Sustained genetic control of wheat rust diseases in north-eastern Australia

Control of wheat rusts in north-eastern Australia has been based on resistance breeding since the early 1920s. It has been an enduring journey of discovery, disappointment, and achievement, which has culminated in a pool of knowledge and expertise upon which today's plant breeders can efficiently target durable resistance to the major rust diseases. This paper outlines significant advances in genetic control of rusts in the region, with particular emphasis on the invaluable role played by the University of Sydney rust control program and its influence on wheat breeding in the region and throughout Australia. This paper is part of ‘Global Landscapes in Cereal Rust Control’, see Aust. J. Agric. Res. Vol. 58, no. 6.

Biology and host range of Ophiomyia camarae Spencer (Diptera: Agromyzidae), a potential biocontrol agent for Lantana spp. (Verbenaceae) in Australia

The life history and host range of the herringbone leaf-mining fly Ophiomyia camarae, a potential biological control agent for Lantana spp., were investigated. Eggs were deposited singly on the underside of leaves. Although several eggs can be laid on a single leaf and a maximum of three individual mines were seen on a single leaf, only one pupa per leaf ever developed. The generation time (egg to adult) was about 38 days. Females (mean 14 days) lived longer than males (mean 9 days) and produced about 61 mines. Oviposition and larval development occurred on all five lantana phenotypes tested. Eleven plant species representing six families were tested to determine the host range. Oviposition and larval development occurred on only lantana and another nonnative plant Lippia alba (Verbenaceae), with both species supporting populations over several generations. A CLIMEX model showed that most of the coastal areas of eastern Australia south to 30°16' S (Coffs Harbour) would be suitable for O. camarae. O. camarae was approved for release in Australia in October 2007 and mines have been observed on plants at numerous field sites along the coast following releases.

Simulating the evolution of glyphosate resistance in grains farming in northern Australia.

Background and Aims: The evolution of resistance to herbicides is a substantial problem in contemporary agriculture. Solutions to this problem generally consist of the use of practices to control the resistant population once it evolves, and/or to institute preventative measures before populations become resistant. Herbicide resistance evolves in populations over years or decades, so predicting the effectiveness of preventative strategies in particular relies on computational modelling approaches. While models of herbicide resistance already exist, none deals with the complex regional variability in the northern Australian sub-tropical grains farming region. For this reason, a new computer model was developed. Methods: The model consists of an age- and stage-structured population model of weeds, with an existing crop model used to simulate plant growth and competition, and extensions to the crop model added to simulate seed bank ecology and population genetics factors. Using awnless barnyard grass (Echinochloa colona) as a test case, the model was used to investigate the likely rate of evolution under conditions expected to produce high selection pressure. Key Results: Simulating continuous summer fallows with glyphosate used as the only means of weed control resulted in predicted resistant weed populations after approx. 15 years. Validation of the model against the paddock history for the first real-world glyphosate-resistant awnless barnyard grass population shows that the model predicted resistance evolution to within a few years of the real situation. Conclusions: This validation work shows that empirical validation of herbicide resistance models is problematic. However, the model simulates the complexities of sub-tropical grains farming in Australia well, and can be used to investigate, generate and improve glyphosate resistance prevention strategies.

Demography of feral camels in central Australia and its relevance to population control

Since their release over 100 years ago, camels have spread across central Australia and increased in number. Increasingly, they are being seen as a pest, with observed impacts from overgrazing and damage to infrastructure such as fences. Irregular aerial surveys since 1983 and an interview-based survey in 1966 suggest that camels have been increasing at close to their maximum rate. A comparison of three models of population growth fitted to these, albeit limited, data suggests that the Northern Territory population has indeed been growing at an annual exponential rate of r = 0.074, or 8% per year, with little evidence of a density-dependent brake. A stage-structured model using life history data from a central Australian camel population suggests that this rate approximates the theoretical maximum. Elasticity analysis indicates that adult survival is by far the biggest influence on rate of increase and that a 9% reduction in survival from 96% is needed to stop the population growing. In contrast, at least 70% of mature females need to be sterilised to have a similar effect. In a benign environment, a population of large mammals such as camels is expected to grow exponentially until close to carrying capacity. This will frustrate control programs, because an ever-increasing number of animals will need to be removed for zero growth the longer that culling or harvesting effort is delayed. A population projection for 2008 suggests ~10 500 animals need to be harvested across the Northern Territory. Current harvests are well short of this. The ability of commercial harvesting to control camel populations in central Australia will depend on the value of animals, access to animals and the presence of alternative species to harvest when camels are at low density.

