A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Current concepts in the pathogenesis of urea cycle disorders.

The common feature of urea cycle diseases (UCD) is a defect in ammonium elimination in liver, leading to hyperammonemia. This excess of circulating ammonium eventually reaches the central nervous system, where the main toxic effects of ammonium occur. These are reversible or irreversible, depending on the age of onset as well as the duration and the level of ammonium exposure. The brain is much more susceptible to the deleterious effects of ammonium during development than in adulthood, and surviving UCD patients may develop cortical and basal ganglia hypodensities, cortical atrophy, white matter atrophy or hypomyelination and ventricular dilatation. While for a long time, the mechanisms leading to these irreversible effects of ammonium exposure on the brain remained poorly understood, these last few years have brought new data showing in particular that ammonium exposure alters several amino acid pathways and neurotransmitter systems, cerebral energy, nitric oxide synthesis, axonal and dendritic growth, signal transduction pathways, as well as K(+) and water channels. All these effects of ammonium on CNS may eventually lead to energy deficit, oxidative stress and cell death. Recent work also proposed neuroprotective strategies, such as the use of NMDA receptor antagonists, nitric oxide inhibitors, creatine and acetyl-l-carnitine, to counteract the toxic effects of ammonium. Better understanding the pathophysiology of ammonium toxicity to the brain under UCD will allow the development of new strategies for neuroprotection.

Unfolding nature "in silico" : overcoming practical and metodological limitations of species distribution models

