Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Flat, flatter, flattest: the English Heritage wetland surveys in retrospect

Since 1973, English Heritage has supported four major regional surveys of England's wetlands- in the Somerset Levels, the Fens of Eastern England, the wetlands of the northwest of England and the Humber wetlands. Each of these projects developed a range of methods and techniques particular to the landscape that was studied and the results from the surveys reflect this diversity of approach. This paper compares and contrast these approaches, and evaluates their effect on the overall results of each of these surveys.

Cross-sector surveys assessing perceptions of key stakeholders towards barriers, concerns and facilitators to the appropriate use of adaptive designs in confirmatory trials

Background Appropriately conducted adaptive designs (ADs) offer many potential advantages over conventional trials. They make better use of accruing data, potentially saving time, trial participants, and limited resources compared to conventional, fixed sample size designs. However, one can argue that ADs are not implemented as often as they should be, particularly in publicly funded confirmatory trials. This study explored barriers, concerns, and potential facilitators to the appropriate use of ADs in confirmatory trials among key stakeholders. Methods We conducted three cross-sectional, online parallel surveys between November 2014 and January 2015. The surveys were based upon findings drawn from in-depth interviews of key research stakeholders, predominantly in the UK, and targeted Clinical Trials Units (CTUs), public funders, and private sector organisations. Response rates were as follows: 30(55 %) UK CTUs, 17(68 %) private sector, and 86(41 %) public funders. A Rating Scale Model was used to rank barriers and concerns in order of perceived importance for prioritisation. Results Top-ranked barriers included the lack of bridge funding accessible to UK CTUs to support the design of ADs, limited practical implementation knowledge, preference for traditional mainstream designs, difficulties in marketing ADs to key stakeholders, time constraints to support ADs relative to competing priorities, lack of applied training, and insufficient access to case studies of undertaken ADs to facilitate practical learning and successful implementation. Associated practical complexities and inadequate data management infrastructure to support ADs were reported as more pronounced in the private sector. For funders of public research, the inadequate description of the rationale, scope, and decision-making criteria to guide the planned AD in grant proposals by researchers were all viewed as major obstacles. Conclusions There are still persistent and important perceptions of individual and organisational obstacles hampering the use of ADs in confirmatory trials research. Stakeholder perceptions about barriers are largely consistent across sectors, with a few exceptions that reflect differences in organisations’ funding structures, experiences and characterisation of study interventions. Most barriers appear connected to a lack of practical implementation knowledge and applied training, and limited access to case studies to facilitate practical learning. Keywords: Adaptive designs; flexible designs; barriers; surveys; confirmatory trials; Phase 3; clinical trials; early stopping; interim analyses

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes. Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions. Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of Sao Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance. Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

Risk factors for dengue virus infection in rural Amazonia: Population-based cross-sectional surveys

A comparison of dengue virus (DENV) antibody levels in paired serum samples collected from predominantly DENV-naive residents in an agricultural settlement in Brazilian Amazonia (baseline seroprevalence, 18.3%) showed a seroconversion rate of 3.67 episodes/100 person-years at risk during 12 months of follow-up. Multivariate analysis identified male sex, poverty, and migration from extra-Amazonian states as significant predictors of baseline DENY seropositivity, whereas male sex, a history of clinical diagnosis of dengue fever, and travel to an urban area predicted subsequent seroconversion. The laboratory surveillance of acute febrile illnesses implemented at the study site and in a nearby town between 2004 and 2006 confirmed 11. DENV infections among 102 episodes studied with DENV IgM detection, reverse transcriptase-polymerise chain reaction, and virus isolation; DENV-3 was isolated. Because DENV exposure is associated with migration or travel, personal protection measures when visiting high-risk urban areas may reduce the incidence of DENV infection in this rural population.

The signature of dark energy perturbations in galaxy cluster surveys

Models of dynamical dark energy unavoidably possess fluctuations in the energy density and pressure of that new component. In this paper we estimate the impact of dark energy fluctuations on the number of galaxy clusters in the Universe using a generalization of the spherical collapse model and the Press-Schechter formalism. The observations we consider are several hypothetical Sunyaev-Zel`dovich and weak lensing (shear maps) cluster surveys, with limiting masses similar to ongoing (SPT, DES) as well as future (LSST, Euclid) surveys. Our statistical analysis is performed in a 7-dimensional cosmological parameter space using the Fisher matrix method. We find that, in some scenarios, the impact of these fluctuations is large enough that their effect could already be detected by existing instruments such as the South Pole Telescope, when priors from other standard cosmological probes are included. We also show how dark energy fluctuations can be a nuisance for constraining cosmological parameters with cluster counts, and point to a degeneracy between the parameter that describes dark energy pressure on small scales (the effective sound speed) and the parameters describing its equation of state.

Graduate School and University Center Archives Finding Aid - Record Group VII: CUNY

This is part of the finding aid to the Graduate School and University Center (GSUC) Archives. Record Group VII is materials about the City University of New York, transferred from the Mina Rees Library and the Provost's Office. Also included in this group are the records of the Research Foundation.

