Relating MODIS vegetation index time-series with structure, light absorption and stem production of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations

By allowing the estimation of forest structural and biophysical characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales, remote sensing may contribute to our understanding and monitoring of planted forests. Here, we studied 9-year time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on a network of 16 stands in fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. We aimed to examine the relationships between NDVI time-series spanning entire rotations and stand structural characteristics (volume, dominant height, mean annual increment) in these simple forest ecosystems. Our second objective was to examine spatial and temporal variations of light use efficiency for wood production, by comparing time-series of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (APAR) with inventory data. Relationships were calibrated between the NDVI and the fractions of intercepted diffuse and direct radiation, using hemispherical photographs taken on the studied stands at two seasons. APAR was calculated from the NDVI time-series using these relationships. Stem volume and dominant height were strongly correlated with summed NDVI values between planting date and inventory date. Stand productivity was correlated with mean NDVI values. APAR during the first 2 years of growth was variable between stands and was well correlated with stem wood production (r(2) = 0.78). In contrast, APAR during the following years was less variable and not significantly correlated with stem biomass increments. Production of wood per unit of absorbed light varied with stand age and with site index. In our study, a better site index was accompanied both by increased APAR during the first 2 years of growth and by higher light use efficiency for stem wood production during the whole rotation. Implications for simple process-based modelling are discussed. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hepatic structure-pharmacokinetic relationships: The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl derivatives of salicylic acid

1 The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl (acetyl, propionyl, butanoyl, pentanoyl, hexanoyl and octanoyl) esters of salicylic acid (C2SA, C3SA, C4SA, C5SA, C6SA and C8SA, respectively) was determined using a single-pass, in-sills rat liver preparation. 2 The hepatic venous outflow profiles for the parent esters and the generated metabolite, salicylic acid (SA) were analysed by HPLC. Non-parametric moments analysis was used to determine the area under the curve (AUC'), mean transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) for the parent esters and generated SA. 3 Pregenerated SA ([C-14]-salicylic acid) was injected into each liver with the parent ester to determine its distribution characteristics. 4 The overall recovery of ester plus metabolite was 89% of the ester dose injected and independent of the ester carbon number, suggesting that ester extraction was due to hepatic metabolism to salicylic acid. 5 The metabolite AUC' value increased directly with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 0.12 for C2SA to 0.95 for C8SA). By contrast, the parent AUC' decreased with the lipophilicity (from 0.85 for C2SA to zero for C8SA). The metabolite MTT value also showed a trend to increase with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 15.72 s for C3SA to 61.97 s for C8SA). However, the parent MTT value shows no significant change across the series. 6 The two-compartment dispersion model was used to derive the kinetic parameters for parent ester, pregenerated SA and generated SA. Consequently, these parameters were used to estimate the values of AUG', MITT and CV2 for the parent ester and metabolite. The moments values obtained using the two-compartment dispersion model show similar trends to the corresponding moments values obtained from the outflow profiles using a non-parametric approach. 7 The more lipophilic aspirin analogues are more confined to the portal circulation after oral administration than aspirin due to their more extensive hepatic elimination avoiding systemic prostacyclin inhibition. Given that aspirin's selectivity as an anti-thrombotic agent has been postulated to be due to selective anti-platelet effects in the portal circulation, the more lipophilic and highly extracted analogues are potentially more selective anti-thrombotic agents than aspirin.

Simulation and optimization of heated, inviscid flows in scramjet ducts

A space-marching code for the simulation and optimization of inviscid supersonic flow in three dimensions is described. The now in a scramjet module with a relatively complex three-dimensional geometry is examined and wall-pressure estimates are compared with experimental data. Given that viscous effects are not presently included, the comparison is reasonable. The thermodynamic compromise of adding heat in a diverging combustor is also examined. The code is then used to optimize the shape of a thrust surface for a simpler (box-section) scramjet module in the presence of uniform and nonuniform heat distributions. The optimum two-dimensional profiles for the thrust surface are obtained via a perturbation procedure that requires about 30-50 now solutions. It is found that the final shapes are fairly insensitive to the details of the heat distribution.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

Phylogeny of the Limnophilinae (Limoniidae) and early evolution of the Tipulomorpha (Diptera)

