An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Communication and organizational social networks : a simulation model

Recent management research has evidenced the significance of organizational social networks, and communication is believed to impact the interpersonal relationships. However, we have little knowledge on how communication affects organizational social networks. This paper studies the dynamics between organizational communication patterns and the growth of organizational social networks. We propose an organizational social network growth model, and then collect empirical data to test model validity. The simulation results agree well with the empirical data. The results of simulation experiments enrich our knowledge on communication with the findings that organizational management practices that discourage employees from communicating within and across group boundaries have disparate and significant negative effect on the social network’s density, scalar assortativity and discrete assortativity, each of which correlates with the organization’s performance. These findings also suggest concrete measures for management to construct and develop the organizational social network.

Economic growth and inequality patterns in the presence of costly technology adoption and uncertainty

We develop a stochastic endogenous growth model to explain the diversity in growth and inequality patterns and the non-convergence of incomes in transitional economies where an underdeveloped financial sector imposes an implicit, fixed cost on the diversification of idiosyncratic risk. In the model endogenous growth occurs through physical and human capital deepening, with the latter being the more dominant element. We interpret the fixed cost as a ‘learning by doing’ cost for entrepreneurs who undertake risk in the absence of well developed financial markets and institutions that help diversify such risk. As such, this cost may be interpreted as the implicit returns foregone due to the lack of diversification opportunities that would otherwise have been available, had such institutions been present. The analytical and numerical results of the model suggest three growth outcomes depending on the productivity differences between the projects and the fixed cost associated with the more productive project. We label these outcomes as poverty trap, dual economy and balanced growth. Further analysis of these three outcomes highlights the existence of a diversity within diversity. Specifically, within the ‘poverty trap’ and ‘dual economy’ scenarios growth and inequality patterns differ, depending on the initial conditions. This additional diversity allows the model to capture a richer range of outcomes that are consistent with the empirical experience of several transitional economies.

Experimental and modelling investigation of monolayer development with clustering

Standard differential equation–based models of collective cell behaviour, such as the logistic growth model, invoke a mean–field assumption which is equivalent to assuming that individuals within the population interact with each other in proportion to the average population density. Implementing such assumptions implies that the dynamics of the system are unaffected by spatial structure, such as the formation of patches or clusters within the population. Recent theoretical developments have introduced a class of models, known as moment dynamics models, which aim to account for the dynamics of individuals, pairs of individuals, triplets of individuals and so on. Such models enable us to describe the dynamics of populations with clustering, however, little progress has been made with regard to applying moment dynamics models to experimental data. Here, we report new experimental results describing the formation of a monolayer of cells using two different cell types: 3T3 fibroblast cells and MDA MB 231 breast cancer cells. Our analysis indicates that the 3T3 fibroblast cells are relatively motile and we observe that the 3T3 fibroblast monolayer forms without clustering. Alternatively, the MDA MB 231 cells are less motile and we observe that the MDA MB 231 monolayer formation is associated with significant clustering. We calibrate a moment dynamics model and a standard mean–field model to both data sets. Our results indicate that the mean–field and moment dynamics models provide similar descriptions of the 3T3 fibroblast monolayer formation whereas these two models give very different predictions for the MDA MD 231 monolayer formation. These outcomes indicate that standard mean–field models of collective cell behaviour are not always appropriate and that care ought to be exercised when implementing such a model.

An ecological approach towards building knowledge cities

Purpose A knowledge-based urban development needs to be sustainable and, therefore, requires ecological planning strategies to ensure a better quality of its services. The purpose of this paper is to present an innovative approach for monitoring the sustainability of urban services and help the policy-making authorities to revise the current planning and development practices for more effective solutions. The paper introduces a new assessment tool–Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX) – that provides a quantitative measure of urban sustainability in a local context. Design/methodology/approach A multi-method research approach was employed in the construction of the MUSIX. A qualitative research was conducted through an interpretive and critical literature review in developing a theoretical framework and indicator selection. A quantitative research was conducted through statistical and spatial analyses in data collection, processing and model application. Findings/results MUSIX was tested in a pilot study site and provided information referring to the main environmental impacts arising from rapid urban development and population growth. Related to that, some key ecological planning strategies were recommended to guide the preparation and assessment of development and local area plans. Research limitations/implications This study provided fundamental information that assists developers, planners and policy-makers to investigate the multidimensional nature of sustainability at the local level by capturing the environmental pressures and their driving forces in highly developed urban areas. Originality/value This study measures the sustainability of urban development plans through providing data analysis and interpretation of results in a new spatial data unit.

