Impact of land cover uncertainties on estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes

Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventory, are highly dependent on the assumed land cover. Most current land cover and land cover change maps are based on satellite data and are likely to be so for the foreseeable future. However, these maps show large differences, both at the class level and when transformed into Plant Functional Types (PFTs), and these can lead to large differences in terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated by Dynamic Vegetation Models. In this study the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is used. We compare PFT maps and the resulting fluxes arising from the use of widely available moderate (1 km) resolution satellite-derived land cover maps (the Global Land Cover 2000 and several MODIS classification schemes), with fluxes calculated using a reference high (25 m) resolution land cover map specific to Great Britain (the Land Cover Map 2000). We demonstrate that uncertainty is introduced into carbon flux calculations by (1) incorrect or uncertain assignment of land cover classes to PFTs; (2) information loss at coarser resolutions; (3) difficulty in discriminating some vegetation types from satellite data. When averaged over Great Britain, modeled CO2 fluxes derived using the different 1 km resolution maps differ from estimates made using the reference map. The ranges of these differences are 254 gC m−2 a−1 in Gross Primary Production (GPP); 133 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Primary Production (NPP); and 43 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In GPP this accounts for differences of −15.8% to 8.8%. Results for living biomass exhibit a range of 1109 gC m−2. The types of uncertainties due to land cover confusion are likely to be representative of many parts of the world, especially heterogeneous landscapes such as those found in western Europe.

The island and the world: kinship, friendship and living together in selected writings of Sam Selvon

This article argues that the ethical force of Trinidadian Sam Selvon’s creative writings comes from the particular configuration of living together that he is interested in, both in his Trinidadian novels and his London ones. It reads examples of this living together alongside and in difference that emerges through his focus on the relations between neighbours, friends and lovers, rather than the kinship relations of family. It argues that his works thereby map horizontal zones of attachment and possible solidarities across groupings that reconfigure vertically inscribed genealogical paradigms of belonging to place and each other based on models of historical continuity and inheritance.

Phytoplankton–zooplankton dynamics in the ‘presence’ or ‘absence’ of toxic phytoplankton

The inhibitory effects of toxin-producing phytoplankton (TPP) on zooplankton modulate the dynamics of marine plankton. In this article, we employ simple mathematical models to compare theoretically the dynamics of phytoplankton–zooplankton interaction in situations where the TPP are present with those where TPP are absent. We consider two sets of three-component interaction models: one that does not include the effect of TPP and the other that does. The negative effects of TPP on zooplankton is described by a non-linear interaction term. Extensive theoretical analyses of the models have been performed to understand the qualitative behaviour of the model systems around every possible equilibria. The results of local-stability analysis and numerical simulations demonstrate that the two model-systems differ qualitatively with regard to oscillations and stability. The model system that does not include TPP is asymptotically stable around the coexisting equilibria, whereas, the system that includes TPP oscillates for a range of parametric values associated with toxin-inhibition rate and competition coefficients. Our analysis suggests that the qualitative dynamics of the plankton–zooplankton interactions are very likely to alter due to the presence of TPP species, and therefore the effects of TPP should be considered carefully while modelling plankton dynamics.

Outwitted by the hidden: unsure emotions

In this paper the authors consider natural, feigned or absence of emotions in text-based dialogues. The dialogues occurred during interactions between human Judges/Interrogators and hidden entities in practical Turing tests implemented at Bletchley Park in June 2012. The authors focus on the interactions that left the Interrogator unable to say whether they were talking to a human or a machine after five minutes of questioning; the hidden interlocutor received an ‘unsure’ classification. In cases where the Judge has provided post-event feedback the authors present their rationale from three viva voce one-to-one Turing tests. The authors find that emoticons and other visual devices used to express feelings in text-based interaction were missing in the conversations between the Interrogators and hidden interlocutors.