Tipulomorpha (craneflies) comprise one of the largest subgroups of Diptera, but its phylogeny at different levels has been poorly explored. This study presents the most comprehensive cladistic analysis of the group ever made, with emphasis on the genera and subgenera of the subfamily Limnophilinae (Limoniidae), assumed to include some of the earliest lineages of Tipulomorpha sensu stricto and therefore important for the understanding of the early patterns in the evolution of the craneflies. Eighty-eight characters of the male imago were scored for 104 exemplar species. The most parsimonious trees were searched using implied weighting, in the framework of a sensitivity analysis with different values of k (2 to 6). The dataset based on the characters of adult male morphology showed high levels of homoplasy and yielded very incongruent and unstable phylogenetic results, which are very sensitive to changes in analytical parameters. In the preferred and most parsimonious phylogenetic hypothesis, the Pediciidae is the sister-group of all other Tipulomorpha sensu stricto. The results indicate the paraphyly of the Limoniidae with respect to the Cylindrotomidae and Tipulidae, which are considered sister-groups. The Limoniidae subfamilies Limnophilinae, Limoniinae and Chioneinae are considered non-monophyletic. The study allowed a reconstruction of the possible ground plan condition of selected features of the adult male morphology of craneflies. The genera/subgenera Epiphragma (Epiphragma), Acantholimnophila, Shannonomyia, Limnophila (Arctolimnophila), Eloeophila, Conosia, Polymera, Polymera (Polymerodes), Prionolabis, Eutonia, Phylidorea (Phylidorea), Metalimnophila, Gynoplistia (Cerozodia), Gynoplistia (Dirhipis), Nothophila, Pseudolimnophila (Pseudolimnophila), Pilaria and Ulomorpha are considered monophyletic, but in general are defined by combinations of very homoplastic character states. Two Temperate Gondwanan clades, (Tonnoirella + (Edwardsomyia + (Tinemyia + (Rhamphophila + (Nothophila))))) and ((Notholimnophila + Bergrothomyia) + (Mesolimnophila + (Chilelimnophila + Ctenolimnophila))) are recovered. The genera Limnophila, Neolimnomyia, Gynoplistia (sensu lato) and Hexatoma (sensu lato) are considered non-monophyletic. The systematic position and some morphological characters of `problematic` taxa, such as Dactylolabis, Elephantomyia, Helius and Atarba are discussed on the light of the proposed phylogeny and the analysis of the characters. Character states are richly illustrated. A detailed study of the morphology of the male genitalia is made, and several genera and species have the morphology of the male genitalia illustrated for the first time.

A comparison of observed versus estimated baseline creatinine for determination of RIFLE class in patients with acute kidney injury

Methods. Data from the Beginning and Ending Supportive Therapy for the Kidney (BEST Kidney) study, a prospective observational study from 54 ICUs in 23 countries of critically ill patients with severe AKI, were analysed. The RIFLE class was determined by using observed (o) pre-morbid and estimated (e) baseline SCr values. Agreement was evaluated by correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots. Sensitivity analysis by chronic kidney disease (CKD) status was performed. Results. Seventy-six percent of patients (n = 1327) had a pre-morbid baseline SCr, and 1314 had complete data for evaluation. Forty-six percent had CKD. The median (IQR) values were 97 mu mol/L (79-150) for oSCr and 88 mu mol/L (71-97) for eSCr. The oSCr and eSCr determined at ICU admission and at study enrolment showed only a modest correlation (r = 0.49, r = 0.39). At ICU admission and study enrolment, eSCr misclassified 18.8% and 11.7% of patients as having AKI compared with oSCr. Exclusion of CKD patients improved the correlation between oSCr and eSCr at ICU admission and study enrolment (r = 0.90, r = 0.84) resulting in 6.6% and 4.0% being misclassified, respectively. Conclusions. While limited, estimating baseline SCr by the MDRD equation when pre-morbid SCr is unavailable would appear to perform reasonably well for determining the RIFLE categories only if and when pre-morbid GFR was near normal. However, in patients with suspected CKD, the use of MDRD to estimate baseline SCr overestimates the incidence of AKI and should not likely be used. Improved methods to estimate baseline SCr are needed.

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.

A randomized controlled trial assessing the health economics of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional care: an urban versus rural perspective

A randomized controlled trial was carried out to measure the cost-effectiveness of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional outpatient dermatology care for patients from urban and rural areas. One urban and one rural health centre were linked to a regional hospital in Northern Ireland by ISDN at 128 kbit/s. Over two years, 274 patients required a hospital outpatient dermatology referral -126 patients (46%) were randomized to a telemedicine consultation and 148 (54%) to a conventional hospital outpatient consultation. Of those seen by telemedicine, 61% were registered with an urban practice, compared with 71% of those seen conventionally. The clinical outcomes of the two types of consultation were similar - almost half the patients were managed after a single consultation with the dermatologist. The observed marginal cost per patient of the initial realtime teledermatology consultation was f52.85 for those in urban areas and f59.93 per patient for those from rural areas. The observed marginal cost of the initial conventional consultation was f47.13 for urban patients and f48.77 for rural patients. The total observed costs of teledermatology were higher than the costs of conventional care in both urban and rural areas, mainly because of the fixed equipment costs. Sensitivity analysis using a real-world scenario showed that in urban areas the average costs of the telemedicine and conventional consultations were about equal, while in rural areas the average cost of the telemedicine consultation was less than that of the conventional consultation.