Preferential invasion by Plasmodium merozoites and the self-regulation of parasite burden

The preferential invasion of particular red blood cell (RBC) age classes may offer a mechanism by which certain species of Plasmodia regulate their population growth. Asexual reproduction of the parasite within RBCs exponentially increases the number of circulating parasites; limiting this explosion in parasite density may be key to providing sufficient time for the parasite to reproduce, and for the host to develop a specific immune response. It is critical that the role of preferential invasion in infection is properly understood to model the within-host dynamics of different Plasmodia species. We develop a simulation model to show that limiting the range of RBC age classes available for invasion is a credible mechanism for restricting parasite density, one which is equally as important as the maximum parasite replication rate and the duration of the erythrocytic cycle. Different species of Plasmodia that regularly infect humans exhibit different preferences for RBC invasion, with all species except P. falciparum appearing to exhibit a combination of characteristics which are able to selfregulate parasite density.

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

Energy Transformed : Building Capacity in the Engineering Profession in Australia

Global pressures of burgeoning population growth and consumption are threatening efforts to reduce negative environmental pressures associated with development such as atmospheric, land and water pollution. For example, the world’s population is now growing at over 70 million per year or 1 billion per decade (Brown, 2007), increasing from 3.5 billion in 1970, to 5 billion in 1990, to 7 billion by 2010 (United Nations, 2002). In 1990 only 13 percent of the global population lived in cities, while in 2007 more than half did. More than 60 percent of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of the coastline (World Resources Institute, 2005) and nearly all of the population growth hereon is forecast to happen in developing countries (Postel, 1999). Future levels of stress on the global environment are therefore likely to increase if current trends are used for forecasting, which is particularly challenging as scientists are already observing significant signs of degradation and failure in environmental systems. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) provided an nequivocal link between climate change and current human activities, in particular: the burning of fossil fuels; deforestation and land clearing; the use of synthetic greenhouse gases; and decomposition of wastes from landfill. The UK Stern Review concluded that within our lifetime there is between a 77 to 99 percent chance (depending on the climate model used) of the global average temperature rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (Stern, 2006), with a likely greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere of 550 parts per million (ppm) or more by around 2100.

Conceptual framework for understanding the demand for emergency health services

Background & Objectives Emergency health services (EHS) throughout the world are increasingly congested. As more people use EHS, factors such as population growth and aging cannot fully explain this increase. Also, focus on patients’ clinical characteristics ignores the role that attitudinal and perceptual factors and motivations play in directing their decisions and actions. The aim of this study is to review and synthesize an integrated conceptual framework for understanding social psychological factors underpinning demand for EHS. Methodology A comprehensive search and review of empirical and theoretical studies about the utilization of EHS was conducted using major medical, health, social and behavioral sciences databases. Results A small number of studies used a relevant conceptual framework (e.g. Health Services Utilization Model or Health Belief Model) or their components to analyze patients’ decision to use EHS. The studies evidenced that demand was affected by perceived severity of the condition; perceived costs and benefits (e.g. availability, accessibility and affordability of alternative services); experience, preference and knowledge; perceived and actual social support; and demographic characteristics (e.g. age, sex, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, marital and living circumstances, place of residence). Conclusions Conceptual models that are commonly used in areas like social and behavioral sciences have rarely been applied in the EHS utilization field. Understanding patients’ decision-making and associated factors will lay the groundwork for identification of the evidence to inform improved policy responses and the development of demand management strategies. An integrated conceptual framework will be introduced as part of this study.