Effects of agricultural management practices on earthworm populations and crop yield: validation and application of a mechanistic modelling approach

There is little consensus on how agriculture will meet future food demands sustainably. Soils and their biota play a crucial role by mediating ecosystem services that support agricultural productivity. However, a multitude of site-specific environmental factors and management practices interact to affect the ability of soil biota to perform vital functions, confounding the interpretation of results from experimental approaches. Insights can be gained through models, which integrate the physiological, biological and ecological mechanisms underpinning soil functions. We present a powerful modelling approach for predicting how agricultural management practices (pesticide applications and tillage) affect soil functioning through earthworm populations. By combining energy budgets and individual-based simulation models, and integrating key behavioural and ecological drivers, we accurately predict population responses to pesticide applications in different climatic conditions. We use the model to analyse the ecological consequences of different weed management practices. Our results demonstrate that an important link between agricultural management (herbicide applications and zero, reduced and conventional tillage) and earthworms is the maintenance of soil organic matter (SOM). We show how zero and reduced tillage practices can increase crop yields while preserving natural ecosystem functions. This demonstrates how management practices which aim to sustain agricultural productivity should account for their effects on earthworm populations, as their proliferation stimulates agricultural productivity. Synthesis and applications. Our results indicate that conventional tillage practices have longer term effects on soil biota than pesticide control, if the pesticide has a short dissipation time. The risk of earthworm populations becoming exposed to toxic pesticides will be reduced under dry soil conditions. Similarly, an increase in soil organic matter could increase the recovery rate of earthworm populations. However, effects are not necessarily additive and the impact of different management practices on earthworms depends on their timing and the prevailing environmental conditions. Our model can be used to determine which combinations of crop management practices and climatic conditions pose least overall risk to earthworm populations. Linking our model mechanistically to crop yield models would aid the optimization of crop management systems by exploring the trade-off between different ecosystem services.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Application of data assimilation to ocean and climate prediction

Ocean prediction systems are now able to analyse and predict temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the ocean by assimilating measurements of the ocean’s temperature and salinity into physically based ocean models. Data assimilation combines current estimates of state variables, such as temperature and salinity, from a computational model with measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in order to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty in the forecast accuracy. Data assimilation generally works well with ocean models away from the equator but has been found to induce vigorous and unrealistic overturning circulations near the equator. A pressure correction method was developed at the University of Reading and the Met Office to control these circulations using ideas from control theory and an understanding of equatorial dynamics. The method has been used for the last 10 years in seasonal forecasting and ocean prediction systems at the Met Office and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It has been an important element in recent re-analyses of the ocean heat uptake that mitigates climate change.

The impact of location and type on the performance of Low-Voltage network connected Battery Energy Storage Systems

This paper assesses the impact of the location and configuration of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on Low-Voltage (LV) feeders. BESS are now being deployed on LV networks by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) as an alternative to conventional reinforcement (e.g. upgrading cables and transformers) in response to increased electricity demand from new technologies such as electric vehicles. By storing energy during periods of low demand and then releasing that energy at times of high demand, the peak demand of a given LV substation on the grid can be reduced therefore mitigating or at least delaying the need for replacement and upgrade. However, existing research into this application of BESS tends to evaluate the aggregated impact of such systems at the substation level and does not systematically consider the impact of the location and configuration of BESS on the voltage profiles, losses and utilisation within a given feeder. In this paper, four configurations of BESS are considered: single-phase, unlinked three-phase, linked three-phase without storage for phase-balancing only, and linked three-phase with storage. These four configurations are then assessed based on models of two real LV networks. In each case, the impact of the BESS is systematically evaluated at every node in the LV network using Matlab linked with OpenDSS. The location and configuration of a BESS is shown to be critical when seeking the best overall network impact or when considering specific impacts on voltage, losses, or utilisation separately. Furthermore, the paper also demonstrates that phase-balancing without energy storage can provide much of the gains on unbalanced networks compared to systems with energy storage.

