A reference business process for ecological niche modelling

Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Debris flow affecting the Cubatauo Oil Refinery, Brazil

On February 6, 1994, a large debris flow developed because of intense rains in a 800-m-high mountain range called Serra do Cubatao, the local name for the Serra do Mar, located along the coast of the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. It affected the Presidente Bernardes Refinery, owned by Petrobras, in Cubatao. The damages amounted to about US $40 million because of the muck cleaning, repairs, and 3-week interruption of the operations. This prompted Petrobras to conduct studies, carried out by the authors, to develop protection works, which were done at a cost of approximately US $12 million. The paper describes the studies conducted on debris flow mechanics. A new criteria to define rainfall intensities that trigger debris flows is presented, as well as a correlation of slipped area with soil porosity and rain intensity. Also presented are (a) an actual grain size distribution of a deposited material, determined by laboratory and a large-scale field test, and (b) the size distribution of large boulders along the river bed. Based on theory, empirical experience and back-analysis of the events, the main parameters as the front velocity, the peak discharge and the volume of the transported sediments were determined in a rational basis for the design of the protection works. Finally, the paper describes the set of the protection works built, emphasizing their concept and function. They also included some low-cost innovative works.

The natural force density method for the shape finding of taut structures

This work presents, with the aid of the natural approach, an extension of the force density method for the initial shape finding of cable and membrane structures, which leads to the solution of a system of linear equations. This method, here called the natural force density method, preserves the linearity which characterizes the original force density method. At the same time, it overcomes the difficulties that the original procedure presents to cope with irregular triangular finite element meshes. Furthermore, if this method is applied iteratively in the lines prescribed herewith, it leads to a viable initial configuration with a uniform, isotropic plane Cauchy stress state. This means that a minimal surface for the membrane can be achieved through a succession of equilibrated configurations. Several numerical examples illustrate the simplicity and robustness of the method. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL CALLED ACQUANETXL IN THE ALLOCATION OF WATER IN COMPLEX WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS

This article presents a tool for the allocation analysis of complex systems of water resources, called AcquaNetXL, developed in the form of spreadsheet in which a model of linear optimization and another nonlinear were incorporated. The AcquaNetXL keeps the concepts and attributes of a decision support system. In other words, it straightens out the communication between the user and the computer, facilitates the understanding and the formulation of the problem, the interpretation of the results and it also gives a support in the process of decision making, turning it into a clear and organized process. The performance of the algorithms used for solving the problems of water allocation was satisfactory especially for the linear model.

Biodegradable nanosize particles of poly(L,L-lactide)-b-poly(ethylene glycol)-b-poly(L,L-lactide)

Two series of poly(L,L-lactide-b-ethylene glycol-b-L,L-lactide) copolymers, PLA-PEO-PLA, were synthesized by polymerization Of L,L-lactide using a dihydroxy-terminated poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) (M-n = 4000 or 600 g/mol) as coinitiator and stannous 2-ethylhexanoate, Sn(Oct)(2), as initiator. The synthesized copolymers have shown high stereoregularity as observed by C-13 NMR analyses. The nanoparticles were prepared by using a solvent diffusion method and the self-assemblage process and were characterized by NMR and SEM. It was possible to conclude that the self-assembled particles presented a core-shell structure characterized by a hydrophobic PLA core and a hydrophilic PEG shell, thus the NMR of the aqueous solutions indicated a quasi-solid behavior for the particles` interior. The diameters of the spherical particles as observed by SEM were in the 50-250 nm range, depending on the copolymer composition and the preparation procedure.