Understanding invasion history: genetic structure and diversity of two globally invasive plants and implications for their management

Aim: Resolving the origin of invasive plant species is important for understanding the introduction histories of successful invaders and aiding strategies aimed at their management. This study aimed to infer the number and origin(s) of introduction for the globally invasive species, Macfadyena unguis-cati and Jatropha gossypiifolia using molecular data. Location: Native range: Neotropics; Invaded range: North America, Africa, Europe, Asia, Pacific Islands and Australia. Methods: We used chloroplast microsatellites (cpSSRs) to elucidate the origin(s) of introduced populations and calculated the genetic diversity in native and introduced regions. Results: Strong genetic structure was found within the native range of M. unguis-cati, but no genetic structuring was evident in the native range of J. gossypiifolia. Overall, 27 haplotypes were found in the native range of M. unguis-cati. Only four haplotypes were found in the introduced range, with more than 96% of introduced specimens matching a haplotype from Paraguay. In contrast, 15 haplotypes were found in the introduced range of J. gossypiifolia, with all invasive populations, except New Caledonia, comprising multiple haplotypes. Main conclusions: These data show that two invasive plant species from the same native range have had vastly different introduction histories in their non-native ranges. Invasive populations of M. unguis-cati probably came from a single or few independent introductions, whereas most invasive J. gossypiifolia populations arose from multiple introductions or alternatively from a representative sample of genetic diversity from a panmictic native range. As introduced M. unguis-cati populations are dominated by a single haplotype, locally adapted natural enemies should make the best control agents. However, invasive populations of J. gossypiifolia are genetically diverse and the selection of bio-control agents will be considerably more complex.

Spatial subdivision among assemblages of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson (Pisces: Scombridae) across northern Australia: implications for fisheries management

Aim: This study investigated the use of stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of narrow-barred Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, as indicators of population structure across Australia. Location: Samples were collected from 25 locations extending from the lower west coast of Western Australia (30°), across northern Australian waters, and to the east coast of Australia (18°) covering a coastline length of approximately 9500 km, including samples from Indonesia. Methods: The stable δ13C and δ18O isotopes in the sagittal otolith carbonate of S. commerson were analysed using standard mass spectrometric techniques. The isotope ratios across northern Australian subregions were subjected to an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis to define subregions. Isotope ratios within each of the subregions were compared to assess population structure across Australia. Results: Cluster analysis separated samples into four subregions: central Western Australia, north Western Australia, northern Australia and the Gulf of Carpentaria and eastern Australia. Isotope signatures for fish from a number of sampling sites from across Australia and Indonesia were significantly different, indicating population separation. No significant differences were found in otolith isotope ratios between sampling times (no temporal variation). Main conclusions: Significant differences in the isotopic signatures of S. commerson demonstrate that there is unlikely to be any substantial movement of fish among these spatially discrete adult assemblages. The lack of temporal variation among otolith isotope ratios indicates that S. commerson populations do not undergo longshore spatial shifts in distribution during their life history. The temporal persistence of spatially explicit stable isotopic signatures indicates that, at these spatial scales, the population units sampled comprise functionally distinct management units or separate ‘stocks’ for many of the purposes of fisheries management. The spatial subdivision evident among populations of S. commerson across northern and western Australia indicates that it may be advantageous to consider S. commerson population dynamics and fisheries management from a metapopulation perspective (at least at the regional level).