Abstract : The existence of a causal relationship between the spatial distribution of living organisms and their environment, in particular climate, has been long recognized and is the central principle of biogeography. In turn, this recognition has led scientists to the idea of using the climatic, topographic, edaphic and biotic characteristics of the environment to predict its potential suitability for a given species or biological community. In this thesis, my objective is to contribute to the development of methodological improvements in the field of species distribution modeling. More precisely, the objectives are to propose solutions to overcome limitations of species distribution models when applied to conservation biology issues, or when .used as an assessment tool of the potential impacts of global change. The first objective of my thesis is to contribute to evidence the potential of species distribution models for conservation-related applications. I present a methodology to generate pseudo-absences in order to overcome the frequent lack of reliable absence data. I also demonstrate, both theoretically (simulation-based) and practically (field-based), how species distribution models can be successfully used to model and sample rare species. Overall, the results of this first part of the thesis demonstrate the strong potential of species distribution models as a tool for practical applications in conservation biology. The second objective this thesis is to contribute to improve .projections of potential climate change impacts on species distributions, and in particular for mountain flora. I develop and a dynamic model, MIGCLIM, that allows the implementation of dispersal limitations into classic species distribution models and present an application of this model to two virtual species. Given that accounting for dispersal limitations requires information on seed dispersal, distances, a general methodology to classify species into broad dispersal types is also developed. Finally, the M~GCLIM model is applied to a large number of species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps. Overall, the results indicate that while dispersal limitations can have an important impact on the outcome of future projections of species distributions under climate change scenarios, estimating species threat levels (e.g. species extinction rates) for a mountainous areas of limited size (i.e. regional scale) can also be successfully achieved when considering dispersal as unlimited (i.e. ignoring dispersal limitations, which is easier from a practical point of view). Finally, I present the largest fine scale assessment of potential climate change impacts on mountain vegetation that has been carried-out to date. This assessment involves vegetation from 12 study areas distributed across all major western and central European mountain ranges. The results highlight that some mountain ranges (the Pyrenees and the Austrian Alps) are expected to be more affected by climate change than others (Norway and the Scottish Highlands). The results I obtain in this study also indicate that the threat levels projected by fine scale models are less severe than those derived from coarse scale models. This result suggests that some species could persist in small refugias that are not detected by coarse scale models. Résumé : L'existence d'une relation causale entre la répartition des espèces animales et végétales et leur environnement, en particulier le climat, a été mis en évidence depuis longtemps et est un des principes centraux en biogéographie. Ce lien a naturellement conduit à l'idée d'utiliser les caractéristiques climatiques, topographiques, édaphiques et biotiques de l'environnement afin d'en prédire la qualité pour une espèce ou une communauté. Dans ce travail de thèse, mon objectif est de contribuer au développement d'améliorations méthodologiques dans le domaine de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces dans le paysage. Plus précisément, les objectifs sont de proposer des solutions afin de surmonter certaines limitations des modèles de distribution d'espèces dans des applications pratiques de biologie de la conservation ou dans leur utilisation pour évaluer l'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur l'environnement. Le premier objectif majeur de mon travail est de contribuer à démontrer le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces pour des applications pratiques en biologie de la conservation. Je propose une méthode pour générer des pseudo-absences qui permet de surmonter le problème récurent du manque de données d'absences fiables. Je démontre aussi, de manière théorique (par simulation) et pratique (par échantillonnage de terrain), comment les modèles de distribution d'espèces peuvent être utilisés pour modéliser et améliorer l'échantillonnage des espèces rares. Ces résultats démontrent le potentiel des modèles de distribution d'espèces comme outils pour des applications de biologie de la conservation. Le deuxième objectif majeur de ce travail est de contribuer à améliorer les projections d'impacts potentiels des changements climatiques sur la flore, en particulier dans les zones de montagnes. Je développe un modèle dynamique de distribution appelé MigClim qui permet de tenir compte des limitations de dispersion dans les projections futures de distribution potentielle d'espèces, et teste son application sur deux espèces virtuelles. Vu que le fait de prendre en compte les limitations dues à la dispersion demande des données supplémentaires importantes (p.ex. la distance de dispersion des graines), ce travail propose aussi une méthode de classification simplifiée des espèces végétales dans de grands "types de disperseurs", ce qui permet ainsi de d'obtenir de bonnes approximations de distances de dispersions pour un grand nombre d'espèces. Finalement, j'applique aussi le modèle MIGCLIM à un grand nombre d'espèces de plantes dans une zone d'études des pré-Alpes vaudoises. Les résultats montrent que les limitations de dispersion peuvent avoir un impact considérable sur la distribution potentielle d'espèces prédites sous des scénarios de changements climatiques. Cependant, quand les modèles sont utilisés pour évaluer les taux d'extinction d'espèces dans des zones de montages de taille limitée (évaluation régionale), il est aussi possible d'obtenir de bonnes approximations en considérant la dispersion des espèces comme illimitée, ce qui est nettement plus simple d'un point dé vue pratique. Pour terminer je présente la plus grande évaluation à fine échelle d'impact potentiel des changements climatiques sur la flore des montagnes conduite à ce jour. Cette évaluation englobe 12 zones d'études réparties sur toutes les chaines de montages principales d'Europe occidentale et centrale. Les résultats montrent que certaines chaines de montagnes (les Pyrénées et les Alpes Autrichiennes) sont projetées comme plus sensibles aux changements climatiques que d'autres (les Alpes Scandinaves et les Highlands d'Ecosse). Les résultats obtenus montrent aussi que les modèles à échelle fine projettent des impacts de changement climatiques (p. ex. taux d'extinction d'espèces) moins sévères que les modèles à échelle large. Cela laisse supposer que les modèles a échelle fine sont capables de modéliser des micro-niches climatiques non-détectées par les modèles à échelle large.

Registries in rheumatological and musculoskeletal conditions. Paediatric Behçet's disease: an international cohort study of 110 patients. One-year follow-up data.