Effects of weld strength mismatch on J and CTOD estimation procedure for SE(B) specimens

This work examines the effect of weld strength mismatch on fracture toughness measurements defined by J and CTOD fracture parameters using single edge notch bend (SE(B)) specimens. A central objective of the present study is to enlarge on previous developments of J and CTOD estimation procedures for welded bend specimens based upon plastic eta factors (eta) and plastic rotational factors (r (p) ). Very detailed non-linear finite element analyses for plane-strain models of standard SE(B) fracture specimens with a notch located at the center of square groove welds and in the heat affected zone provide the evolution of load with increased crack mouth opening displacement required for the estimation procedure. One key result emerging from the analyses is that levels of weld strength mismatch within the range +/- 20% mismatch do not affect significantly J and CTOD estimation expressions applicable to homogeneous materials, particularly for deeply cracked fracture specimens with relatively large weld grooves. The present study provides additional understanding on the effect of weld strength mismatch on J and CTOD toughness measurements while, at the same time, adding a fairly extensive body of results to determine parameters J and CTOD for different materials using bend specimens with varying geometries and mismatch levels.

Effect of Ti and C additions on structural and magnetic properties of (Pr,Nd)-Fe-B nanocrystalline magnetic materials

Effects of titanium carbide (TiC) addition on structural and magnetic properties of isotropic (Pr,Nd)-Fe-B nanocrystalline magnetic materials have been investigated. In this work, we investigate the effect of TiC addition on a (Pr,Nd)-poor and B-rich composition, as well as on a B-poor and (Nd, Pr)-rich composition. Rapidly solidified (Pr, Nd)-Fe-B alloys were prepared by melt-spinning. The compositions studied were (Pr(1-x)Nd(x))(4)Fe(78)B(18) (x = 0, 0.5, and 1) with addition of 3 at% TiC. Unlike the (Pr(x)Nd(1-x))(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6) materials that present excellent values for coercive. field and energy product, the (Pr,Nd)-poor and B-rich composition alloys with TiC addition present lower values. Rietveld analysis of X-ray data and Mossbauer spectroscopy revealed that samples are predominantly composed of Fe(3)B and alpha-Fe. For the RE-rich compositions (Pr(x)Nd(1-x))(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6) (x = 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1) with the addition of 3 at% TiC, the highest coercive field and energy product (8.4 kOe and 14.4 MGOe, respectively) were obtained for the composition Pr(9.5)Fe(84.5)B(6). (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the basic reproduction number and the topological properties of the contact network: An epidemiological study in mainly locally connected cellular automata

We study the spreading of contagious diseases in a population of constant size using susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) models described in terms of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and probabilistic cellular automata (PCA). In the PCA model, each individual (represented by a cell in the lattice) is mainly locally connected to others. We investigate how the topological properties of the random network representing contacts among individuals influence the transient behavior and the permanent regime of the epidemiological system described by ODE and PCA. Our main conclusions are: (1) the basic reproduction number (commonly called R(0)) related to a disease propagation in a population cannot be uniquely determined from some features of transient behavior of the infective group; (2) R(0) cannot be associated to a unique combination of clustering coefficient and average shortest path length characterizing the contact network. We discuss how these results can embarrass the specification of control strategies for combating disease propagations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formulating Mixed Models for Experiments, Including Longitudinal Experiments

Mixed models have become important in analyzing the results of experiments, particularly those that require more complicated models (e.g., those that involve longitudinal data). This article describes a method for deriving the terms in a mixed model. Our approach extends an earlier method by Brien and Bailey to explicitly identify terms for which autocorrelation and smooth trend arising from longitudinal observations need to be incorporated in the model. At the same time we retain the principle that the model used should include, at least, all the terms that are justified by the randomization. This is done by dividing the factors into sets, called tiers, based on the randomization and determining the crossing and nesting relationships between factors. The method is applied to formulate mixed models for a wide range of examples. We also describe the mixed model analysis of data from a three-phase experiment to investigate the effect of time of refinement on Eucalyptus pulp from four different sources. Cubic smoothing splines are used to describe differences in the trend over time and unstructured covariance matrices between times are found to be necessary.