Determination of management units for grey mackerel fisheries in northern Australia.

The requirement for Queensland, Northern Territory and Western Australian jurisdictions to ensure sustainable harvest of fish resources and their optimal use relies on robust information on the resource status. For grey mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus) fisheries, each of these jurisdictions has their own management regime in their corresponding waters. The lack of information on stock structure of grey mackerel, however, means that the appropriate spatial scale of management is not known. As well, fishers require assurance of future sustainability to encourage investment and long-term involvement in a fishery that supplies lucrative overseas markets. These management and fisher-unfriendly circumstances must be viewed in the context of recent 3-fold increases in catches of grey mackerel along the Queensland east coast, combined with significant and increasing catches in other parts of the species' northern Australian range. Establishing the stock structure of grey mackerel would also immensely improve the relevance of resource assessments for fishery management of grey mackerel across northern Australia. This highlighted the urgent need for stock structure information for this species. The impetus for this project came from the strategic recommendations of the FRDC review by Ward and Rogers (2003), "Northern mackerel (Scombridae: Scomberomorus): current and future research needs" (Project No. 2002/096), which promoted the urgency for information on the stock structure of grey mackerel. In following these recommendations this project adopted a multi-technique and phased sampling approach as carried out by Buckworth et al (2007), who examined the stock structure of Spanish mackerel, Scomberomorus commerson, across northern Australia. The project objectives were to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel across their northern Australian range, and use this information to define management units and their appropriate spatial scales. We used multiple techniques concurrently to determine the stock structure of grey mackerel. These techniques were: genetic analyses (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite DNA), otolith (ear bones) isotope ratios, parasite abundances, and growth parameters. The advantage of using this type of multi-technique approach was that each of the different methods is informative about the fish’s life history at different spatial and temporal scales. Genetics can inform about the evolutionary patterns as well as rates of mixing of fish from adjacent areas, while parasites and otolith microchemistry are directly influenced by the environment and so will inform about the patterns of movement during the fishes lifetime. Growth patterns are influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. Due to these differences the use of these techniques concurrently increases the likelihood of detecting different stocks where they exist. We adopted a phased sampling approach whereby sampling was carried out at broad spatial scales in the first year: east coast, eastern Gulf of Carpentaria (GoC), western GoC, and the NW Northern Territory (NW NT). By comparing the fish samples from each of these locations, and using each of the techniques, we tested the null hypothesis that grey mackerel were comprised of a single homogeneous population across northern Australia. Having rejected the null hypothesis we re-sampled the 1st year locations to test for temporal stability in stock structure, and to assess stock structure at finer spatial scales. This included increased spatial coverage on the east coast, the GoC, and WA. From genetic approaches we determined that there at least four genetic stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia: WA, NW NT (Timor/Arafura), the GoC and the east Grey mackerel management units in northern Australia ix coast. All markers revealed concordant patterns showing WA and NW NT to be clearly divergent stocks. The mtDNA D-loop fragment appeared to have more power to resolve stock boundaries because it was able to show that the GoC and east coast QLD stocks were genetically differentiated. Patterns of stock structure on a finer scale, or where stock boundaries are located, were less clear. From otolith stable isotope analyses four major groups of S. semifasciatus were identified: WA, NT/GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Differences in the isotopic composition of whole otoliths indicate that these groups must have spent their life history in different locations. The magnitude of the difference between the groups suggests a prolonged separation period at least equal to the fish’s life span. The parasite abundance analyses, although did not include samples from WA, suggest the existence of at least four stocks of grey mackerel in northern Australia: NW NT, the GoC, northern east coast and central east coast. Grey mackerel parasite fauna on the east coast suggests a separation somewhere between Townsville and Mackay. The NW NT region also appears to comprise a separate stock while within the GoC there exists a high degree of variability in parasite faunas among the regions sampled. This may be due to 1. natural variation within the GoC and there is one grey mackerel stock, or 2. the existence of multiple localised adult sub-stocks (metapopulations) within the GoC. Growth parameter comparisons were only possible from four major locations and identified the NW NT, the GoC, and the east coast as having different population growth characteristics. Through the use of multiple techniques, and by integrating the results from each, we were able to determine that there exist at least five stocks of grey mackerel across northern Australia, with some likelihood of additional stock structuring within the GoC. The major management units determined from this study therefore were Western Australia, NW Northern Territory (Timor/Arafura), the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern east Queensland coast and central east Queensland coast. The management implications of these results indicate the possible need for management of grey mackerel fisheries in Australia to be carried out on regional scales finer than are currently in place. In some regions the spatial scales of management might continue as is currently (e.g. WA), while in other regions, such as the GoC and the east coast, managers should at least monitor fisheries on a more local scale dictated by fishing effort and assess accordingly. Stock assessments should also consider the stock divisions identified, particularly on the east coast and for the GoC, and use life history parameters particular to each stock. We also emphasise that where we have not identified different stocks does not preclude the possibility of the occurrence of further stock division. Further, this study did not, nor did it set out to, assess the status of each of the stocks identified. This we identify as a high priority action for research and development of grey mackerel fisheries, as well as a management strategy evaluation that incorporates the conclusions of this work. Until such time that these priorities are addressed, management of grey mackerel fisheries should be cognisant of these uncertainties, particularly for the GoC and the Queensland east coast.