The land-atmosphere water flux in the tropics

Tropical vegetation is a major source of global land surface evapotranspiration, and can thus play a major role in global hydrological cycles and global atmospheric circulation. Accurate prediction of tropical evapotranspiration is critical to our understanding of these processes under changing climate. We examined the controls on evapotranspiration in tropical vegetation at 21 pan-tropical eddy covariance sites, conducted a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of 13 evapotranspiration models at these sites, and assessed the ability to scale up model estimates of evapotranspiration for the test region of Amazonia. Net radiation was the strongest determinant of evapotranspiration (mean evaporative fraction was 0.72) and explained 87% of the variance in monthly evapotranspiration across the sites. Vapor pressure deficit was the strongest residual predictor (14%), followed by normalized difference vegetation index (9%), precipitation (6%) and wind speed (4%). The radiation-based evapotranspiration models performed best overall for three reasons: (1) the vegetation was largely decoupled from atmospheric turbulent transfer (calculated from X decoupling factor), especially at the wetter sites; (2) the resistance-based models were hindered by difficulty in consistently characterizing canopy (and stomatal) resistance in the highly diverse vegetation; (3) the temperature-based models inadequately captured the variability in tropical evapotranspiration. We evaluated the potential to predict regional evapotranspiration for one test region: Amazonia. We estimated an Amazonia-wide evapotranspiration of 1370 mm yr(-1), but this value is dependent on assumptions about energy balance closure for the tropical eddy covariance sites; a lower value (1096 mm yr(-1)) is considered in discussion on the use of flux data to validate and interpolate models.

Analysis of a hyper-diverse seed dispersal network: modularity and underlying mechanisms

Mutualistic interactions involving pollination and ant-plant mutualistic networks typically feature tightly linked species grouped in modules. However, such modularity is infrequent in seed dispersal networks, presumably because research on those networks predominantly includes a single taxonomic animal group (e.g. birds). Herein, for the first time, we examine the pattern of interaction in a network that includes multiple taxonomic groups of seed dispersers, and the mechanisms underlying modularity. We found that the network was nested and modular, with five distinguishable modules. Our examination of the mechanisms underlying such modularity showed that plant and animal trait values were associated with specific modules but phylogenetic effect was limited. Thus, the pattern of interaction in this network is only partially explained by shared evolutionary history. We conclude that the observed modularity emerged by a combination of phylogenetic history and trait convergence of phylogenetically unrelated species, shaped by interactions with particular types of dispersal agents.

Melanopsin and Clock Genes: Regulation by Light and Endothelin in the Zebrafish ZEM-2S Cell Line

It is well known that clocks are present in brain regions other than the suprachiasmatic nucleus and in many peripheral tissues. In the teleost, Danio rerio, peripheral oscillators can be directly synchronized by light. Danio rerio ZEM-2S embryonic cells respond to light with differential growth: cells kept in constant light exhibited a strong inhibition of proliferation, whereas in cells kept in light:dark (LD) cycles (14L:10D and 10L:14D) or in constant darkness (DD), the doubling times were not statistically different. We demonstrated by RT-PCR followed by PCR that ZEM-2S cells express two melanopsins, Opn4x and Opn4m, and the six Cry genes. The presence of the protein OPN4x was demonstrated by immunocytochemistry. The pattern of temporal expression of the genes Opn4x, Per1, Cry1b, and Clock was studied in ZEM-2S cells kept for five days in 12L:12D or DD. In 12L:12D, the clock genes Per 1 and Cry1b exhibited robust circadian expression, while Opn4x and Clock expression seemed to vary in an ultradian pattern. Both Per1 and Cry1b genes had higher expression during the L phase; Clock gene had an increase in expression coincident with the D phase, and during the subjective night. In DD, the temporal variation of Per1 and Cry1b genes was greatly attenuated but not extinguished, and the higher expressions were shifted to the transition times between subjective day and night, demonstrating that Per and Cry1b were synchronized by the LD cycle. Clock and Opn4x kept the ultradian oscillation, but the rhythm was not statistically significant. As endothelins (ET) have been reported to be a potent stimulator of Per genes in rodents, we investigated the effect of endothelin on ZEM-2S cells, which express ETA receptors. Cells were kept in 12D:12L for five days, and then treated with 10-11 to 10-8M ET-1 for 24h. ET-1 exhibited a biphasic effect on Opn4x expression. At 10-11M, the hormone exerted a highly significant stimulation of Opn4x expression during the L phase and introduced a circadian oscillatory pattern. At 10-10M, a significant increase was seen at ZT21 and ZT0 (i.e., at the end of the D phase and beginning of the L phase), whereas 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 inhibited the expression of Opn4x at most ZTs. Clock expression was unaffected by 10-8M ET-1; however, in the presence of lower concentrations, the expression was enhanced at some ZTs, strengthening the ultradian oscillation. ET-1 at 10-11 and 10-10M had no effect on Per1 circadian expression; however, 10-9 and 10-8M ET-1 reduced the amplitude of Per1 expression in the beginning of the L phase. ET-1 effects were less evident on Cry 1b. For both genes, the reduction in expression was not sufficient to abolish the circadian oscillatory pattern. Based on these results and data in the literature, a link between ET-1 stimulation of ETA receptors may be established by E4BP4 binding to the promoters and consequent inhibition of gene expression.

