessment and treatment of mental health in the context of late-life visual impairment...

An R2R3 MYB transcription factor determines red petal colour in an Actinidia (kiwifruit) hybrid population

Background Red colour in kiwifruit results from the presence of anthocyanin pigments. Their expression, however, is complex, and varies among genotypes, species, tissues and environments. An understanding of the biosynthesis, physiology and genetics of the anthocyanins involved, and the control of their expression in different tissues, is required. A complex, the MBW complex, consisting of R2R3-MYB and bHLH transcription factors together with a WD-repeat protein, activates anthocyanin 3-O-galactosyltransferase (F3GT1) to produce anthocyanins. We examined the expression and genetic control of anthocyanins in flowers of Actinidia hybrid families segregating for red and white petal colour. Results Four inter-related backcross families between Actinidia chinensis Planch. var. chinensis and Actinidia eriantha Benth. were identified that segregated 1:1 for red or white petal colour. Flower pigments consisted of five known anthocyanins (two delphinidin-based and three cyanidin-based) and three unknowns. Intensity and hue differed in red petals from pale pink to deep magenta, and while intensity of colour increased with total concentration of anthocyanin, no association was found between any particular anthocyanin data and hue. Real time qPCR demonstrated that an R2R3 MYB, MYB110a, was expressed at significant levels in red-petalled progeny, but not in individuals with white petals. A microsatellite marker was developed that identified alleles that segregated with red petal colour, but not with ovary, stamen filament, or fruit flesh colour in these families. The marker mapped to chromosome 10 in Actinidia. The white petal phenotype was complemented by syringing Agrobacterium tumefaciens carrying Actinidia 35S::MYB110a into the petal tissue. Red pigments developed in white petals both with, and without, co-transformation with Actinidia bHLH partners. MYB110a was shown to directly activate Actinidia F3GT1 in transient assays. Conclusions The transcription factor, MYB110a, regulates anthocyanin production in petals in this hybrid population, but not in other flower tissues or mature fruit. The identification of delphinidin-based anthocyanins in these flowers provides candidates for colour enhancement in novel fruits.

Test-retest reliability of four physical activity measures used in population surveys

Accurate monitoring of prevalence and trends in population levels of physical activity (PA) is a fundamental public health need. Test-retest reliability (repeatability) was assessed in population samples for four self-report PA measures: the Active Australia survey (AA, N=356), the short International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ, N=104), the physical activity items in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS, N=127) and in the Australian National Health Survey (NHS, N=122). Percent agreement and Kappa statistics were used to assess reliability of classification of activity status as 'active', 'insufficiently active' or 'sedentary'. Intraclass correlations (ICCs) were used to assess agreement on minutes of activity reported for each item of each survey and for total minutes. Percent agreement scores for activity status were very good on all four instruments, ranging from 60% for the NHS to 79% for the IPAQ. Corresponding Kappa statistics ranged from 0.40 (NHS) to 0.52 (AA). For individual items, ICCs were highest for walking (0.45 to 0.78) and vigorous activity (0.22 to 0.64) and lowest for the moderate questions (0.16 to 0.44). All four measures provide acceptable levels of test-retest reliability for assessing both activity status and sedentariness, and moderate reliability for assessing total minutes of activity.

Physical activity and population health outcomes

SMA members Neville Owen, Adrian Bauman, Wendy Brown and Stewart Trost have recently been awarded two NHMRC grants for research which will focus on understanding and influencing physical activity to improve population health outcomes. They were awarded under the Capital Building for Population Health scheme and the Program Grants scheme. The total value of the grants is 86.5 million over five years. The new grants will allow the researchers to conduct rigorous behavioural and epidemiological research which will inform the development of innovative primary and secondary prevention initiatives and determine their effectiveness. This is important, because physical activity is significantly implicated in the prevention and management of established chronic health problems such as cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis and some forms of cancer. It also has a key role to play in addressing the growing epidemic of childhood and adult obesity, and in the maintenance of functional well-being with age. However, in recent years, physical activity levels in Australia have declined, indicating that the net sum of all our efforts to encourage physical activity participation require renewed and innovative efforts. The proposed research programs will be based on the researchers' cross-disciplinary backgrounds in exercise physiology, psychology, health promotion and epidemiology, and will be integrated across four main domains:..