Background to the approved beneficial Cynodon spp. vegetative cultivars within Australia

The growth of the Australian turfgrass industry has significantly expanded over recent decades. One reason for this occurring has been with development of better suited or higher quality turfgrass cultivars for Australia’s harsh climatic conditions. In recent years drought has widely affected the turfgrass industry and as such, greater drought tolerant C4 grasses such as Cynodon spp. have been used. In 2008, as part of the 24th Australian Turfgrass Conference Proceedings, Peter McMaugh wrote an extensive article on the couch grass breeding history in Australia. This paper contains an extension to his work detailing the current (1950s to 2010) Cynodon species found in Australia. Detailed information has been sourced in relation to the origin and development of the grasses which are suitable for turfgrass use. Such detail provides an interesting picture of the source of proliferation of newer cultivars and how the Australian industry has evolved with the introduction of overseas and Australian selected cultivars. The information adds to the preceding work, including morphological and agronomic attributes and how closely each selection or cultivar is related. The cultivars discussed in this article (listed alphabetically) are derived from one of the four classifications identified by the breeder/author, being (i) Cynodon sp. (although the cultivar contained within the taxa fits best being classified as a Cynodon hybrid), (ii) Cynodon dactylon x C. transvaalensis (Cynodon hybrid), (iii) Cynodon dactylon (green couch) and (iv) Cynodon dactylon x C. magenissii.