Expanding the online math homework system WeBWork to CUNY

Math teachers everywhere agree: the way to learn math is to do math. Effective homework is a key to a successful math course. With this goal in mind, a group of math professors at BCC spent the last year working with the online homework system WeBWork. Our intention is to expand our current implementation, with the hope of working across campuses. We will discuss the advantages of WeBWork and how we might work collaboratively across CUNY.

Governança no setor público: diagnóstico das práticas de gestão da Polícia Federal à luz do estudo 13 do PSC/IFAC

No Brasil, a sociedade observa atônita a corrupção, o descaso com o dinheiro público e a prestação de serviços essenciais, que ficam aquém de suas expectativas. Para que haja mudanças no setor público, torna-se imprescindível a adoção de boas práticas de governança que promovam a adequação dos serviços prestados, de forma que possam se tornar mais eficientes e eficazes. Nessa seara, incluem-se as instituições provedoras de segurança pública, que, para cumprir suas atribuições, precisam estar bem equipadas, possuir recursos humanos suficientes e apresentar uma gestão íntegra, transparente e responsável. Nesse contexto, esta dissertação teve como objetivo diagnosticar as práticas de gestão da Polícia Federal e compará-las aos padrões de boa governança no setor público recomendados pelo Estudo 13 do PSC/IFAC. Os resultados demonstraram que grande parte das práticas de gestão adotadas pela Polícia Federal apresenta-se em conformidade com as boas práticas de governança sugeridas no referido Estudo. Destacaram-se positivamente as práticas relacionadas a padrões de comportamento e a estruturas e processos organizacionais. Por outro lado, constatou-se a inexistência de um código de conduta próprio e a ausência de treinamento inicial do membro do grupo governante, quando de sua nomeação ou durante seu mandato. Quanto às práticas de gestão relacionadas a controle, foram diagnosticadas falhas em gestão de riscos, em decorrência da falta de aplicação em todos os objetivos organizacionais. Comportamento semelhante foi observado no controle interno, que, apesar de ser constantemente monitorado, não pode ser avaliado quanto à adequação e efetividade. Quanto às práticas relativas a relatórios externos, constatou-se que a instituição elabora relatórios equilibrados, transparentes e de fácil compreensão, em conformidade com a legislação vigente e padrões contábeis. Entretanto, a Polícia Federal não demonstrou expressamente o cumprimento de códigos de governança, tampouco empregou indicadores de desempenho suficientes para mostrar que os recursos vêm sendo usados com eficiência. Concluiu-se que a Polícia Federal adota boas práticas de gestão, mas ainda pode implementar outras recomendações de boa governança, contribuindo para que o país caminhe para atingir a excelência na gestão dos recursos públicos e assuma uma posição de destaque no cenário internacional.

Matizes das significações do ato infracional da adolescência feminina em cumprimento de medida sócio-educativa no Programa de PSC - Prestação de Serviços à Comunidade da UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul

O presente estudo busca a compreensão dos matizes das significações do ato infracional da adolescência feminina em cumprimento de medida sócio-educativa no Programa de PSC – Prestação de Serviços à Comunidade da UFRGS. A apreensão das significações do ato infracional se dá a partir dos elementos contidos nas entrevistas em profundidade realizadas com três meninas e nos registros dos relatos das demais que passaram pelo Programa de julho/1997 a dezembro/2003. No processo de análise, ancorado na perspectiva da RedSig – Rede de Significações, são levados em conta os aspectos desenvolvimentais da fase adolescente e os aspectos sócio-econômico-culturais que possam tecer as significações do ato infracional da adolescência feminina. Dentre alguns matizes das significações do ato infracional cometido pelas meninas identifica-se uma estreita relação com a fragilidade das suas relações sócio-familiares e com as suas parcas condições econômicas que, somadas ao apelo da mídia ao modismo contemporâneo, as impele ao cometimento de infrações contra o patrimônio, especialmente de furtos e roubos. Outros matizes se referem à necessidade imperiosa das meninas de se sentirem pertencentes ao grupo de iguais e de se lançarem no experimento de coisas novas e desafiantes – característica peculiar da adolescência –, bem como de buscarem subterfúgios para abrandar as contradições vivenciadas nessa fase. Há ainda a necessidade de manter a sua integridade, de ter reparado os seus prejuízos e o desejo de ocupar um lugar de reconhecimento. Sobretudo, um outro matiz das significações de seu ato infracional aponta uma íntima relação com o sexo masculino, especialmente na ocorrência de brigas com outras meninas, evidenciando a disputa do amor pelo sexo que lhe é oposto.

Radon surveys in Brazil using CR-39

In this work results of two radon daughters survey in Brazil are presented and discussed. Some methodological problems concerning the first survey are pointed out which were corrected for the second survey in order to make a realistic long-term measurement of radon decay products in the air. The technique employed in both surveys was the alpha-spectroscopy using CR-39. The reliability of this technique as well as the results of the second survey are discussed, which indicate a poor correlation between radon and its decay products in the air at the researched dwellings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.