OBJECTIVE: To set-up an international cohort of patients suspected with Behçet's disease (BD). The cohort is aimed at defining an algorithm for definition of the disease in children. METHODS: International experts have defined the inclusion criteria as follows: recurrent oral aphthosis (ROA) plus one of following-genital ulceration, erythema nodosum, folliculitis, pustulous/acneiform lesions, positive pathergy test, uveitis, venous/arterial thrombosis and family history of BD. Onset of disease is <16 years, disease duration is ≤3 years, future follow-up duration is ≥4 years and informed consent is obtained. The expert committee has classified the included patients into: definite paediatric BD (PED-BD), probable PED-BD and no PED-BD. Statistical analysis is performed to compare the three groups of patients. Centres document their patients into a single database. RESULTS: At January 2010, 110 patients (56 males/54 females) have been included. Mean age at first symptom: 8.1 years (median 8.2 years). At inclusion, 38% had only one symptom associated with ROA, 31% had two and 31% had three or more symptoms. A total of 106 first evaluations have been done. Seventeen patients underwent the first-year evaluation, and 36 had no new symptoms, 12 had one and 9 had two. Experts have examined 48 files and classified 30 as definite and 18 as probable. Twenty-six patients classified as definite fulfilled the International Study Group criteria. Seventeen patients classified as probable did not meet the international criteria. CONCLUSION: The expert committee has classified the majority of patients in the BD group although they presented with few symptoms independently of BD classification criteria.

Pédiatrie 2. Génétique des épilepsies de l'enfant: Pour qui ? Comment? Pourquoi [Genetics of childhood epilepsies: for who? how? why?].

Recent advances in genetics led to significant improvement in the field of childhood epilepsies diagnosis and physiopathology. Genetic testing is indicated by geneticist who is himself guided by the pediatric neurological approach. In rare circumstance, genetic etiology affects the clinical management. Cost remains the main limitation. Those new genetic tools are the first step toward a better understanding of seizure mechanism and therefore more efficient treatments.

Numerical analysis of the impact of charcoal production on soil hydrological behavior, runoff response and erosion susceptibility

The impact of charcoal production on soil hydraulic properties, runoff response and erosion susceptibility were studied in both field and simulation experiments. Core and composite samples, from 12 randomly selected sites within the catchment of Kotokosu were taken from the 0-10 cm layer of a charcoal site soil (CSS) and adjacent field soils (AFS). These samples were used to determine saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat), bulk density, total porosity, soil texture and color. Infiltration, surface albedo and soil surface temperature were also measured in both CSS and AFS. Measured properties were used as entries in a rainfall runoff simulation experiment on a smooth (5 % slope) plot of 25 x 25 m grids with 10 cm resolutions. Typical rainfall intensities of the study watershed (high, moderate and low) were applied to five different combinations of Ks distributions that could be expected in this landscape. The results showed significantly (p < 0.01) higher flow characteristics of the soil under charcoal kilns (increase of 88 %). Infiltration was enhanced and runoff volume reduced significantly. The results showed runoff reduction of about 37 and 18 %, and runoff coefficient ranging from 0.47-0.75 and 0.04-0.39 or simulation based on high (200 mm h-1) and moderate (100 mm h-1) rainfall events over the CSS and AFS areas, respectively. Other potential impacts of charcoal production on watershed hydrology were described. The results presented, together with watershed measurements, when available, are expected to enhance understanding of the hydrological responses of ecosystems to indiscriminate charcoal production and related activities in this region.

A joint back calculation model for the imputation of the date of HIV infection in a prevalent cohort.

In studies of the natural history of HIV-1 infection, the time scale of primary interest is the time since infection. Unfortunately, this time is very often unknown for HIV infection and using the follow-up time instead of the time since infection is likely to provide biased results because of onset confounding. Laboratory markers such as the CD4 T-cell count carry important information concerning disease progression and can be used to predict the unknown date of infection. Previous work on this topic has made use of only one CD4 measurement or based the imputation on incident patients only. However, because of considerable intrinsic variability in CD4 levels and because incident cases are different from prevalent cases, back calculation based on only one CD4 determination per person or on characteristics of the incident sub-cohort may provide unreliable results. Therefore, we propose a methodology based on the repeated individual CD4 T-cells marker measurements that use both incident and prevalent cases to impute the unknown date of infection. Our approach uses joint modelling of the time since infection, the CD4 time path and the drop-out process. This methodology has been applied to estimate the CD4 slope and impute the unknown date of infection in HIV patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A procedure based on the comparison of different slope estimates is proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the imputation. Results of simulation studies indicated that the imputation procedure worked well, despite the intrinsic high volatility of the CD4 marker.