Stock structure of exploited shark species in north-eastern Australia

The project has provided management and other stakeholders with information necessary to make informed decisions about the management of four of the key exploited shark species caught in the Queensland inshore net fishery and northern New South Wales line fishery. The project has determined that spatial management of milk sharks within Queensland, and scalloped hammerhead, common black tip and Australian black tip sharks within Queensland and New South Wales is appropriate. The project has determined that both black tip shark species are likely to require co-operative management arrangements between Queensland and New South Wales. For scalloped hammerheads separate stocks between the two jurisdictions were identified from the fisheriesdependent samples, however genetic exchange across borders is likely to be facilitated by movement of adult females and perhaps larger males to a lesser extent. This information will greatly assist compliance with the Commonwealth Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999) for shark fisheries in north-eastern Australia by providing the necessary basis for robust assessment of the status of stocks of the study species, thereby helping to deliver their sustainable harvest. It also helps to achieve objectives of the Australian National Shark Plan. The project provides the appropriate spatial framework for future monitoring and assessment of the study species. This is at a time when shark fisheries are receiving close attention from all sectors and when monitoring programs are being implemented, aimed at better assessment of stock status. This project has provided the crucial information for developing an appropriate monitoring design as well as the necessary basis for making statements about stock status. The project has addressed research priorities identified by the Queensland Fisheries Research Advisory Board, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Queensland Fisheries. Previously management has assumed a single stock for each species on the east coast of Queensland, and management of shark fisheries in New South Wales (NSW) and Queensland has been independent of one another. The project has been able to enhance and develop links between research, management and industry. Strong positive relationships with commercial fishers were crucial in the collection of samples throughout the study area and fisheries managers were part of the project team throughout the study period. During the project the study area was extended to include both Queensland and NSW waters, creating mutualistic and positive links between the States’ research and management agencies. Extension of project results included management representatives from NSW and Queensland, as well as the Northern Territory where similar shark fisheries operate and similar species are targeted. The project was able to provide significant human capital development opportunities providing considerable value to the project outcomes. Use of vertebral microchemistry and life history characteristics as stock determination methods provided material for two PhD students based at James Cook University: Ron Schroeder, vertebral chemistry; and Alastair Harry, life history characteristic. The project has developed novel research methods that have great capacity for future application, including: • Development of a simple and rapid genetic diagnostic tool (RT-HRM-PCR assay) for differentiating among the black tip shark species, for which no simple morphological identifier exists; and • Development of laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) methods for analysing and interpreting microchemical composition of shark vertebrae. The study has provided further confirmation of the effectiveness of using a holistic approach in stock structure studies and justifies investment into such studies.

Polypharmacy among inpatients aged 70 years or older in Australia

Objectives To investigate medication changes for older patients admitted to hospital and to explore associations between patient characteristics and polypharmacy. Design Prospective cohort study. Participants and setting Patients aged 70 years or older admitted to general medical units of 11 acute care hospitals in two Australian states between July 2005 and May 2010. All patients were assessed using the interRAI assessment system for acute care. Main outcome measures Measures of physical, cognitive and psychosocial functioning; and number of regular prescribed medications categorised into three groups: non-polypharmacy (0–4 drugs), polypharmacy (5–9 drugs) and hyperpolypharmacy (≥ 10 drugs). Results Of 1220 patients who were recruited for the study, medication records at admission were available for 1216. Mean age was 81.3 years (SD, 6.8 years), and 659 patients (54.2%) were women. For the 1187 patients with complete medication records on admission and discharge, there was a small but statistically significant increase in mean number of regular medications per day between admission and discharge (7.1 v 7.6), while the prevalence of medications such as statins (459 [38.7%] v 457 [38.5%] patients), opioid analgesics (155 [13.1%] v 166 [14.0%] patients), antipsychotics (59 [5.0%] v 65 [5.5%] patients) and benzodiazepines (122 [10.3%] v 135 [11.4%] patients) did not change significantly. Being in a higher polypharmacy category was significantly associated with increase in comorbidities (odds ratio [OR], 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20–1.34), presence of pain (OR, 1.31; 1.05–1.64), dyspnoea (OR, 1.64; 1.30–2.07) and dependence in terms of instrumental activities of daily living (OR, 1.70; 1.20–2.41). Hyperpolypharmacy was observed in 290/1216 patients (23.8%) at admission and 336/1187 patients (28.3%) on discharge, and the proportion of preventive medication in the hyperpolypharmacy category at both points in time remained high (1209/3371 [35.9%] at admission v 1508/4117 [36.6%] at discharge). Conclusions Polypharmacy is common among older people admitted to general medical units of Australian hospitals, with no clinically meaningful change to the number or classification (symptom control, prevention or both) of drugs made by treating physicians.

Biology, Management and Genetic Stock Structure of Mangrove Jack, (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) in Australia.

This project has contributed to the ecologically sustainable management of mangrove jack in Australia by providing comprehensive information on its biology, habitat requirements, population parameters and stock structure. Specifically, the project has resulted in an enhanced understanding of the life history of Australian mangrove jack, the levels of exploitation in its local fishery and the likely existence of a single genetic stock throughout Queensland.