Double generalized linear model for tissue culture proportion data: a Bayesian perspective

Joint generalized linear models and double generalized linear models (DGLMs) were designed to model outcomes for which the variability can be explained using factors and/or covariates. When such factors operate, the usual normal regression models, which inherently exhibit constant variance, will under-represent variation in the data and hence may lead to erroneous inferences. For count and proportion data, such noise factors can generate a so-called overdispersion effect, and the use of binomial and Poisson models underestimates the variability and, consequently, incorrectly indicate significant effects. In this manuscript, we propose a DGLM from a Bayesian perspective, focusing on the case of proportion data, where the overdispersion can be modeled using a random effect that depends on some noise factors. The posterior joint density function was sampled using Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithms, allowing inferences over the model parameters. An application to a data set on apple tissue culture is presented, for which it is shown that the Bayesian approach is quite feasible, even when limited prior information is available, thereby generating valuable insight for the researcher about its experimental results.

Effect of Calcium on the in vitro Growth of Aechmea blanchetiana (Baker) L. B. Smith Plantlets

This work investigated the influence of different concentrations of calcium on the growth of plantlets of the bromeliad Aechmea blanchetiana cultured in vitro. Seedlings of A. blanchetiana were axenically cultured in liquid Murashige and Skoog basal medium supplemented with different concentrations of calcium (Ca; 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, or 12 mM) without growth regulators. The resulting plantlets were cultured under 93 mol m-2 s-1 illumination, 12 hour photoperiod regime and 25C 1 for 120 days with subculture to fresh identical media every 30 days. The addition of calcium at 9.38 mM to MS modified medium increased the production of fresh and dry mass of plantlets, whilst chlorine from calcium chloride dehydrate (CaCl2 2 H2O) in excess (3.35 mM) decreased both the fresh and dry mass of plantlets.

Molecular Identification and Phylogenetic Analysis of a Group 16SrI-B Phytoplasma Associated with Sugarcane Yellow Leaf Syndrome in Brazil

Yellow leaf syndrome was a serious problem in the beginning of the 1990s in Brazil, when yield losses were estimated to be around 50%. The disease is currently endemic, but it is considered potentially important. Previous studies have revealed only the presence of a luteovirus associated with the disease in Brazil. We report that a phytoplasma of 16SrI-B is also associated with this disease. This is the first demonstration of the presence of a group 16SrI-B phytoplasma in association with sugarcane yellow leaf in Brazil.

Modeling soil organic carbon dynamics in Oxisols of Ibiruba (Brazil) with the Century Model

introduction of conservation practices in degraded agricultural land will generally recuperate soil quality, especially by increasing soil organic matter. This aspect of soil organic C (SOC) dynamics under distinct cropping and management systems can be conveniently analyzed with ecosystem models such as the Century Model. In this study, Century was used to simulate SOC stocks in farm fields of the Ibiruba region of north central Rio Grande do Sul state in Southern Brazil. The region, where soils are predominantly Oxisols, was originally covered with subtropical woodlands and grasslands. SOC dynamics was simulated with a general scenario developed with historical data on soil management and cropping systems beginning with the onset of agriculture in 1900. From 1993 to 2050, two contrasting scenarios based on no-tillage soil management were established: the status quo scenario, with crops and agricultural inputs as currently practiced in the region and the high biomass scenario with increased frequency of corn in the cropping system, resulting in about 80% higher biomass addition to soils. Century simulations were in close agreement with SOC stocks measured in 2005 in the Oxisols with finer texture surface horizon originally under woodlands. However, simulations in the Oxisols with loamy surface horizon under woodlands and in the grassland soils were not as accurate. SOC stock decreased from 44% to 50% in fields originally under woodland and from 20% to 27% in fields under grasslands with the introduction of intensive annual grain crops with intensive tillage and harrowing operations. The adoption of conservation practices in the 1980s led to a stabilization of SOC stocks followed by a partial recovery of native stocks. Simulations to 2050 indicate that maintaining status quo would allow SOC stocks to recover from 81% to 86% of the native stocks under woodland and from 80% to 91 % of the native stocks under grasslands. Adoption of a high biomass scenario would result in stocks from 75% to 95% of the original stocks under woodlands and from 89% to 102% in the grasslands by 2050. These simulations outcomes underline the importance of cropping system yielding higher biomass to further increase SOC content in these Oxisols. This application of the Century Model could reproduce general trends of SOC loss and recovery in the Oxisols of the Ibiruba region. Additional calibration and validation should be conducted before extensive usage of Century as a support tool for soil carbon sequestration projects in this and other regions can be recommended. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Persistent and remodeling hepatic preneoplastic lesions present differences in cell proliferation and apoptosis, as well as in p53, BcI-2 and NF-kappa B pathways