Universality of optimal measurements

We present optimal and minimal measurements on identical copies of an unknown state of a quantum bit when the quality of measuring strategies is quantified with the gain of information (Kullback-or mutual information-of probability distributions). We also show that the maximal gain of information occurs, among isotropic priors, when the state is known to be pure. Universality of optimal measurements follows from our results: using the fidelity or the gain of information, two different figures of merits, leads to exactly the same conclusions for isotropic distributions. We finally investigate the optimal capacity of N copies of an unknown state as a quantum channel of information.

Pediatric morphea (localized scleroderma): review of 136 patients.

BACKGROUND: Morphea is an autoimmune inflammatory sclerosing disorder that may cause permanent functional disability and disfigurement. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the clinical features of morphea in a large pediatric cohort. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective chart review of 136 pediatric patients with morphea from one center, 1989 to 2006. RESULTS: Most children showed linear morphea, with a disproportionately high number of Caucasian and female patients. Two patients with rapidly progressing generalized or extensive linear morphea and arthralgias developed restrictive pulmonary disease. Initial oral corticosteroid treatment and long-term methotrexate administration stabilized and/or led to disease improvement in most patients with aggressive disease. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective analysis, relatively small sample size, and risk of a selected referral population to the single site are limitations. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest an increased prevalence of morphea in Caucasian girls, and support methotrexate as treatment for problematic forms. Visceral manifestations rarely occur; the presence of progressive problematic cutaneous disease and arthralgias should trigger closer patient monitoring.

De novo LMNA mutations cause a new form of congenital muscular dystrophy.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a new entity of congenital muscular dystrophies caused by de novo LMNA mutations. METHODS: Fifteen patients presenting with a myopathy of onset in the first year of life were subjected to neurological and genetic evaluation. Histopathological and immunohistochemical analyses were performed for all patients. RESULTS: The 15 patients presented with muscle weakness in the first year of life, and all had de novo heterozygous LMNA mutations. Three of them had severe early-onset disease, no motor development, and the rest experienced development of a "dropped head" syndrome phenotype. Despite variable severity, there was a consistent clinical pattern. Patients typically presented with selective axial weakness and wasting of the cervicoaxial muscles. Limb involvement was predominantly proximal in upper extremities and distal in lower extremities. Talipes feet and a rigid spine with thoracic lordosis developed early. Proximal contractures appeared later, most often in lower limbs, sparing the elbows. Ten children required ventilatory support, three continuously through tracheotomy. Cardiac arrhythmias were observed in four of the oldest patients but were symptomatic only in one. Creatine kinase levels were mild to moderately increased. Muscle biopsies showed dystrophic changes in nine children and nonspecific myopathic changes in the remaining. Markedly atrophic fibers were common, most often type 1, and a few patients showed positive inflammatory markers. INTERPRETATION: The LMNA mutations identified appear to correlate with a relatively severe phenotype. Our results further broaden the spectrum of laminopathies and define a new disease entity that we suggest is best classified as a congenital muscular dystrophy (LMNA-related congenital muscular dystrophy, or L-CMD).

International periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis, cervical adenitis syndrome cohort: description of distinct phenotypes in 301 patients.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to describe the clinical features of periodic fever, aphthous stomatitis, pharyngitis and cervical adenitis (PFAPA) and identify distinct phenotypes in a large cohort of patients from different countries. METHODS: We established a web-based multicentre cohort through an international collaboration within the periodic fevers working party of the Pediatric Rheumatology European Society (PReS). The inclusion criterion was a diagnosis of PFAPA given by an experienced paediatric rheumatologist participating in an international working group on periodic fever syndromes. RESULTS: Of the 301 patients included from the 15 centres, 271 had pharyngitis, 236 cervical adenitis, 171 oral aphthosis and 132 with all three clinical features. A total of 228 patients presented with additional symptoms (131 gastrointestinal symptoms, 86 arthralgias and/or myalgias, 36 skin rashes, 8 neurological symptoms). Thirty-one patients had disease onset after 5 years and they reported more additional symptoms. A positive family history for recurrent fever or recurrent tonsillitis was found in 81 patients (26.9%). Genetic testing for monogenic periodic fever syndromes was performed on 111 patients, who reported fewer occurrences of oral aphthosis or additional symptoms. Twenty-four patients reported symptoms (oral aphthosis and malaise) outside the flares. The CRP was >50 mg/l in the majority (131/190) of the patients tested during the fever. CONCLUSION: We describe the largest cohort of PFAPA patients presented so far. We confirm that PFAPA may present with varied clinical manifestations and we show the limitations of the commonly used diagnostic criteria. Based on detailed analysis of this cohort, a consensus definition of PFAPA with better-defined criteria should be proposed.