Reproductive strategies of two invasive tilapia species Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae in northern Australia

The reproductive biology of two invasive tilapia species, Oreochromis mossambicus and Tilapia mariae, resident in freshwater habitats in north-eastern Australia was investigated. Oreochromis mossambicus exhibited plasticity in some of its life-history characteristics that enhanced its ability to occupy a range of habitats. These included a shallow, weed-choked, freshwater coastal drain that was subject to temperature and dissolved oxygen extremes and water-level fluctuations to cooler, relatively high-altitude impoundments. Adaptations to harsher conditions included a decreased total length (LT) and age ( A) at 50% maturity (m50), short somatic growth intervals, early maturation and higher relative fecundities. Potential fecundity in both species was relatively low, but parental care ensured high survival rates of both eggs and larvae. No significant difference in the relative fecundity of T. mariae populations in a large impoundment and a coastal river was found, but there were significant differences in relative fecundities between several of the O. mossambicus populations sampled. Total length ( LT) and age at 50% maturity of O. mossambicus populations varied considerably depending on habitat. The LTm50 and Am50 values for male and female O. mossambicus in a large impoundment were considerably greater than for those resident in a small coastal drain. Monthly gonad developmental stages and gonado-somatic indices suggested that in coastal areas, spawning of O. mossambicus and T. mariae occurred throughout most of the year while in cooler, high-altitude impoundments, spawning peaked in the warmer, summer months. The contribution these reproductive characteristics make to the success of both species as colonizers is discussed in the context of future control and management options for tilapia incursions in Australia.

Spatial variation in life history reveals insight into connectivity and geographic population structure of a tropical estuarine teleost: king threadfin, Polydactylus macrochir

Understanding the life history of exploited fish species is not only critical in developing stock assessments and productivity models, but has a dual function in the delineation of connectivity and geographical population structure. In this study, patterns in growth and length and age at sex change of Polydactylus macrochir, an ecologically and economically important protandrous estuarine teleost, were examined to provide preliminary information on the species' connectivity and geographic structure across northern Australia. Considerable variation in life history parameters was observed among the 18 locations sampled. Both unconstrained and constrained (t(0) = 0) estimates of von Bertalanffy growth function parameters differed significantly among all neighbouring locations with the exception of two locations in Queensland's east coast and two in Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria waters, respectively. Comparisons of back-calculated length-at-age 2 provided additional evidence for growth differences among some locations, but were not significantly different among locations in the south-eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or on Queensland's east coast. The length and age at sex change differed markedly among locations, with fish from the east coast of Australia changing sex from males to females at significantly greater lengths and ages than elsewhere. Sex change occurred earliest at locations within Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria, where a large proportion of small, young females were recorded. The observed differences suggest that P. macrochir likely form a number of geographically and/or reproductively distinct groups in Australian waters and suggest that future studies examining connectivity and geographic population structure of estuarine fishes will likely benefit from the inclusion of comparisons of life history parameters. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diversity and abundance of fungivorous thrips (Thysanoptera) associated with leaf-litter and bark across forest types and two tree genera in subtropical Australia

Leaf-litter thrips were much more common and diverse in dry sclerophyll forest than in wetter forest types in subtropical southeast Queensland, Australia. In dry sclerophyll forest, the species composition of thrips in leaf-litter was strongly differentiated from the thrips fauna associated with bark of the trees Eucalyptus major and Acacia melanoxylon (4 of 34 species in common). The species composition of bark-dwelling thrips was similar across the two tree species and also across two eucalypts with different bark types, Eucalyptus major (flaky) and Eucalyptus siderophloia (rough). The diversity of thrips from the leaf-litter was not differentiated across all of these tree species. Virtually all thrips collected were Phlaeothripidae, subfamilies Idolothripinae and Phlaeothripinae. Idolothripinae were associated almost exclusively with leaf-litter, but Phlaeothripinae were in leaf-litter and bark. The association of fungal-feeding thrips with dry sclerophyll forest raises questions about their ecological requirements and the role they play in nutrient cycling. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia

Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.