Fertility choice, land, and the Malthusian hypothesis

In a standard overlapping generations growth model, with a fixed amount of land and endogenous fertility, the competitive economy converges to a steady state with a zero population growth rate and positive consumption per capita. The Malthusian hypothesis is interpreted as a positive statement about the relationship between population growth and consumption per-capita, when production exhibits diminishing returns to labor and there is a fixed amount of land essential for production. Even when individuals care only about the number of their children and not about their children's welfare, the equilibrium is such that they eventually would choose to have only one child for each adult. Hence, if Malthus's "positive check' on population is the result of the response of optimizing agents to competitively determined prices, Malthus's pessimistic conjecture is not necessarily true, even though his other assumptions hold. -from Authors

Low- and high-temperature controls in carbon nanofiber growth in reactive plasmas

A numerical growth model is used to describe the catalyzed growth of carbon nanofibers in the sheath of a low-temperature plasma. Using the model, the effects of variation in the plasma sheath parameters and substrate potential on the carbon nanofiber growth characteristics, such as the growth rate, the effective carbon flux to the catalyst surface, and surface coverages, have been investigated. It is shown that variations in the parameters, which change the sheath width, mainly affect the growth parameters at the low catalyst temperatures, whereas the other parameters such as the gas pressure, ion temperature, and percentages of the hydrocarbon and etching gases, strongly affect the carbon nanofiber growth at higher temperatures. The conditions under which the carbon nanofiber growth can still proceed under low nanodevice-friendly process temperatures have been formulated and summarized. These results are consistent with the available experimental results and can also be used for catalyzed growth of other high-aspect-ratio nanostructures in low-temperature plasmas.

Plasma heating effects in catalyzed growth of carbon nanofibres

A theoretical model describing the plasma-assisted growth of carbon nanofibres (CNFs) that accounts for the nanostructure heating by ion and etching gas fluxes from the plasma is developed. Using the model, it is shown that fluxes from the plasma environment can substantially increase the temperature of the catalyst nanoparticle located on the top of the CNF with respect to the substrate temperature. The difference between the catalyst and the substrate temperatures depends on the substrate width, the length of the CNF, the neutral gas density and temperature as well as the densities of the ions and atoms of the etching gas. In addition to the heating of the nanostructure, the ions and etching gas atoms from the ionized gas environment also strongly affect the CNF growth rates. Due to ion bombardment, the CNF growth rates in plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition may be much higher than the rates in similar neutral gas-based thermal processes. The CNF growth model, which accounts for the nanostructure heating by the plasma-generated species, provides the growth rates that are in better agreement with the available experimental data on CNF growth than the models in which the heating effects are ignored.

Mainstreaming biophilic urbanism in Australian cities : a response to climate change, resource shortages and population pressures

This thesis explored how biophilic urbanism, or the integration of natural features into increasingly dense urban environments, has become mainstream in cities around the world. Fourteen factors uncovered through a case study investigation provide insight for decision makers and change agents in Australia to use biophilic urbanism to address impacts of population growth, climate change and resource shortages. The thesis uses an inductive research approach to explore how barriers to the integration of multi-functional vegetated and water design elements into the built environment, such that these become and standard inclusions in urban design and development processes.

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980–2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million–216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2–8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million–12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4–0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million–207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6–27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7–49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2–18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9–13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7–11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0–9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4–10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2–5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2–4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9–1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10–29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. Interpretation Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs—with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm—our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority.

Managing and learning with multiple models: Objectives and optimization algorithms

The quality of environmental decisions should be gauged according to managers' objectives. Management objectives generally seek to maximize quantifiable measures of system benefit, for instance population growth rate. Reaching these goals often requires a certain degree of learning about the system. Learning can occur by using management action in combination with a monitoring system. Furthermore, actions can be chosen strategically to obtain specific kinds of information. Formal decision making tools can choose actions to favor such learning in two ways: implicitly via the optimization algorithm that is used when there is a management objective (for instance, when using adaptive management), or explicitly by quantifying knowledge and using it as the fundamental project objective, an approach new to conservation.This paper outlines three conservation project objectives - a pure management objective, a pure learning objective, and an objective that is a weighted mixture of these two. We use eight optimization algorithms to choose actions that meet project objectives and illustrate them in a simulated conservation project. The algorithms provide a taxonomy of decision making tools in conservation management when there is uncertainty surrounding competing models of system function. The algorithms build upon each other such that their differences are highlighted and practitioners may see where their decision making tools can be improved. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.