During rat hepatocarcinogenesis preneoplastic lesions (PNL) emerge which may persist (pPNL) and be sites of progress to cancer or suffer remodeling (rPNL) tending to disappear. Cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in both phenotypes are not sufficiently elucidated. pPNL and rPNL cellular proliferation and apoptosis were evaluated in rats submitted to the resistant hepatocyte (RH) model, and an adjusted growth index (AGI) was established. p53, Bcl-2, and NF-kappa B p65 subunit expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry in pPNL and rPNL. p65 expression and NF-kappa B activation was evaluated by Western blot assays in whole livers. A lower number of BrdU-stained hepatocyte nuclei/mm(2) and higher number of apoptotic bodies (AB) per mm(2) were observed in remodeling compared to pPNL. Cytoplasmic p53 accumulation is related to increased hepatocarcinoma malignancy. We observed that 71.3% pPNL and 25.4% rPNL (P < 0.05) presented p53 staining in the cytoplasm. Similarly, 67.7% pPNL and 23.1 % rPNL (P < 0.05) presented increased Bcl-2 staining. Thirty-two percent pPNL and 15.6% rPNL (P < 0.05) presented p65 staining. Compared to normal rats, increase (P < 0.05) of hepatic p65 expression and NF-kappa B activation in rats submitted to the RH model was observed. in agreement to previous studies hepatic pPNL and rPNL differ regarding cell proliferation and apoptosis. Moreover, persistence and remodeling involve differences in p53, Bcl-2, and NF-kappa B pathways. These data point to molecular pathways that may direct preneoplastic lesions to spontaneously regress or to progress to cancer.

Pleiotropic Effects With Equivalent Low-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Reduction: Comparative Study Between Simvastatin and Simvastatin/Ezetimibe Coadministration

Background: Coadministration of any statin with ezetimibe is as effective as using high doses of the same statin in the reduction Of tow-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c). There may be other effects called pleiotropics. Objective: To compare the effectiveness of 2 different treatments that obtain equivalent LDL-c reductions (80 mg of simvastatin, once a clay and coadministration of 10 mg of simvastatin and 10 mg of ezetimibe, once a day) over endothelial function and inflammation. Methods: Twenty-three randomized patients with hypercholesterolemia in a 2 X 2 crossover protocol were Studied. Endothelial function was analyzed by ultrasound assessment of endothelial dependent flow-mediated vasodilation of the brachial artery, and inflammation was estimated by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). Results: LDL-c reduction was similar between the 2 treatments with simvastatin/ezetimibe and with simvastatin (P < 0.001); no difference between treatments was found (P = 0.968). Both treatments improved significantly the endothelial function [3.61% with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.003) and 5.08%. with simvastatin (P < 0.001)]; no difference was found between the 2 treatments (P = 0.291). hs-CRP had a 23% reduction with simvastatin/ezetimibe (P = 0.004) and a 30% reduction with simvastatin alone (P = 0.01), with no significant difference between the 2 treatments (P = 0.380). Conclusion: The 2 forms of treatment presented similar pleiotropic effects: improvement in endothelial function and decrease in hsCRP levels.