Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.

Vox Populi, Vox Dei? A closer look at the ‘public opinion’ argument for retention

The Japanese government’s justification for retaining the death penalty is that abolition would erode the legitimacy of and public trust in the criminal justice system, leading to victims’ families taking justice into their own hands. This justification is based on the results of a regularly administered public opinion survey, which is said to show strong public support for the death penalty. However, a close analysis of the results of the 2014 survey fails to validate this claim. Just over a third of respondents were committed to retaining the death penalty at all costs, while the rest accepted the possibility of future abolition, with some of them seeing this as contingent on the introduction of life imprisonment without parole as an alternative sentence. These findings hardly describe a society that expects the strict application of the death penalty and whose trust in justice depends on the government’s commitment to retaining it. My reading of the 2014 survey is that the Japanese public is ready to embrace abolition. Japan, after all, is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which calls on states not to delay or prevent abolition, so this should be welcome news for the Japanese government!

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

世論という神話―望むのは「死刑」ですか？’ (Public opinion myth: is ‘death’ what we really want?)

This paper summarises Mai Sato's recent report on public attitudes to the death penalty in Japan.

Opinion dynamics of learning agents: does seeking consensus lead to disagreement?

We study opinion dynamics in a population of interacting adaptive agents voting on a set of issues represented by vectors. We consider agents who can classify issues into one of two categories and can arrive at their opinions using an adaptive algorithm. Adaptation comes from learning and the information for the learning process comes from interacting with other neighboring agents and trying to change the internal state in order to concur with their opinions. The change in the internal state is driven by the information contained in the issue and in the opinion of the other agent. We present results in a simple yet rich context where each agent uses a Boolean perceptron to state their opinion. If the update occurs with information asynchronously exchanged among pairs of agents, then the typical case, if the number of issues is kept small, is the evolution into a society torn by the emergence of factions with extreme opposite beliefs. This occurs even when seeking consensus with agents with opposite opinions. If the number of issues is large, the dynamics becomes trapped, the society does not evolve into factions and a distribution of moderate opinions is observed. The synchronous case is technically simpler and is studied by formulating the problem in terms of differential equations that describe the evolution of order parameters that measure the consensus between pairs of agents. We show that for a large number of issues and unidirectional information flow, global consensus is a fixed point; however, the approach to this consensus is glassy for large societies.

Opinion of hepatic transplant waiting list patients regarding split liver transplantation

Background. Split liver transplantation (SLT) increases organ supply for hepatic transplantation. Long-term patient survival and complication rates seem to be equivalent between orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) and SLT. There are controversies among transplant physicians due to an ethical dilemma between benefiting individual needs or those of society. Barshes and Goss (Am J Transplant 5:2047, 2005) demonstrated that the majority of adult liver transplant candidates are favorable to SLT. The aim of our study was to evaluate the opinions of patients at a Brazilian university hospital regarding SLT.Materials and Methods. A questionnaire with 14 questions was applied to 50 patients included in a hepatic transplant waiting list regarding SLT.Results. The overall attitudes of 66% of the participants were classified as utilitarian, 31% were classified as self-preserving, and 3% were undecided. Ninety-one percent of patients would be willing to share even if their expected survival after SLT was shorter than that with OLT. For 77% of patients, children must have priority over adults. However, 83% were unaware of the donors for pediatric transplantations.Conclusions. SLT is a consistent solution for organ demand despite controversies among transplant physicians. The present study demonstrated that most patients were favorable to SLT. In conclusion, attitudes toward graft sharing are not barriers to SLT.

Expert opinion as an instrument for assessing investment in primary education

Includes bibliography

Spirituality: Do teachers and students hold the same opinion?

Background:  Few studies have investigated potential differences between the opinions of educators and undergraduates regarding spirituality in patient care. Understanding these differences, could lead to better strategies for educational proposes. Purpose:  To compare the opinions of medical teachers (MTs) and medical students (MSs) regarding spirituality training in a Brazilian medical school. Methods:  A cross-sectional study was conducted. MTs and MSs filled out a questionnaire containing the Duke Religion Index, and questions regarding spirituality in clinical practice and at medical school. A comparison between early-curriculum MSs, late curriculum MSs and MTs was carried out. Chi-square (categorical) and Mann-Whitney (continuous/ordinal) tests were used. Results:  A total of 475 MSs and 44 MTs were evaluated. Results showed that MSs did not address spirituality as frequently as MTs (p<0.001), and that most participants did not feel prepared to address this issue, and believe that Brazilian medical schools are not giving all the required information in this field. Nevertheless, they believe MSs should be prepared to discuss these issues. Late-curriculum MSs believed that spirituality plays a more positive role in patient health (p=0.027), and were more prone to address this issue than early-curriculum MSs (p=0.023). Conclusion:  These findings revealed some of the challenges faced by spirituality medical training in Brazil, and differences between MTs and MSs regarding this issue. Further studies are needed to replicate these findings in other countries. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

The state under scrutiny: public opinion, stateness and government performance in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.