Adapting Web content for low-literacy readers by using lexical elaboration and named entities labeling

This paper presents an approach for assisting low-literacy readers in accessing Web online information. The oEducational FACILITAo tool is a Web content adaptation tool that provides innovative features and follows more intuitive interaction models regarding accessibility concerns. Especially, we propose an interaction model and a Web application that explore the natural language processing tasks of lexical elaboration and named entity labeling for improving Web accessibility. We report on the results obtained from a pilot study on usability analysis carried out with low-literacy users. The preliminary results show that oEducational FACILITAo improves the comprehension of text elements, although the assistance mechanisms might also confuse users when word sense ambiguity is introduced, by gathering, for a complex word, a list of synonyms with multiple meanings. This fact evokes a future solution in which the correct sense for a complex word in a sentence is identified, solving this pervasive characteristic of natural languages. The pilot study also identified that experienced computer users find the tool to be more useful than novice computer users do.

Observational constraints on the dark energy and dark matter mutual coupling

We examine different phenomenological interaction models for Dark Energy and Dark Matter by performing statistical joint analysis with observational data arising from the 182 Gold type la supernova samples, the shift parameter of the Cosmic Microwave Background given by the three-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe observations, the baryon acoustic oscillation measurement from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and age estimates of 35 galaxies. Including the time-dependent observable, we add sensitivity of measurement and give complementary results for the fitting. The compatibility among three different data sets seem to imply that the coupling between dark energy and dark matter is a small positive value, which satisfies the requirement to solve the coincidence problem and the second law of thermodynamics, being compatible with previous estimates. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the properties of galactic cosmic rays with the KASCADE-Grande experiment

The properties of galactic cosmic rays are investigated with the KASCADE-Grande experiment in the energy range between 10(14) and 10(18) eV. Recent results are discussed. They concern mainly the all-particle energy spectrum and the elemental composition of cosmic rays. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mellan frihet och kontroll : Om läroplanskonstruktioner i svensk skola

The aim of this thesis is to explore how different competing discourses in the historical context of the Swedish education development have qualified and disqualified different constructions of national curriculum. How and after what kind of principles is the curriculum constructed? What qualify who are going to be recognized as the author and addressee of the curriculum? These key ques-tions of the study are discussed in the first part of the thesis. My point of depar-ture is that the curriculum can be understood as a relation between freedom and control. In an educational system this relationship reflects the problematic ten-sion between the external demands from an authoritative center and the local need to independently reflect over educational issues. How these concepts are defined by the prevailing social discourses affect specific relations and construc-tions of curricula as a steering tool and a producer of specific teacher identities. In this sense, I claim that curriculum is constructed in different ways depending on which of the didactic questions are emphasized and answered and who is judged as the legitimate author. Based on this, three models of curriculum con-struction are formulated; the content based, the result based and the process based. These models are subsequently used as an analytical tool to examine the historical development of Swedish national curricula. The second part of the thesis investigates the Swedish education system and the production of the national curriculum as a product of rival discourses. The historical investigation begins 1842 when the first state curriculum was issued and the inquiry concludes in 2008. The findings indicate that no one single con-struction has been totally dominant and that there has been an on-going discur-sive struggle between different alternative and opinions about what teachers must do and be.