A genomewide scan for early-onset coronary artery disease in 438 families: the GENECARD Study.

A family history of coronary artery disease (CAD), especially when the disease occurs at a young age, is a potent risk factor for CAD. DNA collection in families in which two or more siblings are affected at an early age allows identification of genetic factors for CAD by linkage analysis. We performed a genomewide scan in 1,168 individuals from 438 families, including 493 affected sibling pairs with documented onset of CAD before 51 years of age in men and before 56 years of age in women. We prospectively defined three phenotypic subsets of families: (1) acute coronary syndrome in two or more siblings; (2) absence of type 2 diabetes in all affected siblings; and (3) atherogenic dyslipidemia in any one sibling. Genotypes were analyzed for 395 microsatellite markers. Regions were defined as providing evidence for linkage if they provided parametric two-point LOD scores >1.5, together with nonparametric multipoint LOD scores >1.0. Regions on chromosomes 3q13 (multipoint LOD = 3.3; empirical P value <.001) and 5q31 (multipoint LOD = 1.4; empirical P value <.081) met these criteria in the entire data set, and regions on chromosomes 1q25, 3q13, 7p14, and 19p13 met these criteria in one or more of the subsets. Two regions, 3q13 and 1q25, met the criteria for genomewide significance. We have identified a region on chromosome 3q13 that is linked to early-onset CAD, as well as additional regions of interest that will require further analysis. These data provide initial areas of the human genome where further investigation may reveal susceptibility genes for early-onset CAD.

Appropriateness of colonoscopy in Europe (EPAGE II). Functional bowel disorders: pain, constipation and bloating.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: To summarize the published literature on assessment of appropriateness of colonoscopy for the investigation of functional bowel symptoms, and report appropriateness criteria developed by an expert panel, the 2008 European Panel on the Appropriateness of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, EPAGE II. METHODS: A systematic search of guidelines, systematic reviews and primary studies regarding the evaluation and management of functional bowel symptoms was performed. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was applied to develop appropriateness criteria for colonoscopy for these conditions. RESULTS: Much of the evidence for use of colonoscopy in evaluation of chronic abdominal pain, and/or constipation and/or abdominal bloating is modest. Major limitations include small numbers of patients and lack of adequate characterization of these patients. Large community-based follow-up studies are needed to enable better definition of the natural history of patients with functional bowel disorders. Guidelines stress that alarm features ("red flags"), such as rectal bleeding, anemia, weight loss, nocturnal symptoms, family history of colon cancer, age of onset > 50 years, and recent onset of symptoms should all lead to careful evaluation before a diagnosis of functional bowel disorder is made. EPAGE II assessed these symptoms by means of 12 clinical scenarios, rating colonoscopy as appropriate, uncertain and inappropriate in 42 % (5/12), 25 % (3/12), and 33 % (4/12) of these, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence to support the use of colonoscopy in the evaluation of patients with functional bowel disorders and no alarm features is lacking. These patients have no increased risk of colon cancer and thus advice on screening for this is not different from that for the general population. EPAGE II criteria, available online (http://www.epage.ch), consider colonoscopy appropriate in patients of > 50 years with chronic or new-onset bowel disturbances, but not in patients with isolated chronic abdominal pain.