The effects of time delays in adaptive phase measurements

It is not possible to make measurements of the phase of an optical mode using linear optics without introducing an extra phase uncertainty. This extra phase variance is quite large for heterodyne measurements, however it is possible to reduce it to the theoretical limit of log (n) over bar (4 (n) over bar (2)) using adaptive measurements. These measurements are quite sensitive to experimental inaccuracies, especially time delays and inefficient detectors. Here it is shown that the minimum introduced phase variance when there is a time delay of tau is tau/(8 (n) over bar). This result is verified numerically, showing that the phase variance introduced approaches this limit for most of the adaptive schemes using the best final phase estimate. The main exception is the adaptive mark II scheme with simplified feedback, which is extremely sensitive to time delays. The extra phase variance due to time delays is considered for the mark I case with simplified feedback, verifying the tau /2 result obtained by Wiseman and Killip both by a more rigorous analytic technique and numerically.

A mixture model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data

Motivation: This paper introduces the software EMMIX-GENE that has been developed for the specific purpose of a model-based approach to the clustering of microarray expression data, in particular, of tissue samples on a very large number of genes. The latter is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. A feasible approach is provided by first selecting a subset of the genes relevant for the clustering of the tissue samples by fitting mixtures of t distributions to rank the genes in order of increasing size of the likelihood ratio statistic for the test of one versus two components in the mixture model. The imposition of a threshold on the likelihood ratio statistic used in conjunction with a threshold on the size of a cluster allows the selection of a relevant set of genes. However, even this reduced set of genes will usually be too large for a normal mixture model to be fitted directly to the tissues, and so the use of mixtures of factor analyzers is exploited to reduce effectively the dimension of the feature space of genes. Results: The usefulness of the EMMIX-GENE approach for the clustering of tissue samples is demonstrated on two well-known data sets on colon and leukaemia tissues. For both data sets, relevant subsets of the genes are able to be selected that reveal interesting clusterings of the tissues that are either consistent with the external classification of the tissues or with background and biological knowledge of these sets.

A genomewide search for type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes in indigenous Australians

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Australian residents is 7.5%; however, prevalence rates up to six times higher have been reported for indigenous Australian communities. Epidemiological evidence implicates genetic factors in the susceptibility of indigenous Australians to type 2 diabetes and supports the hypothesis of the thrifty genotype, but, to date, the nature of the genetic predisposition is unknown. We have ascertained clinical details from a community of indigenous Australian descent in North Stradbroke Island, Queensland. In this population, the phenotype is characterized by severe insulin resistance. We have conducted a genomewide scan, at an average resolution of 10 cM, for type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes in a large multigeneration pedigree from this community. Parametric linkage analysis undertaken using FASTLINK version 4.1p yielded a maximum two-point LOD score of +2.97 at marker D2S2345. Multipoint analysis yielded a peak LOD score of +3.9

Metodologia para obtenção do hidrograma de escoamento superficial em encostas e canais. Parte II: modelo computacional e análise de sensibilidade

Estimativas de vazão máxima de escoamento superficial são necessárias para o projeto de obras hidráulicas em bacias urbanas e rurais. A dificuldade em aplicar os procedimentos disponíveis para calcular a variação do escoamento superficial com o tempo e de seu valor máximo deve-se à inexatidão dos métodos usados para esse objetivo e à variabilidade nos resultados que podem ser obtidos por profissionais que usem o mesmo procedimento. Dessa forma, a investigação de um método que produza estimativas confiáveis da vazão máxima e do hidrograma de escoamento superficial é de grande interesse. Neste trabalho, desenvolveu-se e avaliou-se a sensibilidade de um software (HIDROGRAMA 2.1) que permite a obtenção do hidrograma de escoamento superficial, da vazão máxima e seu tempo de ocorrência, da altura e da velocidade máximas do escoamento, do volume e da lâmina de escoamento superficial em encosta e em canais. O modelo apresentou grande sensibilidade ao período de retorno, à taxa de infiltração estável e ao comprimento da encosta e do canal.